Canterino to have TJ surgery....

[wabene]

2 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree with wabene.  Canterino's STUFF is just too good NOT to end up being a major league pitcher.  Can he ever stay healthy ?  Who knows, but I want the Twins to stick with this guy.  Maybe he's destined to the bullpen.  Maybe he could still be a starter, but baseball players can play well into their 30's so his age as a prospect doesn't faze me.  His raw stuff excites me.  Don't give up on him.  I'm not a doctor, although I played one in a Mayo Clinic Heritage Days film a couple years ago.  But it just seems like TJ surgery was coming for Matt a LONG time ago.  Hope it all goes well and he's ready to contribute in 2024.  I for one, would like to see the Twins move him quickly through the system once he comes back if his health and performance merit it.  Let's have Matt get "major league" mileage on that arm.  

Yes and yes

[Trov]

I remember when he was drafted the big flag was he came from Rice, and they are known to burn their pitchers.  Guess he is just another Rice pitcher that will continue to have issues in pros. I do not know why any pitcher would go to Rice knowing their history. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

They started with zero pitchers. What did you expect this year. One pitcher, one, from the minor league system they inherited is a starter in the majors right now, maybe two, I might have that wrong. So, yes, they had to acquire guess from the outside. Linet nearly every team. 

It isn't just this year. Who has this FO actually developed since taking over? Duran? A single relief arm in 6 years? The so called pipeline is essentially a meme at this point. Supplementing in itself isn't problematic. Sure, we can bemoan where they've aimed in FA as far as pitching is concerned, but the real issue is the lack of any significant production from this prospect group that was supposed to be breaking through. 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree with wabene.  Canterino's STUFF is just too good NOT to end up being a major league pitcher.  Can he ever stay healthy ?  Who knows, but I want the Twins to stick with this guy.  Maybe he's destined to the bullpen.  Maybe he could still be a starter, but baseball players can play well into their 30's so his age as a prospect doesn't faze me.  His raw stuff excites me.  Don't give up on him.  I'm not a doctor, although I played one in a Mayo Clinic Heritage Days film a couple years ago.  But it just seems like TJ surgery was coming for Matt a LONG time ago.  Hope it all goes well and he's ready to contribute in 2024.  I for one, would like to see the Twins move him quickly through the system once he comes back if his health and performance merit it.  Let's have Matt get "major league" mileage on that arm.  

I'd like to see Canterino's "stuff" play for more than a handful of innings at AA or higher before I hop on the bandwagon. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It isn't just this year. Who has this FO actually developed since taking over? Duran? A single relief arm in 6 years? The so called pipeline is essentially a meme at this point. Supplementing in itself isn't problematic. Sure, we can bemoan where they've aimed in FA as far as pitching is concerned, but the real issue is the lack of any significant production from this prospect group that was supposed to be breaking through. 

 

I do agree, they have NOT done enough internally. I have no idea how much of that is bad luck with injuries, and how much is on them for not taking pitchers earlier in the draft. How many good starters would you expect there to be drafted and developed every year, and how long do you think it should take for them to show up? I mean, they didn't draft a guy until halfway thru year 1, so I'm not sure we can really say 6 years at this point (and, do you expect anyone drafted last year or this year to be in the majors?). So, like, maybe 4 years, but more like 3 really of guys that "should" be in the majors? 

[bean5302]

To be fair, Duran was a starter converted to reliever because he has so few innings. He wants to get back to starter. Ober, Winder and Graterol look to be good pitchers as well, but yes, probably all bullpen arms due to durability issues.

If we're talking about development, I don't think the draft is the key issue because the current regime would get credit for developing talent they acquired from previous front offices and in trades (like Jax drafted in 2016 and Duran who was part of the Eduardo Escobar trade) so I don't see why 6 years isn't fair, though you'd have to concede the current front office would have been handicapped by bad drafts in say 2013-2016.

Some of the top round pitching picks for the Twins from 2013-2016 who the current front office inherited. Not a great group, but you'd think the development team would be able to make some progress with some of them...
2013 Kohl Stewart
2013 Stephen Gonsalves
2014 Nick Burdi
2014 Sam Clay
2015 Tyler Jay
2015 Kyle Cody
2016 Griffin Jax
2016 Tom Hackimer
2016 Jordan Balazovic
 

[KirbyDome89]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I do agree, they have NOT done enough internally. I have no idea how much of that is bad luck with injuries, and how much is on them for not taking pitchers earlier in the draft. How many good starters would you expect there to be drafted and developed every year, and how long do you think it should take for them to show up? I mean, they didn't draft a guy until halfway thru year 1, so I'm not sure we can really say 6 years at this point (and, do you expect anyone drafted last year or this year to be in the majors?). So, like, maybe 4 years, but more like 3 really of guys that "should" be in the majors? 

