Three of the Twins' Top Prospects Done for the Year

[DocBauer]

Very, very hopeful Lewis' rehab and healing will be outstanding and he will be ready to resume his career very quickly and have the kind of career he's capable of and everyone hopes/believes he can.

Also very, very hopeful Rodriguez will be ready early in 2023 to resume his development. Kid looks like might be special.

I'm very torn on Canterino. You just never want to see anyone injured, and you never want to see anyone have to go through surgery. But something wasn't right going back to last season. And I totally understand and agree that surgery should always be the final resort if rest and rehab don't work first. But I'm glad he's having the surgery. His arm is probably every bit as good and electric as Duran's. But he had zero chance at a career the way things were going. Now, while there are never guarantees, a healthy rehab can allow him to pursue his career again. While he's going to lose time, he will still have the opportunity to become a good/great pitcher in the rotation or the pen. 

Debuting at 26yo stinks due to said lost time. But it doesn't mean he can't still have a nice career and fulfill his dreams. And a chance to do that is better than no chance. In retrospect, you almost wonder if it shouldn't have happened sooner, but hindsight is just that. Here's hoping for a healthy and speedy recovery for him.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Heezy1323 said:

I understand the frustration with injuries on the Twins. I understand the tendency to look for systems or people to blame. But the unfortunate truth is, it just doesn't work like that. 

The WWII analogy would be great, if baseball players were made from identical parts on an assembly line and reacted exactly the same way to the same adverse conditions. 

But the challenge of medicine, sports science/performance and similar fields is that there are hundreds, probably thousands of unknowns. And not just unknowns that exist because they haven't been studied- unknowns that cannot possibly be known under any circumstances. 

Is it possible that the medical and/or training staff of the Twins is underperforming? Sure, I suppose that's possible. I am not a Twins physician, but I know those who are. They are admirable docs, among the brightest in the field. 

Isn't it also possible that there is bad luck involved? Or that the scouting department is choosing to draft or trade for players who are prone to injury? Or not weighting the input from the medical team heavily enough? 

Or, is it possible… juuuuuuuuust possible, that this stuff is really frickin' hard. And despite having brilliant people working tremendously hard to solve these types of issues- some injuries are inevitable. 

I'm not trying to carry water for the Twins or anyone/anything else here. I have no vested interest in others' opinions of Twins or their team physicians. But I am familiar with the challenges of solving these types of problems- I do it on a daily basis. It's hard. An in my opinion, assuming it is due to incompetence undersells the difficulty of it by a substantial margin.

 

You reacted strongly to just one of the possibilities I laid out, and FWIW that's the one I consider to be least likely as the major source of shortfall relative to other teams.  I listed all that came to mind, simply for completeness.

Apart from that, I referred to "medical approach", while you extrapolated to "incompetence", which grossly distorts my (emerging) view on the subject.  Maybe I used an additional turn of phrase that was misleading that way.

While no one claims that players are machines, the WW II analogy was based on the idea that managers of any chaotic and stressful process have to make decisions under fire using incomplete information, and despite extreme uniqueness and variability in individual cases, forecasting methods over large numbers tend to emerge from the better organizations.  It's just too critical not to.  The military was an early practitioner of what we consider modern analytics.  Indeed, the final sentence of that analogy paragraph essentially takes the medical staff off the hook.

Said another way, the FO may be dealing the development staff and the medical staff a losing hand.

Said still another way, it's a mantra of those in systems analysis for failure to be only rarely due to individuals, and more often to the process.

I am inclined at the moment to believe that the team's analytic forecasts are not nearly as solid as the FO believes, and that they are placing bets on players that other teams' FOs are saying in effect "sure, you can have him," whether during the draft process, or when acquiring FA, or when considering trades.  You can see it directly in trades for a non-workhorse (Gray, in recent seasons) and an acute injury risk (Paddack), or signings of Bundy and Archer whom they surely understood would tax the bullpen because they themselves should not be overtaxed, or drafting Prielipp who is coming off surgery and may or may not be the same as before. 

I don't think it's even arguable whether the FalVine regime is consciously going against the grain where it comes to injury risk.  (I named only pitchers, above, but signing Buxton to guaranteed money would be another instance, granting that the marketing circumstances may have dictated leaning toward that decision.)  My only question at this point is whether it's a reasonable calculation that may or may not work, or is reckless.

I, like virtually everyone else, appreciate the insights you bring that few of us are qualified to come up with.

