Could Carlos Correa Opt Back in for 2023?

[Squirrel]

10 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

A better question may be: “Should the Twins opt OUT of his contract?  Do we really want to pay $35M for an average SS?

The Twins don’t have the option to opt out, only Correa does. But even if the Twins had that option, no, they shouldn’t. Correa is well above average. You obviously haven’t watched him play. Yes, his offense is down this year and I hope that picks up for the remainder of the season, for however long that is. But Correa is far above an average SS. And we’d be lucky to have him for longer, imo.

[Reptevia]

He is this year. Below average in some defensive metrics. Is it worth $35M to gamble that this year is an aberration?  Doesn’t matter as I was wrong about team option. 

[Tibs]

No chance he's getting $35 million this offseason. I hope he listens to an extension offer from the Twins

[Doctor Gast]

It'll depend on how well he performs going into & during the post season. If he's super, they'll forget the mediocre regular season.

[Rosterman]

You run the risk of getting injured. So depending on the length or amount, he could depart for a longterm deal, anything over fve years and $125+ million at this point. I'm sure he would like more, with the opt outs depending on actualy amount paid at 3-5 years.

But he has to put up better numbers than he is currently doing for the Twins. Even a short stint on the IL can hurt his progress to a much bigger contract. The Twins 3-year deal is a nice buffer as long as he stays healthy. He would still be a young free agent and could get a 5-7 year deal easily if he proves himself healthy, even after the Twins payouts.

And it was a gamble for the Twins, too. They could be on the dcket for three years of money if something happened to Correa. But better than paying ut for 5-7 years at the same yearly average.

[ashbury]

36 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

You run the risk of getting injured.

Exactly.  That's the key thing about the contract the Twins offered him: a $70M guarantee beyond the first season, in case he's catastrophically injured this year, but with the opportunity to negotiate a better deal, in case he's not.

But the calculation changes after each of the first two seasons.  So, this coming off-season, assuming he reaches it in full health, now his decision becomes to accept another $35M payday for 2023, but with only a $35M guarantee beyond that season, in case he's catastrophically injured.

That is less of an inducement to stay.  Almost anyone will offer a better guaranteed total contract value than that.

Maybe this past off-season he had visions of a $300M megacontract (which proved non-existent for him), but Boras will assist him in looking realistically at the potential market if he opts out for 2023, and if it's (say) only $200M after a non-All Star 2022, it is what it is.  Boras might also forecast that a 2023 similar to 2022 could reduce the expected contract to only $100M, a year hence - in which case he'd better grab whatever $200M contract is offered.  Boras is portrayed by many as some sort of charlatan, but to me he's nothing but a pragmatist.

So Correa's chances of opting in are not greatly improved by 2022 being not among his best seasons (and we still have many weeks to play, before that is determined).  Only something really dire would make him see staying as the smart choice.  Something dire, or the Twins offering something nice of course.

[jorgenswest]

I hope he stays. If he doesn’t stay they might look to Nick Gordon. Gordon had a long stretch of health trouble and had lost strength. That loss impacted his batting and I am guessing his play at shortstop also. I would prepare him for a lot of time in the middle infield in the off-season if Correa opts out.

[roger]

1 hour ago, Reptevia said:

A better question may be: “Should the Twins opt OUT of his contract?  Do we really want to pay $35M for an average SS?

As I understand his contract, the Twins don’t have anything they can do.  He has a contract for $35.1M for 3 years.  He has the option to opt out after this year and next year.  The Twins are locked in.

I suppose the fact Boras negotiated options for both this year and next increases the likelihood he stays for another year. 

[Thebigalguy]

If he opts in, it gives Royce Lewis more time to come of age and heal fully playing part-time. Win win. I agree that a long term deal makes zero sense, but another year playing and mentoring would be great.

[Nashvilletwin]

Actually, it might be better for us if he opts out.

Here’s the thinking. We save $35MM. With Sanchez and Sano gone, we would have a total of about $50MM extra to spend. What does that get us?

Let’s say a solid starter plus three relievers and a decent back up catcher.  The roster in ‘23 might look something like this:

OF: Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, and Celestino (Wallner and Martin on deck)

IF: Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Palacios, Miranda, Urshela, and Lewis (2nd half).

