Twins Minor League Report (8/2): Trade Deadline Shakes Up the Farm

[Steve Lein]

It was the MLB trade deadline on Tuesday, and the Minnesota Twins were one of the most aggressive buyers throughout the day. They acquired three MLB pitchers and a depth catcher, and in doing so parted with the #6, #10, #16, #19, and #20 prospects in their system per our own rankings—which will be receiving an update with a lot of changes tomorrow—as well as several other minor leaguers.

TRANSACTIONS
By acquiring MLB talent and giving up nothing but prospects, there was a lot to follow when it comes to transactions in the minors. Try to keep up…

• Trade #1: Twins acquire RHP Jorge Lopez from the Baltimore Orioles, sending off Cedar Rapids’ LHP Cade Povich (#10 TD prospect), RHP Yennier Cano (St. Paul), RHP Juan Nunez (DSL), and LHP Juan Rojas (FCL) in the deal. 
• Trade #2: Twins acquire RHP Tyler Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds, trading away St. Paul IF Spencer Steer (#6 TD Prospect), Wichita slugger Christian Encarnacion-Strand (#16 TD Prospect), and Fort Myers LHP Steve Hajjar (#19 TD prospect) in the swap.
• Trade #3: In a depth trade between division rivals, the Twins sent RHP Ian Hamilton to the Cleveland Guardians for C Sandy Leon. Leon was assigned to triple-A after the move.
• Trade #4: Twins acquire RHP Michael Fulmer from the Detroit Tigers, parting with Wichita RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long (#20 TD prospect) to get Fulmer to swap clubhouses at Target Field.
•  
• To cover the exiting players and corresponding moves with the Twins (IL: Miguel Sano (60 Day), Alex Kirilloff (10 Day); Paternity: Gilberto Celestino; DFA: Jharel Cotton, Aaron Sanchez), the St. Paul Saints received RHP Ben Heller and C Frank Nigro from the Florida Complex, as well as IF Mikey Perez from Fort Myers. OF Jake Cave also had his contract selected by the Twins.
• In Double-A, the Wind Surge transferred C Dennis Ortega from the IL to the Development List.
• For the Mighty Mussels, RHP Zaquiel Puentes was assigned from the FCL, and RHP Regi Grace was activated from the injured list.
• Did I miss any?! Probably…

SAINTS SENTINEL
St. Paul 13, Omaha 4
Box Score

If you were worried that the St. Paul Saints would lose some firepower sending off their top-hitting prospect earlier in the day, you would have been wrong. Very Wrong.

Saints starter Devin Smeltzer was spotted a big lead before he ever took the mound, and his lineup continued to provide him breathing room as the game went on.

The first three hitters of the game reached base for St. Paul, with Matt Wallner’s double scoring two before John Andreoli clubbed the team’s first home run of the game, making it 4-0 after a half-inning.

Smeltzer was able to battle through five innings, surrendering four runs of his own on five hits and a walk, but also struck out six Storm Chasers. Of his 79 pitches, 54 went for strikes (68%) including 12 swinging.

The Saints used the long ball to extend their lead throughout the rest of the game, with Michael Helman blasting a pair of homers, including a two-run blast in the fourth and solo shot in the eighth, with David Banuelos adding another two-run dinger in the sixth. 

 

Helman, in fact, was electric in every at-bat, becoming the second player in affiliated franchise history to ever collect five hits in a game, joining Jose Miranda who did the same in his triple-A debut last year on his 23rd birthday.

Relievers Juan Minaya and Drew Strotman combined to hold the Storm Chasers scoreless over the final four innings. Minaya was nearly perfect, hitting the first batter he faced with a pitch but retiring the next six in a row, including one strikeout. Strotman worked around one hit allowed and three walks in the final two frames by inducing two inning-ending double play balls.

