Trade Rumor: Twins more Interested in Reds' Mahle than Castillo

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yes, and we celebrated wildly because Joe Ryan for a half season of Nelson Cruz was clearly a fleecing we were all happy with.

Now you're backtracking on your original claim the Twins benefitted by waiting to trade Cruz.

There's no reason to believe the Reds would turn down a deal today that they'll accept Tuesday.

[nicksaviking]

25 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Now you're backtracking on your original claim the Twins benefitted by waiting to trade Cruz.

There's no reason to believe the Reds would turn down a deal today that they'll accept Tuesday.

No, it's exactly what I said. The Rays had to OVERPAY for Cruz. The Twins almost certainly would have to do the same if they wanted a guy early this year.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

People don't pay enough attention to just how much Great American hurts flyball pitchers. I don't know if Mahle is top 30 but he's WAY better than his ERA indicates.

His xFIP is 4.12. His ERA is 4.48, right in line with the career spreads. He's not way better. Mahle has a very good K rate, but his walk rate is pretty poor.

Home and away ERA/FIP splits are pretty extreme 5.06/3.74 for ERA and 5.11/3.52 for FIP, but his xFIP away doesn't show the same advantage as it still sits in a back end rotation arm slot at 4.16 due largely to the fact he puts way, way more balls into play away from home. Mahle is also the poster child for never allow 3rd TTO.

He may be better than 5th rotation arm, but he's not somebody I would expect to be solid in the middle or better spot in a playoff rotation.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

52 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Twins got Ryan for Cruz on July 22nd, how many days before the trade deadline?  Not only can it be done with the right offer, it has been recently.  We simply need to make the right offer.  

Personally, I think we are waiting for the BIG offers to be snapped up so we can pick up the left overs at the deadline without having to give up much.  Stay tuned.  

This deadline was stunted a bit due to the Qualifying Offer being up in the air and the expanded playoffs. Notice that until the past day or so, no one of note has been traded anywhere in MLB. There was a lot of money and value tied up in that International Draft vs Qualifying Offer negotiation that only ended... two days ago? I think two days ago.

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

His xFIP is 4.12. His ERA is 4.48, right in line with the career spreads. He's not way better. Mahle has a very good K rate, but his walk rate is pretty poor.

Home and away ERA/FIP splits are pretty extreme 5.06/3.74 for ERA and 5.11/3.52 for FIP, but his xFIP away doesn't show the same advantage as it still sits in a back end rotation arm slot at 4.16 due largely to the fact he puts way, way more balls into play away from home. Mahle is also the poster child for never allow 3rd TTO.

He may be better than 5th rotation arm, but he's not somebody I would expect to be solid in the middle or better spot in a playoff rotation.

All very true but I'm not much of a believer in xFIP. I think it has serious flaws, like the fact that some pitchers can induce weak flyballs better than others. Normalizing to league average underscores that ability; take for example old friend Jake Odorizzi, whose ERA outperforms his xFIP every year, some times as much as a full run. For his career - 1,200 innings pitched so well past the point of ERA normalizing - his career xFIP is half a run higher than his career ERA. That's no longer a fluctuation, that's a data error.

I think xFIP is too cute by half. Give me regular ol' FIP every day.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

All very true but I'm not much of a believer in xFIP. I think it has serious flaws, like the fact that some pitchers can induce weak flyballs better than others. Normalizing to league average underscores that ability; take for example old friend Jake Odorizzi, whose ERA outperforms his xFIP every year, some times as much as a full run. For his career - 1,200 innings pitched so well past the point of ERA normalizing - his career xFIP is half a run higher than his career ERA. That's no longer a fluctuation, that's a data error.

I think xFIP is too cute by half. Give me regular ol' FIP every day.

