Is It Too Early To Start Dreaming About 2023?

[DocBauer]

No, it's not too early to look towards 2023. I do it often, and have been since July, way before our recent fade. If you're just giving up on 2022, then it's too early. There is still a realistic chance they can pick it up and make a run at the ALC. And I'm still focused on that. But there's nothing wrong with still looking forward for fun and conversation and projection.

Three major questions that make it really tough to project 2023:

1] Does Correa return? If he's back, you are expecting/hoping he returns to his previous offensive ability. With him, the Twins can still afford to add payroll, and they need to, without jumping to some crazy high mark. (Buxton gets a bump, as will a couple others, but nothing to truly handcuff finances, and there are others coming off the payroll). If Correa is gone, the Twins have a TON of money to work with. While I've become a fan and really like Correa, I have to wonder...based on production this season...are the Twins better off without him and spending the money elsewhere? It's not that he isn't good/great and might not reach great heights again in 2023, but I'm talking about replacement of production from 2022.

2] Health. Can the Twins really and truly feel good about a return to health of Larnach and Kirilloff. Those two greatly influence any sort of roster construction for 2023. And that's a real issue because if in serious doubt, your 2023 plans have to include another bat. 

3] Does Duran remain in the pen or move back to the rotation? We've heard whispers he wants to start. The potential there is intriguing to be sure! But are the whispers true? Maybe he's loving being a BP fireman. Maybe he sticks there. Where he's at changes the complexion of the roster.

Nothing about Larnach's injuries yell chronic. And for now, I'm going to make the assumption that AK's new procedure will actually alleviate his wrist problem. Optimistic? Yes. But in theory, what they've done makes sense.

NEEDS:

1] One more good to great SP. Good is good, great is better. I have my eye on Rodon as he's been tied to the Twins in serious discussions twice now. He has some risk. But if you want to get better as a mid market team, you have to take some risks once in a while. Correa gone makes this possibly happen. With Correa, the Twins might have to look a notch lower. But better than Bundy and Archer is a must to take the next step, regardless of young arms like Ober and Winder. History clearly shows SOMETHING will happen.

2] One good, solid bullpen arm. If you end up moving Duran back to the rotation, then this becomes a higher and more expensive priority. A re-sign of Fulmer might just satisfy this need if Duran sticks in the pen. 

3] Another quality catcher is a must. Whether you like him or not, and I'm not going to debate worth, Jeffers is liked by the coaches, the FO, and the pitching staff, which is most important. But he needs a solid partner. Sanchez is just not the answer. Nor is Leon. I'd LOVE to have Leon back on a milb deal as the 3rd catcher. I like his game calling enough and defense I'd have to consider him on the 40 man. But I don't think that will be necessary. I'd love a LH hitting option to pair with Jeffers, but it doesn't matter as much as just a good staff handler with solid defense and a bat that isn't embarrassing. 

POSSIBLES:

1] A LH BP arm to fill a middle spot. Thielbar will be back, and he should be. Do the Twins trust in Moran, Sisk, and even Smeltzer to fill a role? I'd take Coulombe back in a heartbeat on a milb deal for "break glass", but it would be nice to have a 2nd LH arm in the pen from SOMEWHERE.

2] Garlick has been a surprising contributor last year and this year against LHP. But how about looking for a better version of him for a few $M who is perhaps better defensively? Not a knock on Garlick at all, but why not aim higher?

3] Do we need a fill-in option at SS until Lewis is ready? Do we just trust Palacios in a temp role? Maybe an inexpensive signing to compete with Palacios?

4] If there are any serious doubts about Kirilloff, the Twins are going to have to consider another 1B/DH to fill out the lineup and provide production. Arraez and Miranda play there, but no AK, another bat could be huge even if it's not an All Star slugger. 

C]  Jeffers/FA

1B] Kirilloff

2B] Polanco

SS] Palacios or filler until Lewis is ready.

3B] Miranda 

LF] Larnach 

CF] Buxton

RF] Kepler

DH] Arraez (plays 2B and 1B, just listing him here)

BENCH] Urshela, Gordon, Celestino, Garlick or FA

Yes, that's 14 when the roster only has room for 13. But I'm allowing 1 extra spot due to injury and roster manipulation at this point.

ROTATION:

Mahle

Ryan

Gray

Maeda

FA

DEPTH: Paddack mid year, Winder, Ober, Balazovic, SWR, Varland, Sands, and possibly Dobnak, Smeltzer and maybe even Sanchez.

