Are the Twins MLB’s Worst Baserunning Team?

[Cody Christie]

Baserunning can be an underrated part of the game. Teams with better baserunning can score more runs and win more games, so are the Twins hurting themselves by being MLB’s worst baserunning team?

Stolen bases have recently declined as home runs and strikeouts have become more prevalent. However, baserunning is still a vital component for contending teams. A runner being able to move first to third on a single provides positive value that can result in a team scoring more runs. At times, Minnesota has struggled to capitalize with runners in scoring position, and those issues can be tied back to poor baserunning. 

Coming out of the All-Star Break, Inside Edge ranked the Twins as baseball’s worst baserunning team. Multiple components go into the metrics used by Inside Edge, but the Twins rank poorly in other sites’ running metrics too. 

Statcast’s running metric is tied to sprint speed, and multiple Twins rank well in this category. Byron Buxton leads the team with a sprint speed above 29.0 ft/s, which ranks in the 94th percentile. His speed hasn’t been needed this year because he has a career-high in home runs. Other players that have scored well in sprint speed include Jorge Polanco (77th percentile), Nick Gordon (73th percentile), and Gilberto Celestino (65th percentile). Polanco might be the most surprising in the group as he hasn’t ranked this high since 2019.

The Twins have some runners on the other end of the spectrum, bringing the team’s overall ranking down. Gary Sanchez has the team’s worst sprint speed (25.0 ft/s) and ranks in the ninth percentile. Other poor runners according to sprint speed include Gio Urshela (12th percentile), Ryan Jeffers (22nd percentile), Jose Miranda (29th percentile), and Kyle Garlick (30th percentile). Looking at Minnesota’s roster, it would be easy to pick out those players as the ones who struggle the most on the base paths. However, sprint speed isn’t the only metric that factors into baserunning. 

FanGraphs has its own baserunning metric called BsR that “turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above and below average.” According to BsR, the team’s top three baserunners are Buxton (3.0 BsR), Polanco (0.6 BsR), and Trevor Larnach (0.6 BsR). Larnach being included on this leaderboard might be a surprise because of his build, but his sprint speed ranks at or above Carlos Correa and Luis Arraez. It also points to him getting the most value out of his baserunning skills. 

FanGraphs also has a surprising player at the bottom of their BsR leaderboard for the Twins. According to FanGraphs, Correa has been the team’s worst baserunner this year with a -3.9 BsR, which is almost half a win lower than his closest competitor. Correa hasn’t attempted a stolen base since 2019, so all of his negative value has been accrued in other parts of the running game. The other Twins players at the bottom of the BsR leaderboard include Urshela (-3.5 BsR), Miranda (-2.1 BsR), Sanchez (-1.9 BsR), and Celestino (-1.8 BsR). Some of Celestino’s negative value comes from being caught stealing in his only attempt this year. Overall, the Twins rank 29th according to BsR, with the Nationals being the only team ranked lower. 

Baserunning can be a tricky metric to quantify, especially with all the decisions that must be made on the base paths. Minnesota has some runners near the bottom of the league, but the team needs to do a better job minimizing their poor baserunning in the second half. 

Do you think the Twins are MLB’s worst baserunning team? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

Team speed is an asset when it is used.  We do not advance runners by SB, Hit and Run, bunt.  Buxton takes an extra base on hits, but is static once on.  We get picked off, run into outs and seem to be lost when we do not hit a HR.  But it is not just the players.  The team needs to adjust, it needs to implement the speed game and develop the skills.  Fast is not enough with a bad jump and a good catcher.  I have posted many times about my love of the GO-Go Sox, the Herzog Cardinals, even Billy Martin and Rod Carew and their steals of home.  I loved Rickey Henderson, Maury Wills, Brock and others who ran the basepaths and created havoc with pitchers and fielders.

Thanks for the article. 

[Castinofan]

Glad someone finally wrote this article.  Last night is a perfect example.  Why didn't Correa score in the first inning on the error at first base? He seems to be trying to coach other runners instead of just running fast to the next base.   Either they ignore Watkins or he is too cautious. Why don't they actually practice situational baserunning?  

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, it's brutal and I don't think it's about the speed. They run when they shouldn't and don't when they should. 

Seems to me a major issue is either the players aren't listening to Tommy Watkins, or Tommy Watkins is making very poor decisions. I don't know why they don't try something new at the hot corner.

[TwinsDr2021]

Is the really a question, it should go without saying they are the worst. The Twins have 14 stolen bases that is dead last in the majors and the next closest team has 26. 17 players have more stolen bases than the Twins whole team.

For example Gordon and Polanco lead the Twins with an amazing 3 stolen bases.

Here is a list of Yankees that have move than the Twins leaders (and these aren't speed burners) Kiner-Falefa (14), Hicks (9), Judge (9), Locastro (6), Rizzo (6), Torress (5), LeMahieu (4).

Want to know who is tied with Buxton (2), Joey Gallo, Jose Trevino (yes a catcher), and two former twins Josh Donaldson and Marwin Gonzalez.

Last year they were tied for 24th (only 4 teams had less), in 2020 dead last, in 2019 you guessed it dead last,  in 2018 they were tied for 27th (only 3 teams had less), In 2017 they were 9th, in 2016 12th. This FO is absolutely adverse to stealing bases, which I think leads to them be bad everywhere on the base paths.

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it's brutal and I don't think it's about the speed. They run when they shouldn't and don't when they should. 

Seems to me a major issue is either the players aren't listening to Tommy Watkins, or Tommy Watkins is making very poor decisions. I don't know why they don't try something new at the hot corner.