WIND SURGE WISDOM
Wichita 3, San Antonio 4
Box Score

 

The Missions jumped on Wichita starter Casey Legumina in the first two innings, and Wichita needed to claw their way back the rest of the game.

Legumina got the first two hitters of the game, but a single and a walk were followed by a two-run triple and an RBI double that put them ahead 3-0 early. An error against the leadoff man in the second led to their fourth run a few batters later. In all, Legumina finished four innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on six hits and a walk. He struck out two.

The Wind Surge got their first run of the game in the top of third after DaShawn Keirsey Jr. led off the inning with a single. He advanced to second on a groundout, then third on a balk, before scoring on another groundout off the bat of Ernie Yake.

 

 

The bullpen trio of Bryan Sammons (2 IP, H, 3 K), Steven Cruz (1 IP, 2 K), and Denny Bentley (1 IP, BB, K) kept the Missions off the board and gave Wichita a chance the rest of the way.

In the eighth, the Wind Surge had the bases loaded with no outs, but a sac fly and RBI groundout were all they could muster after a pitching change, getting within one heading to the ninth. They went down one-two-three and fall to 51-45 on the season, but still lead the North division with a 16-12 record in the second half.

 

Julien (2-for-4, R, K) and Nash Knight (2-for-4, K) had multiple hits. The Wind Surge did not have an RBI come from a hit in the scorebook, were 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position, and left six men on base for the game.

KERNELS NUGGETS
Beloit 11, Cedar Rapids 6
Box Score

 

Luis Rijo took the mound for the Kernels and his outing was predictive of how it would go for their pitchers as a whole, and not in a good way. In his 3 2/3 innings, Rijo ended up surrendering four earned runs on six hits and a pair of walks, while only picking up one strikeout. Bradley Hanner got them through the fourth, allowing one inherited runner to score, but allowed four straight hits to open the fifth, culminated by a grand slam that put the Sky Carp in front 8-3.

Matt Mullenbach finished the fifth and added a scoreless sixth before he too, ran into some trouble in the seventh. While both his runs allowed were unearned due to an error, it was 10-3 after seven. Jon Olsen (1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 K) and Ryan Shreve (1 IP) finished off the game for the Cedar Rapids pitching staff.

The Kernels did have a lead after the third inning, thanks to an RBI single from Yunior Severino in the first that he followed up with a two-run homer in the third that made it 3-2. This continues a scorching hot start to the second half of the season for the infielder.

 

While they did rack up 13 hits as a team, they were just 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, compared to 15 hits and a 6-for-16 effort from Beloit to account for the scoring discrepancy.

Kyler Fedko (3-for-5, 2 R, 2B), Rucker (2-for-5, R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, K), Severino (2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, K), Gray (2-for-5, RBI, K), and Will Holland (2-for-4) all had multiple hits in the loss.

MUSSEL MATTERS
Bradenton 2, Fort Myers 1 (7 innings)
Box Score

 

After a two-hour delayed start, the Mighty Mussels game on Tuesday would only go seven innings. Fort Myers probably would have liked to have those two more.

Right-hander Pierson Ohl took the bump and was fantastic over his five innings. He allowed no runs, scattered five hits, and struck out seven Marauders, including all three in the fourth inning.

He left the game with a 1-0 lead, but it could have been more, as the Mighty Mussels managed to only scratch one run across the plate in the second inning after having the bases loaded with no outs. That run came in the form of a sac fly from Daniel Ozoria to score Dillon Tatum, who had drawn a walk to lead off the frame.

They loaded the bases again in the third but were unable this time to score any runs, as hits were hard to come by for the home team. They had just three singles in the game, were 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position, and left only five men on base.

After Ohl’s game was done, Malik Barrington came on for the sixth and Bradenton took advantage of two consecutive walks and a wild pitch to start the inning. Barrington would record just two outs, allowing the go-ahead runs on a flyout and single before being replaced by Zaquiel Puentes. Puentes finished the final 1 1/3 innings, striking out two in his first Mighty Mussels game of the season.

