Grade the Minnesota Twins’ 2022 Trade Deadline!

[Steve Lein]

 1.   What grade do you give Falvey & Levine for these moves?

Easy A+ for me. I was stating I wanted a top-end of our rotation starter, an impact bullpen arm and another setup guy, and maybe a catcher to add defensive depth.

They did all of that.

And in my opinion, they did all of that without losing any prospect of severe consequence. I was all in for Mahle/Diaz for Steer/Winder, haha, though I didn't think Diaz was actually available. Steer is a really good prospect, but no route to playing time on the big league club. Losing their lefty starters, Hajjar and Povich, will probably hurt the most, but these weren't guys at the top of the system currently. They also just drafted Priellipp, who I have far higher expectations of.

Lot of people upset about losing CES because they know his incredible hitting numbers, but I'll be surprised if he ever primarily plays a defensive position in the majors. There's not a lot of value in pure DH's unless you're one of the absolute best hitters in the league, which he would be rated a lot higher on lists if that was the thought, IMO.

 2.  What do you think of what was done? Does it make the team better? Why or why not?

Not just for this year (should be favored to win the division now. We'll see, of course), but for next year as well. When Maeda comes back healthy next year, the potential rotation is Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, Ober/Winder/Archer/Paddock/Dobnak/etc... On paper it's a top 10 rotation top-to-bottom, with depth.

Lopez/Fulmer bump everyone down a notch in the bullpen this year, and Lopez is a great weapon next year too. Alcala and Maeda could come back and make an even bigger difference this year yet as well.

 3.  Are the Twins better suited to make the postseason this year? If they make the postseason, are they better suited to win a game and (possibly) a series if/when they get there?

Yes, as they have to be more likely to take the division. Lineup needs to get healthy, for sure. Compared to the what they've had in the recent past, a Gray/Mahle/Ryan playoff rotation is definitely more likely to win a game/series.

 4.  How do these moves change the outlook for 2023 and beyond?

See #2. The future is even brighter than this season now, IMO.

Edited August 3, 2022 by Steve Lein

[jun]

I think it cost the Twins too much prospect capital for what they got. I really think CES is going to be a star in the future and he should have been kept. Just look what the Yankees got. I would give it a B- or C.

[Doctor Gast]

17 hours ago, Brandon said:

I give a solid A.  The only concern I have from today is why the Twins DFA'd Cotton instead of Joe Smith? He seems to be done, the way he has pitched lately.  He was unscored upon in his first 12.33 innings and has given up 14 Earned Runs in his last 14 innings with 7 HRs allowed.  Cotton on the other hand has pitched pretty well.  He has given up 7 HRs as well but over 35 innings and he has fewer hits allowed and fewer runs with more strikeouts.  

Also I wonder if the Twins could have traded for the Cubs C since no one else did.... while I don' t think he would be good defensively, he would have hit better than anyone else we have for C.

Outside of that, Today was flawless.  

I'm with you Brandon. I don't see why they sent down both A Sanchez & DFA Cotton. We need them to implement long relief to take off the pressure from short relief & rotation.

FO adressed our biggest needs so I gave them an A-. I too would've liked a bigger addition at catcher. They might have been in on Contreras, since our catcher trade didn't come thru until only a few minutes left on the clock.

Some fault this FO for not picking another SP like Rodon. I differ because as good as Rodon is, he doesn't have a full season in his arm, IMO his arm is about spent. One big problem that wasn't addressed was long relief, we have some inhouse arms like Smeltzer/A Sanchez/ Cotton but even those aren't utilized .

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, Number3 said:

Meanwhile the Twins actually played a game last night. Tigers won 5-3.  I admittedly am an out of touch old fart boomer but I simply do not understand the volume of chatter about how to manage the roster none of which actually happens. The acquired players can fog a mirror but that is about it and none were ever mentioned by the GMs on this board as possible or desirable acquisitions as I predicted.

 

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Um, that's just patently false. There has been hype all over this site about Mahle, Lopez, and Fulmer for months. Maybe you didn't see it but that doesn't mean it didn't exist. Hell, I started a thread with a billion comments about Mahle just a few days ago.

 

Or try this one from a month ago. I personally have been on the Mahle bandwagon for quite some time.

[Scott51104]

I assigned a "B" but felt it was a 3.5.

I will, however, be more diligent in checking the box scores for Cin and Balt in the years to come

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-isnt-your-typical-deadline-winners-and-losers-post/

[cHawk]

3 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

Compared to the what they've had in the recent past, a Gray/Mahle/Ryan playoff rotation is definitely more likely to win a game/series.

