3 X-Factors for the Twins in the Second Half

[Nash Walker]

An X factor is “a variable in any given situation that could have the most significant impact on the outcome.” Who fits that description for the Twins in the second half?

 

It’s common knowledge that the Twins will have to make significant additions at the trade deadline if they want to contend down the stretch and into October. The offense, which ranks top-5 in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), needs help from the pitching staff. The holes are apparent and reasonably wide. 

Even then, the Twins won’t go anywhere without solid performances from players on the roster. In other words, who has the most upside?

3. Sonny Gray
Before the lockout, the Twins were to rely on a pair of rookies (and Dylan Bundy) to lead the rotation. They had confidence in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who have pitched pretty well when healthy this year but the rotation required a high-performing veteran who could anchor the group. 

The Twins made Sonny Gray that anchor, trading their 2021 first-round pick in Chase Petty to acquire him. Gray has made 14 starts and thrown 69 innings, a limited amount due to injuries. He’s posted a 3.52 ERA and 0.9 bWAR. It’d be fair to label his season as lukewarm, at least to this point. 

From 2019 to 2021, Gray was 35% better than the league average in terms of ERA. His 3.57 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) ranked 18th among 79 starters who started at least 50 games. Gray followed up a similarly-mediocre first half of 2019 with a tremendous second half, posting a 2.12 ERA with 102 strikeouts in 85 innings. 

The Twins need pitching help, but the frontline starter version of Gray would be massive. He’s off to a good start, allowing just one run in six strong innings with seven strikeouts in Detroit on Sunday. 

2. Carlos Correa
Correa finished fifth in MVP voting in 2021 with 7.2 WAR in 148 games. He’s on pace for ~4 WAR in 122 games this year. There’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll eclipse that number. Correa got off to a plodding start, thanks to the lockout and an even-shorter spring training. Correa also missed 24 of the Twins’ first 96 games due to COVID and a finger injury. 

Offensively, Correa is posting nearly identical numbers to his outstanding 2021 season. He’s hitting .280 compared to .279 in 2021, and his OPS+ of 131 is the same. His season has been different defensively, where FanGraphs says he’s saved only two runs compared to a whopping 20 a year ago. 

Correa is a superstar, and Twins fans have seen flashes of him to this point. It’d be hard to argue he’s been the MVP-caliber player, primarily for reasons out of his control. He’s now healthy and geared up to produce at a very high level in the second half. 

If the Twins can hold off the Guardians and White Sox for the divisional crown, they’ll get to exploit a primary reason for acquiring Correa. He’s driven in 59 runs in 79 playoff games, already one of the best postseason performers ever. 

1. Byron Buxton
Buxton’s age-28 season has been unique. He’s hit 23 homers and produced 2.8 WAR, but he’s been in and out of the lineup with right knee problems, contributing to prolonged slumps. Buxton has started only 43 games in centerfield and recently received a PRP injection to help heal. 

Having confidence in Buxton remaining healthy enough to perform in the second half is difficult. He’s unlikely to reach 100% for the rest of the campaign. Buxton is also an undeniable talent, capable of changing games (and seasons) with his world-class defense and newfound power. 

A relatively healthy Buxton alters the scope of the Twins. This has remained true in 2022, even through his difficult stretches. Despite logging less than 400 innings in center, Buxton is tied for the league lead with seven Outs Above Average. Buxton has saved five runs, good for 5th in the AL among those who’ve spent 350+ innings in center. He's been incredible, as usual. 

One could argue that a healthy Buxton is the ultimate X factor in MLB. Since 2019, the Twins are 143-97 (96-win pace) when Buxton starts and 119-121 (80-win pace) when he doesn’t. That’s evidence enough to give the electric All-Star the top spot. 

What do you think about these rankings? Is there another X factor you feel was missing? Comment below!

 

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[terrydactyls]

I would submit the front office as another X factor.  They have just six days to make this team an actual contender. 

[mikelink45]

The real X factor is the BP - like last night, if we do not have a solid BP, our shaky rotation after Gray and Ryan is helpless.  And since they do not go deep, they too rely on the arms in the pen. 

[Mark G]

I would add the catching factor.  Sanchez and a first time call up are what we are going to live or die with?  I would hope not.  Add that to the trade desired list, and it doesn't leave as much room for BP help as we had before.  

[Dennesey55347]

This is a weird team. We already know they have no true front line (#2 debatable) starter and the pen could use some help.  Offensively, outside of Arraez's average and Bux's HR's,  they are void of an across the board stat-stuffer. No RBI stand out.  No stolen base production. No one that any pitcher would intentionally walk. No clutch-hero. Who do they want at the plate when a big hit is needed? Arraez? Buxton's production HEAVILY relies on the HR. Last I checked he was batting around .178 if HR's are removed. With the Doziers, Rosario's, Cruz's, and even doubles maestro Escobar long gone, we are missing that guy who gives you hope with the game on the line. 

[Byrdman]

There is only one X factor for this team.  That is the Bullpen.  We need 4 arms and we need it now or we will not even make it to the playoffs. I have been screaming this for two months now.  The rest of the team is fine.  It is the bullpen.  They are/will be the reason we do not make it to the playoffs.  

[dxpavelka]

So here's a fun exercise.   Much talk a year (and more than a year) ago about the wisdom of moving Buxton.  Where would this team be today without him?

[tony&rodney]

Nothing wrong, at all, with the list. However, the Twins need a couple of decent relief pitchers and could really benefit from a starter that goes 6-7 innings too.