 

COMPLEX CHRONICLES
FCL Orioles 1, FCL Twins 7 (7 innings)
Box Score

 

The Twins used a five-run fifth inning to pull away from the Orioles, and kept them in check the rest of the way to secure the victory.

Veteran Ryan Horstman started on the mound and struck out all three hitters he faced in the first. Develson Aria then went the next three innings, allowing one run on four hits while striking out six. Leyner Ponce (1 IP, 2 BB, K), Cole Bellair (1 IP, H, K), and Ricardo Velez (1 IP, K) each tacked on a scoreless inning.

With the bases loaded in the fifth, the Twins got a 2-run single from Andres Centeno, which was followed by a two-run double off the bat of Gregory Duran that made the score 6-1. Willie Joe Garry Jr. tacked on an RBI single to cap the scoring.

Garry Jr. (2-for-4, RBI) and Duran (2-for-3, 2 R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB) each had two hits, and Jefferson De La Cruz added a 2-RBI triple in the fourth.

 

DOMINICAN DAILIES
DSL Twins 4, DSL Miami 0 (7+ innings)
Box Score

 

The Twins pitching staff held Miami to just four hits in the game, which was called official in the bottom of the seventh inning.

DSL standout Miguel Olivares picked up his first win of the year by finishing five innings. He allowed three hits, walked one, and punched out five, lowering his ERA in 39 total innings to just 1.15. Leonardo Lugo picked up his first save by going 1+ innings, allowing one hit, one walk, and striking out one.

The offense was led by two hits from Brayan Acuna (2-for-4, RBI) and Anderson Nova (2-for-3), and got a triple from Yasser Mercedes, and two-run homer from Ricardo Pena. Mercedes also stole two bases, giving him 20 on the season in 30 games.

 

TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY

Pitcher of the Day - Pierson Ohl, Fort Myers Mighty Mussels (5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 7 K)
Hitter of the Day - Michael Helman, St. Paul Saints (5-for-5, 4 R, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI)

PROSPECT SUMMARY
#8 - Noah Miller (Fort Myers) - 0-for-3
#12 - Matt Wallner (St. Paul) - 1-for-5, R, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K
#15 - Edouard Julien (Wichita) - 2-for-4, R, K

 

WEDNESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS
St. Paul @ Omaha (7:05 PM CDT) - RHP Ronny Henriquez (1-4, 5.71 ERA)
Wichita @ San Antonio (7:05 PM CDT) - TBD (Sawyer Gipson-Long had been scheduled)
Beloit @ Cedar Rapids (12:05 PM CDT) - LHP Aaron Rozek (7-4, 4.35 ERA)
Bradenton @ Fort Myers (6:00 PM CDT) - LHP Jaylen Nowlin (3-3, 4.24 ERA)

Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Tuesday’s games!

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[mikelink45]

The trades are interesting and maybe we're better on the short-term. I will be fascinated to see how the rosters and the minors get filled and hopefully not with a bunch of rejects from other organizations but promotions within. We really lost some exciting Young players. But I know that's the cost of doing business the way that league is run now. So now the rest of the season is going to be fascinating and what more can I ask for unless it is a chance to go to the world series

[RJA]

I would love to see Julien get a shot at AAA this summer.  I think he has earned it. 

[nicksaviking]

Maybe we all wrote Strotman off too early. Looks like he's only given up 2 ER in his last 10 appearances, several of which have been multi inning outings.

[Dman]

37 minutes ago, RJA said:

I would love to see Julien get a shot at AAA this summer.  I think he has earned it. 

Yeah they could bump Severino up to AA and then move Jullien to AAA.  Maybe they could start Lee at High A? Or they could move Mikey Perez from Low A to high A as well. technically they have enough infielders at high A as it is with Javier, Rucker and Holland who also plays centerfield so they would be fine even if Severino moved up.  Probably would balance the system more moving those two players.

