What Would an Ideal Trade Deadline Look Like for The Twins?

[KirbyDome89]

12 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

It starts with them getting some injured pitchers back.  They are missing Ober / Paddack / Alcala / Maeda and Dobnak.  Hard to say what Dobnal provides but it's worth mentioning.  Get Winder back as a permanent addition and replace Archer / Bundy with a top of the rotation free agent and add a back of the BP free agent and you have a very different pitching staff.  Of course, the response will be that the Twins won't spend on pitching.  I would suggest they have not spent big on pitching but they have never been in the position they will be next season.  They will only have roughly a $73M payroll and they will already have Gray / Ryan / Wider / Ober / Maeda, eventually Paddack plus Smeltzer / Dobnak for depth.  

The only hole to fill among position players is catcher and who knows maybe Hamilton impresses the remainder of the season.  It's not like Palacios is horrible and Lewis should be inserted by mid-season.  Miranda and Kirilloff are night and day better than they were to start this season so their emergence makes us better next year.   Those two also collectively save us $30M which could be invested in pitching.  They could also afford Willson Contreras.

Yes, they need to execute on landing a free agent SP and RP but that's all they need to do to make this a darn good team next year.  So, we will see if they are just dead set against spending on pitching.  Keep in mind, I am the guy who was against such a move in previous years.  I have a totally different opinion now because of the situation I just outlined.  There is a reasonable chance the FO will also be much more open to spending on a top free agent SP.

How does Musgrove / Gray / Ryan / Maeda / Winder sound for a rotation with Ober / Paddack / Smeltzer / Dobnak for depth?  An infield of Kirilloff / Polanco eventually Lewis and Miranda.  BP of Duran a LH free agent / Alcala / Jax and three among Thielbar / Megill / Hamilton / Moran / Sisk / Schulfer / etc.  We could also use Two of Ober / Paddack / Smeltzer / Dobnak could be used as multi-inning RPs.  This all fits within a roughly $130M budget.  This looks like a better team than we have at the moment to me.

So count on Ober to suddenly shake the injuries and give you 150 innings? Paddack is available for half the year at best, Maeda turns 35, and we're banking on both immediately post TJ? Which version of Alcala are they getting? Winder was just shut down again with a shoulder issue that has persisted for a year now. Sure, we can call Dobnak and Smeltzer depth, but the reality is they're AAAA guys, at least as starters. Ideally the depth would come from the much hyped pipeline, but ahhh yeah, we've seen how that has looked to this point. Essentially you have them shuffling the deck chairs + the FO committing big money/years to a front line SP. It just feels like asking for disappointment on both fronts. 

"Not horrible," shouldn't be the bar to clear for a starting SS on a team that's looking to compete. The Twins need to sign an actual SS, at least for the year. The plan can't be to hold water and hope Lewis can take over midseason after recovering from his 2nd torn ACL. 

The off chance that 6+ players hit their absolute best case scenario next year doesn't seem like a viable reason to stand pat and not improve an obviously flawed, but division leading team this year. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Because he’s a good pitcher.

No, he once was a good pitcher.  Now he is a mediocre pitcher.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So count on Ober to suddenly shake the injuries and give you 150 innings? Paddack is available for half the year at best, Maeda turns 35, and we're banking on both immediately post TJ? Which version of Alcala are they getting? Winder was just shut down again with a shoulder issue that has persisted for a year now. Sure, we can call Dobnak and Smeltzer depth, but the reality is they're AAAA guys, at least as starters. Ideally the depth would come from the much hyped pipeline, but ahhh yeah, we've seen how that has looked to this point. Essentially you have them shuffling the deck chairs + the FO committing big money/years to a front line SP. It just feels like asking for disappointment on both fronts. 

"Not horrible," shouldn't be the bar to clear for a starting SS on a team that's looking to compete. The Twins need to sign an actual SS, at least for the year. The plan can't be to hold water and hope Lewis can take over midseason after recovering from his 2nd torn ACL. 

The off chance that 6+ players hit their absolute best case scenario next year doesn't seem like a viable reason to stand pat and not improve an obviously flawed, but division leading team this year. 

When did I ever suggest they stand pat?  I just don't support the unprecedented type actions being suggested here where we trade of 5 players.  It is pure fantasy.   Name a team that has ever done what is being suggested.  If we are that bad off they should be selling.

[DocBauer]

Just wanted to post my general thoughts and opinions on Nick's OP and the state of the Twins in general. It's going to be long, but follow me here.

1] Overall, I think the Twins have a good team and a lot of quality talent. It's not ALL "ALL STAR" caliber but nobody has ALL STAR talent EVERYWHERE. And I know a piece of two could be moved, but when I look at a daily team of Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, Kirilloff, and yes, even Jeffers, I'm excited about what I see, with a few more bats getting really close and some solid bench/role players. Yes, SS is a question mark, and one that's not going to be answered until the offseason. 

