Could Carlos Correa Opt Back in for 2023?

[h2oface]

Correa has been a huge disappointment. At the plate and in the field. Worth about 10 million. He isn't a bad player, but not that far above average this year. Time to step it up. Character? Well, without immunity, his character would have certainly been suspended.

[Lonestar]

This is so much sophistry -- I mean small sample size. He's had 67 AB's with runners in scoring position and 31 with runners in scoring position and 2 out.

Last year he had 158 AB's with runners in scoring position and OPSed .842, including 85 AB's with 2 outs and an OPS of .915. 

PS The Twins are not giving him nearly as many chances as the Astros did.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

5 hours ago, Reptevia said:

A better question may be: “Should the Twins opt OUT of his contract?  Do we really want to pay $35M for an average SS?

I thought it was a player option and that the Twins do not have the option to opt out.  I may be wrong but that is what I recall.

[strumdatjag]

I suspect Correa will opt in for another year in anticipation of a better performance in 2023.   Best case scenario is the Twins getting that performance next year and then Correa opts out of his third year and seeks a big long term contract elsewhere. 

[Einheri]

I forget, didn't Boras have to share some of his agent money with another agency?
And I think he wouldn't have to share that part of his cut if Correa signed a new contract.  Boras then would want him to sign a new contract, even if it were one year at the same price.

If I were the Twins, though, I'd probably stand pat.  "Take the $35M and we'll be happy; otherwise, best of luck to you, Carlos."

[Craig Arko]

Not having to worry about the SS position again? Works for me.

[rwilfong86]

Hopefully so!

[twins_89]

I still look at the chances of Correa opting in as extremely remote, likely only happening if he suffers a significant injury before the end of the season. With that said, I would be perfectly happy for him to opt in for one more year where he knows he needs to improve his performance to get paid. I think the Twins are in a good position as long as they don't give him a huge long-term contract, 

[darin617]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Back when he signed with us, he and Boras both commented on how well he had done at TF, with Correa himself saying ‘I see the ball really well there.’ 

So maybe Correa needs to get his buzzer back.

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, darin617 said:

So maybe Correa needs to get his buzzer back.

Okay, so you don't want him on the team for other reasons. We get it. Let's move on now.

[Brandon]

If he opts in great if not, I hope we can extend him.  I like him on the team.

[MGM4706]

Dumbest article I've seen in awhile! Correa has been the best 2-way SS the Twins have ever had!! Most of his errors are on balls others never get to. Plus he is first to greet the kids after a HR or RBI. Only real Leader on the team!! Invaluable to the teams success!!

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, Linus said:

Still think the chance he stays is near zero. Somebody will give him a mega deal and the last thing he wants to do is go into the free agent market any older than he has to.
 

Also for people wanting to sign him to a five year extension that just ain’t happening. He doesn’t have to take that and he won’t. 
 

I like the idea of taking the $35 million and spending it on pitching but our front office just sat out a bountiful free agent pitching market last winter. Why would we expect them to dramatically change course this off season?

UNLESS nobody gives him the mega deal.  You know.  Like last time..

[Florida Flash]

On 8/6/2022 at 10:46 AM, FlyingFinn said:

No, Palacios is really playing well at AAA and is a great fielder. He would be used until Lewis returns. And maybe beyond that if he plays well with Lewis also playing SS and OF.

Plus does Correa bring $34 million more to the table than what Palacios will cost next year? I say he does not., not that I do not think Correa is not a great player and fun to watch. I am a bit overly critical of the money Falvey and Levine throw around as they are pricing me out of their market. But from the attendance, no one else sooooooo.

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The OP is about Correa, but I think bringing in discussion of Lewis and Palacios is relevant. 

IMO...and it's a combination of hope and belief in the kid...Lewis will recover and be an excellent ML player for years to come, even if he doesn't achieve the grandiose level of SUPERSTAR. If Correa is one and done, I could still see the Twins brining in a placeholder. Why wouldn't you? You'd be crazy not to have depth and options.

A refresher on Palacios. He was traded for Odorizzi before 2018 as a good glove SS who could hit. Except, he didn't for 2yrs and was released after those 2yrs, and re-signed by the Twins following the missed 2020 season. And suddenly, he had learned to hit again. 

2021 at AA: .259/ .340/ .439/ .779 with 17dbls, 19hr, and 18-8sb

2022 at AAA, so far: .297/ .360/ .477/ .837 with 24dbls, 10hr, and 10-7sb.

His glove appears to be legit from reputation and what we saw in limited action. He's actually improved as a hitter despite jumping up a level in 2022. Really, only his SB % has dropped. All of that coming off a very strong winter league performance. 

