Breaking Bard: Analyzing a Top Relief Target for the Twins

[Nash Walker]

The Twins’ bullpen troubles are well-documented, and if they hope to contend in the second half and into the postseason, they’ll need to add at least one high-leverage reliever. Their best option resides in Colorado. 

 

Daniel Bard’s journey back to the big leagues is an incredible one. Once a first-round pick and heralded as a top relief prospect, Bard ceased throwing strikes in 2012, and his career looked to be over by the time he was 28. Seven years later, Bard, now 37, returned to the majors two years after he announced his retirement. 

Bard was solid for the Rockies in the Covid season, posting a 3.65 ERA while striking out 27 in 24 2/3 innings. Bard struggled to follow up his strong year in 2021, as walk issues re-surfaced and his ERA ballooned to 5.21. This season, he’s posting the best numbers of his career outside of his breakout campaign in 2010. 

Bard has a sterling 2.02 ERA in 35 2/3 innings. He’s striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faces and ranks fourth among qualified relievers in opponent’s average (.143). He ranks in the 99th percentile in both expected batting average and slugging percentage. He’s an elite barrel avoider and has converted 20 of 22 saves for Colorado. 

Like most standout relievers, Bard works with an upper-90s fastball. It’s a turbo sinker that averages 98 mph, and he pairs it with an elite high-spin slider. Right-handed batters are hitting .113/.250/.208 (.458 OPS) against Bard, with one homer in 64 plate appearances. Lefties haven’t fared much better, hitting .167/.268/.278 in 82 plate appearances. 

When Bard’s not striking guys out, they’re usually grounding out. He has a top-15 groundball rate among qualified relievers (56.6%). If added to the Twins’ bullpen, they’d boast two relievers with some of the best power repertoires in baseball. 

Bard’s stuff is electric, but his walk issues of the past aren’t entirely gone. Bard is still walking 12% of batters, and his spotty command is one reason his FIP is 1.51 runs higher than his ERA. The other is that he has the sixth lowest BABIP of any qualified reliever (.185). He gets incredible movement on his mostly two-pitch toolbox, but he doesn’t always get the ball over the plate. 

Bard is a rental reliever, meaning he’ll be a free agent following this season. The Twins are much more likely to pursue a rental than a controllable reliever, given their tendency to invest less in the bullpen and more in other areas. The cost shouldn’t be exorbitant. 

There’s more than one intriguing reliever available on the market, but when you combine Bard’s stuff with his results in 2022, it’s easy to get excited about his potential fit. He can either set up for Duran or close himself and would probably do both as a Twin. 

Let’s set up a mock bullpen scenario with Bard in the picture. Joe Ryan goes six strong, allowing three runs, and leaves with a 4-3 lead. The Twins turn to Griffin Jax or Caleb Thielbar in the seventh (depending on matchups), Bard in the eighth, and Duran in the ninth. That sounds a lot better than the current situation. 

What do you think about Rockies' closer Daniel Bard? Comment below!

 

View full article

[Whitey333]

Interesting possibilty.  Well researched!  On one hand he's definitely better than most of the members of our current bullpen.  On the other hand he represents the philosophy of the current Twins FO.  He's been an often injured pitcher with an aging arm and cones cheap.  Twins seem to go for cheap when it comes to pitching.  Could that be why our bullpen is one of the statistically poorest in all of baseball?  They may as well give up a lower level prospect or two and give him a chance.  But I would like to see them go after someone more accomplished.

[Otaknam]

It’s a likely scenario and makes sense. They wouldn’t have to give up much, probably a low A or high A prospect for a short term rental. The Twins pitching isn’t going to get them far in the playoffs if they make it that far. So don’t give up the farm to maybe win the first round of the playoffs. However, the Correa signing does make me wonder if the FO might take a bigger swing at someone,  But after the Paddock injury it can’t be a top starting pitcher who has arm troubles that show up after the trade. 

[Steve71]

Sabato for 8 weeks of Bard.  Make it so.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

33 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

Sabato for 8 weeks of Bard.  Make it so.

Good post. Sabato may do well in Colorado. 

