My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Regarding the OP, I offer up a COUNTERPOINT as well as a POINT 

COUNTERPOINT: 

You never give up when you have a shot to win. It's a disservice to fans and your players. While the ALC might be pretty bad, we've still been the best team for most all the year and remain in 1st place starting tonight, DESPITE injuries and BP failures. If we take the ALC, we get 3 games at home. Who knows what can happen?

Isn't winning still the point? And while there are more than a few milb options hurt or having poor years, there is still talent to move, and almost a need to wirh the number of 40 man issues facing the team in 2023. (I know debate rages on this issue). A pair of RP HELPS, and helps a lot. If rentals, they can be re-signed potentially. Considering the probable cost of a SP, he'd have to have at least 1 more year of control. But that helps NOW, and in 2023.

I'd rather see a 2022 ALC banner than not. I'd rather try to win that home series to start the post season and then see what happens. I'd like to try and win and establish as strong of a winning culture as we can.

POINT:

In Maeda, Paddock, Ober, Winder and Dobnak, you have a mostly young, and debatable "decent/solid" rotation all unavailable due to the IL. Only Winder and Ober might be back before the season is done.

Could Stashak, Romero, or Coulombe have helped? Hard to say. We're never going to know. I'm pretty sure Alcala WOULD have helped.

Lewis is out until sometime 2023. (The sooner the better). Larnach is probably out until mid August if everything goes right. Jeffers probably just as long if not a little longer. Who knows about Kirilloff at this point? Kepler will be back, and hopefully ready to go. Sano is also a "who knows" as well as a "would he make a difference at this point"?

The odds are stacked against the Twins right now, but can trying to add and see what happens hurt? No, but trading a TON of quality might not be the right move AT THIS TIME.

I'm stuck in between these 2 thoughts. I don't think you go ALL IN at this point. But you can still improve chances to finish the year strong, and "buy" a few pieces that can also help in 2023. 

So I'm still in BUY mode, but don't sell out at this point.

 

I'm with you. I just can't give up any great prospects without getting more than two years of control.

[The_Phantom]

44 minutes ago, RpR said:

This team does not need wishful thinking and selling a top rank defense player for wishful thinking is a losing proposition.

These twins are doing nothing this season and he’s gonna walk for nothing in 2 months. It’s not “wishful thinking” it’s attempting to better yourself by cashing in nothing for something.

 
prospects are a gamble. But this team tries to play it both ways as an excuse to never do anything. “Can’t get rid of prospects they might turn out awesome” Also “can’t trade for prospects they might suck!”

 
that philosophy doesn’t work when you’re not a top spending team 

[DocBauer]

11 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

If they make one trade to "win now" they need to make five trades to win now. There are so many holes on this roster that is what it will take to make this team a true contender. Getting one pitcher isn't going to give me any more hope that they can win in the playoffs.

Your point is both liked and well taken. And I fully appreciate the need for 5 with all the injuries and such. 

But isn't there a compromise between trading and not trading? 

Theoretically, the Twins actually DO acquire a good, solid SP to team with Gray and Ryan and whoever else. If said arm has another year, it helps to finish 2022 as well as possible and have another rotation piece set for 2023. If they DO acquire a couple pen arms...whether they have control beyond, or are rentals that could be re-signed, or a combination of both...those arms still help finish 2022 as strong as possible and could, again, help in 2023.

Finding some cheap SP rental for next to nothing might be pretty tough, if not impossible. So the 4th and 5th spot will probably remain Bundy, Archer, Smeltzer and TBD. Nick had proposed a PTBNL for SOME veteran catcher to not rely on rookie Hamilton. I think that's possible, do-able, but maybe too late with less than 24hrs to go, and with other more important possible moves.

Just saying, not giving up on 2022 might be a mistake, especially if they could move a few guys to add to 2023 as well. 