Is he a late bloomer after 2 failed years and a missed season? Kind of looks that way. You could knock 40-50  points off each of his quad slash line numbers and still have an effective "contributor" offensively while playing great defense. I know I'd take that over what we saw in Simmons in 2021. 

Understand, I'm a fan of Correa and NOT saying I wouldn't like him back. I just don't, as of now, see a reality where he is. And I'm not trying to blow goofy smoke of illusions to anyone that a late blooming Palacios is a long term answer or that the Twins shouldn't look at a veteran fill in option should Correa actually leave. I am only trying to look beyond tomorrow to say that if he does, indeed, move on, a single spot in the lineup doesn't have to mean automatic depression or incompetence. There may be options and the $35M saved, plus Sano $ saved, plus Rogers $ saved, and possibly Sanchez $ saved, just might be better spent on extensions and additions.

It would be great to have Correa back, somehow, some way.  I'd be happy. But the sky won't fall if he does leave. It might even open up some new opportunities.

In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy having him around and hope his recent struggles reverse themselves and he will help the Twins win the ALC and some playoff games and then we will see what happens from there.

OR he could be just another guy who won't hit at the big league level.

[Harrison Greeley III]

I didn't get a chance to respond to this. 

He sat out there for a loooong time last winter after a 6.3 fWAR season. He's currently on pace to come up short of 3 fWAR this season. A month ago I would have said he definitely opts out. Now I've got it closer to a coin flip. I still could see him opting out, but I don't think anyone is going to pay him at a $35m per year rate. I think he'd be looking at something closer to the Javy Baez deal (6yr, 140m). But maybe he'd prefer the 140m in guaranteed money over a longer time frame instead of the 70m over the next 2 years. I could see the rationale either way. 

[RpR]

Twins have now had probably the two best Short Stop players in the past decade; posters have ragged on both from the get-go; If the Twins lose Correa it will leave a gapping hole in their defense especially as First Base is still a unfilled void.

 

[Cody Pirkl]

On 8/6/2022 at 8:20 AM, Game7-91 said:

It seems odd that "...teams don’t value things like RBI's like they used to...", scoring runs seems to be the point of the game.

What I meant more by that is teams look beyond opportunity based stats more than they did in the 90s and 2000s. Maybe back then his pace of 60ish RBI would make it impossible for anyone to consider a long term deal this offseason whereas now I think teams look further elsewhere in search of indicators of actual skill. In Correa's case this year however he's actually had a fair bit of opportunity to cash in RBI and has been absolutely brutal in those scenarios so who knows.

[Minny505]

I actually think this is likely. I say that because Carlos wants a big payday and really only gets one shot at it. His sights were allegedly on him getting $300mil+ this past offseason, but never got that kind of offer.

He may be lucky to get a $200mil offer with the way he has played, particularly on defense, which could scare teams from that big, long contract if he has to be moved to 3B in 2025. Though $200mil is certainly still in play at 29 should he have a bounceback 2023. 

[RpR]

53 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I actually think this is likely. I say that because Carlos wants a big payday and really only gets one shot at it. His sights were allegedly on him getting $300mil+ this past offseason, but never got that kind of offer.

He may be lucky to get a $200mil offer with the way he has played, particularly on defense, which could scare teams from that big, long contract if he has to be moved to 3B in 2025. Though $200mil is certainly still in play at 29 should he have a bounceback 2023. 

Why would any team move some one whose entire career is short stop, to third; good way to ruin a player.

[Reptevia]

35 minutes ago, RpR said:

Why would any team move some one whose entire career is short stop, to third; good way to ruin a player.

Because they can no longer play the position at an elite level. Not saying Carlos is at that point, but his defense this year, (according to metrics cited in OP) is average. His offense isn’t much better. That begs the question of how much of a drop off is Palacios vs 2022 Correa +35M?  Also, based on last years free agent class, ($8.5M when 2+ WAR) Twin’s are over paying Correa about $10M this year give or take. He’d be foolish to opt out. 

[RpR]

20 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Because they can no longer play the position at an elite level. Not saying Carlos is at that point, but his defense this year, (according to metrics cited in OP) is average. His offense isn’t much better. That begs the question of how much of a drop off is Palacios vs 2022 Correa +35M?  Also, based on last years free agent class, ($8.5M when 2+ WAR) Twin’s are over paying Correa about $10M this year give or take. He’d be foolish to opt out. 

The bias against Correa here is astounding, add to the the magical future play of rookies is an astounding  pie-in-the-sky -- maybe we should bring Rooker back.

