Three of the Twins' Top Prospects Done for the Year

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's farm system ranks in the middle of the pack compared to the rest of baseball. That makes this year's key prospect injuries even tougher to withstand.

 

Injuries impact every farm system, but the Twins have had three of their top-10 prospects suffer season-ending injuries. All three players should return over the next year with various timelines to impact the big-league level. 

Matt Canterino, SP
Injury: Tommy John surgery
Expected Return: Fall 2023
On Wednesday, it was announced that Matt Canterino would undergo Tommy John surgery which usually has a 12-month recovery timeline. Canterino has missed significant time throughout his professional career, and there's hope that this surgery will be able to solve those issues. In three minor league seasons, he has posted a 1.48 ERA with 13.8 K/9, but injuries have limited him to 85 innings. Canterino has a chance to get into game action at the end of 2023, and the Twins have to decide whether or not to add him to the 40-man roster before this winter's Rule 5 Draft. 

Royce Lewis, SS/OF
Injury: ACL surgery
Expected Return: June 2023
Lewis has already gone through this surgery and has shown a positive mindset throughout the process. Last month, he was already ahead of schedule in his rehab, so that is a positive sign for when he may return in 2023. ACL surgery is typically a 12-month recovery, but Lewis told MLB.com that he hopes to be ready in 10-11 months. During his debut, Lewis was fantastic as he hit .300/.317/.550 (.867) with four doubles and two home runs. What made it even more impressive was the fact Lewis hadn't appeared in a game throughout the 2020 or 2021 seasons. At Twins Daily, Lewis is still considered the organization's top prospect, so his health is critical to the team's future success. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Injury: Knee surgery
Expected Return: Spring 2023
Rodriguez was in the midst of a breakout season at Low-A before suffering a knee injury on a slide. In 47 games, he hit .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with five doubles, three triples, and nine home runs. He did all of this while being over two years younger than the average age of the competition in the Florida State League. Throughout the season, he only faced younger pitchers in four plate appearances. His surgery puts him on track to be back on the field early next season, so he will still be young for the FSL if the team sends him back to that level. 

Injuries have also impacted other young players that have graduated from prospect lists. Alex Kirilloff, one of the team's former top prospects, is out for the year after having wrist surgery. His wrist had been bothering him over the last two seasons, so the hope is this will put him back on track for 2023. Not every prospect pans out at the big-league level, but the Twins are hoping all of these players have healthy careers moving forward. 

Which recovery worries you the most? Who will be back earlier than expected? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[dxpavelka]

Farm system rankings are very subjective.  I've seen our ranked in the middle and I've seen it ranked top 10. 

[Trov]

I would say Canterino worries me the most.  Not because it is TJ, as many guys recover from it, but he has had many arm issues and Rice guys have history of that. Maybe he comes back and does just fine, but he will start getting passed up on depth charts and will need to prove himself much faster before he starts getting bounced around the league on waiver claims.

Lewis will be given every chance to show he is back, and as long as he can hit there will be a place for him.  Rodriguez is still very young and will be given plenty of time to recover too.  Also he will be known for the bat as well and at minimum there is the DH roll he can find if he can keep swinging. 

[Karbo]

It seems like ever since  the covid canceled season, they have had a lot of trouble keeping top prospects healthy. Is this coincidence or a trend?

[roger]

Do we know the extent of Rodriguez' knee injury?  Did it require surgery?

Have believed Canterino is special.  Damn dirty shame, but must agree that his future is so questionable.

Does anyone have information on how injuries have been in other organizations?  Are they as bad?  Do people believe that especially with pitchers, the 2020 year off is part of the cause?

[Tibs]

Canterino easily. The possibility of him being an impact arm for the Twins just went way down. It was already in doubt so seems pretty unlikely he'll be a SP for the Twins. If everything goes well he debuts in the middle of his age 26 season in the bullpen.

A second ACL surgery sucks, but Lewis showed he clearly has the potential to be a good MLB player. Knee injuries in baseball just don't seem to be in the same category as elbow/shoulder injuries.

I'm more concerned with Kirilloff's wrist surgery than Lewis or Rodriguez.

[Rosterman]

The pain is keeping these guys on the 40-man, and not having them for a good part of nexzt season. 

Lewis will still have to play a significant amount of time in the minors, and the Twins will need to hope Corea stays, or do a patch job with folks like Palacios in the mix.