[RJA]

For me, hearing Kirilloff's interview comments was the last straw--I don't think it makes sense to add any significant player at the cost of future top prospects.  It sounds like Kirilloff is going to be out of action for awhile.  Even if Larnach comes back, it is likely going to take him some time to get back in groove, and by then we are in September.  Plus, Buxton is not a picture of health this year either, with his knee continuing to cause some issues.  The pitching is a mess with only Gray showing any signs of life in the starting rotation, and Duran and Jax in the bullpen.  I am a bit concerned about Ryan.  Maybe the covid experience took something out of him, but he simply does not seem to have the same confidence and command as earlier in the year.  Another problem is, who can you trade?  Lewis?  No.  Rodriguez? No. Miranda.  Absolutely not.  Those three are untouchable for me.  Larnach?  Hurt.  Kirilloff?   Hurt.  Winder, Canterino, and many others?  Hurt.  Martin?  Hurt and playing badly.  Balazovic?  Some injuries and playing badly.  Some others like Raya, Povich, CES and Wallner might be bait, but do we really want to trade any good pitching prospects given the state of our rotation?  I don't think Wallner and CES will come close to getting us what we need.  I would add some bullpen help at the margins, and a starter if he came cheap, but otherwise I would mostly play the hand we are dealt.  If injuries hadn't decimated this team, I would have gone all in.  Now, that does not seem to be wise, IMHO.  Great topic.  Great posts.

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, RpR said:

Twins need defense at third and Miranda is not even close to as good as Gio.

Surprisingly, they are both just average, although I believe Urshela is slightly better. Still, Miranda has a better bat and his glove will not hurt the Twins at this time.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I just can't give up any great prospects without getting more than two years of control.

Who are these top ("great") prospects?

[DocBauer]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm with you. I just can't give up any great prospects without getting more than two years of control.

Hard to walk the line as a fan as well as an armchair GM, right?

I appreciate your "two years of control", and won't disagree with your perspective. But as I tried to state, and re-stated in another post, isn't there a compromise? Any SP or RP with control will cost more.

Unless the cost is just nuts, would a good, solid SP with another year to contribute in 2023 be worth it? I keep saying, even rental RP's have value and could be re-signed, and perhaps either or both COULD have control. But then again, you pay more. Sorry, but I keep thinking about 2019 and Romo and Dyson. Romo was re-signed and a healthy and not "problem" Dyson probably would have been as well.

I just keep thinking there is a middle road where the FO could make moves to keep 2022 on track to win as much as possible, not give up, see what happens, and still maybe add to 2023 as well.

[twins_89]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

When do we get to judge the FO? The year moves every year....every year. Other than Ryan, they have zero SPs we can count on next year from the vaunted pipeline. Zero. Nada. Nil. 

Coming into the year I strongly believed that the pitching pipeline would either boom or bust this season. Based on the lack of offseason moves, it seemed like the front office was betting heavily on the pipeline producing, unfortunately we ended up with the bust side of the equation. The only starting pitcher to have sustained success has been Joe Ryan, and he wasn't even developed by the organization. Every other starting pitcher prospect has eithert been hurt or terrible. 

[tony&rodney]

I don't want to trash Falvine because they surely have some skills. They are not nearly as talented at baseball as Terry Ryan in my opinion, but I am biased from my experiences.

[DocBauer]

28 minutes ago, The_Phantom said:

These twins are doing nothing this season and he’s gonna walk for nothing in 2 months. It’s not “wishful thinking” it’s attempting to better yourself by cashing in nothing for something.

 
prospects are a gamble. But this team tries to play it both ways as an excuse to never do anything. “Can’t get rid of prospects they might turn out awesome” Also “can’t trade for prospects they might suck!”

 
that philosophy doesn’t work when you’re not a top spending team 

I appreciate your perspective.  I do. But even if we dismiss Correa coming back, which I do, he is a centerpiece for a team still in 1st place as of August 1st with aspirations to win their division, make the playoffs, hopefully win, and see what happens. When is the last time you've seen a 1st place team trade a major piece while trying to win? Secondly, how many top, potential playoff teams have such a hole at SS that they are going to want to trade anything of value for a Correa rental and over $11M still due? 

Forgetting the Twins still trying to win and advance and losing a big part of their current team, and very limited trade options, what a horrible PR hit and bad message to be sent to your fans and team to be in 1st place August 1st and just fold the tents.

Not going to happen.

[DocBauer]

10 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

Coming into the year I strongly believed that the pitching pipeline would either boom or bust this season. Based on the lack of offseason moves, it seemed like the front office was betting heavily on the pipeline producing, unfortunately we ended up with the bust side of the equation. The only starting pitcher to have sustained success has been Joe Ryan, and he wasn't even developed by the organization. Every other starting pitcher prospect has eithert been hurt or terrible. 

