The Prospect Price for Top Tier Pitching

[John Bonnes]

Looking at what SEA gave up for Castillo, my first thought was that it was a more than what the Twins got for Berrios last year. The primary guys about matched, but the other two were a bonus. At a high level, it was basically:

• two A- prospects (top 50/100), similar to Martin and Woods-Richardson
• two other prospects, but kind of throw-ins.

My question is this: if the Twins would've tried to match this, what could they have done? I'm not even talking about the "throw-ins" - we can find them. I'm talking about the two headliners. Would Emmanual Rodriguez and Spencer Steer have been close to what the Reds got? I don't think so? So then are we talking about Lewis? Larnach? Kirilloff? Miranda? 

What would have been a comparable package for the top two players Seattle shipped off?

[old nurse]

The prospects are in A and A= ball with a pedigree of draft ranking to influence rating.  If you consider the throw in that is doing poorly in AA did fine in A and A+, there is the cautionary tale of low level minor league players.  

2 low level prospects with high ceiling performing well, one a potential error prone shortstop.. That is the criteria that is not the major league players listed above, That is not Spencer Steer..  

[jorgenswest]

Larnach, Lewis, Woods-Richardson and Balazovic is comparable but not enough. Marte is the better headliner. They would need to replace Balazovic with someone better to top the Mariner deal.

[Twodogs]

The Mariners gave up their #1, #3, and #5 prospects out of their system.  I'm glad the Twins didn't get Castillo.  I mean if the Twins were comparable to the Yankees and the Astros then at that point I'd say go for it and try to win the WS.  But they really aren't at that level.  So best to lay back and find something else on the bargain bin.

[tony&rodney]

I don't think the Twins were ever in on Castillo really. The more exciting asks (just me) were Pablo Lopez and Frankie Montas. The unfortunate flair-up with the wrist of Alex Kirilloff may have killed those conversations.

A larger point, discussed endlessly by many including here on Twins Daily, is how do the Twins acquire a couple of relief pitchers as well as a starting pitcher worthy of October. I see prospects as exciting future stars, but all are flawed to some point and currently the Twins have nothing among the top 25 minor league stars. I want to keep Lewis and Emmanuel Rodriguez and also like a number of others. However, at some point the Twins need to add pitching despite the inherent risks with all pitchers. The Twins haven't shown any real interest in signing the high-priced pitchers in free agency, so trades are the only avenue. Hopefully the Twins can keep some discussions going in the next few days and acquire a few pitchers. As much as I like to watch (Julien, CES, Steer, Wallner, and many  others (milb.com), I'm ok with trading pretty much any combination for Lopez and believe Montas is available for a fair exchange. Go get both guys and suffer the loss of 5-7+ prospects. Falvey Time.

[Tiantwindup]

The higher price paid for Castillo vs. Berrios makes sense based on supply and demand:  with more playoff teams this year there there are more buyers and fewer sellers compared to last year. We should expect higher prices to be paid by the buyers the next few days…

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, John Bonnes said:

Looking at what SEA gave up for Castillo, my first thought was that it was a more than what the Twins got for Berrios last year. The primary guys about matched, but the other two were a bonus. At a high level, it was basically:

• two A- prospects (top 50/100), similar to Martin and Woods-Richardson
• two other prospects, but kind of throw-ins.

My question is this: if the Twins would've tried to match this, what could they have done? I'm not even talking about the "throw-ins" - we can find them. I'm talking about the two headliners. Would Emmanual Rodriguez and Spencer Steer have been close to what the Reds got? I don't think so? So then are we talking about Lewis? Larnach? Kirilloff? Miranda? 

What would have been a comparable package for the top two players Seattle shipped off?

I think the Twins comp for what Seattle sent would have been Lewis & Rodriguez at the top and Balozovic & Varland from the mound.  Seems like a lot for a guy might be a fine starter but LOST 16 games last year, has won four this year and has no post-season track record.  I know that the next thing I'm gonna hear is that he's only won four games because the Reds are a dumpster fire but actually taking a look at things shows that they are 16th in MLB in both batting average and runs scored it's not like he's got nothing around him. 

The real question we need to be asking now is what would the price be for Montas or Mahle?  I believe the price for Montas is going to be at least as much as Castillo was, if not higher since he has not yet been moved. 

Which leaves us with what is the price for Mahle?  Would Rodriguez, Encarnancion-Strand and either Balozovic or Varland get the deal done and would you / we do that?

[roger]

A bit off topic, John, but in the same ball field of how do the Twins get better.