This is a team sport where players can become quasi-brothers; it is not place where a souteneur has people for sale, or use.

[Minny505]

14 hours ago, RpR said:

The bias against Correa here is astounding, add to the the magical future play of rookies is an astounding  pie-in-the-sky -- maybe we should bring Rooker back.

This is a team sport where players can become quasi-brothers; it is not place where a has people for sale, or use.

Questioning the drop off is not bias. It's objectivity. That said, the drop off is likely 3-ish WAR and Correa is a much more valuable player to the team, even at the cost. Palacios is a serviceable bench player, nothing more...not at this point.

But nearly every SS moves off the position in their early-to-mid thirties. The extreme plunge with which Correa is going thru right now is troubling, particularly for his defensive calling card: an incredible arm. He's been throwing the ball all over this year. 

Hopefully it's just a one-season blip, but arm issues for a SS leading up to free agency can be brutal on their earnings. Look at what happened to Trevor Story. He likely got about 40% less in FA than expected just a year earlier due to a balky arm. 

And in this case, the potential revelation of him playing thru an arm injury does not make the outlook better for him.

My point is that, unless something changes, I suspect Correa will not exercise his opt-out. He's still a solid SS, one I want on my team, but he has played closer to the level of a $150mil SS, not a $280mil SS. I can't imagine him settling for that after his last offseason. 

BTW - What is a sourteneur? I've never heard that term.

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

BTW - What is a sourteneur? I've never heard that term.

Leave out that first 'r' and I just learned a new word today!

(And a way to get my nose punched if the other person has a stellar vocabulary. )

[USAFChief]

11 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Questioning the drop off is not bias. It's objectivity. That said, the drop off is likely 3-ish WAR and Correa is a much more valuable player to the team, even at the cost. Palacios is a serviceable bench player, nothing more...not at this point.

But nearly every SS moves off the position in their early-to-mid thirties. The extreme plunge with which Correa is going thru right now is troubling, particularly for his defensive calling card: an incredible arm. He's been throwing the ball all over this year. 

Hopefully it's just a one-season blip, but arm issues for a SS leading up to free agency can be brutal on their earnings. Look at what happened to Trevor Story. He likely got about 40% less in FA than expected just a year earlier due to a balky arm. 

And in this case, the potential revelation of him playing thru an arm injury does not make the outlook better for him.

My point is that, unless something changes, I suspect Correa will not exercise his opt-out. He's still a solid SS, one I want on my team, but he has played closer to the level of a $150mil SS, not a $280mil SS. I can't imagine him settling for that after his last offseason. 

BTW - What is a sourteneur? I've never heard that term.

Extreme plunge?

Arm issues?

 

 

 

[Minny505]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Leave out that first 'r' and I just learned a new word today!

(And a way to get my nose punched if the other person has a stellar vocabulary. )

That definitely clarifies what RpR was trying to say. 

If that is the word he meant to use.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Extreme plunge?

Arm issues?

He is on pace for as many throwing errors in 2022 as from 2019-2021 combined.

Eye test here certainly, but he has seemed to bounce, or just straight miss, throws to 1B on the regular.

Extreme plunge is an exaggeration, but plunge is not. He went from being the most valuable defensive player in the AL by most metrics to a slight liability vs the average defensive SS, and most of it is due to his throwing. Admittedly it could just be noise, but it is worth monitoring as he approaches his 30s. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

That definitely clarifies what RpR was trying to say. 

If that is the word he meant to use.

Thank you , I fixed it; some where along the way my conputer lost spekk check.

[Reptevia]

19 hours ago, RpR said:

The bias against Correa here is astounding, add to the the magical future play of rookies is an astounding  pie-in-the-sky -- maybe we should bring Rooker back.

This is a team sport where players can become quasi-brothers; it is not place where a souteneur has people for sale, or use.

If it is “bias”, it isn’t mine. The OP pointed out the marked digression citing metrics. Even if Palacios is a below average replacement, it would come with a $35M savings give or take. As far as professional athletes being pimped out for money, are you even paying attention? It’s a business. The players are the product. No happy ending without the players. 

[Major League Ready]

He was looking for "Lindor Money" last year which of course was $341M.  Lindor is almost exactly 1 year older so I would bet Boras still feels Lindor is a reasonable comp.  Let's say the market is just not good and the best offer Boras can come up with is $250M.  Correa could opt in for 2023.  He would need to get $215M at age 29 to net the same amount.  I seriously doubt he would or should reject an offer at $250 because he probably does not get more than $150 if his performance is not significantly better next year.