Future 40-Man Additions Might Play Into Trade Deadline Strategy

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have at least seven prospects they'd need to be added to the 40-man to protect from this winter's Rule 5 Draft. How will those names play into the team's trade deadline strategy?

 

 

Minnesota is going to have some tough decisions to make this winter when it comes to protecting players from the Rule 5 Draft. Multiple top prospects will be added to the 40-man roster before the deadline, but there are only so many prospects a team can protect. One way to avoid some of these decisions is to include these players in trades before the deadline. 

 

 

Simeon Woods Richardson, SP
Woods Richardson is no stranger to deadline deals as he has been part of two blockbuster trades in the past. He is also arguably one of the team's top pitching prospects after a breakout season at Double-A. The Twins will undoubtedly add him to the 40-man roster, but his stock has risen since last year's trade deadline. Can the Twins use him as a part of a trade for a veteran starting pitcher?  

Matt Canterino, SP
Canterino has dominated the minor leagues when he has stayed healthy. However, he has been limited to fewer than 90 innings in three professional seasons. Teams looking to deal for prospects at the deadline might not be interested in someone who misses as much time as Canterino. Minnesota might also need to consider moving Canterino to a relief role to keep him healthy for the long term. 

Spencer Steer, INF
Steer has been one of Minnesota's breakout prospects this season as he has an OPS over .900 at Double- and Triple-A. When looking at Minnesota's roster, it's easy to see why Steer might be a more easily tradable asset. He plays a lot of defensive time at second and third base, where the Twins have other players ahead of him on the depth chart. His defensive flexibility (over 100 innings at three infield positions) could be intriguing to other organizations. 

Matt Wallner, OF
Wallner put his name on the national stage when he hit a powerful home run during the Futures Game. He has been destroying baseballs all season at Double-A, where he had 15 doubles and 21 home runs in 78 games. Minnesota promoted Wallner to Triple-A following his Futures Game heroics. He's clearly a right fielder who will also get some DH time, so does that have a lot of value on the trade market?

Louie Varland, SP
Varland surprised many by being named the TD 2021 Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. He posted a 2.10 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 103 innings. Minnesota was aggressive with him and moved him to Double-A this season, where he is younger than the average age of the competition. In 2022, Varland continued to strike out more than ten batters per nine innings. Currently, he doesn't rank as one of the team's top-5 pitching prospects, which might make the team more likely to part with him. 

Edouard Julien, INF
Minnesota selected Julien in the 2019 MLB Draft, so he didn't make his professional debut until last season in Fort Myers. In 112 games between Low- and High-A, Julien hit .267/.434/.480 (.914) with 28 doubles and 18 home runs. An eye-popping 110 walks helped his unbelievable OBP. This season at Double-A, he has continued to get on base over 40% of the time while playing exclusively at second base. His college experience and plate discipline might be intriguing to other organizations. 

Misael Urbina, OF
Urbina was one of the top prospects in the 2018-19 international signing class as he got $2.75 million from the Twins. Minnesota was aggressive with him last season and sent him to Fort Myers, where he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition. He posted a .585 OPS but showed reasonable control of the strike zone with 54 walks. So far in 2022, Urbina has been limited to fewer than 20 games, so it seems unlikely that a team would take him in the Rule 5 Draft.    

Do you think any of these players will be included in trades before the deadline? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.  

 

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[Doctor Gast]

We have some holes that need to be filled so we need to be very active in trades. Hording prospects is a losing proposition. All these prospect would probably be taken in the Rule 5 draft. I hate to lose undeveloped prospects for nothing.

So it'd be a good idea to include some of these prospects in trades. IMO SWR could be valuable to the Twins so I'd like to keep him but if a trade that would be too good to pass up, I'd hesitantly do it. 

[Dman]

Out of this list Jullien and Steer seem the most expendable to me.  The Twins have Palacios and the surging Helman at AAA.  CES, Martin and possibly Prato at AA. Severino and likely Lee at some point next year at high A. They also have Cavaco and Miller at low A and the Twins just drafted 4 other players for the Utility role so even if the Twins traded both of them away they appear to be fine at that position in the system. 