[FlyingFinn]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah they could bump Severino up to AA and then move Jullien to AAA.  Maybe they could start Lee at High A? Or they could move Mikey Perez from Low A to high A as well. technically they have enough infielders at high A as it is with Javier, Rucker and Holland who also plays centerfield so they would be fine even if Severino moved up.  Probably would balance the system more moving those two players.

Agreed. 

Mikey Perez, probably temporarily to cover for Steer, is up with the Saints right now. Rucker's #'s surprised me. I didn't know he was doing this well at high A. Severino is really hitting now!

[FlyingFinn]

25 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Maybe we all wrote Strotman off too early.

He still scares me. Doing better as he doesn't let the runners score when they load the bases, but there are still runners out there against him. Baby steps.

[Dman]

Helman with an amazing night.  5 for 5 is magically dialed in. His bat slumped in July but it looks like he wants to make up for it in August.

Helman is interesting as he appears to be pretty close to a Spencer Steer clone only 2 years older.  They both started at AA with Steer outperforming him there but in AAA their numbers are very, very close.  At 26 he is probably not really considered a prospect anymore but he has a pretty balanced approach decent power and solid defense IIRC.  Losing Steer hurt but Helman could probably fill that role equally well if given the chance.

[Dman]

5 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Agreed. 

Mikey Perez, probably temporarily to cover for Steer, is up with the Saints right now. Rucker's #'s surprised me. I didn't know he was doing this well at high A. Severino is really hitting now!

Totally agree on Rucker.  He didn't look all that great to me at Low A.  Thought he might be a bust and now he and Severino are battling it out with 900 OPS's I still favor moving up Severino because he is a Switch hitter which is valuable and he is Rule V eligible so best to know if he is worthy of protection or not.

[FlyingFinn]

Helman - how does he compare to Nick Gordon? Same speed? They seem to play the same positions with what seems like the same level of effectiveness. Gordon with a big advantage in that he is already playing in the majors. Helman would provide tons more flexibility with max options left. Every time I count Gordon out after an 0 for 15, he gets 4 or 5 hits in two nights.

[Rosterman]

Looks like the Twins signed 17 of their 20 draft picks. So be interesting to see where a buynch of them land. And, yes, time to move "prospects" up rather than filling in the rosters (most notably AAA) with minor league rejects from mother teams.

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, RJA said:

I would love to see Julien get a shot at AAA this summer.  I think he has earned it. 

Definitely a guy who could be moved up at any point now.

[Dman]

43 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Helman - how does he compare to Nick Gordon? Same speed? They seem to play the same positions with what seems like the same level of effectiveness. Gordon with a big advantage in that he is already playing in the majors. Helman would provide tons more flexibility with max options left. Every time I count Gordon out after an 0 for 15, he gets 4 or 5 hits in two nights.

We think way too much a like.  Every time I count Gordon out he does something really good.  He is great in the club house, is an amazing Swiss army knife position player and the FO loves him.  I think he is here for the long haul unless his bat completely disappears.

Helman is not overly fast IIRC.  Probably Steer speed or less I think.  Certainly not Gordon type speed. Not even sure he will be added to the 40 man but if he pumps that OPS into the 900 range maybe things change.

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Maybe we all wrote Strotman off too early. Looks like he's only given up 2 ER in his last 10 appearances, several of which have been multi inning outings.

WHIP is still up around 1.60 since start of June, so the walks are still a recipe for disaster. But it has been an improvement.

[Steve Lein]

47 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Looks like the Twins signed 17 of their 20 draft picks. So be interesting to see where a buynch of them land. And, yes, time to move "prospects" up rather than filling in the rosters (most notably AAA) with minor league rejects from mother teams.

