Identifying the Twins’ Top 3 Weaknesses

[tarheeltwinsfan]

21 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I'm assuming we are talking about finishing the season strong and not the playoffs. A lot of things change once the playoffs happen. But different discussion for a different day.

So weaknesses as of NOW:

3] You can't "fix" something as abstract as clutch hitting. Those kind of things can vary so much week to week, month to month, season to season based on everything from hot streaks to opportunity to lineup protection. I believe what you CAN do is present the best lineup possible. Correa is just so good that you have to believe he will get hot again. Keep him in the top 3 with Arraez and Polanco, most days, and Miranda and Kepler probably "platoon" at the 4th spot. Let Buck hit around 5 or 6 at this point as a dangerous hitter. Hopefully, we get a healthy Larnach back to finish the season doing what he did before he got hurt. If not, we have to get the best we can from Gordon, Celestino, and maybe even Cave in the bottom 3rd of the lineup. A healthy Garlick could really help against LHP. If he can't get back, is there anything left to pick up that could help???

In other words, weakness is OF right now. Have to hope for health. Otherwise, while you won't re-invent anyone at this point, you can at least "practice" some bunting and contact situations.

2] NOT going to get in to a SP debate. Minor injuries and covid has affected Gray and Ryan. I can see watching their IP to a degree to keep them strong at the end. Losing Ober hurt the rotation. Losing Winder, at least for now, hurt the rotation. Mahle changes the entire complexion a TON. Bundy is what he is, which is solid and gives a chance most days. Archer is what he is. There is SOME hope he might yet move to 5 IP daily at this point. Talking playoffs, just for a moment, they might be a 1-2 punch piggyback, maybe even before the playoffs. Good health and IP monitoring might just see Mahle, Gray, and Ryan start to consistently throw 90+ pitches and lengthen out. We're not perfect, but we are improved. And a return to health for Winder or Ober, (Not betting on Ober), could really help. 

1] The pen still needs assistance. The back end is not great, but vastly improved. I have real confidence in our last 5. Yes, I even feel good about Thielbar, who has generally been very good after a few bad early outings. Youth in Jax and Duran might be the only real weakness here. The problem remains the last 3 spots and middle relief. That's all the more with the back end of the rotation. Haven't heard about Pagan's status. I never want to see anyone getting injured. But his "loss" might be a blessing  for the pen in the long run. I believe Moran has a chance to help the pen in 2022 and beyond. He's still a rookie, but early returns are good and his future is potentially bright. There is room and NEED for 2 guys to successfully fill a middle innings role. Is Sands ready for that? How about Smeltzer? A healthy Winder? Despite a very poor start to 2022 with Washington, Sanchez has pitched well for St Paul and looked very good in his one start. Could he be a guy?

Lopez and Fulmer were great additions! And they deepened the pen. But the staff is 13 men and all can and are important. And right now, despite the additions/improvements being great, they need to make the middle 3 spots GOOD, and not just questionable. That's why Duffey was released.

Short:

1) Adjust the lineup for best results, hope for Kepler. Larnach, and Garlick. MAYBE check out the waiver wire but is there really anyone worthwhile? Never too late to spend some time working on bunts or contact plays.

2) Find a middle of the pen that is good and reliable because it helps BOTH the rotation AND the pen usage. 

Doc, I must respectfully disagree that you can't fix poor "clutch hitting", if "clutch hitting" means advancing runners and hitting with runners in scoring position and avoiding rally sapping double plays. If some Twins players could be taught/encouraged/told to hit behind a baserunner, hit to the opposite field when a runner is in scoring position, bunt to advance a runner...then I contend the Twins would score more runs, which is my definition of "clutch hitting", when runners are on base. I do agree with all of your other really good points.  

[stringer bell]

I think base running is a big weakness. Most of the problem is having too many slow players, but part of the problem is just poor base running. 
 

The too consistent short starts have revealed the lack of talent and lack of flexibility in the ‘pen. 
 

I bet followers of every team thinks they don’t advance runners and score them from third base with less than two out. I do think the Twins are below average mostly because their top players haven’t performed like elite players. In

[old nurse]

Left on base. It seems  like every time I look at a box score there is an inordinate amount of runners left on base. A better performance would cure most any ill

[old nurse]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think base running is a big weakness. Most of the problem is having too many slow players, but part of the problem is just poor base running. 
 

The too consistent short starts have revealed the lack of talent and lack of flexibility in the ‘pen. 
 

I bet followers of every team thinks they don’t advance runners and score them from third base with less than two out. I do think the Twins are below average mostly because their top players haven’t performed like elite players. In

Should. Have read page 2. Before i commented.  Here you go for your amusement. To everyone’s here surprise, the number is under 5. https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runners-left-in-scoring-position-per-game

[Whitey333]

One area of weakness not mentioned was field manager Robocop Baldelli.  Probably one of the poorest managers in all of baseball IMO.  You recently had the game against the blue jays where he sat out both Buxton and Correa on the same day.  Today, Tuesday against the Dodgers because they are pitching a lefty Arreaz is not in starting lineup.  He just went 6 for 10 in his past two games and you sit him?  Get serious.  The lefty/lefty thing is strange in that you have one of the best hitters in all of baseball but you are telling him he is not good enough to play against lefties?  Rocco always plays Kepler against lefties yet Arraez has a career 50 points higher lefty/lefty average than Kepler.  Very strange.  Rocco has not much feel for the game and is terrible at in game management and sticking to the game plan even when it's not working.  In the end Rocco will cost the team a playoff spot.  He's already lost a number of games this year.  I vote lack of veteran performance and field manager as the biggest weaknesses.