That being said I would hate to see Steer go as he is a really well rounded hitter and fielder. He could be a future Polanco replacement but with Lee in wings now it seems like the timing is likely better for Lee than Steer to replace Polanco who is still very productive.

I also think this piece is missing some players.  Legumina and Mooney are both on MLB.coms top 30 prospect list so should be considered tradable assets as well.  Not to mention the rising Schulffer and Laweryson.  I also wouldn't be surprised if someone picked off Isola, as good hitting catchers are hard to find and he had been hitting well at AA until injured.  Sure some of those guys might be fringe for the 40 man but they should have tradable value and better to have them bring in something needed than lose them for nothing in Rule V.  

Would kind of hate to lose SWR or Canterino as I think both can help the Twins down the road but for the right deal would be OK with it.  Wouldn't love trading Wallner as there isn't much for outfield depth behind him. Granted we just graduated Larnach, Kirilloff and Celestino so not a "great" need there but Wallner could be a Kepler replacement if needed so tough call there for me.

At any rate the Twins can't add all these guys so if they turn some of them into assets to help this years team they should do it otherwise they risk losing some of these players for nothing.

[MABB1959]

So trade Simone for a decent pitcher after we traded Berrios for him?   I don't know why we continue to fool ourselves into believing they will make a decent trade or even a blockbuster trade.  They show no signs of keeping Correa.  I have a hard time believing they want to improve the team at all.  Eventually you would think this would really hurt revenue which is $268 million,  salaries 137 + operating expenses.  If they really wanted a winning team they would have kept Berrios, go all out on Correa and adding another above average starter and IMO a whole new bull pen or at least have a good closer.  TEAM IS WORTH 1.39 BILLION.

[Karbo]

I've been saying this for the last couple of months now. Make some trades so you don't lose good prospects for nothing in the rule 5 draft. There are plenty of trades out there to be had IMO, and with only a week to go, its time to get busy. Need at least 2 setup guys in the pen ASAP! Another starter would be nice,(hopefully a guy Rocco will let go deeper than 5 innings) and maybe a catcher. Thats 4 guys, of course not an easy task, but I believe its possible. 

[jorgenswest]

I don’t see a roster crunch. There are several players that can be removed from the 40 to make space even accounting for the players in the 60. All of the players are near enough that they can contribute next year with the exception of Urbina. I would no put him on the 40. Trade partners want near ready players also so they might need to be traded but the motivation shouldn’t be the 40 man roster.

[FlyingFinn]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t see a roster crunch.

I disagree. When you add in free agent signings in the offseason, we don't have enough dead weight on the 40 man without eventually releasing some players who would have trade value now (might also be more cost effective to trade for a decent contract than pay top dollar to a free agrent). Plus, you can only carry so many guys that may not hit the majors next season. Otherwise, the way MLB teams are moving guys up and down so often, you run out of options, etc. for players.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t see a roster crunch. There are several players that can be removed from the 40 to make space even accounting for the players in the 60. All of the players are near enough that they can contribute next year with the exception of Urbina. I would no put him on the 40. Trade partners want near ready players also so they might need to be traded but the motivation shouldn’t be the 40 man roster.

Sure if you are just talking about the top 6 guys they can make room if they want to.  Move Garlick for Wallner, Urshela for Steer, Sano for Jullien, Duffy for SWR, Smith for Canterino, Strotman for Varland.  There done.  However as noted above the young pitchers on the 40 man that are dead weight right now based on performance are Sands, Balazovich, Henriquez, Enlow and I doubt SWR, Canterino and Varland are ready to help starting the year next year so that would be 7 pitchers on the 40 man who likely are dead weight to start the year leaving little room for error as they would be down to a 33 man and with Steer, Jullien and Wallner likely not making the 26 man then down to a 30 man roster to work pitchers in and out.  If you want a third catcher then make that 29. 