A healthy Gray is a very good pitcher, not only in the past, but this year as well. Ryan is a very good looking young arm with a good future, though I don't know just HOW GOOD he might end up. But how could anyone know right now? I think Ober has been missed, is good, and has a nice future, even if he's only a solid #4 type. But again, I think the Twins are really missing him right now. I think Winder has a real chance to be good, and maybe very good. And no way he's traded right now with a re-accurance of his shoulder issue. And I don't know if that's still a result of 2020 and loss of natural maturation and usage and build up, or something physical that needs to be taken care of. But the Twins need to FIGURE IT OUT and get him right. A healthy Paddack is a  2023 mid season "acquisition" with another year of control and potential to be a solid piece of the rotation. He's talented and very young and his early work with the Twins in 2022 was encouraging. A healthy, experienced, and savy Maeda might not approach his 2020. But he has the ability to still be very solid, if 100%. The pitching "pipeline" HAS brought the Twins some arms, but for various reasons, it's behind the lineup to be sure. 

And as much as we bang on the bullpen, we've seen Duran make a serious mark. We've seen Jax make a great transition, and we've seen Alacala at least tease the same. Moran looks at least useful, if not potentially good. 

2] All of this to say there's a lot of good here, including a system that is very deep with a lot of talent, even if it's not flush with projected top 100 NAMES that scream difference makers. But then again, not all top 100 players turn out, and "difference makers" aren't always top 100 players. Arraez, on the Twins now, is a perfect example. 

3] The Twins aren't smoke and mirrors. They are a good team with a lot of talent and a very nice projectible future with a nice window, still open, after a poor 2021. 

Crazy how a last place team is suddenly winning and doing well and all to often we can only see the "bad things" in a FLIP season.

There are NEEDS to take this team to the next level. Some of those are purely health related. Some are related to continued development and promotion. Some are trades, or FA related to augment what is on hand.

There! Done!

Now to the OP!

This team, and organization as it stands now, is built for the future. But it's also built for NOW with some additions. That's why Correa was signed and Gray was traded for. 

I don't like to participate in the "trade game" because while it might be fun, it's such a complete mystery we might as well try to predict the next draft. 

1] The Twins need a SP as good as Gray and Ryan. That could be a "so called" #3 who is really good. I think we need to just STOP with the trade for some #1 SP. How many, guaranteed #1 SP are available to acquire??? There's a handful of very good SP that are available, such as Castillo and Montas. And they are very good pitchers. Are they that much better than a healthy Gray or Ryan? Opinions will vary. But they are at least equivalent.  But they are not the only available arms that are good, experienced, and as good as Gray and Ryan. Mahle and Marquez are a pair of arms that could be as good with a change of scenery and give the Twins a trio of legitimate playoff arms. I don't hate Nick's idea of adding Thor, but he's not the pitcher he has been before. He just might be closer to his old self in 2023, and a possible re-sign, but he wouldn't be a bad "cheap" trade option for an experienced and solid #3 for now.

2] Bard is my dream #2 RP trade target,  but I just can't see trading a top 15 pitching prospect in Povich. I just think think that's too rich for a rental. Love to have him as my #2 choice and maybe re-sign him, but I'd rather see a slightly lesser prospect or a 2 for 1 deal. I like Robertson from the Cubs more, but splitting hairs. Everyone is looking to add BP pieces? I get it. But do rentals really cost top 10-15 prospects to do so? Has a single WC addition really escalated the value of a rental that much? If so, it's worth it IF the FO really likes what they acquire and recognize they have the payroll to re-sign to make it worthwhile. 

3] Texas flier on Matt Moore for Julien and SGL? Again, a top offensive player and a solid arm for what I believe is a rental.  Are you ready to give up that much, knowing you have a deep system, for a 1 year surprise that you MIGHT re-sign? I could see this one happening and I think I'd do it in a heartbeat because of immediate return and what should be an easy re-sign if we like him. 

4] Hill from Boston for Sano? Sounds crazy. But honestly, we're talking about fits and non fits and the "good, bad and ugly" if it was a Western. I don't know that Hill does anything better than the "solid" Bundy. In fact, with $ thrown in, Boston might win the deal in long run. But I don't think Sano to ANYONE makes or breaks anything of value unless he's tossed in, along with $, as part of a deal. Personally, I see him as a part of a deal to Cincinnati, Colorado, or Miami as part of a 3-5 deal with $ for a SP AND  a BP arm.  A not yet 30yo 1B/DH with a career. 800+ OPS could be very interesting to at least a few teams looking to re-build and needing a dangerous bat, as a piece of a trade. Not a centerpiece, of course, but as part of a trade with $ thrown in.