[Vagnavs]

Lewis a real shame, Hope is back soon and is the last injury of his career... (I don't know what they were thinking having him in centerfield.). Hopefully he will be utilized just in the infield

[Heezy1323]

17 hours ago, ashbury said:

You reacted strongly to just one of the possibilities I laid out, and FWIW that's the one I consider to be least likely as the major source of shortfall relative to other teams.  I listed all that came to mind, simply for completeness.

Apart from that, I referred to "medical approach", while you extrapolated to "incompetence", which grossly distorts my (emerging) view on the subject.  Maybe I used an additional turn of phrase that was misleading that way.

While no one claims that players are machines, the WW II analogy was based on the idea that managers of any chaotic and stressful process have to make decisions under fire using incomplete information, and despite extreme uniqueness and variability in individual cases, forecasting methods over large numbers tend to emerge from the better organizations.  It's just too critical not to.  The military was an early practitioner of what we consider modern analytics.  Indeed, the final sentence of that analogy paragraph essentially takes the medical staff off the hook.

Said another way, the FO may be dealing the development staff and the medical staff a losing hand.

Said still another way, it's a mantra of those in systems analysis for failure to be only rarely due to individuals, and more often to the process.

I am inclined at the moment to believe that the team's analytic forecasts are not nearly as solid as the FO believes, and that they are placing bets on players that other teams' FOs are saying in effect "sure, you can have him," whether during the draft process, or when acquiring FA, or when considering trades.  You can see it directly in trades for a non-workhorse (Gray, in recent seasons) and an acute injury risk (Paddack), or signings of Bundy and Archer whom they surely understood would tax the bullpen because they themselves should not be overtaxed, or drafting Prielipp who is coming off surgery and may or may not be the same as before. 

I don't think it's even arguable whether the FalVine regime is consciously going against the grain where it comes to injury risk.  (I named only pitchers, above, but signing Buxton to guaranteed money would be another instance, granting that the marketing circumstances may have dictated leaning toward that decision.)  My only question at this point is whether it's a reasonable calculation that may or may not work, or is reckless.

I, like virtually everyone else, appreciate the insights you bring that few of us are qualified to come up with.

I appreciate your further explanation. My response was perhaps a bit unfair, in that there were a few posts that questioned the aptitude of the medical staff, and I just chose yours to quote. My response was probably a more generally directed response to that notion, rather than a specific retort to your post. 

IMO your concerns are valid, and also highlight the incredibly complex nature of this type of decision-making. These are tough problems to solve. I would argue that they are even tough problems to 'measure' in any consistent or meaningful way, much less 'solve'. Thanks for your response.

[MTV]

If the Twins want to seal the Central for next year they’ll have to have enough strong Veterans ahead of these Rookies. Don’t count on Kirilloff or Larnach to be healthy all year, have serious reinforcements in the pitching staff, and be ready to sign a serious Catcher and Shortstop in Free Agency. Learn from Andrelton Simmons and chase after guys who you can seriously trust.

[Hrbowski]

On 8/11/2022 at 1:50 PM, ashbury said:

There.  You.  Go.  "See that guy?  We want a car-load of him."

(Not that that necessarily is the missing piece to the solution, but it's a form of thinking I sure hope they are doing already.)

The latest research in player development right now suggests that the most important factors relating to pitcher injuries are biomechanics and recovery process between throwing. From what I've heard from people in the industry is that the Twins are way behind on this...

[jkcarew]

Most worried about Kirilloff. The Twins need him in 2023 and he needs to HIT. He doesn’t offer much value beyond his hit tool. And there’s not an overwhelming amount of evidence that he’s going to be a really good hitter at the major-league level. I think he has two issues…his approach, and now surgery on the wrist. What seemed very likely 2 years ago, now seems very, very iffy.

[ashbury]

On 8/13/2022 at 9:15 AM, Hrbowski said:

The latest research in player development right now suggests that the most important factors relating to pitcher injuries are biomechanics and recovery process between throwing. From what I've heard from people in the industry is that the Twins are way behind on this...

Twins alumnus Doctor Mike Marshall was a proponent of biomechanics way back when he pitched, and claimed that it was the secret to his being able to pitch a hundred games a season.  Who knows if his theories really bore scrutiny and he was shunned by the baseball establishment (due to his brash/cocky personality as much as to the merits of his ideas IMO).  I'm sure there has been a lot of progress since his day.  He's 78 now but I bet would welcome a chance to say I Told You So.