What is the ceiling for Joe Ryan?

[cHawk]

So, Joe Ryan.

Joe Ryan was acquired in a trade between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins in July of the 2021 MLB Season. The Twins sent DH Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay in exchange for RHP Joe Ryan and RHP Drew Strotman. Right now, that's looking like a damn good trade for the Twins. Cruz was highly mediocre in his two months with Tampa. Joe Ryan, on the other hand, looked promising in 2021. Maybe a future TOR arm for the Twins.

The Twins really believed in Joe Ryan, evidenced by the fact that he started on opening day. His 2022 season thus far has been...uhh...

...mixed to say the least. Ryan has nonetheless been a solid starter for the Twins in 2021, but his 'slump' has called into question whether or not he actually has the tools to make him a TOR arm one day. However, sophomore slumps are a thing and Ryan only pitched 26.2 innings in 2021, so 2022 is his first full season as a starter.

Questions for Discussion
 1.  What is the ceiling for Joe Ryan? (vote above)
 2. What do you expect from Joe Ryan in 2023? Why?

[David HK]

Not sure, but lately he seems to be looking towards the floor.

[CRF]

It's still pretty early, but he looks to be a solid #3 give or take. That's what I voted for.  With more experience, maybe a little better than that.

[notoriousgod71]

He's not as good as berrios and people questioned whether he was even a 2.

[tony&rodney]

Ryan has a "feel" for pitching. This is important. He spins the ball and locates his fastball well. That said, he will have a tough time against patient teams and professional hitters. Joe Ryan projects as a fair #3 and a good #4/#5 guy.

[chpettit19]

Ceiling? #2 starter. Likely outcome? #3-5 starter.

[Doctor Gast]

There is a lot of room for debate but I imagine you're basing it in the Twins rotation because #1, 2, 3, 4, 5 on a different team could make a lot of difference and #1 on the Twins doesn't neccessarily mean he's an ace or the competition he gets from the other pitchers.

He could very likely become the #1 for the Twins and many believe he has been but he isn't an ace. Or we could get an ace and some people believe Gray would be #2 and that Ryan would be # 3. So it's all relative. Could he become an ace? I haven't seen enough of him to say.

[gunnarthor]

It's a bit hard to define now since starters aren't asked to do as much - is he who he is because that's how the Twins run things, or is this his ceiling and the Twins are protecting him? But he's pretty much a traditional back end starter, which isn't a bad thing. Over a full season, he'll likely produce somewhere about 2 WAR and roughly a league average ERA+.

At the same time, he wouldn't sniff the rotation for the Yankees or several other playoff caliber teams,

[Squirrel]

He might become a #2 type starter, but I think his ceiling, practically speaking is a solid #3

[Mike Sixel]

I think he's a 3 most of the time for the next few years, which means some great stars and some awful ones, but mostly good but not great ones. I'm guessing 2-3 war a year. That number would be higher, imo, if they let him go one more inning a game, more on the 3 end. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 8/1/2022 at 8:46 PM, chpettit19 said:

Ceiling? #2 starter. Likely outcome? #3-5 starter.

This is where I’m at too.

also, he’s pitched 85 innings in 22, he pitched 92 (plus the Olympics) last year and nothing in 2020.

Sure, he trained in 2020 and 2021, but it’s going to take him a year or more to rebuild the stamina to get back to 120+ innings.

his workload is being managed, and sophomore slump and all… I’m not worried that he’s had a rough couple months.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya. I think people forget how little he's actually pitched before this year, and that this is his first full year in the majors. If he progresses even a little, it will be great. 

[bean5302]

I'm going to say there is a huge difference between a #3 and a #4/5 guy in my opinion. A #3 guy can take a step back and still be an effective starter, but if a #4-5 guy takes one step back, they're AAAA caliber. The #3 guy is still somebody you expect will give you a solid start in the playoffs. They add a lot of value.

I think Joe Ryan's ceiling is #3, and I think he stands a fair chance of getting there.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO it depends on how ace is defined, is it the the old school (pre-covid) 30+ starts 200 plus innings obviously best stating pitcher on the team, then I say he has no chance until he leaves the Twins and then maybe not even then.

Or is it the 30 starts 180 plus innings. Then he will more than likely become an ace by next year, I am not sure he tops out any higher than Berrios ever has, not trying to bring up that old debate but is Ryan's future the best guy on a good staff or a good pitcher on good staff/best guy on a mediocre staff? I see the second option.