First, I would not trade what most are talking about for Castillo or the other guys.  They don’t have what is needed for a long run this year and one very good starter ain’t gonna get it done.  What I expect we will see is a couple small deals for a rental reliever and rental of an old guy starter.  Hopefully there is also a trade for a good, young reliever with 2-4 years of control.

How do the Twins get better?  They don’t get much better until the off-season. Assuming Correa opts out and they don’t resign Sanchez, that’s $44M.  I use it on three players….$20M per year for a starting pitcher, $15M per year for a catcher and $9M per year for a late inning reliever.   As I see it, the Twins are a better team without Correa if they spend the dollars and do it wisely.
 

Go with Palacios at short until Lewis is back.  With Gray, Maeda, Ryan and the new $20M man, the rotation is in good shape.  They also will have Paddack back mid-year.  With Alcala returning to join Duran, Jax and hopefully a few others, the pen should be solid.

[ashbury]

21 minutes ago, roger said:

$20M per year for a starting pitcher

Work a trade with the Nationals for Patrick Corbin.  They may even throw in a good prospect as a sweetener.  Boom.  Done.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

The Patrick Corbin that 4-14 with an ERA of 6.49 and -1.9 WAR?  That's the Patrick Corbin you want to trade for?  Or is there another Patrick Corbin that is good?

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

The Patrick Corbin that 4-14 with an ERA of 6.49 and -1.9 WAR?  That's the Patrick Corbin you want to trade for?  Or is there another Patrick Corbin that is good?

Okay, I wondered whether I was being a little too indirect.  I'll try again.

Pitchers who earn $20M a year typically do it when signed to a multi-year contract.  You can't just decide, "we're going for it, let's sign a guy for a couple years, then get someone else after that."  Five years is a common length.  Corbin is an example of the risk that comes with such a signing (his was six years but five would have been bad enough).  Our FO has shown absolutely zero inclination to take on that particular type of risk.*  Thus, the idea of signing a $20M pitcher is somewhat divorced from reality, unless you are willing to contemplate ending up with another Corbin-type situation.

My joke, such as it was, is that if the goal is merely to spend $20M next season, Corbin is there for the taking right now.  Pardon my using a little shorthand on first try.

 

* My complaint about the FO is that they do seem okay with other forms of risk that I think are just as deadly.

[cmoss84]

4 hours ago, Twodogs said:

The Mariners gave up their #1, #3, and #5 prospects out of their system.  I'm glad the Twins didn't get Castillo.  I mean if the Twins were comparable to the Yankees and the Astros then at that point I'd say go for it and try to win the WS.  But they really aren't at that level.  So best to lay back and find something else on the bargain bin.

This is all fine and dandy, but are we ever going to have a legitimate shot in the playoffs sticking to this mindset every year?

[Craig Arko]

5 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

This is all fine and dandy, but are we ever going to have a legitimate shot in the playoffs sticking to this mindset every year?

Sometimes an illegitimate shot is sufficient. 

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Sometimes an illegitimate shot is sufficient. 

Yeah, but then the other teams shun you.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, roger said:

A bit off topic, John, but in the same ball field of how do the Twins get better.

First, I would not trade what most are talking about for Castillo or the other guys.  They don’t have what is needed for a long run this year and one very good starter ain’t gonna get it done.  What I expect we will see is a couple small deals for a rental reliever and rental of an old guy starter.  Hopefully there is also a trade for a good, young reliever with 2-4 years of control.

How do the Twins get better?  They don’t get much better until the off-season. Assuming Correa opts out and they don’t resign Sanchez, that’s $44M.  I use it on three players….$20M per year for a starting pitcher, $15M per year for a catcher and $9M per year for a late inning reliever.   As I see it, the Twins are a better team without Correa if they spend the dollars and do it wisely.
 

Go with Palacios at short until Lewis is back.  With Gray, Maeda, Ryan and the new $20M man, the rotation is in good shape.  They also will have Paddack back mid-year.  With Alcala returning to join Duran, Jax and hopefully a few others, the pen should be solid.

I agree.  But I also hope that if "a couple small deals" do get made, the Twins don't give up much.  I just don't see investing in this year's team.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

I agree.  But I also hope that if "a couple small deals" do get made, the Twins don't give up much.  I just don't see investing in this year's team.

"He is no fool who loses what he cannot keep, to gain what he cannot lose."