Catcher: Jeffers, FA

SP: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and FA (SWR, Winder and Ober on deck for injuries)

RP: López, Duran, Jax, Megill (yes, I still have hopes for him), Fulmer (resigned as a FA), two more FAs, plus one player within the organization.

That’s a pretty darn good lineup led by a really good starting staff, a solid relief corps, and good overall depth.

So, if Correa does opt out, things will still be ok and possibly better.

 

[Squirrel]

29 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Actually, it might be better for us if he opts out.

Here’s the thinking. We save $35MM. With Sanchez and Sano gone, we would have a total of about $50MM extra to spend. What does that get us?

Let’s say a solid starter plus three relievers and a decent back up catcher.  The roster in ‘23 might look something like this:

OF: Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, and Celestino (Wallner and Martin on deck)

IF: Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Palacios, Miranda, Urshela, and Lewis (2nd half).

Catcher: Jeffers, FA

SP: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and FA (SWR, Winder and Ober on deck for injuries)

RP: López, Duran, Jax, Megill (yes, I still have hopes for him), Fulmer (resigned as a FA), two more FAs, plus one player within the organization.

That’s a pretty darn good lineup led by a really good starting staff, a solid relief corps, and good overall depth.

So, if Correa does opt out, things will still be ok and possibly better.

 

I like the plan. But … the Twins could still spend on all that AND Correa … I don’t think it’s an either/or here

[chinmusic]

The mere fact that he stunningly signed with the Twins at all, indicates that nothing's out of the question.  I'd be thrilled with a second year.

As a poster mentioned earlier, speculation will have more relevance at the end of the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bean5302]

No. There' is a 0% chance Correa opts in unless he is catastrophically injured. Correa's options were always to protect Correa at a significant risk to the Twins. 

It's a BAD thing if Correa exercises his options.

[Mark G]

I see an awful lot of expectations that Lewis is pretty much a sure thing to come back, and just as strong or stronger than before.  I am lost as to the confidence; not the hope, but the confidence.  At 23 he has blown out his knee (big time) twice, and there is never a guarantee someone will be the same after that, especially at the SS position.  Look at Buck, for example.  Fragile would be a kind description of his career and, at 28, has what even the team acknowledges as "chronic" knee issues which keep him playing part time, at least for the near future.  What is it about Lewis that makes everyone so confident this will change in his career?  We have to plan on him not being the long term SS of the future, and if he is, God bless him.  Great.  But don't plan on it, especially if you can get a player of Correa's caliber.  A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush, as my grandpa was fond of reminding me (the bush being the minor leagues today, no matter how promising one or 2 may look).  Do what you can to keep Carlos.  

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I like the plan. But … the Twins could still spend on all that AND Correa … I don’t think it’s an either/or here

They are at $110M for next year plus whatever incentives Buxton and Maeda earns so $115-$120M.  It makes no sense to add a SP unless its a top of the rotation guy (better than Gray / Mahle) which is $25M-35M.  How much do you think they will spend?

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is about 25% he stays right now. He's been good, bit not great. There are other superstar SS FA next year. 

[darin617]

Maybe we need someone to start banging on a garbage can in BP to get his mind back in sync so he can start smashing the ball like in Houston.

[Squirrel]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They are at $110M for next year plus whatever incentives Buxton and Maeda earns so $115-$120M.  It makes no sense to add a SP unless its a top of the rotation guy (better than Gray / Mahle) which is $25M-35M.  How much do you think they will spend?

I didn't say they would ... I said they could ... let's not turn this thread into a payroll discussion because that's not at all where it needs to go. And yes, along with pie, I want my cake and to eat it, too!

[Mark G]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They are at $110M for next year plus whatever incentives Buxton and Maeda earns so $115-$120M.  It makes no sense to add a SP unless its a top of the rotation guy (better than Gray / Mahle) which is $25M-35M.  How much do you think they will spend?

See this year and say ditto.    

[markymark12]

50/50. Still think Lewis is the future at SS for this team. 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

I like the plan. But … the Twins could still spend on all that AND Correa … I don’t think it’s an either/or here

Rec this - I agree 100%.