Maybe, I would argue that Maeda/Berrios/Pineda in 2020 was better. However, that series was NOT lost by the starting pitching. It was lost by the offense, the bullpen, and Rocco.

[tony&rodney]

I'm not a big fan of the current guys running the team for various reasons, yet I gave this trade deadline an A. I hoped the Twins could acquire the Lopez twins, Rodon, and Robertson. Mahle, J. Lopez, and Fulmer are all excellent and Twins fans should be delighted. This changes the entire calculus of the team. The one area of concern could not be addressed via trades and that is the health of the lineup. The Twins need a few breaks and they are due some good fortune. This team can absolutely win the AL Central if they play well.

The postseason is a different animal and a few hot guys in the lineup, timely play, and solid pitching can definitely win a series. There isn't any point or reason to attach past history to a group of players who couldn't even identify those losses in the past. While I was certainly willing to give up another half dozen prospects for a couple more pitchers, the Falvine boys done us proud and the Twins should match up better with good teams now than they did before the trades. Toronto is our first test, although fans should not forget the handicap of being down in the outfield. Let's hope Gordon and Cave step forward and that our stars align (Arraez, Buxton, Correa, and Miranda).

[stringer bell]

I voted "A", but considered it a choice between A- and B+. the bullpen is much improved. My sincere hope is that the innings saved by pulling starters early can provide enough rest and reduced stress to more routinely go 6 innings. Mahle supposedly is healthy and went six in his last outing. If Ryan, Mahle and Gray can go six more often than not, the bullpen is in position to be much improved. Fulmer and Lopez add two plus arms. Thielbar and Duran can be placed in setup roles and Duffey, Pagan and Jax can be properly placed.

The reason I voted A over B was that both Lopez and Mahle are under team control for next year. I think both the rotation and 'pen are improved for 2023. Further, I think they will make a run at a starter like Rodon in the offseason. Health will determine if the club makes the playoffs in 2022.

[Monkeypaws]

If the grade is solely based on addressing glaring weaknesses, they did A work with Fulmer and especially Lopez. The Twins have 19 blown saves this year out of 40 save opportunities, darn near half. They addressed that in spades.

If the grade is based on asset management, maybe a little lower goes the grade: that was one hell of a shopping spree, and the system took a mighty blow.

However, proven MLB talent trumps potential, so what the hell.

[bean5302]

It's an "A" from me. The Twins' farm system was in bad shape with no elite prospects, yet the Twins managed to acquire a solid starter with an extra year of service time and two good relief pitchers without forfeiting any of their team controlled, young, rising MLB talent.

The farm is now gutted, but I think it was the only logical move. Kudos to Falvey for making the bold, and correct decision.

[DocBauer]

1] My grade? Definitely an A, though I lean slightly toward an A-. I like Fulmer, he's a beast against RH hitters, didn't cost a lot, especially considering SGL has to be protected and probably doesn't fit in to 2023 for the Twins at all. But I would have liked to toss in a flier and get someone just a notch better who maybe had a little more proven experience in a late inning role. Then again, he's only been a full time RP for 2yrs, and with solid success doing so. Not 30yo until next March, he might be a good re-sign, similar to Romo a few years ago. And newly transitioned, there may be a couple good years of life left in his arm.

I'd almost give Mahle an A by himself. He's only 27yo, just entering what should be his prime years as a SP, and has numbers away from Cincinnati that virtually scream top of the rotation starter.

I don't dislike Leon as a veteran fill-in at catcher. He's a quality defensive catcher with experience and some post season experience as well. And the #1 responsibility/job of a catcher is game calling and working with your staff, not offense. Still, even for an arm the Twins liked enough to keep for 2yrs and basically NEVER allow him to actually pitch, I was hoping for a solid backup rental who we might expect to hit .200, not hope for it. But I'm splitting some fine hairs here, which is why I grade an A.

NOTE: I think it was about a week ago where Nick included a "wild hair" idea of acquiring a cheap back of the rotation SP like Hill from Boston for a flier. I want to say he suggested a recovering Sano??? (Cant recall exactly). There was a part of me holding out hope for a rabbit out of the hat for a similar rental for some low level fliers that might include some A ball players who hadn't put it together yet. Think Sabato or Cavaco and similar. But I think that was a pipedream that would have cost more with zero guarantee to  be better than what's on hand.

2] Does this make the Twins better? Hell yes! We can't buy health. Wish we could. But the rotation is better. The pen is better and deeper. Leon gives an actual, bona-fide, experienced, ML catcher to fill in.

