Trade Rumor: Rosenthal writes that Rival Official Predicts White Sox Runaway Division Winners

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, bighat said:

Yep, me too. The Twins are the type of team who will go 2-4, 3-4, and 4-3 over the next few weeks. They've been treading water for about 1.5 months now and have let many winnable games go. Most of us have watched them all year and I think most of us agree that this is a very average MLB team with lots of holes.

These same Twins were also 11 games over .500 at one point. Yeah, they've been treading water for the last 2 months but Cleveland and Chicago have been 2-4, 3-4, and 4-3 all year. What about either of those two teams suggests they'll pull off a run like MN did to start the year?

Don't get me wrong, the Twins have plenty of warts and I have my own reservations, but I just don't understand the faith some seem to have in either CLE or especially CHI suddenly getting their s*** together enough to take over the division. 

[Monkeypaws]

Certainly a possibility - they were the team I feared most coming into the season, not the Guardians. If they get going, game over.

[old nurse]

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t understand why there’s so much confidence in Chicago, who has done nothing but play .500 ball or worse for 4 months. And Cleveland, whose peaks and valleys are more extreme than the Twins. 

Gioloto and Lynn have had bag years, but the last couple were good. It would appear that writers forget the bad years and expect them to return to last year’s form.  The other thought would be payment by clicks

[Irishman]

Chicago or Cleveland could be in 1st Place in a month,       Twins Bullpen are very real bad.  Too many blown saves!   Baldelli is not very good manager.  

[Peter]

I hope twins make moves at deadline to get help with pitching!!!! They need to!!! With Chicago/Cleveland being inconsistent-I think if twins get help with pitching they will eek out division. September will decide it with key games against sox/Cleveland!!!??????

[Whitey333]

I think the whole thing is a crap shoot.  Any of the three teams could win it.  All are decent teams with lots of flaws and the ability to choke away games. After a very good start Twins have been below 500 for the past 50-55 games.  Their ship is sinking but Sox and Cleveland can't seem to take control either.  The trade deadline could prove the difference the rest of the way 

[dxpavelka]

If we get one game for every "expert" who makes a prediction without putting his name on it, we win the division by at least 8 games.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Irishman said:

Chicago or Cleveland could be in 1st Place in a month,       Twins Bullpen are very real bad.  Too many blown saves!   Baldelli is not very good manager.  

Sox bullpen isn't better than the ours.  Should be but it's not.

[gunnarthor]

Any of these teams could win the central. The Twins pitching is bad but our lineup is pretty impressive and we've taken 6 of the 10 against Chicago, which is a good way to keep them behind us. Fangraphs slightly favors the Sox over us.

Health and pitching will probably be the defining matters for these last few months. 

[TwinsDr2021]

16 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t understand why there’s so much confidence in Chicago, who has done nothing but play .500 ball or worse for 4 months. And Cleveland, whose peaks and valleys are more extreme than the Twins. 

IMO it has to do with how much the Twins have over performed (based on this years expectation) on top of how bad the pen has been and how terrible Chicago has been and there only 3 games separate the two teams. If some of these guys on Chicago start to click and the Twins don't change, well I think we know the outcome of that.

 

[jmlease1]

What was irritating about that bit was the lack of recognition on what a big swing that would be. Winning the division by more than 5 games when you're 4 games back, means making up 10 games in the standings. Ten! That makes it a fairly outrageous statement, essentially saying the Twins will collapse while the seriously under-achieving White Sox will go on a real run. But instead of commenting on that aspect or explaining what it means, Rosenthal simply prints it at face value from an anonymous source, then defends it in the comments when challenged by saying "I heard it from a baseball official I trust more than you!"

That's just crappy writing and bad journalism.

White Sox might still win the division: Twins are scuffling, with a below average bullpen unable to hold up with a rotation that struggles to go deep in games and has had some rough efforts lately. Chicago has quite a bit of a talent and better top-end rotation (and if Giolito gets back on track, maybe more depth...but Cueto is also likely a small sample size waiting on regression and/or injury, so it might be a wash), but also has some gaping holes in their lineup and a brutally bad defense. 

The other laughable bit that came out of that article had the twins losing the division because of their "lack of offense at catcher", when Chicago is running out McGuire (OPS+ of 58) and Grandal (OPS+ of 63) and Cleveland has Hedges (OPS+ of 49) and Maile (OPS+ of 67). Twins may be down Jeffers (OPS+ of 91), but Sanchez is now the primary catcher with an OPS+ of 92. Maybe, just maybe a professional journalist should lend a critical eye against his sources, especially if he's going to print their anonymous opinions.

Doesn't mean the twins are going to win the division: Cle might still pull it off, but there's very little to say for sure that they're going to out-play the twins (Cle still has holes on offense, their starting pitching hasn't performed much better, and their bullpen isn't anything to write home about). but the idea that they'll win the division because the twins don't have enough offense at catcher is pretty laughable.

[Karbo]

I can see this happening. If the FO can't get at least 2 good setup guys for the pen, it may be over by Mid Sept.

