Padres 3, Twins 2 Twins Still Can't Solve a NL Team

[Theo Tollefson]

What looked to be a promising, low-scoring affair to get a win over the Padres turned into another bullpen loss as the Twins dropped the series finale Sunday in San Diego before returning home for a seven-game homestand. 

Box Score
SP: Dylan Bundy 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (78 pitches, 56 strikes (71.7 strike %))
Home Runs: Luis Arraez (6), Jose Miranda (10)
Top 3 or Bottom 3 WPA: Jorge Polanco -.125, Kyle Garlick -.121, Byron Buxton -.107

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

 

Sean Manaea made the start for the Padres and had a rocky first inning as he walked Byron Buxton to lead off the game and later Jorge Polanco with one out. Neither Polanco or Buxton would score, though, as Manaea retired Kyle Garlick and Jose Miranda to get out of the inning. 

On the Twins side of the mound, Dylan Bundy had the start. Bundy held the Padres to one hit in his first two innings of work, but gave up a home run to Jurickson Profar in the bottom of the third for the first run of the game giving the Padres a 1-0 lead. 

The Twins had been without a hit the first time through the batting order and carried that into the top of the fifth inning. That was until Luis Arraez crushed a solo home run to tie the game, leading off the inning. He raised his league leading batting average back to the .335 mark. 

Following Arraez, Tim Beckham, who made his 2022 season debut on Sunday, hit a single up the middle to give the Twins their fourth base runner of the day. Gilberto Celestino followed up with a hit of his own and Caleb Hamilton was able to advance both runners on a sacrifice bunt. 

With runners in scoring position, Buxton came to the plate with a big RBI opportunity. Buxton hit the first pitch of his at-bat to the foul net near first base and what looked like a catch by Eric Hosmer, turned out to be a trap after the ball hit the net before it landed in Hosmer’s glove. The original call of the play was an out but the Twins challenged and it was overturned to be a foul ball as the umpire crew gave the Twins a second straight game with a big break. 

However, Buxton failed to drive in a run as he struck out. The Padres decided to intentionally walk Carlos Correa, giving Polanco an opportunity to do some damage with the bases loaded. However, he also failed to drive in any runs as he grounded out to the shortstop on the second pitch of his at-bat. 

Although the Twins lineup couldn’t capitalize on that bases loaded opportunity, Dylan Bundy shut down the Padres lineup to keep the game tied 1-1 through the bottom of the fifth. Thankfully for the Twins, they wouldn’t miss the opportunity to add runs in the top of the sixth as Jose Miranda had another solo home run of his own. 

The game went downhill for the Twins following Miranda’s home run. with runners on the corners and no outs, and facing the Padres order a third time, Rocco Baldelli pulled Bundy with his pitch count at 78 through five. In came Emilio Pagan and the former Padre’s old teammates took advantage of him working back-to-back days. 

The Padres were able to retake the lead on two singles surrendered by Pagan with Jake Cronenworth and Luke Voit getting the runs batted in. This gave the Padres a 3-2 lead and it held as the final score of the game. 

The Twins went nine up and nine down in the final three frames of the game while the Padres came close to adding more runs to their win in the bottom of the seventh when Garlick made an error on a routine fly ball to left.

The win for the Padres brings their overall record to 57-46 on the season while the Twins fall to 53-48. The Twins now only lead Cleveland by one game for the AL Central lead and the White Sox by two games. 

What’s Next? 
The Twins return home Monday to start a three-game series against the Tigers. The month of August will also see the most home games in one month in Target Field history as the Twins are set to play 20 of their 28 games for the month at home. The starters for both the Twins and Tigers are yet to be announced for Monday night with first pitch at 6:40 p.m.

Postgame Interview 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

View full article

[jimbo92107]

Bring up Spencer Steer and Matt Wallner. Plug Wallner into RF, see what he's got. Steer becomes another infield super sub. Hot bat gets to play in the field. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Bleh.

[mikelink45]

One of the things that I really hate among statistics is to see pagan come in and give up the hits that surrender the runs but come out with a 000 era. 

[Aggies7]

I’m afraid we’re so much further away from legitimate contention than it appeared a few months ago

[garn from vancouver]

oh the pain.

[Game7-91]

And this amidst a nothingburger snoozefest trade deadline week. Bleh is right. 

32 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Bleh.

 

[RpR]

54 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

Bring up Spencer Steer and Matt Wallner. Plug Wallner into RF, see what he's got. Steer becomes another infield super sub. Hot bat gets to play in the field. 

Yeah repeat last year, just what worked so well.

[RpR]

The Twins lost the game on four singles; two by Bundy - two by Pagan; there is some exclusionary thinking going on here.

If Arreaz was a top notch 1st baseman the one single would have never happened, at the same time had Celestino not been playing right darn near on the warning track the second single would not have let the runner get to third.

[David HK]

Ffs, can we just leave Pagan in SD?

Just maybe not tell him what time the airport bus is arriving?

