Twins 1, Padres 10: Twins West Coast Tour Starts with Another Loss

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

I agree with most everything, except for possibly one item.  I hear lots of folks here and elsewhere talk about '23 and beyond, and how that may be our window realistically rather than the here and now.  What is it that leads to that conclusion?  The left side of our infield may very well be gone, our outfield won't be any better than it is now, the catching situation isn't playoff contending caliber as of now, or next  year.  And the pitching staff is counting on young, unproven guys to step up and seize the day up and down the staff, not to mention (but we always have to on this team) trying to stay off the IL.  There will be things that are better, and things that are good now but gone soon.  Overall, how are we contenders in the coming couple of years where we aren't now?  

I guess why I am not feeling the love is because I hear all about the guys coming up through the system that are going to step up and step into the areas we need.  And in the same conversation I hear we haven't got enough high end prospects to put into trades to help us now and still have something left to bring up when the needs come in the next couple of years.  Which is it?  Are we good in the system with good up and coming players, or are the cupboards bare to the point that we can't compete in trade talks?  Because if what we see is what we get in the immediate future I would like to take the kind of shot Seattle just did.  Or at the very least, if we are not going to compete on that level, make the FO be up front and honest about it.  Not that there is much chance of this pair being honest about anything, but at least put the pressure on.  

Your points are well taken. 
 

Going into this season, there was much hope that we had some developing depth among our prospect starters. Outside of Ryan, has that really occurred? 

Catching is an issue. It’s too bad Jeffers got hurt as his bat was just coming around. I think he’s a solid major league catcher.

Assuming we can’t get Correa to stay, the Lewis injury really hurt. He’s a special young man. Assuming he returns and can perform as he was, I’m quite content with an infield of Arraez/Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis and Miranda with those five essentially playing everyday in some capacity (including DH, but we have to slot in Buxton as DH as well).  Btw, outside of Polanco - who is on a very attractive contract - all of those players are cheap and tied up for a while.

Buxton, Larnach, possibly Kepler, and/or some combo of Martin, Wallner and Celestino in the outfield are solid enough.  Gordon and Steer are our utility players. Buxton (notwithstanding Kepler if we keep him but his salary may be better utilised applied to pitching), is the only one of that group who costs money.

So plenty of money to throw at building/rounding out our starting staff, rebuilding our relief core around Duran and Jax, and adding catching depth.

Just my opinion, but I like our core of controllable youngsters and financial flexibility over the next several years. That is why I’m a seller of anyone not likely to contribute and/or is expensive if we can add to this core and build our staff. This would sadly include Correa if we can’t lock him up (which I’d love to see happen).

One other thing though - Rocco’s performance needs to be seriously evaluated. I’m not convinced he’s the right manager (there, I touched the third rail).

[Mark G]

52 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

It's a seller's market.  Time to join the fun and see how desperate other teams are.  Offer up Kepler, Sano, Urshela, Sanchez, Cave, Beckham, and even Polanco.  Who knows what you might get offered?  And if no one offers anything of value, keep the players and you are no worse off than you are now.  This season is over.

All 7 at once, or a smorgasbord where they could pick what they want?    

[bean5302]

Honestly, most of the pitching staff was due for massive regression. Even after being shelled for 10 runs, Ryan still isn't there yet as he lucked out in 4 of 5 of his starts in July. His 3.78 ERA is still way lower than his 4.43 FIP and 4.63 xFIP.

As of June 30, ERA vs FIP vs xFIP and what their season xFIPs have done since June 30th.
Ryan 3.20 vs. 3.93 vs. 4.65 (xFIP is down 0.02)
Gray 2.17 vs. 2.86 vs. 3.31 (xFIP is up 0.48)
Archer 3.08 vs. 4.90 vs. 4.99 (xFIP is up 0.09)
Bundy 4.71 vs. 4.32 vs. 4.44 (xFIP is down 0.10)
Smeltzer 2.86 vs. 4.41 vs. 4.67 (xFIP is up 0.32)

Apart from Bundy, every other Twins pitcher had an ERA at least 1.24 pts lower than their xFIP The rotation is pitching very similar to how they were, they're just not getting ridiculously lucky anymore.

I don't mind the Twins playing Sano. He's on the roster so they could get a peek at him so I don't see the harm in doing what they intended. A couple more days of game time before DFAing him is fine. Now... if Sano continues to struggle at the plate and he's still on the roster after mid August, now there's a problem.

