My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand

[kydoty]

[Battle ur tail off]

I am pretty much with you after seeing the price to get Castillo. I want Miranda, AK and Lewis here throughout their arb years anyway. 

Upgrade the bullpen anyway you can and see what happens. Those 3 prospects though no way.

 

If a controllable starter is available, I would give up position player prospects(not the 3) for them. Our rotation is not suddenly going to be worlds better next year. Lots of hope, band-aids and if they get healthy's on that list. 

 

 

[wavedog]

We seem to have a glut of corner outfielder/corner infielder prospects and a shortage of starters/quality bullpen staff and we may have a 40-man roster crunch this fall so not averse to making a trade as much built for the long-term as a short-term push.  The problem being we have so many injured players now that is going to limit and complicate trade opportunities.   We do need another decent catcher - not sure which is worse  the Sanchez/Hamilton catching duo offense or the bad half of our pitching staff pitching.    

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not really on topic.... Maybe start a new thread?

Sorry I thought the topic was - My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand

I thought it relevant to point out I didn't and don't think the Twins should got get a top pitcher. I also thought it relevant to say my opinion on the FO has evolved from letting them build a consistent team with a pipeline of prospects and trades to I evolving into thinking they haven't and if they can't turn it around this year replacing them might be more on important than letting them continue down the path they have taken us.(Which I thought was looking like a good path and last year was a speed bump, but maybe isn't looking so rosy anymore. And I used examples of way I think that.)

I mean it isn't like I was talking about starting pitchers or trades that happened.?‍♂️

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Sorry I thought the topic was - My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand

I thought it relevant to point out I didn't and don't think the Twins should got get a top pitcher. I also thought it relevant to say my opinion on the FO has evolved from letting them build a consistent team with a pipeline of prospects and trades to I evolving into thinking they haven't and if they can't turn it around this year replacing them might be more on important than letting them continue down the path they have taken us.(Which I thought was looking like a good path and last year was a speed bump, but maybe isn't looking so rosy anymore. And I used examples of way I think that.)

I mean it isn't like I was talking about starting pitchers or trades that happened.?‍♂️

 

Good point, I htought your post was about firing the FO.....which I consider a different topic completely.

They won the division two years in a row, stunk last year, and are somehow still winning it this year. They aren't getting fired. No chance at all. That said, their inability to develop healthy effective pitching will, imo, be their downfall in a another two years or so. 

[Ryan_K]

A note on the Montas deal, I recall seeing reports that Oak wanted a deal headlined with pitching, so I think that explains this. From a value standpoint, twins could match with Steer, Walner, Raya, Povich.

 

Also MLB Trade Values tweeted that basically all Oak trades don't come close to their model, so Oak is using different assumptions on prospects than the majority of the league

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

If they aren't getting help they SHOULD trade Correa. 

And I would HATE the idea of trading Correa.

You've said it multiple times, Mike...why would anyone think they'll have a better shot next year?

Well I'd think it's unlikely they'd have 14 players on the IL again next year. And that's only counting the 40-man eligible players, not the numerous prospects they could have traded had they not been hurt.

Why do you think they won't be better next year? Isn't that how rebuilding is supposed to work? Obviously it's not guaranteed, but that's the blueprint.

But the Twins aren't trading Correa. Not only because it's a terrible idea, but because no buying team is going to trade anything of value for a guy who will walk next year except under the very real possibility that he should get a long term injury this year, in which case they're stuck with a roster imploding contract.

[lukeduke1980]

I think my expectations have changed a little based on Falveys quotes from the weekend.  'The goal each year is to win the Central Division Championship'.  

[Vanimal46]

27 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well I'd think it's unlikely they'd have 14 players on the IL again next year. And that's only counting the 40-man eligible players, not the numerous prospects they could have traded had they not been hurt.

Why do you think they won't be better next year? Isn't that how rebuilding is supposed to work? Obviously it's not guaranteed, but that's the blueprint.

But the Twins aren't trading Correa. Not only because it's a terrible idea, but because no buying team is going to trade anything of value for a guy who will walk next year except under the very real possibility that he should get a long term injury this year, in which case they're stuck with a roster imploding contract.