If you want to add any of the next tier of Isola, Legumina, Mooney, Headrick, Lawyerson, Sawyer Gipson Long, Schulffer or Palacios well then things get even more complicated.  Personally I think there is a legit roster crunch unless more of these players are ready to play at the MLB level.  Also there literally is no way to protect all 15 potential Rule V eligible players for next year.  They might as well trade some of these guys if they can find the right value.  There will be more guys to add next year as well although with 2020 being such a small draft and likely not needing to protect Sabato or Soularie the Twins will likely get a reprieve from adding more bodies to the 40 man.

[roger]

I would disagree with one point, Cody.  Rather than the word 'might' in your title, I would replace it with 'should'.  Or if allowed to use more than one word as a replacement, would insert, 'damn well better.'

I don't know who should be traded as I like all the guys you mention.  Hopefully, a few of the non-pitchers are highly respected and will bring a good return.  Expect they also could/should include Sano in one of those deals, you know with the Twins retaining most/all of his salary and buyout.

[DJL44]

Beyond the players that need to be added there are players who are already on the 40 man roster but not near contributing: Enlow, Strotman, Henriquez and Contreras are unlikely to help the Twins this season or next but they could get a shot with a different team.

[Tibs]

How is Urbina already eligible for the Rule 5?

[Rosterman]

Roster crunch?

Twins have 48 on the roster right now. Bundy, Cotton, Coulombe, Duffey, Megill, Romero, Smith, Stashak, Strotman, Thielbar, Sanchez, Hamilton, Godoy, Sano, Correa, Contreras, Garlick could all be jettisoned, if need be. 

And, once well, the Twins MUST remove Donbak from the 40-man. Before he can just become a free agent. No team will pick up his contract as is. Give him most of next season in the minors if nmeed be as a non-40 man guy.

Smeltzer, with his next call up, will determine his place in the organization.

Unfortunately, even with their dismal 2022 seasons, the Twins will be forced to keep Balazovic, Sands, Henriquez on the 40-man for another season with hopes they can turn it around, or be (Henriquez) processed into dynamite relief work. Not sure what to do with Enlow. But fear a team would grab him, then waiver him themselves.

Balazovic, for example, would become a minor league free agent if the Twins put him on waivers and no one claimed him. Is there still enough promise to give it another season?

Wood-Richardson, Canterino and Varland would pretty much have to be elevated to AAA ball if another team would be interested in claiming them. Too many "ifs" drafting a rotation arm from AA. Speakng of AAA ball, Sisk and Schulfer need consideration for adding to the 40-man.

Wallner would basically replace Garlick, who you could resign to a minor league contract...again.

Jair Camargo and Wander Javier are two players that will be minor league free agents. Considering the lack of catching, is Camargo a better prospect add than keeping, say, Hamilton? Chris Williams will also be Rule 5 eligible.

Sadly arms like Bryan Sammons and Jordan Gore havep itched themselves out of the organization. But the Twins have to give consideration to Kody Fundeburk, along with Varland, Woods-Richardson and Canterino.

Would Julien be grabbed? Steer. Helman. Don't forget Palacios...as the Twins will be looking for a short-term shortstop replacement for 2023 until Lewis is ready.

Looking at ALL the names listed above - well, you can only have so many guys on the 40-man who can't break spring camp, let alone stay in the minors all year (i.e. 2022 we saw Henriquez, Balazovic, Enlow, Strotman - all questionable for when they could reach the majors in 2023).

And IF you look at any of the above names basically being replaced by a major league roster player, or another prospect that the trading team throws in that the Twins will also have to protect (see Henriquez), well, if you don't have room for them in major league plans for 2023, let alone even 2024...fair game in the trading amrket...as you will have another 5-10 names to consider next season, not to mention ALL the guys the Twins like to sign for AAA/AA rosters from other discards.

Go and trade wildly. If you are playing for today, the players you look at to be on the roster tomorrow will quickly be repalced by other names.