Which is some kind of bogus Zen wisdom, probably, to say that a trade involving a moderate prospect who will be rule-5 eligible in order to keep some other team from snapping up a soso expiring-contract reliever you want, won't hurt anything.

 

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, roger said:

I use it on three players….$20M per year for a starting pitcher, $15M per year for a catcher and $9M per year for a reliever

Names, please.

Which catcher are you giving $15m? Which starter? Reliever? For how long?

[roger]

36 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Names, please.

Which catcher are you giving $15m? Which starter? Reliever? For how long?

I don’t speculate with names, Chief.  That’s what the guys in the FO get paid the big bucks for.  Merely stating a formula of what could help.  

[Shs_2]

1) Lewis  -high end B+

2) Lee.  -Low end B+

3) E- Rod.  B

4) Martin

5) swr.   High end B-

6) Canterino , 7) Steer ? prielipp 9) Waller 10) Julien 11) Povich 12) Raya

13) N. Miller 14) l Varland 15) C. E. Strand  16) R Henriquez 17) Sands    18) Haijjer/ Enlow 19) Balazovic 20) urbina 21)D. Festa  22) De Andrade 23)S.G. Long 24) Mercedes 25. Sevvy  26 Cavaco

 

[Shs_2]

Noelve Marte , the A Ball SS , P Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore 

 

Would be equal to Emanuel Rodriguez , SWR and Austin Martin AND someone like Austin Schulfer 

In my humble opinion that is a stronger group of 4 that what the Reds got from the M's if anything

 

 

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

The Patrick Corbin that 4-14 with an ERA of 6.49 and -1.9 WAR?  That's the Patrick Corbin you want to trade for?  Or is there another Patrick Corbin that is good?

I get that Corbin's got a terrible record this year.  Which means absolutely nothing going forward.  Three years ago every fan in the state was in on this guy.  Three days ago every fan in the state was in on Castillo and he lead the league in losses last year.  Cy Young and Sparky Lyle aren't gonna be on this roster two days from now.  We're either going to be underwhelmed with the guys we get or stunned at the price tag. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I get that Corbin's got a terrible record this year.  Which means absolutely nothing going forward.  Three years ago every fan in the state was in on this guy.  Three days ago every fan in the state was in on Castillo and he lead the league in losses last year.  Cy Young and Sparky Lyle aren't gonna be on this roster two days from now.  We're either going to be underwhelmed with the guys we get or stunned at the price tag. 

It goes way beyond a terrible record this year. Patrick Corbin is one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, and was last year, too. Corbin was actually tied with Castillo in losses last year for the record (I hate pitcher records as a stat, but it's the stat you presented). The Nats would have to trade a big time prospect along with Corbin while eating most of his deal (he's paid 24M next year and 35M the year after) just to get teams to listen if they called other teams on him. He's the least tradeable asset in baseball right now.

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, roger said:

I don’t speculate with names, Chief.  That’s what the guys in the FO get paid the big bucks for.  Merely stating a formula of what could help.  

There's only one catcher who will be worth $15M per year and he'll probably get more than that. Gary Sanchez might be the 2nd best free agent catcher next year. You giving him $15M?

As for the starting pitchers, deGrome, Verlander and Rodon are probably the only guys who will be able to get $20M next year. Neither gray beards deGrome or Verlander seem likely to pick MN when they're currently playing for 1st place teams, they tend to chase championships or preferred locations. So you'd have to beat the other 29 teams for Rodon, who'll now probably get closer to $30M per year due to a lack of comparable arms.

That free agent money is going towards another shortstop.

[roger]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

There's only one catcher who will be worth $15M per year and he'll probably get more than that. Gary Sanchez might be the 2nd best free agent catcher next year. You giving him $15M?

As for the starting pitchers, deGrome, Verlander and Rodon are probably the only guys who will be able to get $20M next year. Neither gray beards deGrome or Verlander seem likely to pick MN when they're currently playing for 1st place teams, they tend to chase championships or preferred locations. So you'd have to beat the other 29 teams for Rodon, who'll now probably get closer to $30M per year due to a lack of comparable arms.

That free agent money is going towards another shortstop.

As I have stated, I have no interest in speculating who.  Merely putting out a blueprint that could make the Twins a lot better in 2023.  The main point is that with Sanchez and Correa off the roster, they will have $44M.  Expect Sano will also be gone which would put them at what, $50M or more available.  Sure as heck should be able to get some talent back with that amount to spend.  And as for shortstop, the Twins don't need to get him from free agency.  They have Lewis by summer with Palacios handling the spot until Lewis is back.  Furthermore, Correa is proving that spending $35M on any player isn't smart for the Twins.  