The last couple of years have been riddled with injuries. Idk why that would change going forward with the same players. There’s no guarantee that Buxton will be healthy for 100+ games in 2023 and beyond. We’ve seen almost zero progression from the pitching prospects. Having a sustained contender is the stated goal of the FO but it’s hardly a given with a mid market team. The contention window closes quickly. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, wavedog said:

We seem to have a glut of corner outfielder/corner infielder prospects

Not to mention the middle infielders who "profile best at second base."

CF, SS, C, pitching.  That's all we need.

IOW, up the middle is not our strength.

 

[Winston Smith]

29 minutes ago, lukeduke1980 said:

I think my expectations have changed a little based on Falveys quotes from the weekend.  'The goal each year is to win the Central Division Championship'.  

The goal each year should be to win the World Series. Winning the Central is a very low bar, imo.

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The last couple of years have been riddled with injuries. Idk why that would change going forward with the same players. There’s no guarantee that Buxton will be healthy for 100+ games in 2023 and beyond. We’ve seen almost zero progression from the pitching prospects. Having a sustained contender is the stated goal of the FO but it’s hardly a given with a mid market team. The contention window closes quickly. 

This year was never a contention window though. The had five rookie pitchers open the season in key spots.

[TwinsRealist]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

This year was never a contention window though. The had five rookie pitchers open the season in key spots.

The current year is never the contending year for the Twins, they are always talking about the future that never comes...

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

This year was never a contention window though. The had five rookie pitchers open the season in key spots.

The opening day rotation was Ryan, Gray, Ober, Bundy, Paddack, Archer. With Duran in the pen. Where are the other 3 rookies in key spots?

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

This year was never a contention window though. The had five rookie pitchers open the season in key spots.

When do we get to judge the FO? The year moves every year....every year. Other than Ryan, they have zero SPs we can count on next year from the vaunted pipeline. Zero. Nada. Nil. 

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The opening day rotation was Ryan, Gray, Ober, Bundy, Paddack, Archer. With Duran in the pen. Where are the other 3 rookies in key spots?

OK fine, I was talking Ryan, Duran, Ober, Jax and Winder. I guess Ober wasn’t technically a rookie and Jax had one AAA appearance first, my point is still that contending teams don’t roll into the season with this much inexperience on the pitching staff. I mean Ryan was the opening day starter.

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

When do we get to judge the FO? The year moves every year....every year. Other than Ryan, they have zero SPs we can count on next year from the vaunted pipeline. Zero. Nada. Nil. 

We can judge the front office now. Plenty to criticize. I wanted and felt the team could get Robbie Ray AND Carlos Rodon (different discussion I know, and that was only half right anyway).

I’m only trying to say this year was clearly designed to get the young guys up. If they would have said we want to get the young guys experience AND we plan on winning the WS, I’d have called BS. We all would have.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

We can judge the front office now. Plenty to criticize.

I’m only trying to say this year was clearly designed to get the young guys up. If they would have said we want to get the young guys experience AND we plan on winning the WS, I’d have called BS. We all would have.

I'm not sure I understand the Gray trade if they weren't trying this year. Or signing CC for that matter, since it is just money down the drain if they don't win (they aren't trading him). 

Who do you feel confident is healthy and good next year as a SP? Ryan and Gray and pray?

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure I understand the Gray trade if they weren't trying this year. Or signing CC for that matter, since it is just money down the drain if they don't win (they aren't trading him). 

Who do you feel confident is healthy and good next year as a SP? Ryan and Gray and pray?

The CC signing is easy to explain, and goes hand-in-hand with the rookie approach. They were giving the roster spots to the rookies, but knew a $90M payroll would get them skinned alive, so they went quality over quantity in the one position they couldn’t trust to fill internally.

As far as next year goes, no clue. No reason Maeda shouldn’t be back. Hopefully at least one of Ober or Winder are back. That’s not my point though, this team here in 2022 was never built to win a WS, right or wrong, the point clearly was to give the youth experience. With a roster full of young guys, there was no changing course once the train started rolling.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The CC signing is easy to explain, and goes hand-in-hand with the rookie approach. They were giving the roster spots to the rookies, but knew a $90M payroll would get them skinned alive, so they went quality over quantity in the one position they couldn’t trust to fill internally.

As far as next year goes, no clue. No reason Maeda shouldn’t be back. Hopefully at least one of Ober or Winder are back. That’s not my point though, this team here in 2022 was never built to win a WS, right or wrong, the point clearly was to give the youth experience. With a roster full of young guys, there was no changing course once the train started rolling.

nm...we are off topic now. I'll be posting about this likely soon also.