[Stew]

I think he stays. He gave the team advice at the deadline telling the team not to loose Miranda. That coupled with a less than allstar year should make him wait one more year. As for us using his money for a better pitching staff. We should have plenty of money. Bundy, archer , Duffy, pagan, dobnak , sano  and others will free up enough for one great pitcher. I like our starters, Ryan gray, Mahle , maeda gives us a great start for next year. Add a true ace and we are ready.

[se7799]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Actually, it might be better for us if he opts out.

Here’s the thinking. We save $35MM. With Sanchez and Sano gone, we would have a total of about $50MM extra to spend. What does that get us?

Let’s say a solid starter plus three relievers and a decent back up catcher.  The roster in ‘23 might look something like this:

OF: Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, and Celestino (Wallner and Martin on deck)

IF: Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Palacios, Miranda, Urshela, and Lewis (2nd half).

Catcher: Jeffers, FA

SP: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and FA (SWR, Winder and Ober on deck for injuries)

RP: López, Duran, Jax, Megill (yes, I still have hopes for him), Fulmer (resigned as a FA), two more FAs, plus one player within the organization.

That’s a pretty darn good lineup led by a really good starting staff, a solid relief corps, and good overall depth.

So, if Correa does opt out, things will still be ok and possibly better.

 

But who says they decide to not replace those dollars saved?  That's my fear.  Not calling them cheap...but very opportunistic.  There are definitely no promises made they will spend the dollars saved on other areas of team need.

[DocBauer]

I've become a fan. From day one he's just been a great teammate and leader for the team in general, and the infield in particular. He's done and said everything right, even to the point of taking a real interest in the trade deadline. His offense has not been as expected or hoped for, and the numbers bear that out. Still, he's been good. I have learned to understand and appreciate various statistics and analytics. But my goodness, there are so many that at times I'm just wondering what new defensive or pitching metric comes out next! Not everyone even agrees or supports some of the ones in existence now. Errors may be up, and his metrics might be down, but I've just loved watching him play defense and have not been disappointed. I've been very happy to have him, despite a good season being a "down" one.

He's said and done all the right things to the Nth degree. He and his family like it here. I'm sure those statements are true. And maybe, just maybe he DOES want to opt in, help the Twins win, and bet on himself for a 6-8yr deal following a better 2023. I can see a path where that could happen. 

But here's the reality, he's getting paid almost $70M if he stays. He's getting over $100M if he stays all 3yrs and then hits FA near 30yo and will still probably get a solid offer of 4-5yrs from someone. But if he opts out for a new 7yr deal at "just" $25M...for conversation sake...that's still $175M GUARANTEED. Simple math shows he has an additional, approximate, $75M more locked in vs playing out his Twins deal and then looking at FA again. And I think my $25M is probably conservative. No matter what way he goes, he and his family are set for life and beyond. But I just don't see sticking around...making great $ to be sure...and then trying again in a year or two when he can opt out now and play the field for even more guaranteed money even if it's never going to be $35M per.

COULD the Twins re-work his deal and add years? Absolutely. They could take on another 2yrs, keep the deal front loaded as it is now for around $35M, and then drop what would be years 4 and 5 to something around $30 and $25M. That means he can hit FA again at age 31. Is he still a viable SS then? Maybe. That gives roughly $160M in 5yrs with the Twins. So, again, he comes out ahead getting a new deal from someone else.

He only stays if he and his family truly want to stay, and he's content with a deal re-worked for $160-175M because money doesn't always buy happiness and that's enough for him, with the opportunity to still sign another 3-4yrs elsewhere to finish out his career for $X, for age 31-34/35.

I just don't see it happening. 

[se7799]

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

Maybe we need someone to start banging on a garbage can in BP to get his mind back in sync so he can start smashing the ball like in Houston.

Well....thats original.

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

His leadership and attitude has to be considered in with stats. I would love to see the Twins offer him a contract for 5-6 years.

One thing we don't do around these parts is factor in leadership and attitude.  That's why a certain purple team whose TEs on this year's roster had a combined 9 NFL catches last year sat on it's hands while a guy with the 12th most TD catches by a TE in the history of the league and a great reputation as a leader signed with another team.  That's why the same team saw a handful of it's un-vaccinated "leaders" miss time with Covid last year.  Same team will see another one of it's leaders on the other side of the line of scrimmage when the Cowboys come to town in November.  That team will probably stumble to another rudderless 8 win this year.  I know, I digress from the team at hand.  However, I've seen the team at hand play with a lack of heart this year and last while a certain Eddie (and Ehire) won a World Series in Atlanta last year.  The stuff you can't measure matters.  Somebody should tell the decision makers around here.