[Heiny]

So, let me get this straight.  We need two top relievers,  one top starting pitcher, and a reliable good hitting catcher to compete for the playoffs.  And we have six days to acquire these pieces.  My crystal ball says "be prepared to be disappointed".  Oh the ever optimist once again turns pessimist.  LOL.

 

[Karbo]

X factor is the FO. Either they get a couple of good setup guys in the pen, or we just have to hope Chicago and Cleveland tank.

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

So here's a fun exercise.   Much talk a year (and more than a year) ago about the wisdom of moving Buxton.  Where would this team be today without him?

This is just for fun, too, but the answer is entirely who we would have received in return.  Should we dream, or be realistic and just accept it would be 3 "prospects" and we would already be talking about '23?    

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

X factor is the FO. Either they get a couple of good setup guys in the pen, or we just have to hope Chicago and Cleveland tank.

Yup. When you don't add in the offseason you have to add during the season. The Twins could still win the AL Central without adding any players if both Cleveland and Chicago continue their lackluster seasons, but the Twins have a more difficult schedule ahead and adding some guys would certainly help. Falvey is on point right now - we shall see what he has in his hat, soon.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

So here's a fun exercise.   Much talk a year (and more than a year) ago about the wisdom of moving Buxton.  Where would this team be today without him?

I have been a huge fan of Buxton all along, for sure. Still, the Marlins may have given up Alcantara + for Byron a year ago. Still like Buxton, but the Twins need to get some relief pitchers and a bonus would be a starter. The MLB roster looks pretty solid and affords the Twins an opportunity to trade some prospects for needed players.

[joefish]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

So here's a fun exercise.   Much talk a year (and more than a year) ago about the wisdom of moving Buxton.  Where would this team be today without him?

That would depend on who they traded him for, right?

[AceWrigley]

I think Sano is a big X-factor. If he can get into a hitting groove he could really pump up the offense as we make a push for the post season.

[Shaitan]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

So here's a fun exercise.   Much talk a year (and more than a year) ago about the wisdom of moving Buxton.  Where would this team be today without him?

And this site has 30 discussions about trading Correa right now too (and probably a few about the Gray trade too).

Some people just love to play front office simulator.

[Shaitan]

Three for me (using the current roster):

Buxton's health at postseason

Gray's health at postseason

Maeda's health at postseason

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Three for me (using the current roster):

Buxton's health at postseason

Gray's health at postseason

Maeda's health at postseason

I like this plenty because of the assumption.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Mark G said:

This is just for fun, too, but the answer is entirely who we would have received in return.  Should we dream, or be realistic and just accept it would be 3 "prospects" and we would already be talking about '23?    

Based on the esteem in which he was (is) held by those that were looking to move him, I would have expected 2 prospects neither of which would have been ready by 23.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I have been a huge fan of Buxton all along, for sure. Still, the Marlins may have given up Alcantara + for Byron a year ago. Still like Buxton, but the Twins need to get some relief pitchers and a bonus would be a starter. The MLB roster looks pretty solid and affords the Twins an opportunity to trade some prospects for needed players.

Marlins weren't giving up Alcantara.  If they were they'd have had a line from here to Miami of teams looking to make that move and would have gotten far more than we would have offered for him.  And they didn't move him so that says a lot about what their intentions were to make such a move.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, joefish said:

That would depend on who they traded him for, right?

It's the Twins so draw your own conclusions on that.  We move four other pieces last year and got one guy who has thus far helped and a few others that have not yet advanced. 

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Marlins weren't giving up Alcantara.  If they were they'd have had a line from here to Miami of teams looking to make that move and would have gotten far more than we would have offered for him.  And they didn't move him so that says a lot about what their intentions were to make such a move.

Exactly and Buxton wasn't moving either.

[Rosterman]

I actually like the Twins offense lineup...if I could just figure out what the perfect lineup MIGHT be. Has Rocco used the same lineup twice this year? You sometimes wonder. Don't players play off each other in the batting order as much as running them out according to the daily stat sheet?

The only flaw in the current lineup is finding room for Sano. He should NOT be at first base. He should not bat before or after Sanchez. Those are two givens. The guys who are suffering the most with Sano in the lineup are Arraez NOT playing (which shouldn't happen) and Miranda sitting on the bench or Garlick not getting some plate time. Sano gives us a stronger bench, but a weaker lineup...so far.

A few days ago the Twins had six starters who were capable of pitching in the majors. Now we are looking at three...four at best. And names like Sands, Balazovic, Henriquez are NOT part of the equation. And doubt the Twins would advance Varland, Canterino, Woods-Rchardson without extensive Triple-A time.

I don't need to see any of the Sanchez's, or Dereck Rodriguez back. Strotman is doing absolutely nothing. The Twins HAVE to make a trade. And the only bright lights are that Maeda might be back and capable of throwing more innings than Chris Archer, and Ober might return. I was feeling good before the All-Star break thinking that WInder would be back with Smeltzer in reserve. But now I'm on the hook about what to do with Bundy and Archer. I wish the Twins weren't competitive as they might've been able to move both of them off the roster this week for a low-level prospect.

And, of course, the bullpen. What? Where? Worn out? Tired? Better get a golf cart so they don't wear themselves out walking in from the outfield...so much.

[Danchat]

10 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Has Rocco used the same lineup twice this year?

According to Baseball Reference, the Twins have used 6 of the same lineups twice.