[Vanimal46]

37 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO it has to do with how much the Twins have over performed (based on this years expectation) on top of how bad the pen has been and how terrible Chicago has been and there only 3 games separate the two teams. If some of these guys on Chicago start to click and the Twins don't change, well I think we know the outcome of that.

 

Sure, that’s fair. It still feels like they’re grasping at straws hoping Chicago finally clicks when they’ve shown over 4 months they’re nothing more than a .500 team.

Chicago’s been on a roller coaster of bad month followed up with good month. Meanwhile the Twins have only been under .500 in June when they went 13-15. 

Agree with your last sentence though. If the Twins stand pat at the deadline, all bets are off as to who will win the Central. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

What was irritating about that bit was the lack of recognition on what a big swing that would be. Winning the division by more than 5 games when you're 4 games back, means making up 10 games in the standings. Ten! That makes it a fairly outrageous statement, essentially saying the Twins will collapse while the seriously under-achieving White Sox will go on a real run.

Exactly. Saying the White Sox will win the division is a pretty even-handed take. I can make an argument for any of the three teams right now but the Twins currently have the lead, which gives them the advantage.

But predicting a 9-10 game swing is outlandish. There's literally nothing to indicate that will be the case. The Twins continue to tread water while the White Sox continue to bounce around .500, never getting more than a couple of games over before sliding again.

[MABB1959]

22 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

This isn't the year to play in that sandbox.

Why not?  We should be playing in the sandbox every year.  

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, Peter said:

I hope twins make moves at deadline to get help with pitching!!!! They need to!!! With Chicago/Cleveland being inconsistent-I think if twins get help with pitching they will eek out division. September will decide it with key games against sox/Cleveland!!!??????

They absolutely should get help with pitching or what is the sense of owning a MLB team?  Seems profits is the reason the Pohlad's own a MLB team.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Why not?  We should be playing in the sandbox every year.  

Falvey's stated goal is to play in that sandbox every year.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Falvey's stated goal is to play in that sandbox every year.

Heard he's an elite sand castle builder.

[ICTwin25]

With how bad the pitching has been since Wes Johnson left, it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins finished 3rd in the Division. I'm almost to the point where I dont want to trade prospects for pitching right now because there are so many holes in the bullpen and the starting rotation. I trust 2 starters and 3 relievers...that's it. Unless they score 10 runs a game when Joe Ryan or Sonny Gray aren't starting, it could be an ugly second half.

[Coach Wheels]

If thus roster doesn't change by the end of Tuesday, Aug. 2nd, they don't win the division. This bullpen has shown no signs of improving and we have starters who can't pitch past 4 or 5 innings. That means a bad bullpen gets more innings. It's not gonna work and we can't hit our way to a title

[BoxersRule13]

The bulk of the pitching issues needs to be addressed every off-season. It should be priority #1 every year & it never seems to be. Every year the Twins go cheap on pitching.  It's like they don't realize that pitching is by far the most vital part of baseball. 

[Finlander]

Nobody has mentioned defense. Everyone has compared the lineups strictly by their offensive output. We're holding our own in run scoring capability. I think the X factor separating Chicago and Minnesota is the platinum glove guys we have at SS and CF. The WSox defense has been costing them as many games as our bullpen has for us.

That said, I hope we go out and get some more pitching soon. The staff seems to be on life support and we can't count on the eventual injury returns to be effective. I'd like to also see a catching acquisition. That could really help the pitching staff as well. I'm not concerned as much about a catcher's OPS+ as what he does behind the plate. Sanchez can hit an occasional bomb but he's not known to be defensively helpful to his pitchers.

[Thebigalguy]

It's a lousy division. I still want the Twins to win it. To do so, they have to win games and matchups. Can't do it giving up 7-10 runs a game. Spahn and Sain and pray for rain? Here, it's Ryan and Gray and just plain pray. What a mess the pitching staff is. So many what ifs: what if they'd kept Rogers? Berrios? Since that's water under the bridge, I say bring up the best pitchers they have in the Small to the Big and let's see what happens. Ober and Duran's arms will give out if they continue to be overused because the other options blow games big time on a daily basis. Deal. Promote. Fire. Wake up the dingbats: a little craziness won't hurt. Give Baldelli a few shots of caffeine.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, BoxersRule13 said:

The bulk of the pitching issues needs to be addressed every off-season. It should be priority #1 every year & it never seems to be. Every year the Twins go cheap on pitching.  It's like they don't realize that pitching is by far the most vital part of baseball. 

They realize the importance of pitching. They believe the ROI on good free agent pitching is abysmal and they're not wrong.

While I want to see them play a little in the higher-end pitching market, the real path to winning is developing pitching.

And as long as they continue trying to acquire pitching via trade, that's probably a better alternative than outright free agent spending. While they were burned on Paddack - at least for now - their acquisitions of Odorizzi and Maeda were very good. Hopefully they can do that again in the coming days.

[Riverbrian]

Good Luck with your prediction... MR. Executive... whoever you are. 

There are 26 players on all 30 teams who are going to perform above and below expectation for periods of time during the next two months that will blow any prediction he may have OUT OF THE WATER. 