[tony&rodney]

Take heart because at midnight tonight it will turn to August and your Minnesota Twins are in first place. For those who are discouraged call your friends in Kansas City .... or remember what transpired just last year. The Twins have a good schedule in August. We can all check back in a month to reassess the situation. 

[Aggies7]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Take heart because at midnight tonight it will turn to August and your Minnesota Twins are in first place. For those who are discouraged call your friends in Kansas City .... or remember what transpired just last year. The Twins have a good schedule in August. We can all check back in a month to reassess the situation. 

This line currently has the shelf life of white bread. 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Aggies7 said:

This rah-rah line currently has the shelf life of white bread. 

Not rah-rah in the least. I'm not disappointed that the Twins are in first place. I'm not much of a fan of the FO but mostly leave that alone, but the team is more fun to watch this year and have the ability to compete which was not the case last year and we don't know how next year will go. So, enjoy the team now. I haven't tasted white bread in more than 60 years. Doesn't it have preservatives that allow it to last forever? I only remember it tasted horrible. Maybe the Twins bullpen has left a toxic taste in your life.

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

This line currently has the shelf life of white bread. 

We play the Yankees in New York; how this turns out will have an  big effect on the Twins org. and fans.

A series split will be the nearest the Twins have come to a play-off victory in a long, long, long time.

[Aggies7]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Not rah-rah in the least. I'm not disappointed that the Twins are in first place. I'm not much of a fan of the FO but mostly leave that alone, but the team is more fun to watch this year and have the ability to compete which was not the case last year and we don't know how next year will go. So, enjoy the team now. I haven't tasted white bread in more than 60 years. Doesn't it have preservatives that allow it to last forever? I only remember it tasted horrible. Maybe the Twins bullpen has left a toxic taste in your life.

Lol I love white bread. About ten days is the usual life expectancy I get out of it. I would be surprised if we still reside in first place in ten days. 

[Aggies7]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

We play the Yankees in New York; how this turns out will have an  big effect on the Twins org. and fans.

A series split will be the nearest the Twins have come to a play-off victory in a long, long, long time.

We don’t play them until the week of Labor Day. We have 15 games against teams at or above 500 before then. And 3 with Boston who is a game under. 

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Lol I love white bread. About ten days is the usual life expectancy I get out of it. I would be surprised if we still reside in first place in ten days. 

You eat white bread? That's amazing. You are going to live for a couple of centuries. It might be a good idea to adopt the Yankees or Dodgers in that case. I'll still be watching or listening to the Twins in eleven days and next month if I'm still alive.

[darwin22]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Take heart because at midnight tonight it will turn to August and your Minnesota Twins are in first place. For those who are discouraged call your friends in Kansas City .... or remember what transpired just last year. The Twins have a good schedule in August. We can all check back in a month to reassess the situation. 

Very good point.  I may be in the minority here, but if the vast majority of HONEST Twins fans were told before the season started:  "The Twins will be in 1st place on August 1st"-----they would not only take it, but would be very happy after what transpired last season.  As hard as it is to admit, this team------as presently constructed------is not a playoff team and is likely destined for a 3rd place finish.  Not intending to be overly negative, but the warts/blemishes on this team cannot be ignored.  I will NOT be pleased if we make it to August 3rd and nothing is done to upgrade the bullpen-----our most glaring need.  

[Aggies7]

11 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You eat white bread? That's amazing. You are going to live for a couple of centuries. It might be a good idea to adopt the Yankees or Dodgers in that case. I'll still be watching or listening to the Twins in eleven days and next month if I'm still alive.

So will I, unfortunately. If I live a couple more centuries, will I see a minnesota sports title?

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, darwin22 said:

I will NOT be pleased if we make it to August 3rd and nothing is done to upgrade the bullpen-----our most glaring need.  

Me either, but Falvey does whatever he wants and I'm not going to jump because the Twins FO lost track of the days or couldn't get something done again. I mean, adding Archer and Bundy has actually turned out way better than Happ and Shoemaker but I wasn't pleased at all by the repeat of gambling on those type of guys as opposed to a few trades last winter. This is a pattern, more or less and the FO also may actually have a policy against long term contracts of value for pitchers. It is what is and I wait to be surprised.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

So will I, unfortunately. If I live a couple more centuries, will I see a minnesota sports title?

The Lynx? Don't gamble on it.

[terrydactyls]

7 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Very good point.  I may be in the minority here, but if the vast majority of HONEST Twins fans were told before the season started:  "The Twins will be in 1st place on August 1st"-----they would not only take it, but would be very happy after what transpired last season.  As hard as it is to admit, this team------as presently constructed------is not a playoff team and is likely destined for a 3rd place finish.  Not intending to be overly negative, but the warts/blemishes on this team cannot be ignored.  I will NOT be pleased if we make it to August 3rd and nothing is done to upgrade the bullpen-----our most glaring need.  