I really would love to see them send Brooks Lee to Cedar Rapids right away, but I don't think the Twins see a lot of value in the level of competition their players face immediately after being drafted (and maybe they're correct). So I expect Fort Myers where he can just be a dude in their complex for a month or two.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The trades are interesting and maybe we're better on the short-term. I will be fascinated to see how the rosters and the minors get filled and hopefully not with a bunch of rejects from other organizations but promotions within. We really lost some exciting Young players. But I know that's the cost of doing business the way that league is run now. So now the rest of the season is going to be fascinating and what more can I ask for unless it is a chance to go to the world series

They just added 18 guys in the draft and there is a 180 minor league player limit that I think gets enforced sometime in early August.  I'm not sure how many minor leaguers the Twins actually have so they could already be under the limit, but it also might mean a couple more cuts of journeyman types which tends to happen post draft.

[2wins87]

16 minutes ago, Dman said:

We think way too much a like.  Every time I count Gordon out he does something really good.  He is great in the club house, is an amazing Swiss army knife position player and the FO loves him.  I think he is here for the long haul unless his bat completely disappears.

Helman is not overly fast IIRC.  Probably Steer speed or less I think.  Certainly not Gordon type speed. Not even sure he will be added to the 40 man but if he pumps that OPS into the 900 range maybe things change.

I don't actually know how fast Helman is but he's 24 for 26 stealing bases this year and plays a lot of centerfield so I'm fairly confident he's significantly faster than Steer.

He's a guy that plays all over the place and does a lot of things quite well.  He's definitely been too far under the radar this year, and in previous years I guess too.  I was actually wondering yesterday if he might get the spot Cave did with the outfield so banged up.

I think Gordon is definitely a good comp for the type of player Helman might be from the other side of the plate.  Statistically Helman's minor league career has been a bit better than Gordon's though not by a ton.  They had similar K rates in the 15-20% range, Helman has walked just a touch more, and Helman also showed a bit more power early on.  We have to keep in mind that Helman is just a couple months younger than Gordon right now so Gordon was much younger at every level, even when repeating AAA. Helman also probably wouldn't even be an emergency option at short, though he has had more experience at other infield positions than Gordon.

Gordon is currently putting up a 109 wRC+ in the majors, so if Helman does that any time in the next few years that would probably be a pretty fantastic outcome for him.  I think with Gordon, the disappointment from high expectations several years ago has made it hard to readjust and see that he's actually a very good player in the role he has. 

[nicksaviking]

53 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Definitely a guy who could be moved up at any point now.

I definitely want to see him keep moving up, but I'd guess the 31% K rate is giving the team pause.

[nicksaviking]

39 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

I really would love to see them send Brooks Lee to Cedar Rapids right away, but I don't think the Twins see a lot of value in the level of competition their players face immediately after being drafted (and maybe they're correct). So I expect Fort Myers where he can just be a dude in their complex for a month or two.

Considering Noah Miller doesn't look anywhere near ready for a promotion, I could see them sending Lee directly to Cedar Rapids.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Maybe we all wrote Strotman off too early. Looks like he's only given up 2 ER in his last 10 appearances, several of which have been multi inning outings.

I think I wrote him off at the time of the trade. Strotman is still handing out free passes, but at least he's not giving up so many hits. His season BABIP is a very high .353 and that's been lower over the past two weeks, but the question is why. Is it because he was unlucky before or is it because he struggles with control and hitters can sit on pitches and make Strotman hittable? In other words, should Strotman have a high BABIP by nature or has he been really unlucky in AAA this year? My money is on the former.

In regard to multiple inning outings, the former starter has 3 in the last 10 games. Two blowouts and a double-header. 

Last 10 games
10 G, 13.2 IP, 11.20 K/9 (28.3%), 5.27 BB/9 (13.3% BB), 1.24 WHIP, .281 BABIP (estimate)

Bottom line for me is a 5.27 BB/9 in AAA doesn't translate to MLB well and control has always been the issue for Strotman.

[2wins87]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I definitely want to see him keep moving up, but I'd guess the 31% K rate is giving the team pause.