BULLPEN:

Duran

Lopez

Fulmer or FA

Thielbar

Jax

Alcala

TBD (all SP depth along with Stashak, Moran, Sisk, Cotton, Megill, etc, and possible solid veteran FA)

TBD

Lineup will vary, but Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, Miranda, AK, and Larnach make up the top 6 most days. Kepler, catcher of the day and SS make up the bottom third until Lewis back. A healthy Lewis is probably slated in the top 3 in the order once back.

The Twins can avoid being absolutely snakebit with for a 3rd year in a row with injuries, I'd go to war in 2023 with that team and actually expect to make some noise.

 

 

 

 

[RpR]

Get rid of Jeffers, both Sanchez and Leon when they were Jeffers age were far, far better catchers than he is now, and at this point in their careers are still better catchers than he is.

[Rosterman]

I'm curious to see how the Twins budget will playout for 2023. Total attendance hasn't been spectacular, averaging in the low 20s. You would think the Twins would be doing much better, especially with all the $5 seats available NOW and into September.

[Brandon]

The Twins have plenty of budget to afford Correa on a long term deal.  I am sure the AAV on a deal now is closer to 25 million then 35 million.  Correa may even not opt out to get 35 million and try to build back more value.  Will be fun to watch unfold.  Overall there is not much to do on the roster besides health, development, a bullpen arm, maybe a top end starter, finding a good prospect we can get in a Kepler trade.  (I only except this if we keep Correa).  And most importantly a 2nd C to platoon with Jeffers.  
If we don’t sign or get a top end starter no worries we have Varland and Richardson-Woods who deserve a shot and holdovers Dobnak, Smeltzer, Ober and Winder and mid season Paddack.  Balazovich will hopefully rework his way back into the equation.  
 

in short the offseason primarily boils down to SS, 2nd C, and a RP, and possible SP.  that’s it.  

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I'm curious to see how the Twins budget will playout for 2023. Total attendance hasn't been spectacular, averaging in the low 20s. You would think the Twins would be doing much better, especially with all the $5 seats available NOW and into September.

I don’t think it will hurt that much.  There is lots of money from tv and internet broadcasting.  

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Overall there is not much to do on the roster besides health, development, a bullpen arm, maybe a top end starter,

Yeah, I'd say some legitimate attention to the BP this off season would be warranted

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Yeah, I'd say some legitimate attention to the BP this off season would be warranted

If they can come to an extension with Fullmer, a back end of Duran-Lopez-Jax-Fullmer with another added piece is starting to look pretty dang nice. And that's before even thinking about Alcala

[jimbo92107]

When I think of all the talented young players either coming off the IL or emerging from the minors, it looks like the Twins are in for a tsunami of talent in 2023. In no particular order: Winder, Sands, Maeda, Paddack, Buxton, Jeffers, Larnach, Lewis, Balazovic, Canterino, Wallner, Martin, Varland, Alcala, Richardson... and of course Brooks Lee might just bash his own path through the minors faster than expected. 

2022 looked like the Twins were loaded, until they weren't. 2023 looks like a big overload. 

[Number3]

10 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

When I think of all the talented young players either coming off the IL or emerging from the minors, it looks like the Twins are in for a tsunami of talent in 2023. In no particular order: Winder, Sands, Maeda, Paddack, Buxton, Jeffers, Larnach, Lewis, Balazovic, Canterino, Wallner, Martin, Varland, Alcala, Richardson... and of course Brooks Lee might just bash his own path through the minors faster than expected. 

2022 looked like the Twins were loaded, until they weren't. 2023 looks like a big overload. 

Don't know why Buxton and Lewis are on your list but a list doesn't win games and the Twins are still the Twins. Buxton will never be able to impact a full season and Lewis has become nothing but the draft pick that wasn't.  In the mean time, the sweep of SF got them off of the edge of the cliff once again in 2022 so if they can get 2 of 3 from the Red Sox, next month is still in play for this year.

[twinfan]

The thing is- would it be a dream or a nightmare? Can we possibly keep Correa? Can we get some better pitching? Can we stay healthy- ever?

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Yeah, I'd say some legitimate attention to the BP this off season would be warranted

That clearly goes against the front office's philosophy. They haven't valued good relievers, like, ever.

[DJL44]

On 7/27/2022 at 5:09 PM, terrydactyls said:

3.  A solid catcher who can hit .250.

So, an All-Star catcher. Solid defensive catchers that can hit above .250 are borderline All-Stars. The A's might trade Sean Murphy (batting .254) but it won't be cheap. All-Star starter Willson Contreras is hitting .242 and he's the only free agent that resembles what you want.