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

The team woes start with the Manager.  Playing Sano is a mistake. The guys needs to be DFA'd. Batting Arraez 6th is a mistake. He should always be batting in front of Buxton. How many of Buxtons solo shots would be 2 or 3 run homers if Rocco knew how to set a lineup? Ryan gives up 10 runs only due to Roccos inability to in-game manage. He'll pull a starter who's at 80 pitches and pitching with the lead and then leaves Ryan in when he clearly doesn't have his best stuff to get hammered and make the game a blowout basically giving the team no chance to come back and win it. 

I said before the All-Star game this team was toast. Thanks to Rocco, the toast is burning.

I sometimes wonder if they purposely set the team up to lose so they have excuses to let the Correa’s of the world go and go into the wait till next year mode.  

[puckstopper1]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

That maybe, maybe pressure from the family to be home more, maybe the money was too much to pass up, maybe a combination of all of the above.......it is a head scratcher.  I can see where one might think something went wrong, though, because I have never read anywhere (maybe someone else has?) that the Twins tried to match or beat the offer.  

Maybe Wes also knew the wheels were be about to fall off the Twins pitching staff so he decided to take a better gig (perhaps before he got fired).

[garn from vancouver]

sano went o-3 and the twins are 0-3 with him in the line-up.

[jorgenswest]

On the Lewis thought..,,

 

The collision into the wall didn’t seems unusual. There had to be a weakness that would have surfaced at some point.

[Danchat]

There was talk about extending Falvey and Levine this year / end of this season... it's Year 6 of their regime and we still haven't won a playoff game, the pitching staff is an unmitigated disaster for a second straight season and we once again do not have pitching prospects in the wings. There are things they do well - they know how to build a solid lineup and develop hitting prospects very well - but how can we sign up for several more years of this with the lack of results?

[Aggies7]

Is there a star for how many games in which a team flat out quits? I’d guess we’d be in the top ten. 

[TwinsChupacabra]

The way Rocco handled the young starter last night was disgusting.  My friends and I watching the game were so angry.  Keep in mind, this game was following a day off where relievers would have been available, We are so sick of Rocco. I'll say it again.  They will never win a playoff game as long as he is manager.  

Watching Sano last night was a joke.  This team is not serious about their performance on the field.

In the story, Gleeman mentioned about how his is the first time in a long while the starter gave up 10 runs.  I was at a game in August 2019 where Berrios gave up 9 runs.  Another Rocco debacle.  In that game they came back with 4 homers but it was too late, Rocco had already thrown the game away. 

Can we trade Rocco, please?

 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

All 7 at once, or a smorgasbord where they could pick what they want?    

All of the above. ?????

[MABB1959]

Remember when a album got a scratch and it would repeat over and over?   Seems we have been listening to the same album for more than 10 years.   That is what it is like being a Twins fan.  

[MABB1959]

Most teams would fire their manager after yesterday.  

[Game7-91]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

A little off subject here, but if the Twins didn't sign Correa, would Lewis have gotten hurt? Did signing Correa (cost) prevent us from signing relievers? What does having our pitching coach leave mid-season mean for our pitching staff the rest of the year?

Ace Wrigley, great to hear from you. I enjoy your posts but have missed seeing them. Your q's today are spot-on. Somebody here needs to do a hard interview with Falvinepohlad and get to the bottom of this drama. I vote for Ace to press the metal to the petal and force some answers. Some possible responses, fwiw:

Q1: "Well, he wouldnt have crashed into the wall, because he WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN PLAYING CF. Here at Twinsland, we realize now our multimillion dollar investment in our #1 guy hasnt been managed well, and we are committted to developing his talent at 1 position only, because it really is just plain silly of us to expend  a #1 pick on a guy we want to use in a utility role. "

Q2: " Thank you, that's a great question. We have no comment at this time, because none of us here can really explain the Correa signing while also doing the Berrios-Rogers trades. Seemed like a great idea at the time, and besides, Scott Boras scares the living hell out of us. We do what he tells us."

Q3: "You know, pitching coaches are all the same, they chew the same chaw, their belly fat flabs over the beltline, hat sizes are a size small, they belch and fart a lot, and at the end of the day, ones about as good as another."

