Twins 7, Padres 4: Correa’s Clutch Homer Sparks Late-Inning Rally

[Thiéres Rabelo]

The Twins snapped the three-game losing streak and evened the series against the Padres in San Diego behind a fantastic offensive display in the eighth inning, set in motion by a clutch two-run home run by Carlos Correa. Sonny Gray had a solid start, and the bullpen was mostly solid for four innings.

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray, 5 IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 5K (79 pitches, 52 strikes, 65.8%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (26), Carlos Correa (13)
Top 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (.187), Byron Buxton (.173) Sonny Gray (.147)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Both starting pitchers displayed dominance for the first portion of this game, especially San Diego’s Joe Musgrove. The former Pirate retired the first eight batters he faced and ten of the first eleven. Sonny Gray wasn’t just as sharp and got some vital help from a beautiful 6-4-3 double play turned in by the Twin defense in the second, which prevented a run from scoring later that same inning. San Diego struck first when Manny Machado hit a two-out solo home run in the third on a gorgeous swing, his eighteenth of the season.

But it wouldn’t take long for the Twins to respond. In the top of the fourth, they almost tied the game when Carlos Correa crushed a fastball for a long foul ball that was just foul. Musgrove needed to do something to avoid that kind of contact, and he was almost successful at it against Byron Buxton, who fell behind 0-2 on two swinging strikes. But came the third pitch of the at-bat, he returned to his four-seamer, and Buxton got all of it. He obliterated that pitch (111.1 MPH exit velocity) for a game-tying solo shot.

Gray didn’t show any signs that the home run he gave up affected him, as he pitched a perfect fourth with two strikeouts. But Musgrove came back for the fifth and had his shakiest inning in the game, allowing Minnesota to take its first lead of the series. Jose Miranda was hit by a pitch to lead off the inning, and he would end up scoring the go-ahead run after a Nick Gordon single and a Gilberto Celestino line drive to right. This could’ve been an even more productive inning for Minnesota, with two men on and the top of the lineup coming up, but Luis Arraez and Correa both struck out to end the inning.

Gray delivered another solid scoreless frame in the fifth, pitching around a leadoff single to He-Seong Kim, and he was pulled from the game at 79 pitches. With today’s outing, he has back-to-back starts in which he allows one earned run or less for the first time since June 15. It’s a relief to see him perform this well against such a strong opponent, especially after a few rocky starts this month. Before today’s game, he had allowed three or more earned runs in four of his previous six games, which drove his season ERA to near four.

Minnesota caught a huge break during the seventh inning. After a C.J. Abrams one-out single against Trevor Megill that broke an 0-for-8 skid for the Padres offense, left-fielder Jurickson Profar hit a hard groundball that would much likely tie the game or at least send Abrams to third. However, the ball hit second base umpire Jerry Layne, and Abrams was forced to stay at second base. Megill departed the game right away, and Griffin Jax came in to brilliantly get the final two outs of the inning.

Correa’s home run sparks a five-run inning
Arráez got his first hit of the day in the eighth inning with a one-out single to right. Correa would bat after him, having struck out in each one of his previous three at-bats. Just as the Fox commentators were talking about his possible “Golden Sombrero,” he crushed a 2-2 four-seamer up the middle for a 414-feet home run, making it 4-1 Minnesota.

The Twins blitz continued. After a pitching change that brought Dinelson Lamet to pitch for the Padres, Correa’s homer was followed by a Buxton single (and a stolen base by him) and a Jorge Polanco walk. With only one out, Kyle Garlick grounded into a force out which was going to be a double play, but Abrams made a throwing error to first, allowing Buxton to score. Lamet couldn’t stop the bleeding, and two more runs would score on two hits. First, Miranda hit a long single to drive in Garlick and allow him to stretch it into second. Then, Gordon hit a long line drive to left that bounced and reached the seats, scoring Miranda on a ground rule double, making it 7-1 Minnesota.

After Emilio Pagan, Megill, and Jax combined for two scoreless, Jhoan Duran cruised through the bottom of the eighth on eleven pitches. Then, despite the six-run lead, Tyler Duffey scared us all. He retired the first batter he faced at the bottom of the ninth, but gave up a walk and hit a batter in the next two at-bats. Then, Profar hit a three-run home run, keeping San Diego's hopes alive. Fortunately, Duffey was able to strike out Machado and induce a game-ending groundout against Eric Hosmer.