Julien's K rate is 24%.  Not great but not too bad.  Always gotta use PAs for K% rather than AB, particularly for a guy who walks a lot so the difference between PA and AB is large.

It's been good to see him getting to his power again lately.  A guy who doesn't have great contact skills and relies on drawing walks probably doesn't translate all that well to the majors if he doesn't have power to back it up.  If he keeps showing solid power I'll be encouraged.

[Dman]

21 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I don't actually know how fast Helman is but he's 24 for 26 stealing bases this year and plays a lot of centerfield so I'm fairly confident he's significantly faster than Steer.

He's a guy that plays all over the place and does a lot of things quite well.  He's definitely been too far under the radar this year, and in previous years I guess too.  I was actually wondering yesterday if he might get the spot Cave did with the outfield so banged up.

I think Gordon is definitely a good comp for the type of player Helman might be from the other side of the plate.  Statistically Helman's minor league career has been a bit better than Gordon's though not by a ton.  They had similar K rates in the 15-20% range, Helman has walked just a touch more, and Helman also showed a bit more power early on.  We have to keep in mind that Helman is just a couple months younger than Gordon right now so Gordon was much younger at every level, even when repeating AAA. Helman also probably wouldn't even be an emergency option at short, though he has had more experience at other infield positions than Gordon.

Gordon is currently putting up a 109 wRC+ in the majors, so if Helman does that any time in the next few years that would probably be a pretty fantastic outcome for him.  I think with Gordon, the disappointment from high expectations several years ago has made it hard to readjust and see that he's actually a very good player in the role he has. 

Thanks!  I haven't followed him much and could not remember what his speed was like. Might have gotten him mixed up with Michael Davis as I think they came in together in the same draft.  Didn't even know they had him playing in center.  I just started looking closer at him when they moved him to AAA and I think he had a good start there and then slumped a bit.  

After his 525 OPS in 2019 I kind of thought that might be it for Helman.  He had a solid 2021 but was old for the level.  He ticked the bat up another level this year and he has some power now.  I like your comp with Gordon but do you think the Twins would add Helman to the 40 man after this year?

[nicksaviking]

28 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Julien's K rate is 24%.  Not great but not too bad.  Always gotta use PAs for K% rather than AB, particularly for a guy who walks a lot so the difference between PA and AB is large.

It's been good to see him getting to his power again lately.  A guy who doesn't have great contact skills and relies on drawing walks probably doesn't translate all that well to the majors if he doesn't have power to back it up.  If he keeps showing solid power I'll be encouraged.

My mistake, I grabbed the wrong figures. K% seems doable.

[2wins87]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

After his 525 OPS in 2019 I kind of thought that might be it for Helman.  He had a solid 2021 but was old for the level.  He ticked the bat up another level this year and he has some power now.  I like your comp with Gordon but do you think the Twins would add Helman to the 40 man after this year?

That's a good question, I don't really know, I'm guessing he's in the bubble group.

Seems with his positional versatility he could easily fill a utility role and he seems ready for a major league trial.  Maybe he could sneak through the draft on the fact that he'll be turning 27 at the beginning of next season.  Or if he were picked a team might not be too invested in hanging on to him if he struggles early do to his age.

I think the FO likes to bring in a few veteran guys to fill the AAA depth roles, though I often wonder if the marginal prospects might often be the best options.  Palacios did end up getting the fill-in shortstop role this year, though maybe if there had been a rule 5 draft he wouldn't have still been around.  I would hope they considering giving him a 40-man slot just to be an injury fill in at basically any position.  Seems like a useful role and we can pretty much guarantee he'd be needed multiple times next year.

[bean5302]

Just saw Chase Petty was promoted to A+. I really do hate that trade.

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I definitely want to see him keep moving up, but I'd guess the 31% K rate is giving the team pause.