[nicksaviking]

7 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

So trade Simone for a decent pitcher after we traded Berrios for him?   I don't know why we continue to fool ourselves into believing they will make a decent trade or even a blockbuster trade.  They show no signs of keeping Correa.  I have a hard time believing they want to improve the team at all.  Eventually you would think this would really hurt revenue which is $268 million,  salaries 137 + operating expenses.  If they really wanted a winning team they would have kept Berrios, go all out on Correa and adding another above average starter and IMO a whole new bull pen or at least have a good closer.  TEAM IS WORTH 1.39 BILLION.

What signs are you hoping for? I mean, singing him in the first place was a bigger sign that they wanted him more than any of the other 29 teams. 

And knock it off about this not wanting to improve the team nonsense. People's jobs are constantly on the line in this regard. This is just petty, petulant and clearly untrue. 

[nicksaviking]

Unless Alex Isola absolute cannot catch, the 29 other clubs would be crazy to let him survive the Rule 5 draft.

I'd not count out any of that 2019 draft class that reaches AA either. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I agree with most opinions in this thread.  Trade some of these for MLB help now rather than lose them in the Rule 5 draft.

Question, Is there a limit of players that teams can draft from one team in the Rule 5 draft?  I.e. would we only lose only one or a few of these or could we lose many in a single draft?

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Question, Is there a limit of players that teams can draft from one team in the Rule 5 draft?  I.e. would we only lose only one or a few of these or could we lose many in a single draft?

No. I think the Pirates lost 5 guys one season (which was inexcusable because their MLB team was awful).

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No. I think the Pirates lost 5 guys one season (which was inexcusable because their MLB team was awful).

Thanks for the clarification.  All the more reason to trade some for the stretch run.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Beyond the players that need to be added there are players who are already on the 40 man roster but not near contributing: Enlow, Strotman, Henriquez and Contreras are unlikely to help the Twins this season or next but they could get a shot with a different team.

I would say Enlow and Henriquez would still be considered prospects with higher ceilings and would stay on the 40-man in 2023 a la Vallimont. I’m not sure either Contreras or Strotman make it through 2022 on the 40-man roster. 

[MABB1959]

55 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

What signs are you hoping for? I mean, singing him in the first place was a bigger sign that they wanted him than any of the other 29 teams. 

And knock it off about this not wanting to improve the team nonsense. People's jobs are constantly on the line in this regard. This is just petty, petulant and clearly untrue. 

2 good starting pitchers, a closer and dependable bullpen to start with.  Getting Correa for just one year?  There is really nothing left after him.  Plus they can afford all of these. I don't know what team you have been watching for the last 10 years but it is always hoping for prospects to be ready AND contribute or signing a veteran on the last leg of their careers hoping to get a decent year.

[Omgbenji]

Whoa, 2019 draftees are eligible already? You don’t get much time to develop them before a 40 man decision do you?

[FlyingFinn]

43 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

but it is always hoping for prospects to be ready

Like Kirilloff and Miranda have been playing lately............

[Loosey]

Who are the current 40 man roster guys that are on the bubble to be taken off to make room for the guys above, but would have value to other teams in a trade?  

[Danchat]

I'd protect the first 6 (losing Urbina wouldn't be much of a blow, he's barely even played in the minors and is years away from relevance). Isola is a near-lock for me, as prospect catchers are a premium and as nicksaviking said, there's zero chance he makes it through the R5 draft. And we also have zero catching depth...

One other name I'd consider is Sean Mooney. He numbers remind me a bit of Bailey Ober and Tyler Wells, and it'd hurt to lose another pitching prospect for nothing. I also wonder if Sisk or Schulfer would get picked up in the draft, but probably aren't good enough to be protected.

[Rosterman]

2 hours ago, Omgbenji said:

Whoa, 2019 draftees are eligible already? You don’t get much time to develop them before a 40 man decision do you?

