Trade Rumor: Twins more Interested in Reds' Mahle than Castillo

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Athletic's Dan Hayes mentions briefly that the Twins are more interested in Tyler Mahle than they are Luis Castillo.

Mahle doesn't have the eye-popping stats of Castillo but would be a considerable upgrade to the Twins' rotation, as would Castillo. If the Twins are pursuing Mahle over Castillo, is it due to price, untapped potential, or both?

I still think Montas is a long shot, the A's seem to be really intent on asking top dollar for him. If they haven't already overplayed their hand, I think there's a good chance they'll end up doing so.

View full trade rumor

[Doctor Gast]

Very good assumption. I don't think his mild shoulder problem is anything to worry about.

[twinkies8791]

Would Mahle be a good addition to what we already have?  A little bit, PROBABLY will take over the Central by years end but then be a quick one and done in the playoffs sadly.  For Castillo i would give them willing to give up, Larnach, kepler, garlick, celestino as position players, not all at once but a combination of and no on Miranda or Kiriioff, I would give up any prospect they want that incudes, Martin Balazovic wallner

[h2oface]

If Mahle is on the team he can't break Buxton's hand again. Just like the Twins to go after the 2 tier... or 3rd. The guy that is coming off a shoulder strain IL stint and is pitching to his worst stats since 2019. Mediocre at best. Just what we need. He would fit right in, 

[bunsen82]

Mahle actually has pretty good stuff. Take him out of Cincinnati and he is a top 30 pitcher. Seems undervalued to me.  

[Ryan_K]

His home road splits are interesting. If we could lead with Walner and keep the majors I'd be thrilled 

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Mahle actually has pretty good stuff. Take him out of Cincinnati and he is a top 30 pitcher. Seems undervalued to me.  

And that's what I've been reading for some time now, solid stuff, room for growth/improvement, and might do better just getting out of Cincinnati and their ballpark.

[bean5302]

YAAAASSSSSS, if only we could have 12 mid/back end starters, we'd definitely win the World Series. Mighty good thinkin'

[howeda7]

I'm OK doing what it takes to make the play-offs and win a game. Anything more is a bonus. Let's get over the hump and go from there. 

[Mark G]

I only have two questions:  can he throw 100 pitches without needing TJ surgery 3 days later?  And has he ever pitched a 3rd time through the lineup and lived to pitch another day?  If he is 2 for 2 pay what you have to for him and tell Rocco to pay attention to how it is done.    

[CRF]

Get both of them!

[TwinsDr2021]

Mahle makes more sense because he probably has a better chance of buying into the only face 21/22 guys a start philosophy more then Castillo IMO. This year he is averaging facing just over 23 batters a game, but is been over 100 pitches 10 of the last 12 games. The Twins could tell him they could cut down him facing a few guys a game bringing his pitch count below 100 and he would have better numbers and a better chance of staying healthy.  I think Castillo would tell them to pound sand he is looking for a his first and last big contract at age 31. Just my two cents

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Mahle actually has pretty good stuff. Take him out of Cincinnati and he is a top 30 pitcher. Seems undervalued to me.  

People don't pay enough attention to just how much Great American hurts flyball pitchers. I don't know if Mahle is top 30 but he's WAY better than his ERA indicates.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Qualification for Twins Trade Targets:

Best Years Behind Him

Must Have Nagging Health Issue

Can't Go More Than 4 Innings

Give Up A Lot Of Homeruns And/Or Walks

No Other Team Wants Him

Prefers 6 Days Rest Between Starts

Will Require Two Of Our Top Prospects

Cheap Salary But Huge Buyout Option

Has A Prepaid Reservation At The Old Baseball Players' Rest Home

 

If a trade prospect meets none of those qualifications, get him. Otherwise use your ten-foot pole.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

People don't pay enough attention to just how much Great American hurts flyball pitchers. I don't know if Mahle is top 30 but he's WAY better than his ERA indicates.

Yeah, Mahle's road stats are quite a bit better than Castillo's. I said before that Castillo would be the big splash and may be a big morale boost due to his reputation, but Mahle may be more impactful on the field.

That said, as much as it would hurt, I'd probably include Royce Lewis as a headliner if the Reds were willing to deal both to the Twins. Castillo, Mahle, Gray and Ryan is a rotation I'd feel good about.

[USAFChief]

Any reason Mahle can't start for the Twins Sunday in San Diego?

No?

Then make it so, Falvine.

 

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Any reason Mahle can't start for the Twins Sunday in San Diego?

No?

Then make it so, Falvine.

 

Why would the Reds deal him until they can other teams to commit their best offers though? The other teams aren't going to have any motivation to do the Twins a favor.

I mean, I'm all for it, but it's not on the front office if they can't get something done early.

[USAFChief]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Why would the Reds deal him until they can other teams to commit their best offers though? The other teams aren't going to have any motivation to do the Twins a favor.

I mean, I'm all for it, but it's not on the front office if they can't get something done early.

We're 5 days from the deadline. The Reds know where offers are falling. 

Make an offer that gets it done. Stop dicking around and do something to help a staff that needs help. Pay retail, it'll be OK. Yoi don't need to shop at the dollar store or wait for blue light specials every time.

I don't really want to listen to excuses. Mahle would be a nice addition, at a tough but doable price. 1.3 years of control. 

Pull the damn trigger already.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

We're 5 days from the deadline. The Reds know where offers are falling. 

Make an offer that gets it done. Stop dicking around and do something to help a staff that needs help. Pay retail, it'll be OK. Yoi don't need to shop at the dollar store or wait for blue light specials every time.

I don't really want to listen to excuses.

You don't pay retail now, you pay 50% markup. If the Twins were sellers and didn't hold up the other team, like they did last year with Nelson Cruz, I wouldn't be happy.