[Major League Ready]

On 8/27/2022 at 11:13 AM, RpR said:

The Pie-in-the-Sky wishful thinking that so many here have for rookies  does not carry over well into the real world.

Do you pay any attention to the rest of the league.  The Braves are getting big contributions from 3 rookies and there are numerous rookies around the league doing well.  The Astros have also replaced / injected a number of players the last couple of years.  Mid market teams have to develop and insert cheap young talent to have any chance so your constant harping against bringing on new players is brutally flawed logic.

We heard the same crap about the need to keep Donaldson.  Miranda has outperformed him badly since he was brought back up at the end of May.   OPS of 843 vs 656 and of course and extra $20M to spend on other needs.  The team is in a far better position now and especially going forward.  Even the Dodgers with their mammoth budget would not be nearly as good if it were not for all the great players they developed internally.

[strumdatjag]

Correa has to think he can produce better than this year’s production.  And that will lead him NOT to opt out.  He’ll play for $35 million and look to earn more in FA after next year if his production improves.  He may be happy to collect v that amount for all three years. 

[DocBauer]

On 8/28/2022 at 1:55 PM, Brandon said:

The Twins have plenty of budget to afford Correa on a long term deal.  I am sure the AAV on a deal now is closer to 25 million then 35 million.  Correa may even not opt out to get 35 million and try to build back more value.  Will be fun to watch unfold.  Overall there is not much to do on the roster besides health, development, a bullpen arm, maybe a top end starter, finding a good prospect we can get in a Kepler trade.  (I only except this if we keep Correa).  And most importantly a 2nd C to platoon with Jeffers.  
If we don’t sign or get a top end starter no worries we have Varland and Richardson-Woods who deserve a shot and holdovers Dobnak, Smeltzer, Ober and Winder and mid season Paddack.  Balazovich will hopefully rework his way back into the equation.  
 

in short the offseason primarily boils down to SS, 2nd C, and a RP, and possible SP.  that’s it.  

I agree with a lot of what you said.  And yes, the Twins can afford to keep Correa, though I'm not sure about the $25M.

Now, I've become a big fan of Correa, despite his limited production here in 2022. And I have little doubt his bat will rebound in 2023, wherever he's at. But based solely on his production this year, my question...to myself if nobody else...is are the Twins better of spending his $35M around the ENTIRETY of the team and fill in the best as possible at SS, especially with hopes of Lewis back in June? Not saying I have the answer, but it sure seems plausible that his moving on might lead to overall roster improvement. 

While we generally agree on needs, I'm still wondering about spending some real $ on a RH OF to potentially replace Garlick as a better overall player.

[DocBauer]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

That clearly goes against the front office's philosophy. They haven't valued good relievers, like, ever.

Your not wrong.

Their general philosophy has been, as a mid-market team, if we have to cut payroll somewhere, the pen is the place to do so. In theory, that's legitimate. You can have a couple great arms, and find others between FA and prospects with good stuff who can transition, or get their feet wet in the pen before moving back to the rotation as the Cardinals are reputed as doing. And to be fair, they've had a few solid signings and trade arms and transition arms. 

I made a comment that the FO has been learning, to some degree, on the fly. And I think that's fair. When you're put in charge, you have a plan. When that plan doesn't work, you have to adjust. Duran and Jax are examples this year. The trade for Lopez, who they have control of, and Fulmer, who might be an easy re-sign, are examples, IMO. Injuries have really deprived them of options. Winder is a top SP prospect, but found success as a middle/long man  who slid in to the rotation when needed. They've done that with Smeltzer as well, in similar fashion. Not so sure Sands wouldn't already be in a mid spot if not due to injury. 

Now, I have no answer as to why Pagan is still around other than injuries and inconsistent performances from some young arms and left as a sort of "last man standing" and just hoping for the best, but I think the FO is starting to realize that there is a difference between cheap and hopeful vs frugal and smart in the pen. Learning, growing, and changing/adapting is good. Stubbornly holding to precepts gets you nowhere.

IMO, the FO seems to be adapting. I don't believe they will spend big on the pen in 2023, unless Duran is sudden placed in the rotation, but I don't believe they will ignore it so horribly as they did to begin 2022. 