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, roger said:

As I have stated, I have no interest in speculating who.  Merely putting out a blueprint that could make the Twins a lot better in 2023.  The main point is that with Sanchez and Correa off the roster, they will have $44M.  Expect Sano will also be gone which would put them at what, $50M or more available.  Sure as heck should be able to get some talent back with that amount to spend.  And as for shortstop, the Twins don't need to get him from free agency.  They have Lewis by summer with Palacios handling the spot until Lewis is back.  Furthermore, Correa is proving that spending $35M on any player isn't smart for the Twins.  

Well I'm just pointing out that your blue print, as far as catcher and starting pitcher goes, isn't available.

They've done it the other way where they nickel and dime a half dozen free agents way too often. That way tends to work out worse than getting a big free agent.

Correa >>>>>>>> Simmons, Haap, Schoemaker, Colome.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, roger said:

As I have stated, I have no interest in speculating who.  Merely putting out a blueprint that could make the Twins a lot better in 2023.  The main point is that with Sanchez and Correa off the roster, they will have $44M.  Expect Sano will also be gone which would put them at what, $50M or more available.  Sure as heck should be able to get some talent back with that amount to spend.  And as for shortstop, the Twins don't need to get him from free agency.  They have Lewis by summer with Palacios handling the spot until Lewis is back.  Furthermore, Correa is proving that spending $35M on any player isn't smart for the Twins.  

As Nick has pointed out, and I was hinting at, your plan is pretty unfeasible. 

There aren't players out there that fit those projected salaries. Musgrove perhaps but he's staying in San Diego.

I'd be ok with spending $9m on a reliever (although you and I would be among the few here who would be), but anyone getting that coin is getting it for probably 3 years minimum. But I still need a name. Who are you giving $27/3 years to?

For the record, I'll be extremely disappointed if the plan for SS next year is Palacios/Lewis.

That's a recipe for needing a SS next deadline. 

Also concur with Nick...the way to spend $44m next year isn't on eleven $4m players. Get a difference maker or two. 

[roger]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

As Nick has pointed out, and I was hinting at, your plan is pretty unfeasible. 

There aren't players out there that fit those projected salaries. Musgrove perhaps but he's staying in San Diego.

I'd be ok with spending $9m on a reliever (although you and I would be among the few here who would be), but anyone getting that coin is getting it for probably 3 years minimum. But I still need a name. Who are you giving $27/3 years to?

For the record, I'll be extremely disappointed if the plan for SS next year is Palacios/Lewis.

That's a recipe for needing a SS next deadline. 

Also concur with Nick...the way to spend $44m next year isn't on eleven $4m players. Get a difference maker or two. 

Sorry for upsetting you all who can see five months into the future and know who is going to be available and at what price.  And maybe like with any plan, you spend a little more on X and a little less on Y.  My post was intended as a general idea, ie, with the two guys gone they have lots of money to spend and should get several very good players at positions of need.  Sorry, you both have my apologies.

[Twodogs]

23 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

This is all fine and dandy, but are we ever going to have a legitimate shot in the playoffs sticking to this mindset every year?

I think I mentioned that had the Twins been playing at the Yankee or Astro, or Dodgers level then yeah go for it.  I mean if they are on pace to win 105 games then go ahead and give up prospect capital and go for it.  But if they are on pace to win 84 games then I don't think it's a good idea to give it p that much prospect capital.  

 

My next thing that I always think about is why they don't go out and go for it a little bit more in free agency??  I mean at that point in time it's money they are spending and if the twins have a bad first half then they could trade those guys and not even have to pay them anymore.  Whereas if they are playing in the world series then it was worth it.

[nicksaviking]

12 minutes ago, roger said:

Sorry for upsetting you all who can see five months into the future and know who is going to be available and at what price.  And maybe like with any plan, you spend a little more on X and a little less on Y.  My post was intended as a general idea, ie, with the two guys gone they have lots of money to spend and should get several very good players at positions of need.  Sorry, you both have my apologies.

Not that I think you're being sincere, but MLBTR has next year's free agent classes listed by position. It's a great resource to project who is going to be available five months into the future:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/2022-23-mlb-free-agents.html

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Not that I think you're being sincere, but MLBTR has next year's free agent classes listed by position. It's a great resource to project who is going to be available five months into the future:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/2022-23-mlb-free-agents.html

*projected to be available 

Musgrove was on that list this morning