[Doctor Gast]

I thought Ryan/ Snell match up was our best shot of winning a game. Snell isn't that good and Ryan be great at times especially after the DET game. IMO something isn't right in the clubhouse. Maybe Wes Johnson is part of it but I think it could something more. Some of the players seem very uninspired

[nicksaviking]

I’m still not in the “sellers” camp, but watching my new favorite pitcher get flayed alive was the most demoralizing thing I’ve watched this year. 
 

I agree, the loss of Wes Johnson has to be contributing to the pitching collapse. I’m not sure if that’s fixable in-season.

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Aichiman said:

I read that too, but I don't buy it.  I mean it's plausible, but it doesn't explain his abrupt departure in the middle of the season.  Something must have happened within the Twins' organization that alienated Johnson in some way.  What?  I don't know.

Maybe he got tired of Rocco, like the rest of us.

[rv78]

2 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

A little off subject here, but if the Twins didn't sign Correa, would Lewis have gotten hurt? Did signing Correa (cost) prevent us from signing relievers? What does having our pitching coach leave mid-season mean for our pitching staff the rest of the year?

I have often thought the same thing. Lewis at SS wouldn't be running into any outfield walls right? Maybe down the 3rd base line...Hmmm! Not sure signing Correa would have mattered to signing relievers. They basically traded Donaldson to free up money for Correa. I wish they would have kept Kiner-Falafa and settled with a combo of Arraez and Miranda at 3rd. If they could have found someone to give them 2 or 3 really good relievers for Donaldson that might have been better but it's probably tough to trade a high priced aging veteran for more than 1 player in return unless the guys you are getting aren't that good.. I think Correa is over-rated and with that over-paid. Great glove but he's not a game changer with the bat. 

[ashbury]

I liked the interview questions in the post-game video of Rocco.  Direct, and hardly softball questions, that spoke to real concerns, without being some reporter trying to establish some kind of hard-hitting BS reputation through cheap antagonistic antics.

The answers didn't wow me, but then Rocco is a master of (baseball) corporate-speak.  My own style in serious matters is corporate-speak too, so I don't really fault him, except that his on-field results aren't there.  I don't know if a Billy Martin type of replacement would have better results over the long term, because my suspicion is that better results would have to come from a level higher in the corporate food-chain than Rocco himself.

A stronger bullpen would have changed a lot in the past weeks, though obviously the bullpen can't win a game like this one.  It would make 4-inning stints from Archer or Bundy more feasible.  But conversely, it would address the problem last night of leaving in a guy having a bad outing, like we hope is all it was with Ryan, versus giving him a quick exit.

Rocco spoke of not closing out the other team when there were two outs.  Over the course of the season, the pitching staff overall has been OK with this situation.  But I'd like to hear him address the converse problem, shown by his offense in 2022, because when I looked a few days ago, their own two-out splits showed a lot more dropoff than the MLB norm.

[HokieRif]

I didn't watch the game, but waking up this morning and when I looked at the score I wasn't surprised.  What I looked at Sano's stat line I wasn't surprised.  When I saw the offense go limp I wasn't surprised.  What surprised me was that Rocco let Ryan take all those earned runs without pulling the ejection cord early, and then apparently with no pressure on the bullpen decides to go lights-out the rest of the way - THAT was surprising.

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, HokieRif said:

I didn't watch the game, but waking up this morning and when I looked at the score I wasn't surprised.  What I looked at Sano's stat line I wasn't surprised.  When I saw the offense go limp I wasn't surprised.  What surprised me was that Rocco let Ryan take all those earned runs without pulling the ejection cord early, and then apparently with no pressure on the bullpen decides to go lights-out the rest of the way - THAT was surprising.

You're right, it is confusing.  The BP had 5 days off, played 2 games, had a day off, played 2 games, and had another day off.  So why make Ryan take one for the team, so to speak, only to put Gordon in in the 8th to save the BP another inning?  This guy gets curiouser and curiouser every year I watch him.    

[Squirrel]

6 hours ago, Aichiman said:

I read that too, but I don't buy it.  I mean it's plausible, but it doesn't explain his abrupt departure in the middle of the season.  Something must have happened within the Twins' organization that alienated Johnson in some way.  What?  I don't know.

This has been pretty well documented his reasons for taking the job ... close to home, less travel, more money, and it started NOW, he couldn't wait until the end of season because of how college sports/baseball works and what their schedule is ... let's not invent things because of your dislike for the Twins right now

[cHawk]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Most teams would fire their manager after yesterday.  