[DocBauer]

On 8/28/2022 at 10:04 PM, jimbo92107 said:

When I think of all the talented young players either coming off the IL or emerging from the minors, it looks like the Twins are in for a tsunami of talent in 2023. In no particular order: Winder, Sands, Maeda, Paddack, Buxton, Jeffers, Larnach, Lewis, Balazovic, Canterino, Wallner, Martin, Varland, Alcala, Richardson... and of course Brooks Lee might just bash his own path through the minors faster than expected. 

2022 looked like the Twins were loaded, until they weren't. 2023 looks like a big overload. 

I like your optimism Jimbo, I really do. 

Not sure I agree with Maeda and Buxton being "young talent", even though Buck isn't exactly OLD. And I think you're premature in regard to Martin and Lee. One is trying to figure himself out still and one is just too young and inexperienced yet to expect anything in 2023. You might have included Julien as a possible, but Canterino is out until 2024, barring a miraculous recovery.

But you're not wrong with the other names mentioned. HEALTH is a HUGE part of 2023, and not just Buck. A healthy Maeda is big. A healthy Jeffers makes a difference, even though some don't like him. How much better is the offense with a healthy Larnach and Kirilloff? How much better with the talented and dynamic Lewis if he gets 100% by June? Winder healthy, Sands healthy...maybe in the pen...and Balazovic, Varland, SWR, and a few others pitching to their ability in the rotation and the pen.

You're not wrong to be optimistic. And while the Twins absolutely need to add a few pieces, the nucleus is there. But I'm not so sure HEALTH isn't the #1 thing the Twins need for 2023. Aren't we due????

[bean5302]

I can see it now... 30 years in the future, the front office will still be "learning on the job."

[SwainZag]

59 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I can see it now... 30 years in the future, the front office will still be "learning on the job."

In a sport that's always changing your regime should always be learning and adjusting.  Failing to do that is how you end up in a position like the Twins were in at the end of the Ryan regime.  

[Number3]

2022 is still in play so just beat the Red Sox tonight. I really thought they were done after the 6 game losing streak but here they are 1.5 games out with the other Sox up next.

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

In a sport that's always changing your regime should always be learning and adjusting.  Failing to do that is how you end up in a position like the Twins were in at the end of the Ryan regime.  

While true, I was really addressing the apologist comments for Falvey and Levine. They're well past the grace period for being able to use the excuse of learning on the job or installing the program, etc. It's time for them to sink or swim. This is their team, their draft picks or at the very least, their development system, their trades, their free agent signings. 

[Number3]

Win tonight and the dream for 2023 may be to improve on the playoff run in 2022. Rooting for the Os tonight as well. Also get to practice against the Yankees for 4 games in Sep as well as the 8 games against the Guardians. Those 12 games may decide playoffs or no playoffs.

[Squirrel]

32 minutes ago, Number3 said:

Those 12 games may decide playoffs or no playoffs.

I'd change that to 'will' not 'may' ... most likely 

[stringer bell]

(2022) Season is over IMHO. The Twins just don't have enough quality in their healthy bodies to make up the gap between themselves and Cleveland. There is enough talent to be in the mix next year, but so many will be coming back from injury. 

[tony&rodney]

I think Vegas will give you better odds that the Twins win the AL Central this year than you would get for 2023. Cleveland and Chicago will be much better as will KC and Detroit. I'm not looking to 2023 until after the season.

[Irishman]

On 8/29/2022 at 9:22 AM, twinfan said:

The thing is- would it be a dream or a nightmare? Can we possibly keep Correa? Can we get some better pitching? Can we stay healthy- ever?

Always SOS (Same Old Stuff).   Nothing changes!   Twins is a joke. They are finished.  Fans don’t deserve this.

[Number3]

One thing for sure, it would probably be another dream turned night mare. The team just doesn't seem to be able to compete any more and now they are saddled with a $35mil per year short stop. At least Gardenhire would be happy; they aren't in second place.

[Squirrel]

42 minutes ago, Number3 said:

One thing for sure, it would probably be another dream turned night mare. The team just doesn't seem to be able to compete any more and now they are saddled with a $35mil per year short stop. At least Gardenhire would be happy; they aren't in second place.

They aren’t saddled. They can afford his contract. But Correa will be opting out. He wants and deserves a long-term contract and will look for a winning team

[Craig Arko]

Taylor Rogers is a free agent at the end of the season, yes?

[RickOShea]

22 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Taylor Rogers is a free agent at the end of the season, yes?

One idea:  It's not so much about the pitcher as it is about the way that pitcher is used.  One clear exception, though, is Pagan.  I don't see anywhere on the staff where he would be effective.  He's lucky to be a MLB pitcher, in my opinion.