Canterino won't be back until sometime next season and the Twins will likely limit his innings, if not put him in relief situations. Chances are he will still be at AA ball. Then most of 2024 at AAA ball. If they don't add him to the roster, anotehr team might grabn him (like they did Burdi) but be forced to play him sooner rather than later (and could have the consequences that happened when the Pirates did this with Burdi). 

I have no trouble keeping an arm or player on the 40-man who will not produce in 2023 for the major league club.

But this year the Twins have Balazovic, Henriquez, Dobnak, Maeda, Strotman, Enlow all NOT doing anything for the Big League Club. I can understand Maeda being carried. And he might till be back in September. But the hopes we had for the others is so quickly disappearing and doubtful about who should come back in 2023.

And with the case of Rodriguez, you lose minor league time, and fall back. Possibly quickly passed, or you become a Baddoo situation where a team might grab you before the Twins decide to elevate you to the roster, waiting for a continued advance thru the minors. That is still a couple of seasons away, but.....

[RpR]

Twins need to pick-up some better than average veterans next year and not shoot-in-the-dark that maybe rookies will be not only good enough, but healthy enough to be more than guest appearances.

[Road trip]

21 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

 

Lewis will still have to play a significant amount of time in the minors, and the Twins will need to hope Corea stays, or do a patch job with folks like Palacios in the mix.

 

I'm not certain this is the case, assuming Lewis has a full recovery and is physically sound.  He will be 24 next year, and while he doesn't have a normal amount of game time above High A  that is largely due to injuries and the lost Covid minor league season.  He looked very capable this year at both AAA and the majors.  Had he not gotten hurt, he very possibly would have been up for good this year.  The Twins will likely be somewhat conservative and will start Lewis at AAA next year, but if he looks solid after 30 or so games I suspect they won't hesitate to bring him to the majors again.  Whether he can stay at shortstop is unknown, especially after another knee injury.  However is bat, glove, and arm will play somewhere.

[puckstopper1]

Not that I want him to be injured, but the way Balazovic has pitched this season, I am kind of hoping that he is...

Also - what is the latest on Martin.  When his injury first happened it was reported as not too serious, but he has been out 6+ weeks...

[nicksaviking]

37 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I'm not certain this is the case, assuming Lewis has a full recovery and is physically sound.  He will be 24 next year, and while he doesn't have a normal amount of game time above High A  that is largely due to injuries and the lost Covid minor league season.  He looked very capable this year at both AAA and the majors.  Had he not gotten hurt, he very possibly would have been up for good this year.  The Twins will likely be somewhat conservative and will start Lewis at AAA next year, but if he looks solid after 30 or so games I suspect they won't hesitate to bring him to the majors again.  Whether he can stay at shortstop is unknown, especially after another knee injury.  However is bat, glove, and arm will play somewhere.

Yeah, Lewis was already in this exact same spot and spent minimal time in the minors after his last injury. I'm not sure why it would be a longer stay next year.

Similar things happened with Kirilloff and Sano; the good news is the Twins have a track record of offensive prospects not being derailed from the majors very long when they have season ending injuries.

[jimbo92107]

I'm most concerned about Kirilloff. His wrist issues are definitely career-threatening. Such a good hitter, and he appeared to be a savvy ballplayer, too. He was supposed to be a stalwart bat in the middle of the order for about ten years. Now, who knows...

[mikelink45]

I am concerned that we wait too long for surgeries.  Don't we have a medical staff that can say - get the surgery now so you can get back on the field sooner?  We do seem to have a lot of injuries - but how does it compare to other teams. 

To answer my own question - "MLB Injury Data Summary: The Tampa Bay Rays (1211 games missed by players due to injury) and Cincinnati Reds (1176) lead the league in total games missed by players to injuries and the injured list."  https://www.mangameslost.com/category/mlb/  

That does not include prospects. 

Spotrac has us number 12 in the league when measured by the value of contracts for days lost.   "https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/

In terms of days lost we are fourth behind the Reds, Rays, and Cubs with 1440.  We are second with 28 players missing time - just behind the Reds.  

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am concerned that we wait too long for surgeries.  Don't we have a medical staff that can say - get the surgery now so you can get back on the field sooner?  We do seem to have a lot of injuries - but how does it compare to other teams. 