[DocBauer]

7 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

No, Palacios is really playing well at AAA and is a great fielder. He would be used until Lewis returns. And maybe beyond that if he plays well with Lewis also playing SS and OF.

The OP is about Correa, but I think bringing in discussion of Lewis and Palacios is relevant. 

IMO...and it's a combination of hope and belief in the kid...Lewis will recover and be an excellent ML player for years to come, even if he doesn't achieve the grandiose level of SUPERSTAR. If Correa is one and done, I could still see the Twins brining in a placeholder. Why wouldn't you? You'd be crazy not to have depth and options.

A refresher on Palacios. He was traded for Odorizzi before 2018 as a good glove SS who could hit. Except, he didn't for 2yrs and was released after those 2yrs, and re-signed by the Twins following the missed 2020 season. And suddenly, he had learned to hit again. 

2021 at AA: .259/ .340/ .439/ .779 with 17dbls, 19hr, and 18-8sb

2022 at AAA, so far: .297/ .360/ .477/ .837 with 24dbls, 10hr, and 10-7sb.

His glove appears to be legit from reputation and what we saw in limited action. He's actually improved as a hitter despite jumping up a level in 2022. Really, only his SB % has dropped. All of that coming off a very strong winter league performance. 

Is he a late bloomer after 2 failed years and a missed season? Kind of looks that way. You could knock 40-50  points off each of his quad slash line numbers and still have an effective "contributor" offensively while playing great defense. I know I'd take that over what we saw in Simmons in 2021. 

Understand, I'm a fan of Correa and NOT saying I wouldn't like him back. I just don't, as of now, see a reality where he is. And I'm not trying to blow goofy smoke of illusions to anyone that a late blooming Palacios is a long term answer or that the Twins shouldn't look at a veteran fill in option should Correa actually leave. I am only trying to look beyond tomorrow to say that if he does, indeed, move on, a single spot in the lineup doesn't have to mean automatic depression or incompetence. There may be options and the $35M saved, plus Sano $ saved, plus Rogers $ saved, and possibly Sanchez $ saved, just might be better spent on extensions and additions.

It would be great to have Correa back, somehow, some way.  I'd be happy. But the sky won't fall if he does leave. It might even open up some new opportunities.

In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy having him around and hope his recent struggles reverse themselves and he will help the Twins win the ALC and some playoff games and then we will see what happens from there.

[Linus]

Still think the chance he stays is near zero. Somebody will give him a mega deal and the last thing he wants to do is go into the free agent market any older than he has to.
 

Also for people wanting to sign him to a five year extension that just ain’t happening. He doesn’t have to take that and he won’t. 
 

I like the idea of taking the $35 million and spending it on pitching but our front office just sat out a bountiful free agent pitching market last winter. Why would we expect them to dramatically change course this off season?

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, darin617 said:

Maybe we need someone to start banging on a garbage can in BP to get his mind back in sync so he can start smashing the ball like in Houston.

 

56 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Well....thats original.

Not to mention, unsupported by facts.  His lifetime OPS on the road is .817, versus .846 at home - not a big split at all since the average batter does better at home.  All but this season was as an Astro, but this year as a Twin his home-road split is even larger, .839-.724. 

You can look up the individual seasons when the scandal was in operation, and if anything his road numbers were better than at home those two years.

So, is there more can-banging actually going on at Target Field?

But, hey, don't let facts get in the way of a comfortable narrative.

[Squirrel]

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

 

Not to mention, unsupported by facts.  His lifetime OPS on the road is .817, versus .846 at home - not a big split at all since the average batter does better at home.  All but this season was as an Astro, but this year as a Twin his home-road split is even larger, .839-.724. 

You can look up the individual seasons when the scandal was in operation, and if anything his road numbers were better than at home those two years.

So, is there more can-banging actually going on at Target Field?

But, hey, don't let facts get in the way of a comfortable narrative.

Back when he signed with us, he and Boras both commented on how well he had done at TF, with Correa himself saying ‘I see the ball really well there.’