What’s Next?
The rubber game of the series is scheduled for tomorrow at 3:10 pm CDT. Dylan Bundy (5.02 ERA) takes the mound for the Twins, while Sean Manaea (4.33 ERA) gets the start for the Padres.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Duffey	25	0	0	0	28	53
Moran	0	21	0	25	0	46
Cano	0	46	0	0	0	46
Cotton	0	33	0	13	0	46
Duran	32	0	0	0	11	43
Pagán	20	0	0	0	20	40
Jax	12	0	0	0	11	23
Smith	17	0	0	0	0	17
Megill	0	10	0	0	7	17

 

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[Seth Stohs]

Key Play: No question the biggest play of the game was Profar drilling the 2nd base umpire. If it doesn't hit the ump, it's a 2-2 game and that inning takes on a whole new direction, potentially. 

Megill - First pitch tonight, 100... After that, nothing but low-80s slow, 12-6 curveballs, which are a nice pitch, but man, I'd like to see him throw the heat a bit more. He can be a late-inning guy. 

[Danchat]

Nice outing, got a couple runs on one of the better starters in baseball and then dominated the back half of their bullpen. Hopefully the offense can do this on a more consistent basis.

Not sure why Gray was pulled after the 5th at 79 pitches... is he not allowed to start a new inning over 75 pitches or something? Having Pagan face the top of their lineup in the 6th seems just as bad as having Gray go a 3rd time through the lineup.

And if I had to make a chart in who I have the least confidence in our bullpen... Duffey is climbing back up that list again. Kinda incredible how bad some of them have been even in low leverage situations!

[Nashvilletwin]

Nice bounce back win!  Now let’s take the series tomorrow. 

[cHawk]

Awesome! Twins win! Let's win the series tomorrow!

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Nice outing, got a couple runs on one of the better starters in baseball and then dominated the back half of their bullpen. Hopefully the offense can do this on a more consistent basis.

Not sure why Gray was pulled after the 5th at 79 pitches... is he not allowed to start a new inning over 75 pitches or something? Having Pagan face the top of their lineup in the 6th seems just as bad as having Gray go a 3rd time through the lineup.

And if I had to make a chart in who I have the least confidence in our bullpen... Duffey is climbing back up that list again. Kinda incredible how bad some of them have been even in low leverage situations!

All of which adds up to 5 relievers, with Duran throwing the 8th with a 6 run lead.

 

That's...questionable managing, IYAM.

Glad we got the win, but these kinds of messups add up. 

[ashbury]

[FlyingFinn]

Any news on Kirilloff's wrist?

[terrydactyls]

The announcers said Kepler and Sano went on the IL.  Any news about that?

Also, I liked AJ Pierzinski's comment that Baldelli's handling of the bullpen is textbook for wearing out arms.  He just couldn't understand why Gray was done after 79 pitches.  And neither do I.

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

All of which adds up to 5 relievers, with Duran throwing the 8th with a 6 run lead.

 

That's...questionable managing, IYAM.

Glad we got the win, but these kinds of messups add up. 

I couldn't believe that. Wasted inning on his arm. Totally unnecessary. 

,500 since All-Star break. I hope Cleveland and Chicago don't get hot.

It seemed like nobody wanted to win the AL West in 1987 either. And that turned out pretty well for us. We did have a lot better pitching, though.

[howeda7]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

All of which adds up to 5 relievers, with Duran throwing the 8th with a 6 run lead.

 

That's...questionable managing, IYAM.

Glad we got the win, but these kinds of messups add up. 

In Rocco's defense, Duran was already warming up when it was 2-1 and once he's warmed up, they're going to use him. 

[KirbyDome89]

The final score doesn't really show it, but the bullpen was pretty awful again tonight. Megill was bailed out by that dead ball play, Pagan once again allowed multiple base runners during a single inning of work, and Duffey did his best to give up a 6 run lead. 

[BH67]

The 2022 Twins are the most unpredictable baseball team I've ever seen.

[Whitey333]

I totally agree that this Twins team is totally unpredictable.  Yesterday's win was welcome but definitely had some flaws and question marks in it.  Rocco continues to misuse this so-called pitching staff.  All year long over- using the bullpen.  IMO Gray shouldn't have been pulled after 5 innings and 79 pitches.  He was pitching well.  The starters should be able to go 6 or 7 innings by now.  This just wears down the bullpen.  Using Duran in that game was a waste.  A pitcher doesn't have to go in to pitch just because he had been warming up earlier.  Pitchers have been getting warmed up and then not pitch for decades.  It shouldn't kill them.  Duffey unfortunately turned a romp into a closer than should be game.  We should be used to that.  The umpire getting hit by that batted ball surely helped.  It would have tied the game at that point.  On the other hand, Padres still had two chances to get him in and they didn't.  Glad we won 7-4.  Just keep in mind that we are 1-3 on this road trip.  Even a win today would be nice but still be a bad road trip.  We need a win today then come home to beat up on the tigers for three games.