3] Are the Twins a better bet to make the post season and maybe win a series? Yes! This IS a good team, but had holes. The largest holes have been plugged with a quality SP to give us 3 guys you can actually feel give you a chance to win a game. (Talking post season). And the pen is better and deeper, which moves other guys down a slot. And they didn't move a single roster player to do all of this. Remember, as ALC champions, we get a 1st round 3 game series at home. How do you like our chances now? 

Debates about a 4th SP in the post season are valid. But really, except for some truly outstanding staffs, how many times can you recall a 4th starter making or breaking a post season series?

4] How do these moves affect 2023 and beyond? I have a 2-part answer:

A] It's easy to say "prospects are just prospects until they prove otherwise". And that might be true. But Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, and others were still 'just prospects" at one time. Don't kid yourself, while the ML roster stayed intact, the Twins gave up some quality prospects. I'd bet really money Steer turns out to be a really good ML 2B/3B who can cover SS, and who will hit and produce. CES might end up hurting. While he might not stick at 3B, and he has to prove his bat won't be a 2nd coming of Sano, the hit and power tools look real. I saw him as a 1B/DH option that might replace Kirilloff if injury persists. And while Povich and Hajjar are in A ball and a couple years away, and no clue how good they might turn out, they are intriguing young LH arms in only their 1st full season, and showing promise for an organization short of LHP.

The good news is "prospects are still prospects" and the system certainly wasn't decimated for talent. Steer didn't fit in anytime soon as a full time player and there are a couple very interesting guys coming up to fill his roll. The same may be true of CES. 1ST round pick Lee comes to mind as well. I really didn't like giving up BOTH Povich and Hajjar, but the addition of maybe/probably as good or better Priellip mitigates the losses. Have to give up to get. And again, I think we gave up some nice prospects, but the system isn't decimated, and there is a draft and international signing every year to add more talent.

B] Barring any more surprise set-backs...and baseball gods know we're do for a little better luck...the roster is looking very good for 2023 and beyond with the only real question mark being SS, which I'm not going to address here. There is also backup catcher to consider, as well as a possible 4th OF, that again, doesn't have to be immediately address here and now. Again, forgoing SS for the moment, the principal, daily roster is set, talented, and fairly young all across the board.

These trades, and other previous moves, gives the Twins a 2023 rotation, in no particular order, of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Ober, and Winder, with potential depth pieces in Smeltzer, Dobnak, Sands (who MIGHT move to the pen), and Paddack when ready sometime in June/July. And we're not even talking a rebounded Balazovic, or SWR, or Varland and others. I don't believe the Twins will pick up Bundy's $11M option, but frankly, he's been better than I expected. He's been up and down, but far from a disaster. He's actually been pretty solid, except for a handful of really bad games. And the pen hasn't helped his numbers with a number of inherited runs scored. I'm still confused about Archer's mutual contract, but I doubt he's back. Money to be better spent elsewhere to sign an actual, solid ML SP to compete and provide depth for what those 2 made in 2022 makes tons of sense. 

(Don't tell anyone I said this, but I kinda hope Aaron Sanchez accepts a AAA assignment and comes back on a milb deal in 2023 as a flier. His velocity and stuff looked pretty good in his Twins start, even if it was against Detroit. Rehab fliers sometimes turn out).

The 2023 pen now has Lopez, Duran, Jax, a recovered Alcala, a potential re-sign in Fulmer, Thielbar probably, and Moran as potential starting points. Payroll and just learning from experience that you just can't always trust fliers and prospects suddenly stepping in to a role should make the FO more aware and aggressive to add at least ONE quality arm that doesn't cost a fortune. I deliberatdly left Canterino out of the rotation discussion because as much as it kills me to say it, it just might be best to get him healthy and just transition him to the pen immediately and just see if we don't have another Duran. Maybe he's just  better built for that role. 

Whole point being, this team is better built and better prepared now for 2023 than I dare say it was for 2022. But the deadline moves enhanced 2022, added to 2023 and beyond as long as they stay smart and keep adding here and there and keep drafting as well as they have been doing the past 5yrs.

[solomon1930]

"B" for me.  I would have liked us to add an outfield bat with 3 of our outfielders on the IL

and Buxton a question mark on most days.  Hopefully Cave seizes this opportunity.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's an "A" from me. The Twins' farm system was in bad shape with no elite prospects, yet the Twins managed to acquire a solid starter with an extra year of service time and two good relief pitchers without forfeiting any of their team controlled, young, rising MLB talent.

The farm is now gutted, but I think it was the only logical move. Kudos to Falvey for making the bold, and correct decision.

In what way is it gutted? Not even close. 