I'm ok with drafting for the best talent and not the most dire need, but there has to be an organizational adjustment or philosophy shift if that's the case. They can't refuse to commit any real years or dollars to pitching in FA, watch guys like Cavaco or Sabato toil away in the low minors, and then spend pitching capital for stopgap arms a la this deadline, all while relying on these late round arms that aren't coming through. 

If we're cutting it down to 3-4 years I'd expect at least one solid starter, preferably two. I said they needed to finish this year with 2 reliable starters and they're going to fall short of that as well. The state of the bullpen is even less excusable. 

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

I do agree, they have NOT done enough internally. I have no idea how much of that is bad luck with injuries, and how much is on them for not taking pitchers earlier in the draft. How many good starters would you expect there to be drafted and developed every year, and how long do you think it should take for them to show up? I mean, they didn't draft a guy until halfway thru year 1, so I'm not sure we can really say 6 years at this point (and, do you expect anyone drafted last year or this year to be in the majors?). So, like, maybe 4 years, but more like 3 really of guys that "should" be in the majors? 

This preseason there were 10 pitching prospects in TD’s top 20 prospect list. Several of them on the cusp of an MLB call up if things progressed correctly. Duran and Joe Ryan are the only ones who have surfaced and made an impact on the MLB roster. The rest have taken massive steps backwards or continue to get injured. I expected 1 or 2 more out of the Sands, Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, Strotman, SWR group. 5 years into the project (forgoing the lost development year in 2020) and minimal results… I’m pretty disappointed with the results when that was the main reason why Falvey was hired. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

To be fair, Duran was a starter converted to reliever because he has so few innings. He wants to get back to starter. Ober, Winder and Graterol look to be good pitchers as well, but yes, probably all bullpen arms due to durability issues.

If we're talking about development, I don't think the draft is the key issue because the current regime would get credit for developing talent they acquired from previous front offices and in trades (like Jax drafted in 2016 and Duran who was part of the Eduardo Escobar trade) so I don't see why 6 years isn't fair, though you'd have to concede the current front office would have been handicapped by bad drafts in say 2013-2016.

Some of the top round pitching picks for the Twins from 2013-2016 who the current front office inherited. Not a great group, but you'd think the development team would be able to make some progress with some of them...
2013 Kohl Stewart
2013 Stephen Gonsalves
2014 Nick Burdi
2014 Sam Clay
2015 Tyler Jay
2015 Kyle Cody
2016 Griffin Jax
2016 Tom Hackimer
2016 Jordan Balazovic
 

Or, those were awful picks (given that almost none of them are even in the minors anymore, let alone the majors).

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm ok with drafting for the best talent and not the most dire need, but there has to be an organizational adjustment or philosophy shift if that's the case. They can't refuse to commit any real years or dollars to pitching in FA, watch guys like Cavaco or Sabato toil away in the low minors, and then spend pitching capital for stopgap arms a la this deadline, all while relying on these late round arms that aren't coming through. 

If we're cutting it down to 3-4 years I'd expect at least one solid starter, preferably two. I said they needed to finish this year with 2 reliable starters and they're going to fall short of that as well. The state of the bullpen is even less excusable. 

I agree, there should be 1-2 good starters (and IMO, Ryan should count, but I get others disagree) and 3-4 RPs by now (Jax, Duran, and ?).......It really is 3-4 years, NO ONE from this year or last is in the majors (pitching wise). People keep typing 6 years, but that's just not realistic at all.

They've turned a lot of draft picks into 2 and 1.5 years of good pitching. While that is good, it isn't great.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

... though you'd have to concede the current front office would have been handicapped by bad drafts in say 2013-2016...

 

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or, those were awful picks (given that almost none of them are even in the minors anymore, let alone the majors).

Yeah... like I said. Handicapped by bad drafts, but the way Falvey drafts, he's looking for diamonds in the rough anyway. It feels like Falvey's front office should have been able to produce more than Terry Ryan's front office...

[KirbyDome89]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I agree, there should be 1-2 good starters (and IMO, Ryan should count, but I get others disagree) and 3-4 RPs by now (Jax, Duran, and ?).......It really is 3-4 years, NO ONE from this year or last is in the majors (pitching wise). People keep typing 6 years, but that's just not realistic at all.

They've turned a lot of draft picks into 2 and 1.5 years of good pitching. While that is good, it isn't great.

I count Ryan as one of the two that I wanted to see solidify a spot, but I don't count him as somebody this FO developed in any way. Credit for the trade but he was MLB ready when they got him. Half the "work," was done for them this season, which makes the current situation all the more frustrating. If they wanted to target college arms and fast track them the number of years probably changes, but I really don't care what we're setting it at, quibbling over that is missing the larger point. 