Right or wrong, only time will tell, the FO has placed a ton of chips on the pipeline, I agree. I also agree it hasn't worked out, at least yet, the way they hoped. I disagree a bit on Ryan as he's now a Twin and his current and future development is on the Twins. Despite being hurt currently, I think Ober is part of the pipeline and has a pretty solid future if he can stay healthy. Duran and Jax are part of said pipeline, even if one was a draftee and the other was a young trade acquisition.

The "bet" isn't the issue. It was smart and planned. And I don't know if 2020 is a culprit, and how much at this point, or crazy bad luck, but arms like Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, SWR, and even Enlow aren't surprises. They are well regarded arms that have had injuries, setbacks, and WTH is going on seasons. Is this just so much bad luck it has to turn around at some point? IDK, but I have to HOPE some medical/training procedures and time will get some of these arms back on track in 2023.

Does Canterino need to move to the pen? I'd HATE to see it considering his arm talent, but maybe he's destined to be a STUD there. Does Balazovic just need time, and a confidence boost in 2023? Can the Twins find something with Winder that needs a small procedure or a different training approach? I think SWR just needs time. Same with Enlow coming back from TJ. Could we see a BIG movement in 2023 with just better health, more time, and a re-set for some? Absolutely! And there's a NUMBER of really good looking arms in both levels of A ball, and a couple nice arms at AA, lead by Varland. So the isn't barren. But not only do we need to see/hope for the higher level arms to get right. But we also need the FO to recognize they can't just WAIT for the pipeline to produce. 

They have the opportunity, still, in 2023 to see and wait for additional parts of the pipeline to be ready. But they also can't, any longer, JUST wait. Whether it's trade now or actually making a significant offseason signing, they NEED to add a quality SP arm while STILL embracing the pipeline of the system. Trust and belief and nurturing is one thing. Reality of the bird in hand is another. 

[Battle ur tail off]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

When do we get to judge the FO? The year moves every year....every year. Other than Ryan, they have zero SPs we can count on next year from the vaunted pipeline. Zero. Nada. Nil. 

I’ll judge them too. Chase Petty for a terrible starter in Paddack was one of the bullets we needed this deadline or off-season to go for real talent. After I watched Paddack all I could think about was Nick Blackburn and the rest for the 5 and fly crew. He’s not and won’t be good. Young that it. 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I’ll judge them too. Chase Petty for a terrible starter in Paddack was one of the bullets we needed this deadline of off-season to go for real talent. After I watched Paddack all I could think about was Nick Blackburn and the rest for the 5 and fly crew. He’s not and won’t be good. Young that it. 

Pretty sure Petty went for Gray.

 

Rogers went for Paddack (and Pagan).

[Battle ur tail off]

Yea sorry. I’d take Roger’s back or heck I’d have traded him to Milwaukee along with a couple prospects for Hader. He has one of the very best left handed arms in the entire game.

My main point is that Paddack looked very similar to any old AAA pitcher we can bring up at any time. Grapefruit thrower 

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Pretty sure Petty went for Gray.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The CC signing is easy to explain, and goes hand-in-hand with the rookie approach. They were giving the roster spots to the rookies, but knew a $90M payroll would get them skinned alive, so they went quality over quantity in the one position they couldn’t trust to fill internally.

As far as next year goes, no clue. No reason Maeda shouldn’t be back. Hopefully at least one of Ober or Winder are back. That’s not my point though, this team here in 2022 was never built to win a WS, right or wrong, the point clearly was to give the youth experience. With a roster full of young guys, there was no changing course once the train started rolling.

traded for a 2 time all star at catcher, former all star at 1st coming off a 30 homer season after hitting 13 in 53 games and 34 in 105 games, a second baseman with a WAR of 4.9 in 21 also former all star at SS, All world SS (some could argue the best SS in the game) that cost 35 million dollars, A solid vet at 3B with your 3rd best non pitching prospect biting at his heals. Your 100 million dollar center fielder, A solid two plus WAR right fielder, a former 1st round pick and all world prospect fighting for left.

Traded a first round pitcher and top 10 prospect for former all star and top (ish) of the rotation starter. All world Rookie Joe Ryan starting opening day, Bailey Ober as the third start after coming off a 1.2 WAR in his rookie season of 20 starts. Traded for another starter in Paddock, signed two vets and had a slew of pitching prospects just waiting to break though.