[RJA]

I would be in favor of adding Bard.  He is having a good year, he is on an expiring contract which means his prospect cost will not be high, and he has experience closing and pitching in high leverage situations.  Perfect fit in my opinion.

[tony&rodney]

Sure, why not. Maybe Colorado sees Cavaco, Sabato, or Severino as fair trade. It is tough to know what the Rockies would ask in return.

[PatPfund]

Bard would be a good and affordable pickup. I'm hoping, though, that a front-line starter is added as well, pushing someone decent out of the rotation and into the 'pen. The thought of Thielbar pitching high-leverage playoff situations (he just injured himself while finally getting his ERA under 5 for the first time since April) makes me weep in advance.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Otaknam said:

It’s a likely scenario and makes sense. They wouldn’t have to give up much, probably a low A or high A prospect for a short term rental. The Twins pitching isn’t going to get them far in the playoffs if they make it that far. So don’t give up the farm to maybe win the first round of the playoffs. However, the Correa signing does make me wonder if the FO might take a bigger swing at someone,  But after the Paddock injury it can’t be a top starting pitcher who has arm troubles that show up after the trade. 

Not really meant for you, but it fits my narrative didn't the Twins give up the farm to compete this year with trading Petty and spending 35 million on Correa? So if that didn't get the Twins were they want to be isn't selling the best thing for the twins (Kepler, Gray, Correa, maybe Pagen and Theilbar, and really not anybody named Buxton, AK, Larnach, Lewis, Winder, Ober, and Ryan)

Or do the Twins have to go even further in, since they decided have already spent a first round pick and 35 million and they are 3 games up on second?

I do agree with you selling the farm isn't the way to go I am completely against trading for a starting pitcher, I don't believe they would change their usage of a new pitcher any different than they treat their current starters, but the real question is what does selling the farm really mean?

Is trading 2 two top 10 prospects and 2 top 20 prospects (between 10 - 20) and lets say 3 outside of the top 20 selling the farm? Is trading Lewis the farm? It would be interesting what people thinking trading the farm means?

Now I believe the Twins could trade, Strotman, Enlow, Cavaco, Sands, Sabato, Varland, Henriquez, Steer and Wallner for example and not really effect the Twins going forward the next few years.

[DocBauer]

Bard or Robertson from the Cubs are my top two as an add, WITH another solid, 7-8th inning arm with experience, regardless of which arm he uses. I understand Bard and Robertson are long in the tooth, but they are experienced, getting the job done, and shouldn't cost much as rentals.

I think rentals may be the smartest way to go, at least for 1 of the 2 arms that are probably needed. Nothing says you can't re-sign a rental. And even with or without a re-sign, you "re-set" the table for 2023 where you look at further trades and FA, as well your system, and then still have a short term re-sign available.

Think 2019 when the Twins grabbed Dyson and Romo. Unfortunately, Dyson ended up hurt and a headcase. But if Dyson hadn't been hurt, and not a problem, the Twins probably bring back BOTH. So rentals are not a bad option.

[tony&rodney]

What would it take to pry away Lopez from the Orioles?

[nicksaviking]

Bard is having a good year, but he wasn't good last year and his walk numbers are ugly. His hits/9 innings is a ridiculous 4.8, most years it's 8-9.5. If you get that Bard with the high number of hits and high number of walks, you just got another Emilio Pagan.

[Doctor Gast]

Bard is my 1st choice. But delusional CO think they're still a good competing team and want to extend Bard. My hope is they wake up and make Bard & Marquez both available

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Bard is having a good year, but he wasn't good last year and his walk numbers are ugly. His hits/9 innings is a ridiculous 4.8, most years it's 8-9.5. If you get that Bard with the high number of hits and high number of walks, you just got another Emilio Pagan.

I agree. Bard isn't what I'd be looking to add.

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Bard is having a good year, but he wasn't good last year and his walk numbers are ugly. His hits/9 innings is a ridiculous 4.8, most years it's 8-9.5. If you get that Bard with the high number of hits and high number of walks, you just got another Emilio Pagan.

This is my concern with Bard.