If this team is destined for a third place finish, why upgrade the bullpen?  Let the season play out, fire the front office and the manager, and get working on 2023.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

One of the things that I really hate among statistics is to see pagan come in and give up the hits that surrender the runs but come out with a 000 era. 

Yeah, those darn Analytics types and their fancy ERAs and propeller beanies and what not.

OPS-against, and the dreaded WPA, might be what your are yearning for, though.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Take heart because at midnight tonight it will turn to August and your Minnesota Twins are in first place. For those who are discouraged call your friends in Kansas City .... or remember what transpired just last year. The Twins have a good schedule in August. We can all check back in a month to reassess the situation. 

There was a discussion on what's worse. A team which has rebuilds, but is very good in between or a team which is forever mediocre. 

Kansas City fans can point back to 2 World Series appearances and 1 victory in the past 10 years. Kansas City can point to payrolls which exceed the Twins' maximum (achieved this year). Those recent World Series' hold fans' interest for a while.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

The Twins lost the game on four singles; two by Bundy - two by Pagan; there is some exclusionary thinking going on here.

If Arraez was a top notch 1st baseman the one single would have never happened, at the same time had Celestino not been playing right darn near on the warning track the second single would not have let the runner get to third.

Not to say that there aren't pitching holes to fill if this club wants to win playoff games, but most teams can win a game in which their pitchers allow only three runs. That said, the current staff, and the manner in which their work is managed, simply will not do.

Teams that regularly fail to score runs also will not win playoff games.  Twins stats in the last five games against two contending National League clubs:

4/30 (.133)            7/33 (.212)            0-4 RISP, 5 LOB

9/34 (.264)            12/37 (.444)           3-8 RISP, 4 LOB

5/31 (.161)            6/32 (.187)            0-7 RISP, 4 LOB

7/35 (.200)            9/37 (.243)            2-7 RISP, 6 LOB

7/33 (.212)            13/39 (.333)           2-9 RISP, 6 LOB

BA: .196             OBP: .264            20 total runs over this stretch (season average is 4.53/game).  They could have gone home 3 - 5 with just two more hits.

Even the dogs in the street know that this will not get it done, which is why the fan base is angry.  In this sense, this year's improved squad is far more frustrating than last year's collection of losers.

Oh, and yes, it really hurts to lose a series to a squad that regularly suits up in  uniforms that look like they came from an ice cream shop. Pistachio caps! 

[LewFordLives]

Does anyone know what the rule is on foul balls caught against the net? I couldn't find anything in the rulebook. The original call was "out" and I didn't see anything on the replay that indicated the ball hit the netting. Yet, the call was overturned almost immediately. 

[Whitey333]

I noticed the guy on the radio broadcast was saying the road trip was decent as the Twins went 3-4.  Wow.  How could anyone say the road trip was successful.  Did they not notice that they finished the road trip 1-4 against good teams?  It's been such a frustrating season.  I'm not one of those that says we should be happy because of August we are in first place.  I'm frustrated because even with all the injuries we should be way ahead of the others in the division.  The pitching has blown so many games.  It's frustrating watching such a flawed team flounder like a fish out of water.  With Toronto coming in for four games this weekend the Twins need to either sweep or at least take 2 of 3 from Tigers. While we will be playing blue jays and then dodgers while the white Sox play royals in two series and rangers.  I don't think the twins have the pitching to make it.  For white Sox the next 2-3 weeks provide an excellent opportunity to bolt ahead in the standings if they take advantage of an easy schedule.  If Sox don't then they could be done.  Trade deadline?  Like the team as a whole, I don't know what to expect. So many of their tradable assets are injured.  Go Twins

[rv78]

Competing, which the FO said this team would do, comes in many ways, shapes and forms. They are/were correct. They are competing very well against other teams of the same talent level or less. They aren't competing very well against the better teams. They have 2 days to improve one of the worst things on the team that their Manager loves to use, the bullpen, Problem is, even if they do improve it, Rocco will mis-manage it. He had 7 other guys that he could have used instead of Pagan on back to back days in a crucial situation, Moran, Cano, Cotton, Megill, Duran, Jax, Smith, all had no innings or less innings pitched the day before, but instead he chose the 1 guy outside of Duffey who has been his least reliable pitcher to get out of a tough situation. I don't understand why he picks the worst guy to use at the most critical time. It's almost as if he wants to lose.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Bring up Spencer Steer and Matt Wallner. Plug Wallner into RF, see what he's got. Steer becomes another infield super sub. Hot bat gets to play in the field. 

The same Matt Wallner who is hitting .105 for the Saints?

[insagt1]

No matter where they plug Pagan in, he fails. I think he needs to be gone. Sometimes there are pitchers who just can't rise to any occasion. Pagan has really failed the Twins.

Sano--he might be done for the season, but he shouldn't play another inning for the Twins. He is a spare part at best.

Correa--underwhelming. Very disappointing. Polanco--having a poor season based on what he has accomplished up to now.

Sanchez--a total bust.  The picture is not very bright for the Twins. Wonder if they can do anything about it in the next 24 hours?