Yeah, his K-rate is 24.5%, along with a 19.7% walk rate this year. This is definitely not an issue.

[Steve Lein]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Just saw Chase Petty was promoted to A+. I really do hate that trade.

For me there's not much to hate about it, though it was kind of surprising Petty was the name at the time. The highest ceiling I've seen for him, is that he becomes exactly what Sonny Gray already is and has been for years, a #2 type starter. So it was a Now vs. Future play. And that probability he reaches that ceiling isn't that high for High School pitchers to begin with, even worse for one's known primarily for velocity. He's been okay in Cincinnati's system so far, not dominant by any means, and also got rocked in his first A+ outing over the weekend.

We like to dream on prospects (I am one of the guiltiest ones of that!), but it's still a fools errand, especially on pitchers (TINSTAAPP and all).

[DJL44]

Helman is pretty certain not to get selected in Rule 5. He's 26 and having a decent season in AAA - that isn't going to impress anyone. Most teams have their own guy just like this in their system.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Steve Lein said:

For me there's not much to hate about it, though it was kind of surprising Petty was the name at the time. The highest ceiling I've seen for him, is that he becomes exactly what Sonny Gray already is and has been for years, a #2 type starter. So it was a Now vs. Future play. And that probability he reaches that ceiling isn't that high for High School pitchers to begin with, even worse for one's known primarily for velocity. He's been okay in Cincinnati's system so far, not dominant by any means, and also got rocked in his first A+ outing over the weekend.

We like to dream on prospects (I am one of the guiltiest ones of that!), but it's still a fools errand, especially on pitchers (TINSTAAPP and all).

Last year he was in high school... this year he was pitching so well the Reds promoted him to A+ ball with a month and a half left on the season. That's serious fast tracking and it doesn't happen if the Reds aren't very, very impressed with what they saw. Twins "stud" Matt Canterino was being fawned over in A+ at age 23 and in his 3rd professional season after drafting him out of college, in between IL stints. Petty is 19, in his 2nd season and out of high school. Petty's ceiling was always Ace (as good as Gray used to be when he was young). Very high risk Petty would not be able to develop his changeup into a plus offering required for that, but last year in his exposure to hitters at the complex, the reports were glowing. Petty looked far more like a pitcher than many people expected. He was not a thrower. Better control than expected. Changeup and slider better than expected. The only other big concern was Petty's ability to remain healthy, which he has so far. Considering the Twins had, literally, nothing they could count on in the minors who looked like they had Ace potential, I was not happy with this trade. It's also worth noting the Reds took Chase Petty for Sonny Gray. That should tell you a lot about how the Reds saw Petty's value.

Of the 125 pitchers with 70 innings or more this year, Gray has produced the 53rd highest fWAR. Meaning, he's provided the value of a very good #3, relative to his peers. Gray's actual production per inning pitched is certainly higher than that; however, he's been a pitcher who's struggled with injuries for most of the past decade. Now that he's in decline, his velocity is dropping and his metrics are fading. Gray's also being paid $12MM per year with the Twins having control only one more season. Gray provides a lot of surplus value at $12MM year at this point, and I don't deny that. I just would have rather parted with something other than Petty to get him.

[Steve Lein]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Gray provides a lot of surplus value at $12MM year at this point, and I don't deny that. I just would have rather parted with something other than Petty to get him.

I don't disagree with much of anything you say, really. We have a different value calculation, I suppose. Petty definitely has kid gloves on him, he'll probably end up around 80-90 innings pitched total this year.

Good, not great, numbers as a 19 year-old. Probably makes optimism for him higher, and then I look at Andrew Painter's numbers (also can look at Jackson Jobe's and Frank Mazzicato's for that TINSTAAPP HS pitcher comparison). 

I thought the pitcher would have been in the close to the majors mold, specifically Winder, but there would have been more included in that type of deal, too. Was hard for me to argue the 1-for-1 swap, even if that guy was Chase Petty.