4] No shade intended toward Hamilton, who might aquit himself well, but the idea of ANY experienced ML catcher for a low level PTBN could be very smart addition just to handle the staff at a ML level. 

SYNOPIS:

Nick isn't wrong, though I disagree somewhat with his proposals.

DON'T blow up the roster, or the system,  just for 2022, and beyond because the team is primed to move forward.

DO trade from within the team and system, and a deep system, and you can't keep everyone,  unless asking prices are just exorbitant, to add a SP, 2 BP pieces.

Add a catcher on the very cheap if you can. And don't worry about a 4th or 5th SP addition unless it comes very cheap. 

This is good team. It's a primed team with a widow that is still open even after 2021. Injuries have sunk part of their competitive capabilities. Now it's time for the FO to show what they're we made of to make additions without screwing up the future. 

 

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

When did I ever suggest they stand pat?  I just don't support the unprecedented type actions being suggested here where we trade of 5 players.  It is pure fantasy.   Name a team that has ever done what is being suggested.  If we are that bad off they should be selling.

Thats the beauty of playing in the AL Central in 2022; you can be incredibly flawed and still lead the division...

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Thats the beauty of playing in the AL Central in 2022; you can be incredibly flawed and still lead the division...

You seem to be suggesting the twins trade away players that will / should be important for the next several years in order to improve a "incredibly flawed" team for the short-term.  I guess that's fine for a fan to be obsessed with the right now.  If you are a GM / PBO, it's a good way to lose your job and also make sure you never get another one at the same level.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

You seem to be suggesting the twins trade away players that will / should be important for the next several years in order to improve a "incredibly flawed" team for the short-term.  I guess that's fine for a fan to be obsessed with the right now.  If you are a GM / PBO, it's a good way to lose your job and also make sure you never get another one at the same level.

I'm confused. You ARE advocating standing pat? Or you aren't?

 

Please educate us mere "fans."

 

[RJA]

Lots of great ideas being floated.  If I were in the FO, I would look to add Rodon if possible.  He is on an expiring contract of sorts (everyone knows he will opt out) so the cost should be less, and he has number one potential.  I would take the same strategy for the bullpen:  two relievers on expiring contracts, preferably Robertson and one more.  I would change my approach IF Montas, Castillo, etc. were available at a reasonable cost, but I doubt that will happen.  Deadline deals are always costly.  I would not trade for a reliever with multi years of control as I don't think relievers are a good investment.  As for who I would give up in this scenario, I would not listen on Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, etc., but we should be able to add players on expiring contracts without touching them.  Rodon and Robertson would be somewhat costly, but I think three players on expiring contracts shouldn't require us to give up our A plus prospects.  I would fix next year's rotation and bullpen in the offseason when I see how all the injuries--Alcala, Maeda, WInder, Paddack, Ober, Stashak, Canterino, etc.-- play out and the cost of adding players is more reasonable.  I would look for a good defensive catcher that costs very little to back up Sanchez.  

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm confused. You ARE advocating standing pat? Or you aren't?

 

Please educate us mere "fans."

 

You assume.  I just made several posts regarding the 40 man roster crunch and advocated they trade some of those prospects already on are that will need to be added.  I have also stated directly more than once I would upgrade the BP.  My objection is with those who would trade Kirilloff / Miranda or Winder. 

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You seem to be suggesting the twins trade away players that will / should be important for the next several years in order to improve a "incredibly flawed" team for the short-term.  I guess that's fine for a fan to be obsessed with the right now.  If you are a GM / PBO, it's a good way to lose your job and also make sure you never get another one at the same level.

I'm suggesting this team desperately needs established major league pitching for this season and beyond. You need to give in order to receive; only parting with potential 40 man casualties and clinging to depreciating assets isn't the remedy. They decided to cross their fingers and hope this year, that can't be the approach again, especially with what's going on with the pitching prospects. Failing to recognize and/or capitalize on opportunities is another great way to show yourself out.

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm suggesting this team desperately needs established major league pitching for this season and beyond. You need to give in order to receive; only parting with potential 40 man casualties and clinging to depreciating assets isn't the remedy. They decided to cross their fingers and hope this year, that can't be the approach again, especially with what's going on with the pitching prospects. Failing to recognize and/or capitalize on opportunities is another great way to show yourself out.

I don't agree they relied on HOPE this year.

Ryan and Ober were likely to be good. They traded for a legit starter. Archer had great stuff last year, but they did roll the dice on his health. That left the five spot with Bundy, Winder, Dobnak, Paddock (dice roll on health), Smeltzer. Outside a handful of teams, most don't have 5 legit starters. Sure, the top 3 weren't GREAT, but they are all number 2/3 types. Given there are about 15 number 1s (IMO), that's not bad. I really think people sell the reality of pitching short. They also could HOPE (yup) on Maeda being healthy this year, but I always thought he'd be a RP this year if healthy.