Yep, usually these are college-age guys who should be at AA. But the joy is that few players are drafted in AA. So you can egt another season out of them before someone notices.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I'd protect the first 6 (losing Urbina wouldn't be much of a blow, he's barely even played in the minors and is years away from relevance). Isola is a near-lock for me, as prospect catchers are a premium and as nicksaviking said, there's zero chance he makes it through the R5 draft. And we also have zero catching depth...

One other name I'd consider is Sean Mooney. He numbers remind me a bit of Bailey Ober and Tyler Wells, and it'd hurt to lose another pitching prospect for nothing. I also wonder if Sisk or Schulfer would get picked up in the draft, but probably aren't good enough to be protected.

Yeah, Mooney looks really under-the-radar.

Still plenty of season left for Headrick, Prato, Gibson-Long and Lawyerson get hot and make us sweat too.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I'd protect the first 6 (losing Urbina wouldn't be much of a blow, he's barely even played in the minors and is years away from relevance). Isola is a near-lock for me, as prospect catchers are a premium and as nicksaviking said, there's zero chance he makes it through the R5 draft. And we also have zero catching depth...

One other name I'd consider is Sean Mooney. He numbers remind me a bit of Bailey Ober and Tyler Wells, and it'd hurt to lose another pitching prospect for nothing. I also wonder if Sisk or Schulfer would get picked up in the draft, but probably aren't good enough to be protected.

Good shout out on Sisk there.  A lefty who has looked pretty good all year and now at AAA. He might even get a callup yet before this year is done especially with Thielbar on the shelf.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

One other name I'd consider is Sean Mooney. He numbers remind me a bit of Bailey Ober and Tyler Wells, and it'd hurt to lose another pitching prospect for nothing. I also wonder if Sisk or Schulfer would get picked up in the draft, but probably aren't good enough to be protected.

Not to get to far off topic but remember last year when people were losing their minds because the Twins traded Ynoa and Gil and how they could have been the savior to the 22 rotation? Kind of amazing nobody seems to be anywhere near as upset over losing Wells in the rule 5 to Baltimore. And it is crazy that he as a career WAR of 2.5 which is higher than Ober's (1.5) - (To be fair he is almost a year older)

Back on topic, to me after reading all the messages and seeing all the prospect names that have been mentioned, it seems the Twins have somewhere between 10 - 20 guys they could easily trade for relief pitching help without hurting the "pipe line"

 

[tony&rodney]

Trade, trade, trade.

[Major League Ready]

I think these 10 guys come off for sure at the end of the season ....

Archer / Bundy / Duffey / Smith / Sanó / Godoy / Correa / Contreras / Urshela / Sanchez and any of these 6 guys could be off ...

Cano / Strotman / Cotton / Romero / Henriquez / Pagan 

They probably won't non-tender Pagan but they might.  With additions I would expect they need to clear 16 spots so it makes perfect sense they trade 2 or 3 guys of the 6 above or players among those who will need to be added at the end of the year.  Makes a lot more sense than losing a couple guys for nothing.
 

[PatPfund]

All of the players mentioned in the OP are viable trade assets of varying value. Sure, trade them if that helps the team (especially in getting a top arm), but there really is no "crunch", so don't trade now just to trade, or trade to fix a problem that doesn't exist yet. (We can also deal in a more measured atmosphere after the season and before the Rule 5 draft if needed.)

When Mr Froemming posted a video on this topic (and I highly recommend his YouTube channel TFTwins), I looked at the 40-man including the 60-day IL, and identified something like 18 players who are likely to leave (like Correa), have their contracts run out (lots and lots of those, and they drop off the 40 immediately after the season), need to step up their games to prove they need protecting (like Strotman, Sands or Dobnak), or are just unlikely to be picked (like Stashak or Coulombe). 

It's worth keeping in mind that right now, the Twins farm system isn't considered elite, and maybe not even top half. We love and see the potential in many of these players, but it is far likelier that teams gamble their roster spots on higher rated prospects from another system. We can protect most of the elites, and the rest is part of player movement. (We'll have a chance to pick up players as well.)