[stringer bell]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's an "A" from me. The Twins' farm system was in bad shape with no elite prospects, yet the Twins managed to acquire a solid starter with an extra year of service time and two good relief pitchers without forfeiting any of their team controlled, young, rising MLB talent.

The farm is now gutted, but I think it was the only logical move. Kudos to Falvey for making the bold, and correct decision.

 

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

In what way is it gutted? Not even close. 

I think that over the past year and a half a lot of prospect talent has graduated. Pitchers Ryan (acquired in a trade), Winder, Duran, Jax and Moran, position players Lewis, Larnach and Kirilloff will all have lost their rookie status in 2021 or 2022. The farm system had depth, which contributed to the two Class A teams being at the top of their league. Now, with so many prospects traded, I don't think the system is as deep (for now). 

Steer and Cano were probably the only players who had a chance to help in 2022-23. The Twins acquired two pitchers who should be big assets in 2023 in exchange for prospects. I think it was a good choice.

[nicksaviking]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

In what way is it gutted? Not even close. 

It's thinner for sure, but most of the top prospects (relative term, I know) are still there.

[Steve71]

I voted A, but I would rate it an A- on a finer scale.

Assuming Fulmer continues to deal out of the pen, I would like the Twins to move aggressively to extend him for a couple years.  That also improves the trade rating.

I love Rondon, but since he would be a rental it makes sense to try and sign him off-season as a FA rather than giving up prospects now.  They have room on the payroll to sign him even if Correa opts in (which he wont), and that would give the Twins a very strong rotation on paper for 2023 if the arms can stay healthy.

[Steve Lein]

18 hours ago, cHawk said:

Maybe, I would argue that Maeda/Berrios/Pineda in 2020 was better. However, that series was NOT lost by the starting pitching. It was lost by the offense, the bullpen, and Rocco.

That's fair. I'm still mad Berrios was pulled after a huge strikeout that he was pumped about. Felt like it took the air right out of the team as a whole.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

On 8/3/2022 at 8:37 AM, nicksaviking said:

Wanted to give them an A, but gave it a B because two of Archer, Bundy and Smeltzer are still going to be in the rotation to muck things up.

Great trades yesterday, the FO made some surprising moves. I'm guessing they were told no though about increasing the payroll more than the couple million that the new guys cost. I would have loved to have another stable even if boring 4th starter who could competently go five innings.

Aaron Gleeman said on their Patreon podcast yesterday that they took on 5+MM in salary with these trades.

[Minny505]

I don't know how you could give this anything but an A. 

Twins increased their playoff odds by more than any other team according to Fangraphs, including the Padres! Their World Series odds were 4th largest gain.

They got arguably the second best SP moved at the deadline. Between age, health, and performance (look at peripherals and statcast people), I would take Mahle over Montas right now 100% of the time...and he costs less in dollars and prospects! Pedigree does not make one a better MLB pitcher.

They got arguably the second best reliever dealt. (Hader is a lock for the best)

Plus a solid setup man to boot that now gets to play a 6/7th inning role on this team.

What the Padres did is unprecedented. No team has ever remade their roster like that at the deadline. If that is what it takes to get an A, only one team in MLB history has ever gotten an A for their trade deadline by your measure.

[Minny505]

On 8/2/2022 at 5:09 PM, Rosterman said:

What makes it a plus is that the Guardians and White Sox were basically inactive.

Yes, I shudder when the Twins starting outfield tonight is Cave, Gordon and Contreras with a bench of Beckham and Hamilton, and Archer and his four innings is on the mound.

Two unknown pitchers from the DSL/FCL. One with exceptional promise, but aren't they all at that age.

Povich and Hajjar will be quickly replaced by current draft class members.

Gipson-Long is behind Balazovic, Henriquez, Sands, Enlow, Varland, Canterino at best.

Steer would be a wonderful reserve infielder, perhaps moreso than Gordon. But the Twins also have to think about Helman in an already crowded potential 40-man roster field.

The Twins got rid of two "hypens" and CES was one showing great punch. He will be one to watch.

With all the action also comes other casualities. Sanchez, Cotton and one other member of the 26 will be gone in a day. Godoy was designated. All the players back in trade are better than others currently on the roster. That is what counts. Even L:eon would be a great defensive catcher behind-the-plate (someone has to contribute to the 27 outs each game), so Sanchez can DH more now that the Sano issue has been...solved.

The weakest division saw just one team attempt to make improvements. And that was The Minnesota Twins!

P.S. The Twins now have 10 players on the 60-day, at least half will be retained on the 2023 spring roster. Can they get healthy, stay healthy, and play healthy?

It is incredible what a MLB first impression and reputation will do for the leash you get from fans...even 5 years later.