Now if this executive does indeed have the ability to foresee the up and down progressions for 26 players on all 30 teams in the next two months. This Executive is pretty amazing and it obviously means that his team is winning every single year. 

I

[bean5302]

The level of butt-hurt in here... It's as if this guy just slapped your mom and tripped your dad (who was using crutches at the time) in front of you before doing one of those douchey back up with the arms spread, head tilted "whatcha gonna do?" faces.

The potential of the White Sox is undeniable. They're sleeping monsters right now. If their pitchers figure some stuff out and have a couple bounces go their way, that team could be unstoppable.
Cease is an ace this year
Kopech has ace potential.
Giolito has ace potential.
Lynn has ace potential
Cueto is having a nice resurgence year

Every single one of those guys is arguably potentially better than any pitcher we have. Certainly everybody excluding Cueto.

Now, when it comes to the offensive side, they could use a little help, but Moncada appears to finally be waking up and Eloy Jimenez was just activated. Both have more potential than any player not named Buxton on the Twins.

The White Sox could easily go on a .700 winning percentage to end the season and the Twins have been under .500 since mid/late May. The White Sox's schedule is more than 1/2 made up of series' against losing teams, most of whom are going to be sellers and will probably further regress.
Rockies (.450, bad, sellers)
Athletics (.376, terrible, sellers)
Royals (.394 terrible, sellers)
Rangers (.449 bad)
Royals (.394 terrible, sellers)
Tigers (.400 terrible)
Astros (.650 excellent)
Guardians (.510 good)
Royals (.394 terrible, sellers)
Orioles (.505, wow, I didn't expect that, go Orioles)
Diamondbacks (.459, bad, sellers)
Royals (.394 terrible, sellers)
Twins (.531 good)
Mariners (.540 good)
Athletics (.376 terrible, sellers)
Rockies (.450 bad, sellers)
Tigers (.400, terrible)
Guardians (.510 good)
Tigers (.400, terrible)
Twins (.531 good)
Padres (.550 very good)
Twins (.531 good)

I do not like the White Sox, but I recognize how much money has been spent there and just how much talent that team has. The fact they're hovering around .500 this year feels like an act of God.

[jkcarew]

On 7/27/2022 at 9:50 AM, Vanimal46 said:

Chicago’s been on a roller coaster of bad month followed up with good month. Meanwhile the Twins have only been under .500 in June when they went 13-15…

…and July, unless they win the SD series.

The Twins are 5 games under 500 since May 24…that’s over two months without anything resembling a really solid stretch.

Chicago has only picked up 2 games in that stretch…but if, say, the Twins play like this for the NEXT two months, Chicago wouldn’t have to get hot at all to overtake them. And a good 2nd half, of which they SHOULD be capable, would get them close to 5 games up fairly realistically.

Of course that won’t happen if the Twins turn things around, even moderately. But I think that will take a move or two at the deadline…moves that actually turn out working.

[Mike Sixel]

On 7/27/2022 at 1:14 PM, ICTwin25 said:

With how bad the pitching has been since Wes Johnson left, it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins finished 3rd in the Division. I'm almost to the point where I dont want to trade prospects for pitching right now because there are so many holes in the bullpen and the starting rotation. I trust 2 starters and 3 relievers...that's it. Unless they score 10 runs a game when Joe Ryan or Sonny Gray aren't starting, it could be an ugly second half.

you're suggesting the pitchers forgot everything Wes taught them in one week? I doubt that is the issue at all.

[adjacent]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

you're suggesting the pitchers forgot everything Wes taught them in one week? I doubt that is the issue at all.

I don't know what they forgot, but since he left the pitching has been absolutely terrible. Rotation and bullpen.

[KirbyDome89]

On 7/28/2022 at 12:08 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

They realize the importance of pitching. They believe the ROI on good free agent pitching is abysmal and they're not wrong.

While I want to see them play a little in the higher-end pitching market, the real path to winning is developing pitching.

And as long as they continue trying to acquire pitching via trade, that's probably a better alternative than outright free agent spending. While they were burned on Paddack - at least for now - their acquisitions of Odorizzi and Maeda were very good. Hopefully they can do that again in the coming days.

Me too, and it's because the second part of that sentence doesn't seem to be happening. Maybe (hopefully) this is the absolute low point, but is there any young pitcher that could be up this year or next that you feel great about right now? Maybe the kid they just drafted, a few tearing up A ball, but the group that was supposed to be breaking through this year has largely fallen apart. 

They've certainly done better in trades, mostly because they seem to target higher end arms that way. I'd stop short of calling Maeda a very good acquisition; he was great for 11 starts in a short '20, pretty bad last year and then injured, he'll miss most if not all of this season, and he'll be a 35 year old starter trying to bounce back from TJ next year. Maybe he kills it next year; it's not like Graterol has been a monster for LA either, so I'd certainly make a Kenta-esque trade again. 

There has to be a balance, and the FO needs to adapt in order to maintain that equilibrium. I think that's laregely been a failure on the pitching front.