Trade Rumor: Rosenthal writes that Rival Official Predicts White Sox Runaway Division Winners

[Brock Beauchamp]

In his trade deadline roundup, Ken Rosenthal writes that the Twins need to make a splash and rival officials are predicting the team to fade away as the summer rolls along.

One official said the Guardians are better than the Twins, which is probably a fair assessment... but the shocking prediction from another official is that the White Sox will win the division by 5+ games when all is said and done.

That's a lot of confidence for a team that has underperformed at every turn through 100 games and currently sits four games back of the Twins, a team that peaked at four games over .500... on April 16th.

So, how likely do you think it is the Twins will win the AL Central this season?

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[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Likely now.  It’s nice being labeled the underdog.  Can somebody get this to Rocco so that he can post it on the locker room whiteboard?

[Minderbinder]

They've been playing .500 ball for quite a while now.  If the pitching doesn't turn around (and I'd argue they should be shopping to bolster the bullpen before the starters who should be tanned, rested and as good as they're ever going to be for the 2H), then the Twins look like a 3rd-place team to me.

Montas is a classic buy-high situation for one season of control max.  Oakland has all the leverage.  This isn't the year to play in that sandbox.

[bunsen82]

If Twins get 1-2 more above average relievers this is a completely different team.  No offense but I don't see anyway White Sox walk away even with their incredibly weak schedule.  We are talking a 9 game difference.  That is a very large amount.  Really our Top 4 starting pitchers have been solid all year,  and they seemed to get refreshed after the All Star Break.  

So to Win, Twins need to trade for 2 relievers minimum.  have a healthy Buxton who begins to hit for higher average, wait for injury reinforcements on the pitching side for the bullpen.  If can get 1-2 more arms back and we still have the lead in the division or tied,  that might be enough.  

[Blyleven2011]

They all have to play the games and the twins are ahead with a 3 1/2 game lead ....

Do the Twins have what it takes to be a contender  at this moment  , I would say no ....  

Competitive  I would say yes  ...

Trade deadline  could change everything  for twins and the central division challengers ....

I don't have much faith in FO going after top quality  arms  ,,, they really have never given us that luxury  ,,, sonny gray and maeda are good but not top quality as far as trades go ....

 

[farmerguychris]

More often than not, I have been good with the moves this FO has made.  They acknowledge they need BP arms.  I think they'll find some.  I just hope that we don't move a potential full time starter for 3 month rental arm.  We aren't really in a push for a championship are we?  But as it stands now - I'm never comfortable going into the second half of any game without a lead of at least 6+ runs.

[Game7-91]

CWS have a definite scheduling advantage, but that might not mean much when they have shown an ability to lose any game, to any team, on any night, for no reason other than ineptitude.

Who wins ALC? I have no idea. Might be better put: In the next 10 weeks which teams will lose the most otherwise winnable games? The one with the lowest number wins.

[twinssporto]

I'm more in the camp that the Twins will run away with the division. The White Sox and Cleveland are not showing much in the way of being prolific teams. I think we have decent depth but need to boost our pitching and bullpen. I am curious to see how Kenta Maeda will fit in towards the end of the 2nd half.....could be a boost for the bullpen or starting rotation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, twinssporto said:

I'm more in the camp that the Twins will run away with the division. The White Sox and Cleveland are not showing much in the way of being prolific teams. I think we have decent depth but need to boost our pitching and bullpen. I am curious to see how Kenta Maeda will fit in towards the end of the 2nd half.....could be a boost for the bullpen or starting rotation.

I really doubt they’ll even consider Maeda for the rotation given the need in the bullpen and how much longer it would take for Kenta to work up to 100 pitches. 

[Unwinder]

I believe I saw an article somewhere on the Athletic that said the White Sox have the trade deadline advantage of more glaring weak points that can be upgraded for cheap, while the Twins' weak points are more mediocre than bad, and are in areas that are more expensive to upgrade (they see starting pitching as a big one). So I think the trade deadline outcome is a huge factor in how the rest of the season plays out for the ALC.