I haven't seen a lot of evidence of any pitchers being able to depress the HR/FB rate long term and analysis shows xFIP is a significantly better tool at forecasting performance than FIP. All the metrics are flawed to a degree. Maybe there's a pitcher where xFIP isn't as accurate as FIP, but there's plenty of red flag on deciding Mahle will be super effective with the Twins. Especially if the playoffs go through a homer prone ball park.

[twinfan]

Archer in the rotation? I've said before that he should be first out of the bullpen. He could give us 2-4 solid middle relief innings. As far as Mahle, he is probably good but I'd make darn sure he is healthy before giving up stuff to get him.

[Parfigliano]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

And that's what I've been reading for some time now, solid stuff, room for growth/improvement, and might do better just getting out of Cincinnati and their ballpark.

Yup.  Him out of that tiny park

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd be thrilled if they did. Mahle has been my trade target most of the summer.

Mine too. 

[Battle ur tail off]

I'd take this guy if it means they are going to be able to hold onto Miranda, Kiriloff and Lewis. Get him, then find 2 relievers on expiring contracts. Let's go. Not enough to win it all, but at least enough to stay competitive the rest of the year. 

That said, if they are hellbent on adding the elite guys, then only 1 of those 3 I named can leave. I think it would be a mistake to move more than 1 of them. 

[mikelink45]

If we want the world series we get Castillo. 

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd be more than happy to get a fair price for Mahle now, but wouldn't the Twins front office as well? I mean they're not waiting around just to mess with the fans; they know the situation the team is in just as we do. Neither of the Reds pitchers need to be traded. They're still under control next year and can be traded in the offseason.

Why are we assuming the FO is currently willing to pay market rate and not hunting value? The Reds could certainly be overplaying their hand, but this FO isn't exactly aggressive when it comes to paying for arms. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

14 hours ago, CRF said:

Get both of them!

Nice thought, but realistically is probably nothing more than wishful thinking. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If we want the world series we get Castillo. 

Problem is we'd likely need a lot more than that to have anything resembling a decent shot at the World Series this season. 

[gil4]

10 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd be more than happy to get a fair price for Mahle now, but wouldn't the Twins front office as well? I mean they're not waiting around just to mess with the fans; 

For some reason I'm picturing a Far Side-like comic with Falvey and Levine reading TD and doing just that - waiting just to mess with us and starting various rumors to make us crazy.  (Correa for Soto sounds like their handiwork.)  

[DJL44]

Mahle has made $4M less in arbitration than Castillo. That (and his bloated 2022 ERA) sets him up for a smaller arbitration award next season. I think Mahle might be open to a contract extension if the Twins obtain him.

[Irishman]

I am not interested in Mahle.  His stats are not that impressive. His ERA is over 4.0. 

I want Alexis Diaz.   I hope Twins would get him.

[jorgenswest]

I guess it depends what the Reds are looking for in return. If they are looking for the best pitching prospect offered the Twins don’t have anything to offer today that will convince them to make that deal. The Twins don’t have top end pitching prospects. The Reds might get to the deadline without that offer of someone better than Woods-Richardson and turn to the Twins who can add some good bats.

[Roaddog]

I like Mahle. I also like Lopez from Miami

[Rosterman]

Seattle got him. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/mariners-finalizing-acquisition-of-luis-castillo-from-reds.html

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Seattle got him. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/mariners-finalizing-acquisition-of-luis-castillo-from-reds.html

 

Your link spells Mahle wrong.

[CRF]

Castillo is gone. If the Twins want ANY of these pitchers, they're going to have to up the ante to get them. I wouldn't bet on them doing that. 

[Doctor Gast]

Castillo just was traded for an exuberant price hope it does set the tempo thru out the deadline

[ashbury]

I have a feeling that the headline* someone at MLBTR chose, Twins Among Most Aggressive Buyers On Pitching Market, is going to look pretty dumb in the rear-view mirror in a few more days.

 

* The article itself is titled something else, but the blurb placed in the team-digest for all three AL Central contenders had this form.