[wabene]

7 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with the premise of the article but disagree with the comments that this is somehow the manager's fault or that the FO hasn't tried to deal with these issues. The reality is that the Twins have about 80-85% of the players necessary for a championship contender. We are short at least (1) a true workhorse starter who can consistently give us 7+ innings a game, (2) another middle of the order bat that can be a consistent run producer (that's more due to injury than anything else), and (3) sufficient bullpen depth, including a shut down left-handed relief pitcher.  If you look at the statistics, you can understand why Rocco is not letting our starters have that 3rd trip through the order; all of them, repeat all of them, have consistently poor results that 3rd trip through. Even Ryan. Gray has always been that way. You could try to develop younger pitchers like Ryan by giving him that 3rd trip through but that may be at the expense of a few wins over the course of the season. I think the front office made the right move picking up Tyler Mahle to try to give us that 7+ inning pitcher. Time will tell if he can actually do that.

The lack of a middle of the order band is I think the bigger problem because it puts too much pressure on the 4 or 5 solid offensive guys we have and over time their performance suffers as a result. To me, this was the one thing we didn't get at the trade deadline that we should have. Thank goodness for the development of José Miranda and the emergence or career year of Nick Gordon because without them we would really be in trouble offensively. I do think the FO did a good job strengthening the bullpen at the deadline and made the right call with Tyler Duffey. I would frankly like to see them make the same call with Pagan but I understand the irresistible lure of his talent. He at least has the basic talent to be a successful pitcher, something Duffey unfortunately no longer has. There are at least attacking this weakness and the return of Maeda in the bullpen could really help if that happens.

I think our record is very reflective of our talent level and I think Rocco has done a good job of maximizing the production of the players he has. I think the bottom line is that were just short a little bit on the talent side so it requires us to have guys do more than there really capable of to be successful. I frankly think the injuries to Larnach and Kirilloff in particular really hurt us by depriving us of that guy that could hit in the number 5 or 6 hole and really lengthen in the lineup. Guys like Kepler, Sanchez, Urshela, Celestino, and now Cave are nice players to have if they hit 7 through 9 order where occasional offensive contributions can be enjoyed. The problem is we don't have enough hitters so all of a sudden Gordon has to hit 5, Buxton has to play when he really should be on the IL, Polanco doesn't get the chance to heal his back, and the team winds up counting on guys like the 4 mentioned above to be run producers. They aren't and probably never will be(although you never know with the guys in a Celestino).

The real issue is were just a little short of the players we need. That's not Rocco's fault. I don't know if he or the Front Office are average, good, or great. The one thing I do know since they got here the team is better, more competitive, more enjoyable to watch, and gives one hope that they could actually win the division and even potentially compete in the playoffs. That is a huge step up from where we were before they got here. 

Good post.What did we go through before the front office change, 6 out of 7 years with 90 plus loses. They have had many injuries, and I think you could point at the FO for bringing in injury prone players. They have also been much quicker to adapt, much less risk adverse, and we are set up well next year in many areas. Maeda, Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Winder, Ober and Paddack in the second half. That's not your Terry Ryan rotation. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

5 hours ago, python85 said:

Pitchers that consistently give 7+ innings are a thing of the past. If my quick search is correct there is currently only one MLB pitcher (Sandy Alcantara) averaging more than 7 innings per start. Yes our starters need to go deeper into games, but the player that you are saying we are "short" just doesn't exist anymore.

I wasn't very clear; I was trying to say pitchers that go into the 7th. That should have been 6+ innings, not 7+. I do think those pitchers exist. In fact, I think Mahle may be one of them, particularly against weaker opponents. 

[darin617]

Would it be wrong to say top 3 weaknesses are Pitching, Pitching, and Pitching?

[RpR]

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

Would it be wrong to say top 3 weaknesses are Pitching, Pitching, and Pitching?

Yes.

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, darin617 said:

Would it be wrong to say top 3 weaknesses are Pitching, Pitching, and Pitching?

I'd go run prevention, run scoring, and management.

[farmerguychris]

21 hours ago, python85 said:

Pitchers that consistently give 7+ innings are a thing of the past. If my quick search is correct there is currently only one MLB pitcher (Sandy Alcantara) averaging more than 7 innings per start. Yes our starters need to go deeper into games, but the player that you are saying we are "short" just doesn't exist anymore.

Completely agree.  The days of Bert Blyleven are over and not relevant to today's game.  Stats show the third time thru the order - pitchers do worse.  Why would you intentionally give the other team better odds?  

[3balls2strikes]

Twins' top 3 weaknesses:

1) Baldelli,

2) Baldelli,

3) Baldelli

[gman]

I've narrowed it down to hitting, pitching & defense.

[LA VIkes Fan]

You forgot baserunning, but I guess we only get to identify 3 weaknesses.