[Dman]

The Twins were just a few Bullpen meltdowns from being up by 6 games or more at the break so I think if they can strengthen the pen they can compete  down the stretch.  The White Sox have the easiest schedule and if their starting pitching holds they have enough offense to get it done.  I guess I don't have a ton of confidence they will though.  Cleveland is plucky they have the pitching and they actually have offense this year.  I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled it out in the end but they have the toughest schedule left so probably going to be tough for them as well. Its a coin flip for me but should be fun down the stretch.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

If the Twins make no trades, then they are certainly vulnerable. But there's absolutely no reason to expect that they will sit on their hands. They've been active in past years and they know what their needs are.

As for the White Sox and Guardians... have these rival officials watched them play this year? Neither of those teams is any good, the Twins have been there for the taking for months and they haven't gained any ground at all.

[bean5302]

Right now, today.
White Sox 50%
Guardians 30%
Twins 20%

[howeda7]

Whoever wins the majority of the 9 games between them will likely win the division. I don't think the schedule strength gap is a big as they're making it out to be. Enough to make up 2-3 games maybe.

[dex8425]

Per fangraphs the Twins have a better change of making the postseason than either CWS or Cle. The White Sox suck. Their clubhouse is a mess. The Twins are like two bullpen arms away from running away with the division. 

[CRF]

We'll know in the next week or so, how good a team the FO thinks we have. If they sit on their hands and do very little, or nothing, then it's sure possible that Cleve and/or Chi could lap us. I hope that doesn't happen. We all know what this team needs. If we can get a couple decent arms, that would make a world of difference. We certainly are in the conversation about winning the division. I don't think there's any doubt about that. We could sure use some help though. I want to see some action by the FO, not excuses. Let's say we do win the division. Depending on how it shakes out and who we'd play, we could advance. The Yanks and Stros will get the byes. but we'd more than likely get killed by either of them anyway.

[nicksaviking]

25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Right now, today.
White Sox 50%
Guardians 30%
Twins 20%

It's actually Twins, than White Sox, than Guardians:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/mlb/division-odds/#ALCentral

But I mean, what do the bookies know anyway.

[USAFChief]

My personal odds would make the Sox a small favorite to win the division. 

"The race isn't always to the swiftest, but that's the way to bet." I believe Chicago is far and away the most talented team in the ALC. I will say I hope they don't fire LaRussa, as I think he's partly responsible for their underperformance.

I'd put the Twins a close 2nd, Cleveland a distant 3rd.

Deadline acquisitions could and likely will have an effect on the race. Get some help, Falvine. What're we waiting for?? 

Some bullpen help a month ago and this division might already be decided.

 

[big dog]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It's actually Twins, than White Sox, than Guardians:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/mlb/division-odds/#ALCentral

But I mean, what do the bookies know anyway.

Those are the odds as of 7/18. Since then, the Twins have picked up a game on the White Sox and 1.5 on the Guardians. So that's a good thing.

My hot take is that I really don't care what a "rival official", whatever that is, tells Ken Rosenthal. Is it a rival trying to get the Twins to overpay to get someone from their team? A rival official who wants to feel important? Someone who got a phone call at an inopportune time and just wanted to say something quick to get off the phone without being rude? Too much noise, not enough signal.

If I were a betting man, my most likely bet would be "someone other than the Twins" and my second-most likely bet would be "the Twins". Which is a terrible way to try and make money, kids, remember that gambling always favors the house.  But if I had to pick a team right now, I'd pick the Twins.

The White Sox seem the least likely to me, despite what seems like a loaded roster.