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, howeda7 said:

In Rocco's defense, Duran was already warming up when it was 2-1 and once he's warmed up, they're going to use him. 

Why? 

You can't change course once the situation changes?

Warmed and not used is pretty obviously less stressful than warmed and used.

They've got exactly one pretty reliable late game reliever. He's been used on back-to-back days only 2 times all season, so who knows if he is available today.

Putting him in a game when you're up 6 isn't smart, no matter how you got there. 

There was time to get another reliever up.

 

[mikelink45]

Rocco will never be understood by most of us.  His use of BP is just what AJ said - he hit it!  When you use that kind of BP it forces a Duffey in the ninth - not good. 

I need a roster update - that seems to be in the minor league report - I will check there, but right now I do not know who is where?

[teachercoach]

This is 1st 20 game segment were Twins didn't go at least 11-9 (88-72, +2more game).

9-11 since 44-36. 88ish wins should do it, but schedule is tougher the next 60.

Still much more enjoyable to be engaged daily and in 1st place, than last year!

[USAFChief]

48 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

 

I need a roster update - that seems to be in the minor league report - I will check there, but right now I do not know who is where?

Go to the "News" page, tap the 2 line "hamburger" drop down menu, then select "Twins Resources." 

There you'll find rosters.

[jmlease1]

Duran hadn't pitched for 4 days, so they wanted to get him out there. While over-using pitchers in the bullpen and wearing them out is frequently seen as a major issue (I don't think the data is very clear on this), having hyper-defined roles for your bullpen and saving your "closer" for save situations creates a different problem in that your best pitchers don't pitch as often as they should. Duran is still available to pitch again today if there's a high leverage situation, and if there isn't he'll be available for 1-2 innings to start the Detroit series on monday. He was already warming, so it made sense to bring him in to face the 4-5-6 guys in the 8th (and he did the job perfectly).

Duffey looks like he's just another guy now, and he'll be easy to push down in the pecking order or move on from entirely. It's too bad; I was really hoping last season might have been an aberration and that he might have been able to tick the walks back down and the Ks back up, but it's looking more likely that the previous two seasons were the career peaks. Too bad. I don't really blame Rocco from running him out for the 9th with a 6 run lead: it was the sort of low leverage situation that you use your lesser relievers for. But it really grinds my gears to see how poorly he and many of our bullpen guys have done against the bottom 3 spots in a lineup.

We need to get 2 new, quality righty arms in the bullpen at the deadline, full stop. After Duran and Jax, there's just not enough guys to have confidence in. Megill is ok. Pagan & Cotton can't find the strike zone consistently enough to make their stuff play and Joe Smith & Duffey are too hittable to go in high leverage roles. (I think we're ok on the lefty side with Thielbar & Moran)

Good job by the offense to get the big inning and secure the win. Loved the good baserunning from Miranda to grab the extra base on the throw after his clutch single. He's really hitting well and looking like the player we were hoping for. He's never going to be a great defensive player, but should be serviceable at 3B, especially if he keeps hitting like this. I would not be inclined to send him out in a trade, because I think he locks down 3B for us for the next 5 years.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

All of which adds up to 5 relievers, with Duran throwing the 8th with a 6 run lead.

 

That's...questionable managing, IYAM.

Glad we got the win, but these kinds of messups add up. 

Chief, I agree about questionable management. AJ Pierzynski was the color man on the mlb/tv game last night. AJ also questioned why Gray was not sent out for the 6th inning because the bullpen had been overworked already this year and Gray had had a good, short 5th inning.  AJ also said Gordan should have advanced to 3B instead of stopping at 2B on the Celestino hit to RF. He said there was now way he would have been thrown out. AJ criticized Pagan's errant throw to 1B, saying when you come in a game, you've got to be ready to play. I had not been an AJ fan, he is too abrasive for me. but AJ kept making really good points. I  did not watch the start of the game, so I did not know  who the color man was until late in the game. He also said Gordan may be wearing his pants above his knees in order to get more balls called on low pitches when he is batting. A really interesting point. All in all, AJ really show some keen baseball knowledge. I enjoyed his comments.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Duran hadn't pitched for 4 days, so they wanted to get him out there. While over-using pitchers in the bullpen and wearing them out is frequently seen as a major issue (I don't think the data is very clear on this), having hyper-defined roles for your bullpen and saving your "closer" for save situations creates a different problem in that your best pitchers don't pitch as often as they should. Duran is still available to pitch again today if there's a high leverage situation, and if there isn't he'll be available for 1-2 innings to start the Detroit series on monday. He was already warming, so it made sense to bring him in to face the 4-5-6 guys in the 8th (and he did the job perfectly).