Yeah, it's a good way to supplement, unfortunately it's been the only viable way to build for this FO. Their current approach is painting them into a corner. 

[DocBauer]

As to the OP, going to repeat what I said in another thread. You always try rehab first as it does work, though obviously not all the time. And despite medical technology being what it is today, you still don't cut in to a body for surgery without trying something else first. In retrospect, yes, maybe Canterino and the Twins and doctors should of, could of, just moved to surgery sooner. 

For him...and yes the Twins because I'm a fan...I'm glad he's having the surgery. Having zero chance to make MLB and fulfill your dream vs actually getting healthy and having a chance to make it and fulfill those dreams is a much better option. His pure stuff and ability rivals Duran's. If he makes it later than hoped for, he's still got a chance to be a good/great starter or good/great reliever. Being 26yo is no death sentence to having a quality career. May not be the career you hoped for, but it can still be a good to very good one.

Here's hoping he comes back ASAP, healthy and strong!

[Monkeypaws]

Petty, Haljar, Povich, Gipson-Long traded.

Canterino, Winder hurt. Enlow and Sands have battled injuries

Balazovic struggling.

Hard to develop a pitching pipeline wit all those leaks. 

[bighat]

On 8/10/2022 at 7:37 PM, raindog said:

Attempting to rehab an elbow issue works splendidly once again. They should keep trying that. 

Yes, and wait until August to figure out it's not going to work. Guy's going to miss ALL of 2023 now. Incredibly irresponsible and short-sighted by the organization. 

[Squirrel]

On 8/10/2022 at 6:37 PM, raindog said:

Attempting to rehab an elbow issue works splendidly once again. They should keep trying that. 

 

2 hours ago, bighat said:

Yes, and wait until August to figure out it's not going to work. Guy's going to miss ALL of 2023 now. Incredibly irresponsible and short-sighted by the organization. 

We have a resident 'expert' in the field here who has gone into lengths over the years on this. Unless it's a complete tear, surgery is never going to be the first option. It's not an irresponsible choice to try rehab first. It would, however, be an irresponsible choice to rush to surgery without trying other alternatives first.

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

 

We have a resident 'expert' in the field here who has gone into lengths over the years on this. Unless it's a complete tear, surgery is never going to be the first option. It's not an irresponsible choice to try rehab first. It would, however, be an irresponsible choice to rush to surgery without trying other alternatives first.

The desire of many here to demand other humans get their bodies cut open never ceases to amaze me. 

[Squirrel]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The desire of many here to demand other humans get their bodies cut open never ceases to amaze me. 

To be fair, I don’t think most actually do. But it’s a natural reaction to be frustrated as fans to see good players go down. No one wishes anyone ill but sometimes our armchair ‘GMedness’ gets the better of some

[bird]

On 8/10/2022 at 9:25 PM, USAFChief said:

I'd say of those, Duran has established himself as a viable MLB pitcher. His stuff is too good not to be successful if healthy.

Ryan and Jax are partially there. Neither are established yet though. Ryan looks no better than Scott Diamond did after a year. 

Ober, Winder and Moran have established nothing.

The "pipeline" is so robust they needed to sign Archer and  Bundy, and trade for another starter and 2 relievers. 

 

 

Hey Chief. I'm going to push forward a little bit in support of SteelDodo's post. Clearly, you and I understand that we often view Twins things differently, with you being a healthy skeptic and me being a rational (?) optimist.

We agree on Duran. However, I think Ryan is already a Jim Hughes style success, and you'll be in awe of my projection of Jax as the next Johnny Klippstein (look it up, children). The ceilings for Winder, Ober, and Moran, none high draft choices? Injuries keep the jury sequestered, but Maeda, as a product of the farm system, is overshadowed by the clear reality that the pipeline, explanations and excuses ignored, has yet to deliver.

A few of the recent very excellent discussions have been about the question of whether 1) there is any semblance of a viable pitching pipeline; 2) whether the mythology of Falvey as some sort of "pitcher whisperer" was fair, had a basis to begin with, was a promise made to all of us as opposed to an expectation nurtured otherwise, and has any hints of truth today; and 3) is there hope for the future?

First, let's stop bringing up Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, and Nick Burdi. That's old news and pretty much pre-Falvey stuff and therefore not exactly germain to the questions above.

So, while I'll share the view that the pipeline, to-date, is nothing boast about, I very much agree with SteelDodo that because  tinstaapp applies, Maeda, Gray, Duran, Jax, and then Ryan, Ober, Winder, Ober, Sands, to name most to-date, does not represent failure on the part of the FO, especially in light of a higher than league average injury setback.