Yes, I'd rather have another very good starter like Castillo, and for the right price I'd trade for him (or similar), but I think people are very unrealistic about the starting pitching in MN compared to other MLB teams (rather than the past).

edit to add: MN is league median in starting pitching this year. That's not great, but given that they literally built this staff in one year (other than Ober), it's pretty impressive. The minors were completely barren of legit starters outside Berrios when this FO took over. The backsliding of prospects this year is a real bummer, as is Winder's and Ober's health. I'm hopeful that 1-2 guys will step up early next year, so I do agree they need one more legit starter.

[KirbyDome89]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't agree they relied on HOPE this year.

Ryan and Ober were likely to be good. They traded for a legit starter. Archer had great stuff last year, but they did roll the dice on his health. That left the five spot with Bundy, Winder, Dobnak, Paddock (dice roll on health), Smeltzer. Outside a handful of teams, most don't have 5 legit starters. Sure, the top 3 weren't GREAT, but they are all number 2/3 types. Given there are about 15 number 1s (IMO), that's not bad. I really think people sell the reality of pitching short.

Yes, I'd rather have another very good starter like Castillo, and for the right price I'd trade for him (or similar), but I think people are very unrealistic about the starting pitching in MN compared to other MLB teams (rather than the past).

The bargain bin SP signings (Archer and Bundy) haven't worked out. Pagan and Paddack were rebound candidates; Pagan hasn't and we know the Paddack story. I don't view Ober as a 2/3 at all, regardless, he's a near lock to miss time with injuries. Did they expect 150ish innings from him? The rest of that pen...woof. Staff construction was shaky from the jump. Then there's the pipeline, i.e. the reinforcements that were supposed to be pushing some of the projects aside. That's been a disaster. 

Hope, misplaced confidence, oversight, call it what you want, the reality is they gambled on 3/5 of the rotation + a contingency plan revolving around prospects, and neither have really shown up. Lucky for them they play in the AL Central because there's a decent chance they'd be selling if they were in any other division. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The bargain bin SP signings (Archer and Bundy) haven't worked out. Pagan and Paddack were rebound candidates; Pagan hasn't and we know the Paddack story. I don't view Ober as a 2/3 at all, regardless, he's a near lock to miss time with injuries. Did they expect 150ish innings from him? The rest of that pen...woof. Staff construction was shaky from the jump. Then there's the pipeline, i.e. the reinforcements that were supposed to be pushing some of the projects aside. That's been a disaster. 

Hope, misplaced confidence, oversight, call it what you want, the reality is they gambled on 3/5 of the rotation + a contingency plan revolving around prospects, and neither have really shown up. Lucky for them they play in the AL Central because there's a decent chance they'd be selling if they were in any other division. 

I don't expect 150 innings from hardly any MLB starters anymore. 55 pitchers did that last year in all of MLB. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't expect 150 innings from hardly any MLB starters anymore. 55 pitchers did that last year in all of MLB. 

Less than 100 pitched 120 innings last year.

[Greglw3]

On 7/28/2022 at 6:52 PM, Mike Sixel said:

You might want to check his stats....

He currently has 80 IP with 75 Hits, just 22 BB and 64 K, moreover he has a 3.83 ERA.

And he’s trending upward as he gets further and further from Tommy John.

In June and July combined, he has a 3.63 ERA in 39 IP. He’d make a great 4th starter for us. Lopez, Ryan, Gray, Syndergaard with an average ERA of about 3.30. Last, he’s gone 7 or more innings 4 times this season and he pitched 8 innings on another occasion. Bullpen preventer.

On 7/28/2022 at 6:52 PM, Mike Sixel said:

You might want to check his stats....

 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't expect 150 innings from hardly any MLB starters anymore. 55 pitchers did that last year in all of MLB. 

I guess we'll just ignore the fact he's frequently unavailable, i.e. the point being made. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I guess we'll just ignore the fact he's frequently unavailable, i.e. the point being made. 

That fence moved fast. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That fence moved fast. 

Did it? 

"I don't view Ober as a 2/3 at all, regardless, he's a near lock to miss time with injuries."

This year will his third time in four professional seasons he'll finish with an innings total in the 70s or lower. That's part time even by today's standard but let's argue semantics. 

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't expect 150 innings from hardly any MLB starters anymore. 55 pitchers did that last year in all of MLB. 

I'll take your word for it.

The nerds are ruining baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Did it? 

"I don't view Ober as a 2/3 at all, regardless, he's a near lock to miss time with injuries."

This year will his third time in four professional seasons he'll finish with an innings total in the 70s or lower. That's part time even by today's standard but let's argue semantics. 

Didn't you ask me about 150 innings? I must have misunderstood, 

[KirbyDome89]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Didn't you ask me about 150 innings? I must have misunderstood, 

A high end number to illustrate his lack of iron man status.