[TwinsDr2021]

I am more worried about the Sox then Cleveland. IF Cease keeps pitching this well and Giolito starts pitching like he has in the past, Cueto continues finding the fountain of youth, and Lynn and Kopech get hot that is a pretty solid rotation that could put together a few long win streaks. and with Graveman, Lopez and Hendriks that is a pretty good back end of the pen. If they add Robertson or Bard that looks pretty formidable.

Plus their lineup isn't terrible and if a few of the guys that have been terrible play better (Pollock, Moncada, Grandal and Jimenez) things could look real bad for the good guys.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I really doubt they’ll even consider Maeda for the rotation given the need in the bullpen and how much longer it would take for Kenta to work up to 100 pitches. 

Who are we kidding,  we would only send him out for 3-4 innings and 65 pitches to save his arm   ?

[nicksaviking]

29 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Deadline acquisitions could and likely will have an effect on the race. Get some help, Falvine. What're we waiting for??

 

Yeah, now we're in for the normal deadline feet dragging. I'm not going to place blame since I tend to assume it's the selling teams, who have zero impetus to start the process, that are holding things up. Demanding a Royce Lewis, then settling for Michael Helman and a bag of PTBNL flavored potato chips.

It is fortunate this year that the Twins wonky post-AS game schedule has them playing fewer games until the deadline. Fewer games for us to worry about them losing without the added talent anyway.

[Craig Arko]

I wonder if the rival official is Tony LaRussa.

[Vanimal46]

I don’t understand why there’s so much confidence in Chicago, who has done nothing but play .500 ball or worse for 4 months. And Cleveland, whose peaks and valleys are more extreme than the Twins. 

[Doctor Gast]

A lot of our line-up don't really get going until the 2nd half. Trade deadline will determine who fills their holes the best will come out on top. CWS has a much worse farm than we do. If we do better than CWS at filling our holes, we'll win it.

Right now our pitching is rested and is doing well I predict they'll pitch like gangbusters. Until Baldelli's over-reliance on short relief will wear them thin again and then over extend the rotation, then they'll run out gas and end up on the IL. But if they transfer that stress off the short relief and SPs onto a long relief corp, together with filling our hole adequetly we'll win our division and advance in the post season. If these problems aren't addressed properly, we won't even go to the dance.

We have a great core if address these problems properly, everyone will be rested feeling great, I see our team catch on fire, everyone would feed off each other and we go all the way. They just need the fuel and the spark.

[rwilfong86]

I think he is absolutely correct. 

[bighat]

7 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

I think he is absolutely correct. 

Yep, me too. The Twins are the type of team who will go 2-4, 3-4, and 4-3 over the next few weeks. They've been treading water for about 1.5 months now and have let many winnable games go. Most of us have watched them all year and I think most of us agree that this is a very average MLB team with lots of holes.

Right now the Twins need both Buxton and Correa to get hotter than molten-lava and they also need to add at least 3 capable bullpen arms to have a shot. Even then they will have to fend off a push.

Because don't forget that Chicago and Cleveland can both add talent as well. If the White Sox nab some pitching and Cleveland trades for guys like Nelson Cruz and/or Josh Bell....things are going look very bleak for Twins fans.

[tony&rodney]

Isn't Rosenthal short?

[big dog]

I remember when the Twins went 3-3 against Baltimore and Seattle and we all thought it was a huge lost opportunity, because they had bad records. Those games happened not long before both teams went completely wild- looking back, those were better games than we thought. I don't worry too much about strength of schedule going forward, things change.

And as others have said, acquisitions made or not made could be pretty important. Or, as is often the case, they could seem important and not work out. The White Sox looked to be unstoppable last year when they traded for Kimbrel, who was nearly untouchable that year with the Cubs and a dumpster fire with the Sox. I hope the Twins get a couple more players, but that doesn't mean it will work out.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

It's actually Twins, than White Sox, than Guardians:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/mlb/division-odds/#ALCentral

But I mean, what do the bookies know anyway.

You're right. Vegas has never been wrong about anything ever. Personal opinions seem awfully unwelcome to you.