Is It Too Early To Start Dreaming About 2023?

[chpettit19]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I think Vegas will give you better odds that the Twins win the AL Central this year than you would get for 2023. Cleveland and Chicago will be much better as will KC and Detroit. I'm not looking to 2023 until after the season.

Serious question...why do we think Chicago is going to be significantly better in 2023?

There's no way anyone thinks Cueto is going to repeat his performance this year again. Lance Lynn isn't exactly young so I'm not sure we should expect a bounce back from him. Probably reasonable to expect Giolito gets back to being a 3.50-4 ERA guy. Do we think Cease is a 2 ERA guy or his previous 4 ERA? I'd bet most likely he's a 3.5-4 guy like Giolito. Kopech likely right in that range, too. Don't think there should be any real expectations for Crochet to come back and light the world on fire. Especially not in the rotation. They don't have any top arms ready to take over. So they have 3 guys who are likely 3.5-4 ERA guys, but don't the Twins have that in Gray, Mahle, and Ryan/Maeda/Winder/pick 1 guy?

Hendricks is starting to show cracks and isn't getting any younger. Maybe Crochet rejoins the pen to team with Bummer as big time lefties? Has Lopez found himself in the pen? Looks like he might have so if he's added to Graveman they may have a pretty solid pen. I'd give them the advantage there over the Twins.

I don't think we should expect Jimenez to be any healthier than Buxton. Both seem to be guys who will hit the IL every year. Grandal doesn't appear to be Grandal anymore. Abreu isn't getting younger, but will likely be a solid BA guy even if his power never comes back. Tim Anderson will likely still hit .300, but boot or throw away so many balls that he negates much of his offense. I think the safe bet is that Moncada isn't going to reach the All Star status many had him pegged for. Robert looks like the real deal in the box, but makes a bunch of weird boneheaded plays like some of our favorite Twins do. Andrew Vaughn looks to be finding his groove, but is a negative if made to play the OF. I don't see their defense getting significantly better, and I don't see the juggernaut offense that is significantly better than the Twins.

Overall I say the rotations match up pretty closely, Sox get an edge in the pen, offenses are pretty even, and Twins get slight edge on defense (depending who they have at SS and how many games Buck can play in CF). I don't see the massive jump for the Sox. Maybe La Russa is holding them back as much as some think Rocco is holding the Twins back? I just don't see them being "much better."

Cleveland is a wildcard as who knows what all the rookies look like in year 2. Could be a huge jump, or a bunch of Badoo style regression. And I'll have to see KC and Detroit actually perform significantly better before I believe that. Neither of those pitching staffs give me any reason to be scared of them. And neither do the offenses.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, RickOShea said:

One idea:  It's not so much about the pitcher as it is about the way that pitcher is used.  One clear exception, though, is Pagan.  I don't see anywhere on the staff where he would be effective.  He's lucky to be a MLB pitcher, in my opinion.

I think it could be both but I put more weight on it being the pitcher. We don’t have a good BP. Period. I don’t think usage makes it better or worse

[SpicyGarvSauce]

No.