To answer my own question - "MLB Injury Data Summary: The Tampa Bay Rays (1211 games missed by players due to injury) and Cincinnati Reds (1176) lead the league in total games missed by players to injuries and the injured list."  https://www.mangameslost.com/category/mlb/  

That does not include prospects. 

Spotrac has us number 12 in the league when measured by the value of contracts for days lost.   "https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/

In terms of days lost we are fourth behind the Reds, Rays, and Cubs with 1440.  We are second with 28 players missing time - just behind the Reds.  

This seems like good information, but I'm not sure what the correct measurement ought to be.  As you point out, an MLB injury summary goes only so far, as it fails to take into account if a "prospect pipeline" is more injury prone than most and thus the output is a fraction of what it otherwise ought to be.  As for the MLB part, value of contract can be misleading, when young cheap talent like Kirilloff and Lewis make it seem like it's no big loss.  And then there is the question of, not strictly time lost, but reduced effectiveness by a formerly elite player.  These are all hard to measure and boil down to a single number for ranking, but they matter in their individual and varying ways.

I think the FO has to be asking big, big questions of itself during the off-season - no, preferably, now.  It just feels like there is a gap in their process, either that they are behind other teams in forecasting which prospects (or veterans) are less prone to injury, or that they are accurate enough but just undervaluing having more iron men (I think they really believe it's their Secret Sauce as an organization to ride out injuries better than others and save money in the process), or that players come into the system about as injury prone as any other team but something in the development process is different and leaving the players open to catastrophe, or something in the medical approach is letting small things snowball into big injuries.

There is the (perhaps apocryphal) story taught in business schools, from WWII, of aircraft getting extra armoring when they would come back with bullet holes after aerial dogfights, and they still were losing planes, and finally it occurred to the maintenance guys to put the armor plate where the bullet holes weren't - because that was where the planes that didn't come back were getting hit.  It somehow feels like this with our Twins - that everyone is basically competent at their individual jobs and they keep fixing the perceived problems as they arise, but there is some missing insight about the whole Big Picture of injuries.

[Dave The Dastardly]

50 minutes ago, ashbury said:

This seems like good information, but I'm not sure what the correct measurement ought to be.  As you point out, an MLB injury summary goes only so far, as it fails to take into account if a "prospect pipeline" is more injury prone than most and thus the output is a fraction of what it otherwise ought to be.  As for the MLB part, value of contract can be misleading, when young cheap talent like Kirilloff and Lewis make it seem like it's no big loss.

I think the FO has to be asking big, big questions of itself during the off-season - no, preferably, now.  It just feels like there is a gap in their process, either that they are behind other teams in forecasting which prospects (or veterans) are less prone to injury, or that they are accurate enough but just undervaluing having more iron men, or that players come into the system about as injury prone as any other team but something in the development process is different and leaving the players open to catastrophe, or something in the medical approach is letting small things snowball into big injuries.

There is the (perhaps apocryphal) story taught in business schools from WWII, of aircraft getting extra armoring when they would come back with bullet holes after aerial dogfights, and they still were losing planes, and finally it occurred to the maintenance guys to armor plate where the bullet holes weren't - because that was where the planes that didn't come back were getting hit.  It somehow feels like this with our Twins - that everyone is basically competent at their individual jobs and they keep fixing the perceived problems as they arise, but there is some missing insight about the whole Big Picture of injuries.

Love the WW II example. Maybe we should be looking at the number of pitches and innings thrown by the guys who don't need Tommy John.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I find the Kirilloff injury most concerning as the proposed surgery is relatively new (as heard through the grapevine) and therefore more high risk.

[bean5302]

 

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The pain is keeping these guys on the 40-man, and not having them for a good part of nexzt season...

As soon as spring training starts up, they'll move to the 60 day IL and be removed from the 40 man roster.

Side note: Lewis is an interesting case at this point. Apparently, his doctors have him on an aggressive return path of as quick as 10 months, which could see him on the field just a couple weeks into the start of next year. If his quick recovery continues, I don't think the Twins will put him on the 60 day IL.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Road trip said:

I'm not certain this is the case, assuming Lewis has a full recovery and is physically sound.  He will be 24 next year, and while he doesn't have a normal amount of game time above High A  that is largely due to injuries and the lost Covid minor league season.  He looked very capable this year at both AAA and the majors.  Had he not gotten hurt, he very possibly would have been up for good this year.  The Twins will likely be somewhat conservative and will start Lewis at AAA next year, but if he looks solid after 30 or so games I suspect they won't hesitate to bring him to the majors again.  Whether he can stay at shortstop is unknown, especially after another knee injury.  However is bat, glove, and arm will play somewhere.