[Brandon]

On 7/28/2022 at 8:16 PM, gil4 said:

For some reason I'm picturing a Far Side-like comic with Falvey and Levine reading TD and doing just that - waiting just to mess with us and starting various rumors to make us crazy.  (Correa for Soto sounds like their handiwork.)  

To make this believable they throw in a third team is in on this deal.  

[Brandon]

On 7/29/2022 at 8:08 AM, jorgenswest said:

I guess it depends what the Reds are looking for in return. If they are looking for the best pitching prospect offered the Twins don’t have anything to offer today that will convince them to make that deal. The Twins don’t have top end pitching prospects. The Reds might get to the deadline without that offer of someone better than Woods-Richardson and turn to the Twins who can add some good bats.

I think the Reds want several low cost players who can make it to the show.  With lots of low cost players you can supplement with a few low cost free agents and a medium and high cost one and be competitive kinda like the Twins.  And when you sign that one big free agent it says your all in without being all in.

The Reds have Hunter and Petty, they just got 2 IFs I don’t know what else the Reds have but if they have any more pitching prospects with another hitter and they won’t be far away from being competitive if they play their cards right.

 I think a package of Steer, Varland Moran is a good one for a starter either Mahle or we pivot to Miami and go with Larnarch and Steer with a minor leaguer or two for Pablo.

[KirbyHawk75]

I would be happy with Mahle and 2 relievers.  I just don't want to give up Miranda or Kirlioff as they are our future along with Lewis (IF he recovers and stays healthy).  The only prospect I wouldn't trade is Lee.  But Dougie keeps saying it and he is correct.  Other teams can offer more.  Our farm is not really good right now.  You are getting nothing for Martin or JB.  

[KirbyHawk75]

The Mariners had to overspend just like the Twolves had to overspend for Gobert.  Neither team has been relevant in 2 decades.  

 

BTW the Twins could not compete with what the Mariners offered unless they traded Miranda, Kirlioff,  and two pitching prospects.  And I would never do that for a guy who will be here for a year and a half.

[DocBauer]

I don't believe the Twins don't have some good pitching prospects, in a vacuum. I think they do. The problem is some are very new and at lower levels, and with the exception of Varland, almost everyone has been battling SOMETHING, whether injury or control, or returning from injury. Pretty hard to be the trading team and trade for someone having a rough season, no matter any potential. 

A couple BP additions, rental or otherwise, shouldn't deplete the system. And while I don't necessarily believe the Castillo trade sets a bar, it's going to be hard to acquire what is perceived as a true top of the rotation piece. A Rodon trade might just work, IF the Giants are in sell mode. And to me, that sort of brings us back to Mahle, who I like. He's only 27yo, in his 3rd consecutive SOLID season, and has room to develop, potentially, away from Cincinnati. 

I'm still wondering though, if the Marlins aren't the best option. They seem to need offense. And they have a number of arms. And while I don't like to play the "who" game in regard to trades because it's so subjective, I do look at Steer, Wallner, Julien, CES and some other, younger options they may be interested in. Some of whom haven't hit full stride yet, but have talent. And there is enough pitching depth to offer up a couple interesting arms with potential to make the deal work, potentially. Maybe a 2 for 5 or 6 type of deal. And while it might sound crazy on the surface, I wonder about including Sano in the deal as sort of a throw in flier. I mean, think about it from Miami's point of view. He's not yet 30yo, has a career OPS of .800+, can carry a team for stretches, might start a season better playing in warmer weather, and if the Twins ate the remainder of his 2022 and maybe his $3M 2023 buyout, (and they've done similar before), would he make the Marlins bite and push them over on a 6 for 2 kind of deal? I mean, they get him for free to finish the season, audition him, and can re-sign him if they want without having to pay for the buyout. Hell, they might get 5 good prospects and a $7+M potential steal in Sano.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, KirbyHawk75 said:

The only prospect I wouldn't trade is Lee. 

Sound.  League rules don't permit trading draftees until after the World Series.