Duffey looks like he's just another guy now, and he'll be easy to push down in the pecking order or move on from entirely. It's too bad; I was really hoping last season might have been an aberration and that he might have been able to tick the walks back down and the Ks back up, but it's looking more likely that the previous two seasons were the career peaks. Too bad. I don't really blame Rocco from running him out for the 9th with a 6 run lead: it was the sort of low leverage situation that you use your lesser relievers for. But it really grinds my gears to see how poorly he and many of our bullpen guys have done against the bottom 3 spots in a lineup.

We need to get 2 new, quality righty arms in the bullpen at the deadline, full stop. After Duran and Jax, there's just not enough guys to have confidence in. Megill is ok. Pagan & Cotton can't find the strike zone consistently enough to make their stuff play and Joe Smith & Duffey are too hittable to go in high leverage roles. (I think we're ok on the lefty side with Thielbar & Moran)

Good job by the offense to get the big inning and secure the win. Loved the good baserunning from Miranda to grab the extra base on the throw after his clutch single. He's really hitting well and looking like the player we were hoping for. He's never going to be a great defensive player, but should be serviceable at 3B, especially if he keeps hitting like this. I would not be inclined to send him out in a trade, because I think he locks down 3B for us for the next 5 years.

Really good post. Thanks JM.

[BobAzar]

10 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Key Play: No question the biggest play of the game was Profar drilling the 2nd base umpire. If it doesn't hit the ump, it's a 2-2 game and that inning takes on a whole new direction, potentially. 

 

I'd like to see that umpire's WPA for the game.

[twinfan]

I think it was interesting how Sanchez took a first pitch, down the middle (except for his last at bat which was a bit high inside) strike then proceeded to strike out every time up. Don't know what he was thinking but he needs to do much better. But thankfully we didn't need him in this game. Hopefully August will be a month where we can get healthy and put some distance between us and Cleveland and Chicago before we play them throughout the month of September. 

[wabene]

Another vote for AJ on the mic. This is the 3rd game I've watched that he's done. He has a little edge to him I like.

I've always liked LaTroy and now Perkins coming on has been good. Those games where we had both LaTroy and Perk were the best yet. More of that please and Lessneau. 

[Dman]

I guess the thing I don't understand is Duffy walking the number 8 guy after having him at 2-2.  The number 8 guy is the guy you challenge because you don't want to face the top of the order with hitters that do the most damage.  I turned it off right after the walk I was so frustrated.  I never even saw that he hit the next batter to give both the 8 and 9 hitters free passes he literally deserved to get nailed for the HR after not making the two worst batters on the team earn their way on.

I mean I will give him credit as he settled down to get the next two batters but he is supposed to be a pro and has been at this level for years. For Duffy to not be ready for the 8 and 9 hole batters seems like a sign the guy just doesn't have it anymore.  You're a pro you need to be ready right from the start.  I am sorry but he is not a reliever I would want on my team.  

[Karbo]

I thought A.J. was right on with his observations. Pulling Gray was another example of Rocco not properly handling a pitching staff. Gordon should have been on 3rd, and Miranda was smart. IMHO, Rocco needs to pull his head out of his a#@ and let the starters go until they are showing signs of tiring. Our pen is the weakest part of our team, yet he keeps piling on the innings. Another inning from Gray last night would have spared an outing for the pen. Its time to let these guys go as deep as they possibly can. If the Twins don't win the division it's probably time for a new manager. The only way I can see them winning it is the FO needs to step up and get at least 2 bullpen arms, and maybe chat with Rocco about how he handles the pitching staff.

[Karbo]

57 minutes ago, wabene said:

Another vote for AJ on the mic. This is the 3rd game I've watched that he's done. He has a little edge to him I like.

I've always liked LaTroy and now Perkins coming on has been good. Those games where we had both LaTroy and Perk were the best yet. More of that please and Lessneau. 

I for one would love to have A.J. on the Bally broadcast with Dick.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The announcers said Kepler and Sano went on the IL.  Any news about that?

Also, I liked AJ Pierzinski's comment that Baldelli's handling of the bullpen is textbook for wearing out arms.  He just couldn't understand why Gray was done after 79 pitches.  And neither do I.

I agree w/ AJ that the way that Baldelli's handling of the bullpen is textbook for wearing out BP arms. But the solution isn't wearing out the rotation. Gray is fresh and ready to bounce back to pitch a great game his next game, not  approaching his next outing not 100%. 

The solution is the balance of SP, long relief & short relief. Until then our pitching will like always have tired arms & injuries

[Strombomb]

I missed what happened to Kirilloff. Can anyone fill me in?

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Lessneau.

I vote for lessley. 

Morneau's not that bad. But then, I'm Canadian, and perhaps biased.?