Really? Fire the manager when in first place?

[h2oface]

First of all, no teams that wear uniforms in an MLB game like the Padres did, deserve to win a game, especially 10-1.

All of the homers that Ryan gave us were crawlers, barely over the wall. A couple might have been caught (Buxton just missed, and Garlick looks like he can only jump 4 inches). All almost long fly ball outs, and with the 2 out homers, the end of the innings.

But Baldelli can go.................... himself. Shame on him, especially after the game went to 6-1 and 4 homers given up, leave his rookie starter in the game that has been carrying this staff. He clearly was missing locations from the get go with the walk and a homer in the first. All homers that were hit were center cut pitches (all in the center of the plate, one center center and others various heights) except the last one, that was center height but 6-8 inches outside! All just crawled over the fence. Great for confidence Baldy, and thanks for putting Ryan in the wrong category of the record book. No excuse for that. It was not his game, and he deserves better protection. My opinion of Baldelli and his lack of intuition can now never be swayed otherwise. Right now, I can't stand the guy. 

As for Wes Johnson, whatever the pitchers are doing now, he is greatly responsible for. If you learn something, you don't just forget it when the guy is not there a few weeks later. It is still affecting your performance, and probably will for a long time. One might say that Johnson is responsible for the currrent state of affairs. I won't, because I think the coach is always overrated. Usually never could do it themselves, but are all high and mighty about how to do it. I am not saying they are not very helpful and important, just that it is always the player who plays the game, regardless of the coach. This team's pitching was horrible before Johnson left, and got worse as the year went on, with Johnson still there. He is no guru. And he is a quitter. Middle of the season and in first place. No respect. SMH.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Most teams would fire their manager after yesterday.  

And replace him with the guy the Padres just fired? The guy who was probably leaned on most heavily in preparation for this series?

[roger]

I recall the tv guys talking to Ryan during one of the brewer games.  He mentioned something about going back to Cali, surfing, etc.  Also said he would have to be careful cause he was starting Friday.  Is it possible he did some activity which affected his prep for or stamina during the game?  Could Rocco keeping him out there been a lesson to a young pup?  

[MABB1959]

52 minutes ago, cHawk said:

Really? Fire the manager when in first place?

First place in the AL Central isn’t much to brag about.  When they fall out of 1st I don’t think they would get a wild card.   

[MABB1959]

9 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Did we all see what the M’s gave up for Castillo? We’d have to completely gut our prospect list to get to that level - and we need 3-4 Castillo types to realistically have any chance to contend.

The data points are there.  It’s ok to take a step back and reevaluate where this team truly stands with a clear mind and open eyes. Sure - we are clinging to a rapidly evaporating division lead. But we are obviously more than one or two players away. Our window should be more open next year and then the following year than it is now. Any moves we make should be to enhance that realisation, not jeopardise it. 

Watching last night’s game, I was dumbfounded and saddened to see Rocco leave our top young starter in to give up 10 runs. After Machado it was perfectly clear to everyone it was not Ryan’s night. Rocco leaves him in to get battered for four more runs to get one more out. That was inexcusable. I hope Ryan can either forget or learn from that. Psyche’s in young pitchers can be tricky.

Looking for a strong rebound game today!

It’s always “next year”.   And there is the fact that not many prospects survive.  I feel like we wait forever and then they are injured most often.  Don’t you get sick of next year?

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

It’s always “next year”.   And there is the fact that not many prospects survive.  I feel like we wait forever and then they are injured most often.  Don’t you get sick of next year?

So let's do something really stupid instead of executing a plan with the best probability of success.  

BTW ... he number of prospects that "survive has very little value in measuring the impact of trading prospects for elite / established pitching.  That measure would be exclusively the prospects traded for elite pitching.  When you look at prospects returned for pitchers like Sale / Clevinger / Kluber / Shields, etc you will find a much higher frequency of success.  I cringe every time someone uses the failed prospects argument in this context because it is quite misquided.

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, roger said:

I recall the tv guys talking to Ryan during one of the brewer games.  He mentioned something about going back to Cali, surfing, etc.  Also said he would have to be careful cause he was starting Friday.  Is it possible he did some activity which affected his prep for or stamina during the game?  Could Rocco keeping him out there been a lesson to a young pup?  

Well, that is all pretty assumptive. 

A Lesson? Baldelli showed him. Bobby Knight school of pain.