Agreed, including that he would have been up for good. It's hard to think Lewis will be healthy enough to start spring training and the season in the normal schedule. I could see them focusing on extended spring training for rehab and then not even needing a full 30 games in AAA once he is ready to be activated. I don't know the service time rules well, but with him being on the MLB IL, it seems less likely that they'd want to/be able to play that game.  

[IndianaTwin]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

As soon as spring training starts up, they'll move to the 60 day IL and be removed from the 40 man roster.

Side note: Lewis is an interesting case at this point. Apparently, his doctors have him on an aggressive return path of as quick as 10 months, which could see him on the field just a couple weeks into the start of next year. If his quick recovery continues, I don't think the Twins will put him on the 60 day IL.

The bigger issue with the 40-man is that they take up spots in the off season. If several offseason spots are used by guys who will miss substantial time, it means they start spring training with only 35-37 (or whatever) guys from the 40-man who are available on Opening Day.*

*Capitalized in noting that this should be a national holiday. 

[ashbury]

30 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Love the WW II example. Maybe we should be looking at the number of pitches and innings thrown by the guys who don't need Tommy John.

There.  You.  Go.  "See that guy?  We want a car-load of him."

(Not that that necessarily is the missing piece to the solution, but it's a form of thinking I sure hope they are doing already.)

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

The bigger issue with the 40-man is that they take up spots in the off season. If several offseason spots are used by guys who will miss substantial time, it means they start spring training with only 35-37 (or whatever) guys from the 40-man who are available on Opening Day.*

*Capitalized in noting that this should be a national holiday. 

It's definitely a big concern.  It also explains why teams are fine with letting the last several FA signings occur during spring training when the 60-day opens back up.  Correa, Smith and Archer were like that, I believe.  They get back up to 40 pretty quickly, and not simply with roster-filler no other team would want.

Regarding Opening Day, as a newcomer in 1978 it took me a while to learn that in Minnesota that phrase has a widely understood double meaning, since it pertains to fishing and/or hunting too.  In fact for possibly a majority of people in the state it's the latter meaning that's understood first.

[IndianaTwin]

18 minutes ago, ashbury said:

It's definitely a big concern.  It also explains why teams are fine with letting the last several FA signings occur during spring training when the 60-day opens back up.  Correa, Smith and Archer were like that, I believe.  They get back up to 40 pretty quickly, and not simply with roster-filler no other team would want.

Regarding Opening Day, as a newcomer in 1978 it took me a while to learn that in Minnesota that phrase has a widely understood double meaning, since it pertains to fishing and/or hunting too.  In fact for possibly a majority of people in the state it's the latter meaning that's understood first.

Yeah, after my brother moved to Pennsylvania, he had to get used to his kids not being in school the Monday after Thanksgiving, because it was the opening of hunting season. When I asked if it was because of the worry of too many kids being absent, he said, "No. The teachers."

[bean5302]

I went through the 40 man roster projection in the last couple days on a thread around here somewhere. I don't see any crunches.

[Original_JB]

59 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

As soon as spring training starts up, they'll move to the 60 day IL and be removed from the 40 man roster.

Side note: Lewis is an interesting case at this point. Apparently, his doctors have him on an aggressive return path of as quick as 10 months, which could see him on the field just a couple weeks into the start of next year. If his quick recovery continues, I don't think the Twins will put him on the 60 day IL.

Where did he have the surgery done? I know Tria does a 'fast track' style of rehab where you start PT (even for an ACL replacement) just days after the surgery, whereas TC Ortho tends to go with a 6 week immobilization then starting rehab/PT.

[bean5302]

Just now, Original_JB said:

Where did he have the surgery done? I know Tria does a 'fast track' style of rehab where you start PT (even for an ACL replacement) just days after the surgery, whereas TC Ortho tends to go with a 6 week immobilization then starting rehab/PT.

Lewis was walking 3 weeks after surgery. The surgery was non-standard as they elected to insert a brace to reinforce the joint and Lewis has the procedure performed in Dallas. Not sure the name of the place.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, Lewis was already in this exact same spot and spent minimal time in the minors after his last injury. I'm not sure why it would be a longer stay next year.