Not to get off topic but I just don't see the twins letting their starting pitchers pitch like St. Louis, Houston, Atlanta or even Seattle does for example, so it will be tough to ever see them have an "ACE". I think they have a philosophy and stick pretty tight to that ( not arguing it is good or bad, just that is there). For example Sonny Gray has been a 5+ inning guy basically is whole career even when he wasn't that great, and the Twins have seemed to limit his innings by 1 each start, and yes I get the injury but he is a 32 pitcher who has in the past missed a couple of starts here and there but really not that many and that he given the chance probably could do more. (Again to keep this on topic, not saying he should or shouldn't be, just that he is not given the same opportunity that other pitchers are the league).

To sum it up, I don't see under this FO the Twins having what we used to call an "ACE".

 

 

 

[Battle ur tail off]

His ceiling, IMO is that of a #2 type starter. But I also think his floor is high. I see him as no worse than a very solid #4 guy. 

He's young and misses bats. That is the most important thing. Guys that miss bats like he does generally profile as middle to top of the rotation guys. 

[gunnarthor]

8 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

His ceiling, IMO is that of a #2 type starter. But I also think his floor is high. I see him as no worse than a very solid #4 guy. 

He's young and misses bats. That is the most important thing. Guys that miss bats like he does generally profile as middle to top of the rotation guys. 

But he's not that young - this is his age 26 season. And his k rate is actually a touch below MLB average - 8.4 v 8.5 k/9. Some numbers, such as fip and xfip, suggest Ryan has actually been lucky. I don't think he's top 50 in any MLB stat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 8/1/2022 at 8:46 PM, chpettit19 said:

Ceiling? #2 starter. Likely outcome? #3-5 starter.

Pretty much this, though I don't see #5 starter a likely outcome. I think the most likely outcome is one of those league average guys you kinda forget about after a few years but was capable for quite awhile.

If Ryan ends up at the back of a rotation, I would expect injury to be involved.

[LA VIkes Fan]

High ceiling, solid floor pitcher. Absent injury, he will be at least a solid #3.  He's already that good. Could continue to improve and be a solid or better #2. or even a weak #1. Probably will never be an an Ace in the Justin Verlander/Johan Santana sense. He just doesn't have that one signature impossible to hit pitch or 2 very hard to hit pitches that separates those guys from the pack but he does have a great feel for pithing. Let's remember, pitching is an art, it's not a science. Still, excellent pitcher to have. My prediction is that he will ramp up this year innings wise, and I see him as a consistent 160 plus innings, below 3.5 ERA/FIP guy from 2023 forward. Those guys are hard to find.    

[Battle ur tail off]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

High ceiling, solid floor pitcher. Absent injury, he will be at least a solid #3.  He's already that good. Could continue to improve and be a solid or better #2. or even a weak #1. Probably will never be an an Ace in the Justin Verlander/Johan Santana sense. He just doesn't have that one signature impossible to hit pitch or 2 very hard to hit pitches that separates those guys from the pack but he does have a great feel for pithing. Let's remember, pitching is an art, it's not a science. Still, excellent pitcher to have. My prediction is that he will ramp up this year innings wise, and I see him as a consistent 160 plus innings, below 3.5 ERA/FIP guy from 2023 forward. Those guys are hard to find.    

And for 2 months of a 40 year old DH. Stole this kid.

[AlwaysinModeration]

In trying to answer the question posed, I went back and reread this article:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-joe-ryan-talks-sliders-vertical-approach-angle-and-water-polo/
 

After reading it, I concluded that Joe Ryan’s ceiling is higher than where he is now.

[Linus]

I still think it’s too early to tell much. I believe the league is starting to adjust to him so his progress will be determined how he adjusts back. 

[bwillly]

3 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

In trying to answer the question posed, I went back and reread this article:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-joe-ryan-talks-sliders-vertical-approach-angle-and-water-polo/
 

After reading it, I concluded that Joe Ryan’s ceiling is higher than where he is now.

He is definitely an interesting dude and definitely seems big into the analytics of his pitching and figuring out new stuff to make him better. Like yeah he can’t throw 98mph but I don’t think he needs to. If he can lock in a nasty slider I think he has the potential for a #1b type guy. Up in the zone high arm angle 92mph, nasty slider plus his curve he has enough stuff to get there if he can do it consistently. 
 

I think it’s possible he could develop into sort of a Maddox type if he can keep developing his other pitches as he seems very motivated to do and keep missing bats. 
 

gotta stay healthy of course but I could def see him having a long, productive mlb career as a crafty guy who misses bats. #2 or #3 I think pretty likely with crafty #1 upside. Will probably never be considered a true ace who can just blow off the doors or just has a completely filthy pitch, but he can maybe be crafty enough to get roughly the same results.