Sanchez is a below league average bat and has been now for three cumulative seasons. I don't think that's coming back.

On the active roster in yesterdays game, for example, Sanchez was the 9th best hitter on the team, and it's a sizable gap to 8th. About 80 points or so of OPS. Even Jeffers, who many on here pan for his hitting, is having a better season with the stick than Sanchez.

I don't want him anywhere near DH unless it is the occasional spot start against a lefty.

Sanchez is a solid, above-average defensive catcher though, who is not going to hurt you with his bat. I do like him as the starting catcher.

[cHawk]

15 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I don't know how you could give this anything but an A. 

Twins increased their playoff odds by more than any other team according to Fangraphs, including the Padres! Their World Series odds were 4th largest gain.

They got arguably the second best SP moved at the deadline. Between age, health, and performance (look at peripherals and statcast people), I would take Mahle over Montas right now 100% of the time...and he costs less in dollars and prospects! Pedigree does not make one a better MLB pitcher.

They got arguably the second best reliever dealt. (Hader is a lock for the best)

Plus a solid setup man to boot that now gets to play a 6/7th inning role on this team.

What the Padres did is unprecedented. No team has ever remade their roster like that at the deadling If that is what it takes to get an A. only one team in MLB history has ever gotten an A for their trade deadline by your measure.

Concur.

Mahle

Montas

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I give the FO an A. What were the Twins needs, according to 95% of TD and according to Seth? 2 relievers, a starter and a cheap  second string catcher. What did the FO get? Exactly what was needed. The AL Central is ripe for the taking. The FO did not sit complacently by and watch the other teams improve. Yesterday's game was a microcosm of what the Twins needed and what the Twins got. Fulmer and Lopez were in command on the mound and exuded confidence which I could feel through my computer screen. Leon was an encourager behind the plate, nodding and gesturing to his pitchers. I like that. And he was in command behind the plate from day one with a new team and a new, young pitcher, whom he had never caught before. A pretty incredible performance by Leon on the defensive side and in pitch calling. I was interested in one point in the game, Leon seemed to be insisting that Ryan throw more high fastballs, Ryan complied and the result was a strikeout.  I am so pumped now with the relief pitching. Plus the Twins had to fill a starting position by either AAAA pitchers, which would tax the bullpen, or by trading for a pitcher who threw 180 innings successfully last year...and the FO was successful in trading for Mahle.  Plus Lopez and Mahle will be around next year too. Fulmer is just a rental, but the Twins only paid a rental price for him. Leon was  obtained for little cost. Oh by the way, how did you like Leon's 2 run double and his single? I need to end this post so I can contact my buddy, Paulie Walnuts, at Satriale's Pork Store in Kearny, New Jersey and lay down a bet on the Twins for October.  

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

In what way is it gutted? Not even close. 

I'm not sure what great prospects you think the Twins have left to elevate the farm, but Steer, Encarnation-Strand, Hajjar and Povich were legitimate prospects in a system which was already very much quantity over quality.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not sure what great prospects you think the Twins have left to elevate the farm, but Steer, Encarnation-Strand, Hajjar and Povich were legitimate prospects in a system which was already very much quantity over quality.

One of those guys was in the top 100, and two in the top ten for this team. That's not a gutting at all. Would I like more elite prospects, sure, but that has nothing to do with gutting the minors at all. 

[Minny505]

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

One of those guys was in the top 100, and two in the top ten for this team. That's not a gutting at all. Would I like more elite prospects, sure, but that has nothing to do with gutting the minors at all. 

Correct. What the Padres and Mariners did is gutting a farm system. The the Twins, for the most part, gave up what the inmates on the 24th floor of The Platform got on the trip down. 

[solomon1930]

On 8/3/2022 at 1:01 PM, MTV said:

The Twin’s 4 issues at the deadline: Bullpen, Rotation, Catcher, Outfield. 
 

Bullpen-A plus. You got exactly what you needed, 2 high-quality arms (and for fairly little I might add)

Rotation-B. You added Tyler Mahle, who will be a key component in your rotation for 2 years. could’ve used another 4th starter but this is alright.

Catching-B-. You didn’t need a lot, just a backup you can live with for a month or 2. Did want a slightly bigger acquisition though.

Outfield-F. With Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach injured, you needed to go out and get 1 solid outfielder, maybe a Anthony Santander or a Joc Pederson or even a Ben Gamel, yet you stood still, and now we have to deal with Jake Cave and Mark Contreras until September.

Overall deadline grade: B

Garlick to IL today and Buxton with what he is dealing with.  Getting an outfielder would have been huge.