Just glancing at Fangraph's pre-season prospect list:

Josh Winder  MLB  (IL)

Joe Ryan  MLB  #3/4 starter

Jhoan Duran MLB  #2 RP

Jordan Balazovic  AAA Enigma, no bust yet

Matt Canterino AA  IL

Simeon Woods Richardson  AA  IL

Cole Sands  MLB  IL

Ronny Henriquez  AAA  Enigma no bust yet

Marco Raya  A+

Louie Varland  AAA

Blayne Enlow  AA  IL

David Festa  A+

Now, I've inexpertly compared this list to the pitching pipelines of our AL Central competitors, and have concuded that it looks a bit worrisome in a vacuum compared to KC and another team and not much better that a couple of others. But it is more "robust" that a lot of us think, depending on how the injury situation plays out.

 

[USAFChief]

18 minutes ago, bird said:

Hey Chief. I'm going to push forward a little bit in support of SteelDodo's post. Clearly, you and I understand that we often view Twins things differently, with you being a healthy skeptic and me being a rational (?) optimist.

We agree on Duran. However, I think Ryan is already a Jim Hughes style success, and you'll be in awe of my projection of Jax as the next Johnny Klippstein (look it up, children). The ceilings for Winder, Ober, and Moran, none high draft choices? Injuries keep the jury sequestered, but Maeda, as a product of the farm system, is overshadowed by the clear reality that the pipeline, explanations and excuses ignored, has yet to deliver.

A few of the recent very excellent discussions have been about the question of whether 1) there is any semblance of a viable pitching pipeline; 2) whether the mythology of Falvey as some sort of "pitcher whisperer" was fair, had a basis to begin with, was a promise made to all of us as opposed to an expectation nurtured otherwise, and has any hints of truth today; and 3) is there hope for the future?

First, let's stop bringing up Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, and Nick Burdi. That's old news and pretty much pre-Falvey stuff and therefore not exactly germain to the questions above.

So, while I'll share the view that the pipeline, to-date, is nothing boast about, I very much agree with SteelDodo that because  tinstaapp applies, Maeda, Gray, Duran, Jax, and then Ryan, Ober, Winder, Ober, Sands, to name most to-date, does not represent failure on the part of the FO, especially in light of a higher than league average injury setback.

Just glancing at Fangraph's pre-season prospect list:

Josh Winder  MLB  (IL)

Joe Ryan  MLB  #3/4 starter

Jhoan Duran MLB  #2 RP

Jordan Balazovic  AAA Enigma, no bust yet

Matt Canterino AA  IL

Simeon Woods Richardson  AA  IL

Cole Sands  MLB  IL

Ronny Henriquez  AAA  Enigma no bust yet

Marco Raya  A+

Louie Varland  AAA

Blayne Enlow  AA  IL

David Festa  A+

Now, I've inexpertly compared this list to the pitching pipelines of our AL Central competitors, and have concuded that it looks a bit worrisome in a vacuum compared to KC and another team and not much better that a couple of others. But it is more "robust" that a lot of us think, depending on how the injury situation plays out.

 

As always, bird, pleasure to hear from ya.

 

[bird]

On 8/11/2022 at 6:11 PM, Vanimal46 said:

This preseason there were 10 pitching prospects in TD’s top 20 prospect list. Several of them on the cusp of an MLB call up if things progressed correctly. Duran and Joe Ryan are the only ones who have surfaced and made an impact on the MLB roster. The rest have taken massive steps backwards or continue to get injured. I expected 1 or 2 more out of the Sands, Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, Strotman, SWR group. 5 years into the project (forgoing the lost development year in 2020) and minimal results… I’m pretty disappointed with the results when that was the main reason why Falvey was hired. 

Vanimal, I think this is a sentiment shared with the fans of at least 80% of fans about their own team. I know this will be construed as an excuse, but I'd bet small amounts of money, ie. my life's savings, that more than a couple of the pitchers you have mentioned, plus a couple more that will pretty much emerge out of nowhere, will buoy your spirits.

I believe the prevailing view about Falvey being hired "mainly" because of this idea that he had some secret sauce about pitching is simply inaccurate. Yes, Falvey made a contribution in the Guardian's success at developing pitching. But the main reason he was hired? To completely overhaul and modernize the baseball operations of the organization, something Jim Pohlad became predisposed to do with a massive commitment to exploding the previous budget. The idea that Cleveland, and by association Falvey has some sort of exceptional capability has been perpetuated, I believe, by too small of a sample size. Are the Guardians good at developing pitching? Has Falvey installed the same technology and processes here? Yep. But the drafters gotta have decent draft positions, the developers gotta have the good luck of having a couple over-achievers drafted for them, and the injury Gods need to treat you fairly relative to your competitors.