The first paragraph nails it. They make so many bone headed baserunning decisions. But not all of that can be blamed on Watkins. Sending a runner home, yes. But most baserunning decisions are made (properly) by the baserunner. Going 1st to 3rd, tagging, playing it halfway, taking a base on a pitch in the dirt. These are instinctual and learned things that need to be done correctly, and the Twins are awful at this. Baserunning that should have been learned in little league and high school. Add some questionable decisions by Watkins and...uffda.

Last night, for example, in the first, both Correa and Garlick made blunders on the bloop from Miranda. Garlick got picked off, but Correa was 1/3 of the way down the line and wasn't going to be able to tag and score even if Garlick doesn't get doubled off, DESPITE the left fielder leaving his feet.

They're not a fast team, so the lack of stolen bases is partially explained, but also I think it's clear someone in the organization has decided to forfeit this tactic. I think that's a mistake, although I admit opinions on this may vary.

Overall, the baserunning is awful.

 

[CharlieDee]

Our base running stinks because Rocco doesn't care about it.  We don't steal. We never hit and run. We don't sacrifice bunt.  Rocco has one plan when it comes to offense - hit a home run. That's it.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Castinofan said:

Glad someone finally wrote this article.  Last night is a perfect example.  Why didn't Correa score in the first inning on the error at first base? He seems to be trying to coach other runners instead of just running fast to the next base.   Either they ignore Watkins or he is too cautious. Why don't they actually practice situational baserunning?  

Correa didn’t score because he wasn’t advancing on a ground ball hit in front of him. However, in the same inning, he did not tag when Yelich made the diving catch. It is a moot point because Garlick ran into an out on the same play. 

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Correa didn’t score because he wasn’t advancing on a ground ball hit in front of him. However, in the same inning, he did not tag when Yelich made the diving catch. It is a moot point because Garlick ran into an out on the same play. 

Sorry Chief, I kind of stepped all over your response. 

[Linus]

I wouldn’t limit it to just baserunning. This team makes mental mistakes nearly every game and some of it is crap that would get you benched in Legion ball.  I was calling out on every game that wasn’t clean. I finally stopped because there was no point. It’s more noteworthy when they play a mistake free game.  I’m not a Rocco bashed but this aspect of this team reflects poorly on him as a manager. 

[Game7-91]

Twins the worst? Dont know. They are certainly bad.

Is it org philosophy abt generating runs, coaching staff not prioritizing fundamental skills, players not focusing, all of the above? Dont know, but they are hurting themselves.

Runs score 90' at a time. I wish they would take gaining that real estate with the commitment it deserves at MLB level, but it's hard to see that commitment with this team. 3 new pitchers arent going to fix that part.

[tony&rodney]

Tough to know but it does seem like the current brain trust doesn't care for base-running, bunting, or sacrifices in any fashion. Even the simple details of backing up fielders seems lax. The Twins seem good at their approaches on the other hand, pitching and batting.

[Rosterman]

So many get the hand glove at first. Why?

[wavedog]

Thanks for this article - it supports the eye test from watching games this year.  If we are not the worst base-running team we are certainly in the discussion.   It also helps explain why we have a boom or bust offense.   The sprint speed stats were interesting as well. 

[h2oface]

Absloutely. I have been bringing it up all year. A virtual small rodent type animal even tried to argue with me about it. Putrid. Many are just slow, but even the quick runners don't steal well or don't even attempt to steal because they are only 50% effective. Mental mistakes on the bases. And Watkins is even worse at third base than Diaz was. Really a sad part of the coaching and training it seems.

There are other teams that are worse than the Twins on the bases, but they are in the bottom of the heap in stuff like going first to third, scoring from first on a double, and even scoring from second on a single. We watch other teams run at will on us. 

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it's brutal and I don't think it's about the speed. They run when they shouldn't and don't when they should. 

Seems to me a major issue is either the players aren't listening to Tommy Watkins, or Tommy Watkins is making very poor decisions. I don't know why they don't try something new at the hot corner.

If Tommy Watkins is the problem then Baldelli is the one who should make the change.

 

[miller761]

If we are ever going to go somewhere in post season play we have to be average or above average in the other apsects of the game. Baserunning is one of those things along with bunting, hitting behind and/or advancing the runner, taking the extra base when it is there, hitting and running, stealing bases and getting the runner in from third with less than 2 outs. See the Houston Astros as a prime example.

[Aerodeliria]

Preach it! This is fundamental baseball. I hate to always look back to the 80s and 90s, but Tom Kelly would not tolerate bad baserunning, especially by the players. If you screwed up on the basepaths, you might find yourself on the bench for a game to reflect.

[bean5302]

Let's be honest, Falvey has a fetish for bat only guys who could be outrun by a guy in a power wheelchair with a dead battery.

Miranda, Urshela, Larnach, Arraez, Sano, Correa, Sanchez, Garlick, Celestino, Contreras... they're all well below average runners for their positions.

The only quicker than average for their position guys we have are probably Gordon, Kepler and Buxton.

There is very little speed on the team and it doesn't feel like there's an effort to stress base running awareness. Brian Dozier wasn't a fast guy, but heads up base running made him a positive value on the base paths. Conversely, Eduardo Escobar couldn't get a good jump on a base stealing attempt if the game was on the line.

The team Base Running on Fangraphs is -13.3 and ranks 29th in MLB (worst in the AL). Texas is the best at +16.5. Top 10 is +3 or higher, bottom 10 are -3 or lower. It all adds up to the Twins coughing up probably 2 wins this year on base running, which isn't crippling, but 2 more wins would sure be nice.

[PatPfund]

Truly awful. One of the most amazing things about the 8-5 triple play the Twins had against the White Sox is that for a change, the other team was stupider on the bases than the home nine.

(I know it will never happen for several reasons, but it's too bad Molitor couldn't do some base-running drills in Spring Training. This team's running skills are so consistently bad it clearly gets back to coaching fundamentals, or the lack thereof.)