Yes, I can totally can see how this team wasn't built for winning this year. Going into next year, they will be replacing Sano with Arraez at first, and somebody for Correa and instead of Ober coming back from a strong season he will be coming back from another injured season. As will Maeda and Paddock, and those pitching prospects waiting to break though, it will be a different group trying to break though. So anybody that thinks 23 is a different plan than 22 is dreaming.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, The_Phantom said:

These twins are doing nothing this season and he’s gonna walk for nothing in 2 months. It’s not “wishful thinking” it’s attempting to better yourself by cashing in nothing for something.

 
prospects are a gamble. But this team tries to play it both ways as an excuse to never do anything. “Can’t get rid of prospects they might turn out awesome” Also “can’t trade for prospects they might suck!”

 
that philosophy doesn’t work when you’re not a top spending team 

Spending 35 million dollars to get into first place, then trading said guy for a couple of minor league fillers at the deadline, or keep said guy thus not pissing on the team and the fans and continue to push for the division title.

Yup can't see anything wrong with the first option.

If the Twins decide to trade CC then Gray, Kepler, Polanco, Urshela should be traded as well. Then beg the fans for a few more years to get this prospect pipeline figured out, because 6 just isn't enough. Sure there will be fans that quit on the team (Me being one) but don't worry they have all those young fans coming to replace us, oh wait....

[In My La Z boy]

Today is a new day. Looking for a blockbuster. I cannot believe we signed Correa only to throw in the towel, as we sit here in first place on August 2nd. When we will ever have a better chance to win our division, getting us in the playoffs and giving us a chance. Take a chance guys.

So you're saying there's a chance? 

[The_Phantom]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I appreciate your perspective.  I do. But even if we dismiss Correa coming back, which I do, he is a centerpiece for a team still in 1st place as of August 1st with aspirations to win their division, make the playoffs, hopefully win, and see what happens. When is the last time you've seen a 1st place team trade a major piece while trying to win? Secondly, how many top, potential playoff teams have such a hole at SS that they are going to want to trade anything of value for a Correa rental and over $11M still due? 

Forgetting the Twins still trying to win and advance and losing a big part of their current team, and very limited trade options, what a horrible PR hit and bad message to be sent to your fans and team to be in 1st place August 1st and just fold the tents.

Not going to happen.

I agree it’s not going to happen, but it *should* if you’re not willing to address the pitching more than dumpster diving. (Besides the gray trade They dumpster dove all off-season -including the paddack deal which was thrown in the dumpster by the Mets and picked up by the twins - and now we are at the trade deadline and they are making Brad Peacock signings) then you should help your team in other ways. 
  
And there are multiple trade partners available. IKF has been bad for the Yankees. Didi is bad for the Phillies. And that’s just the two obvious fits… I’m sure there are others, plus a team that might br willing to shift someone defensively.

i understand the notion of not wanting to told when you’re currently in first place. But doing nothing just extends the mediocrity, at best.  
 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

While the Twins have been exceedingly quiet during an increasingly busy trade deadline, my evolving of where the Twins stand is this:

They are a team at the beginning of a lengthy window of contention, one that made several “now” moves in the off-season, has performed well, but got bitten hard by injury.  While I don’t think one game makes a ton of difference, if they had lost last night and fallen into a tie for first place, the calculus for today might have been a bit different.

But given where they are now, I fully expect them to add a starter and a reliever today, plus maybe a hitter (outfielder / backup catcher).  I’m skeptical it will wind up being Mahle.  Would love it to be Thor or Rodon.  Am fearful it will be someone much less like Smyly.

As for RPs, would love to see one of the Baltimore guys like López or Bautista or a Royal guy like Barlow or Staumont.  But I think it more likely they land a oldish reliever who isn’t too great, but is at least something.

[The_Phantom]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Spending 35 million dollars to get into first place, then trading said guy for a couple of minor league fillers at the deadline, or keep said guy thus not pissing on the team and the fans and continue to push for the division title.

Yup can't see anything wrong with the first option.

If the Twins decide to trade CC then Gray, Kepler, Polanco, Urshela should be traded as well. Then beg the fans for a few more years to get this prospect pipeline figured out, because 6 just isn't enough. Sure there will be fans that quit on the team (Me being one) but don't worry they have all those young fans coming to replace us, oh wait....