And since the Twins probably need TWO starters and TWO relievers, they can't afford to overpay, they need to pay market rate, even if it means waiting a couple extra days.

It's not an excuse, it's the law of the land. 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

You don't pay retail now, you pay 50% markup. If the Twins didn't hold up the other team, like they did last year with Nelson Cruz, I wouldn't be happy.

And since the Twins probably need TWO starters and TWO relievers, they can't afford to overpay, they need to pay market rate, even if it means waiting a couple extra days.

Non concur.

That's how we're going to end up with Michael Pineda. 

Get some things done. Immediately. 

[nicksaviking]

While I don't agree that trade timing is all within the control of the Twins front office, the Twins shortstop heavy draft strategy this year does make me think Royce Lewis may be on the table, and he seems exciting enough to me that other teams may see him as a piece that's too good to wait on. Like Joe Ryan in the Cruz deal last year.

Still, one starting pitcher isn't going to keep Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer out of the rotation, they need two if they want to be serious about this year. 

[USAFChief]

30 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

While I don't agree that trade timing is all within the control of the Twins front office, the Twins shortstop heavy draft strategy this year does make me think Royce Lewis may be on the table, and he seems exciting enough to me that other teams may see him as a piece that's too good to wait on. Like Joe Ryan in the Cruz deal last year.

Still, one starting pitcher isn't going to keep Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer out of the rotation, they need two if they want to be serious about this year. 

I'd settle for Mahle and two backend relievers. That maybe puts Archer in the pen and gives us a massive upgrade every 5th day.

Maybe something like Barnhardt to plug the hole at catcher, although how much of an upgrade that represents isn't clear to me.

But get it done. All should be in place this weekend. Every single game matters at this point. They don't even know who Sunday's starter is, ferpetesakes.

I completely reject the idea there's some reason it could be done Tuesday but not today. Or some massive difference in cost.

Make it so. 

 

[Vanimal46]

48 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

You don't pay retail now, you pay 50% markup. If the Twins were sellers and didn't hold up the other team, like they did last year with Nelson Cruz, I wouldn't be happy.

And since the Twins probably need TWO starters and TWO relievers, they can't afford to overpay, they need to pay market rate, even if it means waiting a couple extra days.

It's not an excuse, it's the law of the land. 

A 50% markup to get him 5 days earlier? Gonna call BS on that. If it was the offseason, sure. The sellers have a pretty good idea where the offers stand today. All they’re hoping for is someone getting desperate to up the offer by Tuesday, which probably won’t happen. 

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

A 50% markup to get him 5 days earlier? Gonna call BS on that. If it was the offseason, sure. The sellers have a pretty good idea where the offers stand today. All they’re hoping for is someone getting desperate to up the offer by Tuesday, which probably won’t happen. 

So why would they trade now if they are hoping someone will get desperate and up the ante?

If the Twins wanted him now, wouldn't they have to pay that ante? Put whatever % on that markup we want, it's still a markup.

[Brock Beauchamp]

24 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

So why would they trade now if they are hoping someone will get desperate and up the ante?

If the Twins wanted him now, wouldn't they have to pay that ante? Put whatever % on that markup we want, it's still a markup.

The Reds would probably trade Mahle now because it depletes the starting pitcher market and that allows them to more aggressively shop Castillo. This strategy would likely pay off if Oakland continues to be stubborn about Montas. It would put the Reds in the driver's seat going into deadline day.

Get a fair price for Mahle now, try to hose someone with Castillo in a few days.

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Reds would probably trade Mahle now because it depletes the starting pitcher market and that allows them to more aggressively shop Castillo. This strategy would likely pay off if Oakland continues to be stubborn about Montas. It would put the Reds in the driver's seat going into deadline day.

Get a fair price for Mahle now, try to hose someone with Castillo in a few days.

I'd be more than happy to get a fair price for Mahle now, but wouldn't the Twins front office as well? I mean they're not waiting around just to mess with the fans; they know the situation the team is in just as we do. Neither of the Reds pitchers need to be traded. They're still under control next year and can be traded in the offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd be more than happy to get a fair price for Mahle now, but wouldn't the Twins front office as well? I mean they're not waiting around just to mess with the fans; they know the situation the team is in just as we do. Neither of the Reds pitchers need to be traded. They're still under control next year and can be traded in the offseason.

Oh, I'm not saying it should have happened already, I'm only saying that I expect the Reds to move one of Castillo/Mahle before the deadline and the other at the deadline (if they're going to trade both).

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Why would the Reds deal him until they can other teams to commit their best offers though? The other teams aren't going to have any motivation to do the Twins a favor.

I mean, I'm all for it, but it's not on the front office if they can't get something done early.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Twins got Ryan for Cruz on July 22nd, how many days before the trade deadline?  Not only can it be done with the right offer, it has been recently.  We simply need to make the right offer.  

Personally, I think we are waiting for the BIG offers to be snapped up so we can pick up the left overs at the deadline without having to give up much.  Stay tuned.  

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Twins got Ryan for Cruz on July 22nd, how many days before the trade deadline?  Not only can it be done with the right offer, it has been recently.  We simply need to make the right offer.  

Personally, I think we are waiting for the BIG offers to be snapped up so we can pick up the left overs at the deadline without having to give up much.  Stay tuned.  

Yes, and we celebrated wildly because Joe Ryan for a half season of Nelson Cruz was clearly a fleecing we were all happy with.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I'm not saying it should have happened already, I'm only saying that I expect the Reds to move one of Castillo/Mahle before the deadline and the other at the deadline (if they're going to trade both).

I'd be thrilled if they did. Mahle has been my trade target most of the summer.