Similar things happened with Kirilloff and Sano; the good news is the Twins have a track record of offensive prospects not being derailed from the majors very long when they have season ending injuries.

The hard part with him and others this year, is if he is Plan A at whatever position, lets say SS you have to have a fairly solid plan B, because if he starts out real slow or overwhelmed you either have to ride that out and hope he turns like Miranda did, or if he starts out good and goes the other way like Larnach for example you have to have somebody pretty competent to replace him.

IMO the best position for him next year is to start in AAA and force his way up, or give him Gordon's utility position and get him as many starts as he deserves and if he forces his way into the lineup like Arraez has, well that is wonderful problem to have.

[bean5302]

In my opinion, plan A is Royce Lewis as the starting shortstop next year with Jermaine Palacios as his backup. There's no more kid glove time for Lewis. He needs to play.

[gman]

This has been a big year for injuries for both key players as well as prospects. It would really be nice to see this team with all its best major leaguers and soon to be's playing at the top of their game injury free. Its easier to count the players not injured than injured and still a third of the season to go.

[Heezy1323]

2 hours ago, Original_JB said:

Where did he have the surgery done? I know Tria does a 'fast track' style of rehab where you start PT (even for an ACL replacement) just days after the surgery, whereas TC Ortho tends to go with a 6 week immobilization then starting rehab/PT.

I can assure you this is not the case. 

[Heezy1323]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

This seems like good information, but I'm not sure what the correct measurement ought to be.  As you point out, an MLB injury summary goes only so far, as it fails to take into account if a "prospect pipeline" is more injury prone than most and thus the output is a fraction of what it otherwise ought to be.  As for the MLB part, value of contract can be misleading, when young cheap talent like Kirilloff and Lewis make it seem like it's no big loss.  And then there is the question of, not strictly time lost, but reduced effectiveness by a formerly elite player.  These are all hard to measure and boil down to a single number for ranking, but they matter in their individual and varying ways.

I think the FO has to be asking big, big questions of itself during the off-season - no, preferably, now.  It just feels like there is a gap in their process, either that they are behind other teams in forecasting which prospects (or veterans) are less prone to injury, or that they are accurate enough but just undervaluing having more iron men (I think they really believe it's their Secret Sauce as an organization to ride out injuries better than others and save money in the process), or that players come into the system about as injury prone as any other team but something in the development process is different and leaving the players open to catastrophe, or something in the medical approach is letting small things snowball into big injuries.

There is the (perhaps apocryphal) story taught in business schools, from WWII, of aircraft getting extra armoring when they would come back with bullet holes after aerial dogfights, and they still were losing planes, and finally it occurred to the maintenance guys to put the armor plate where the bullet holes weren't - because that was where the planes that didn't come back were getting hit.  It somehow feels like this with our Twins - that everyone is basically competent at their individual jobs and they keep fixing the perceived problems as they arise, but there is some missing insight about the whole Big Picture of injuries.

I understand the frustration with injuries on the Twins. I understand the tendency to look for systems or people to blame. But the unfortunate truth is, it just doesn't work like that. 

The WWII analogy would be great, if baseball players were made from identical parts on an assembly line and reacted exactly the same way to the same adverse conditions. 

But the challenge of medicine, sports science/performance and similar fields is that there are hundreds, probably thousands of unknowns. And not just unknowns that exist because they haven't been studied- unknowns that cannot possibly be known under any circumstances. 

Is it possible that the medical and/or training staff of the Twins is underperforming? Sure, I suppose that's possible. I am not a Twins physician, but I know those who are. They are admirable docs, among the brightest in the field. 

Isn't it also possible that there is bad luck involved? Or that the scouting department is choosing to draft or trade for players who are prone to injury? Or not weighting the input from the medical team heavily enough? 

Or, is it possible… juuuuuuuuust possible, that this stuff is really frickin' hard. And despite having brilliant people working tremendously hard to solve these types of issues- some injuries are inevitable. 

I'm not trying to carry water for the Twins or anyone/anything else here. I have no vested interest in others' opinions of Twins or their team physicians. But I am familiar with the challenges of solving these types of problems- I do it on a daily basis. It's hard. An in my opinion, assuming it is due to incompetence undersells the difficulty of it by a substantial margin.