Why does trading Correa need to be a firesale? That’s such a massive gap in logic?

 
Correas contract is unique. Very very unlikely he doesn’t opt out, which means in 3 months we might maybe get a supplemental pick for him. You’d rather have that than a couple higher end prospects well on their way?
 
Trade him to a team that has lots of money and they might sign a new contract and extend him, or maybe he’ll opt in with them if it looks like a team that is actually willing to make some acquisitions. Either way, we’ve gotten a benefit out of him. 
 
but to the other point - 
 
You know what makes less sense than signing a $35 million player just to trade him for assets? Signing a $35 million player and then picking up scraps for a pitching staff and throwing out Pagan to continue to blow saves in August. Signing that kind of a contract means you should be going all in. That’s option A.
 
They’re not doing that, that ship has sailed. the best arms are already off the table.
 
Since they’re not doing that, you should then get pieces back for him. There’s no good reason to hold on to him with this current roster, there’s virtually no chance they win a WS.
 
this is not an opinion Of “oh good we signed Correa we should immediately trade him”. It’s “oh good we signed correa, now let’s see put together a solid set of arms. No? You’re not willing to risk next year for good arms? Then let’s BOLSTER next year by trading away the guy that won’t be here anyway”.

 
that doesn’t mean you have to have a firesale  

[nicksaviking]

What do you actually think this team could get for Correa? His contract this year is still very hefty, and worries about an injury will be hanging over his head due to the 70M left on his contract. Heck, it wouldn't even have to be an injury, he might decide to stick around if he starts off slow with his new team and thinks he might not get what he wants on the open market.

As good as he's been, moving him would be a salary dump, not a haul of top 100 prospects.

[jorgenswest]

I think Correa might opt in next year. His performance is not elite and might not get him the contract he wants. He may bet on himself to be closer to the 19 or 21 seasons next year.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think Correa might opt in next year. His performance is not elite and might not get him the contract he wants. He may bet on himself to be closer to the 19 or 21 seasons next year.

Of the four big free agent shortstops, he's the only one with an OPS under .800. 

[Vanimal46]

42 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

They are a team at the beginning of a lengthy window of contention, one that made several “now” moves in the off-season, has performed well, but got bitten hard by injury.

I want to believe this is the case, but not fully bought in yet. In order for this to happen, we need to develop pitching. Specifically someone who could be considered a #2 or ace on a WS contending team. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have a fair #3 pitcher in Joe Ryan (forget his last start), and a pile of guys to fill out a rotation. Some are still pitching (Gray), some are coming back (Maeda), and some are prospects (Winder, Ober, Sands, etc.).

The team needs somebody to slot above what they have. Apparently, the minor league players within the Twins system are not seen as future MLB players by other teams, and the Twins should not be trading Jose Miranda. Does Falvey sits at his desk quietly waiting for a call that won't be coming and is his number blocked by his fellow GMs? When one looks at the collection of players that Oakland received for Montas and Trevino from the Yankees .... I just shake my head.

Still time to add a relief pitcher though. Maybe swing big for Pablo Lopez too. I would like two Lopez guys.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, The_Phantom said:

Trade him to a team that has lots of money and they might sign a new contract and extend him, or maybe he’ll opt in with them if it looks like a team that is actually willing to make some acquisitions. Either way, we’ve gotten a benefit out of him. 

 

 

Because Correa isn't going to return what you think he would.

[The_Phantom]

21 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Because Correa isn't going to return what you think he would.

What he would return has a better chance of helping the twins next year than the supplemental draft pick will. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Just now, The_Phantom said:

What he would return has a better chance of helping the twins next year than the supplemental draft pick will. 

I would guess they aren't getting a guy that would be major league ready next year. More the the bottom two guys the Twins sent to Baltimore. or maybe one like like Povich who IMO won't be in the majors next year. They probably get a higher upside guy with the draft pick. But that is just my opinion. And if you are trading one guys for two years down the road why not trade more?

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, The_Phantom said:

What he would return has a better chance of helping the twins next year than the supplemental draft pick will. 

I don't think the Twins get a pick if/when Correa opts out.

 

Who cares? They aren't trading Correa (and keep on mind he has a limited no trade clause this year) nor should they.