[The_Phantom]

Let’s be real. The first 6 weeks of the season the pitching staff played above their heads and the twins started 27-16. Then they started playing like the team they actually are and they are 26-32 in the last 2.5 months.

 
that’s a .448 win%, which is WORSE than the 2021 twins 

[Vanimal46]

35 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

OK fine, I was talking Ryan, Duran, Ober, Jax and Winder. I guess Ober wasn’t technically a rookie and Jax had one AAA appearance first, my point is still that contending teams don’t roll into the season with this much inexperience on the pitching staff. I mean Ryan was the opening day starter.

Key spots is a pretty loose term then. Jax was a mop up guy to the start the year who is still not trusted for higher leverage appearances. Winder was the long man, who may have been a mid year consideration for a rotation spot if half the rotation didn’t go down with injury. 

Ryan being the opening day starter was probably more around optics so the Twins could have a consistent opening day starter for multiple years. 

[jkcarew]

Pretty sound reasoning, in my opinion.

[DocBauer]

Regarding the OP, I offer up a COUNTERPOINT as well as a POINT 

COUNTERPOINT: 

You never give up when you have a shot to win. It's a disservice to fans and your players. While the ALC might be pretty bad, we've still been the best team for most all the year and remain in 1st place starting tonight, DESPITE injuries and BP failures. If we take the ALC, we get 3 games at home. Who knows what can happen?

Isn't winning still the point? And while there are more than a few milb options hurt or having poor years, there is still talent to move, and almost a need to wirh the number of 40 man issues facing the team in 2023. (I know debate rages on this issue). A pair of RP HELPS, and helps a lot. If rentals, they can be re-signed potentially. Considering the probable cost of a SP, he'd have to have at least 1 more year of control. But that helps NOW, and in 2023.

I'd rather see a 2022 ALC banner than not. I'd rather try to win that home series to start the post season and then see what happens. I'd like to try and win and establish as strong of a winning culture as we can.

POINT:

In Maeda, Paddock, Ober, Winder and Dobnak, you have a mostly young, and debatable "decent/solid" rotation all unavailable due to the IL. Only Winder and Ober might be back before the season is done.

Could Stashak, Romero, or Coulombe have helped? Hard to say. We're never going to know. I'm pretty sure Alcala WOULD have helped.

Lewis is out until sometime 2023. (The sooner the better). Larnach is probably out until mid August if everything goes right. Jeffers probably just as long if not a little longer. Who knows about Kirilloff at this point? Kepler will be back, and hopefully ready to go. Sano is also a "who knows" as well as a "would he make a difference at this point"?

The odds are stacked against the Twins right now, but can trying to add and see what happens hurt? No, but trading a TON of quality might not be the right move AT THIS TIME.

I'm stuck in between these 2 thoughts. I don't think you go ALL IN at this point. But you can still improve chances to finish the year strong, and "buy" a few pieces that can also help in 2023. 

So I'm still in BUY mode, but don't sell out at this point.

 

[adorduan]

They need to sell.  Even if they picked up a few pieces, they wouldn't be competitive in October, too many holes in this team. Sucks but we should be used to it by now.....

[RpR]

1 minute ago, adorduan said:

They need to sell.  Even if they picked up a few pieces, they wouldn't be competitive in October, too many holes in this team. Sucks but we should be used to it by now.....

Why?

So they can fight Kansas City for last place for years?

[The_Phantom]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Why?

So they can fight Kansas City for last place for years?

No, you sell the pieces like Correa that aren’t coming back and hope to get guys that help you next year, and then spend that 35 million on pitching

[RpR]

1 minute ago, The_Phantom said:

No, you sell the pieces like Correa that aren’t coming back and hope to get guys that help you next year, and then spend that 35 million on pitching

This team does not need wishful thinking and selling a top rank defense player for wishful thinking is a losing proposition.

[Nine of twelve]

6 hours ago, Dman said:

If the Twins are functioning like the Indians...

Which team is this? I'm aware of no team with this nickname.

[notoriousgod71]

If they make one trade to "win now" they need to make five trades to win now. There are so many holes on this roster that is what it will take to make this team a true contender. Getting one pitcher isn't going to give me any more hope that they can win in the playoffs.