Week in Review: Back in Business

[Nick Nelson]

Byron Buxton and Luis Arraez did their thing at the All-Star Game, while the rest of the Twins got a full five days off in the middle of the season before returning – with gusto! – in Detroit.

The lack of meaningful action didn't mean a lack of injury news (including a Buxton-related development), nor did it silence the buzz and speculation as a crucial trade deadline looms.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/18 through Sun, 7/24
***
Record Last Week: 2-0 (Overall: 52-44)
Run Differential Last Week: +12 (Overall: +40)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 95 | MIN 8, DET 4: Twins Come Out of Break with Convincing Win
Game 96 | MIN 9, DET 1: Bats Break Out Late to Complete Short Sweep

NEWS & NOTES

Miguel Sanó's rehab stint concluded with a bang in St. Paul on Saturday, when the slugger went 3-for-3 with a walk and home run to round out a 12-game stretch between rookie ball and Triple-A in which he slashed .333/.422/.795 with five home runs. 

He's ready for another shot. Are the Twins inclined to give it to him?

For all their pitching troubles, the Twins have been pretty well set offensively and don't have an obvious opening in the lineup (or even on the roster) for Sanó. If they want to accommodate his return, they can probably use him semi-regularly at first base or DH while dropping Gilberto Celestino from the bench. An IL move for Max Kepler, who came out of Sunday's game, would also create room.

I suspect one of those things will happen when the deadline for a decision arrives on Tuesday, because the long-stagnating Twins need a spark that he's uniquely equipped to provide. Still, it's no guarantee we'll see Sanó in a Twins uniform again. There's a very realistic chance they DFA him or trade him for peanuts and move on.

Ahead of their game in Detroit on Saturday, the Twins placed Caleb Thielbar on the injured list with a hamstring strain and recalled right-hander Yennier Canó. It sounds like Thielbar got hurt in the last game before the break, and the team hoped he'd have enough time off to be ready for action, but that wasn't the case. He's a sneaky big loss in this bullpen because Thielbar has vastly out-pitched his underwhelming ERA.

We also learned on Saturday that Byron Buxton would miss the entire Detroit series after receiving a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection in his right knee on Wednesday to aid healing. The timing is interesting, as it suggests Buxton and the Twins decided to delay this planned procedure until after his All-Star Game appearance. 

That decision exposed his knee to further risk in an exhibition, while potentially costing him one or more meaningful games for the Twins, who are guarding a pretty narrow lead in the AL Central. But it also meant giving Buck an opportunity to go to Los Angeles and showcase himself as a star – boy did he.

HIGHLIGHTS

If you had to succinctly explain why Buxton and Luis Arraez were in the All-Star Game on Tuesday, it would be this: Buxton has been the king of game-changing home runs, and Arraez has been the king of finding his way on base. 

They both brought these qualities out on the national stage.

Buxton earned MVP consideration by hitting the go-ahead homer following a game-tying two-run blast from the actual MVP, Giancarlo Stanton. It was a classic showing of Buxton's incredible quick-twitch ability, as he turned on a fastball at his eyes from Tony Gonsolin and launched it for a no-doubter. 

Arraez's big moment in the All-Star Game was not as flashy as Buxton's, but no less indicative of his strengths as a player. After very uncharacteristically striking out on three pitches in his first plate appearance, Arraez came up against fireballing Cardinals reliever Ryan Helsley, who had a 0.69 ERA and held opponents to a .109 average in the first half. Helsley had struck out 57 batters in 39 innings.

Arraez fell behind 0-2 in the count. He then flicked away two fastballs, clocked at 103 and 101 MPH. On the next pitch, Helsley came with a curveball – a pitch he'd thrown 52 times this year without giving up a hit. Arraez stroked it into right field for a single. You can't make it up.

Staying on brand, Arraez opened his second half with a three-hit game in Detroit – his 10th of the season – and he added another hit and walk on Sunday. He's slashing .341/.413/.445. 

Arraez opened the scoring in Saturday's eight-run outburst from the offense, which served as a nice palette cleanser after the Twins were shut out by Chicago to close out the first half. Carlos Correa joined the festivities by hitting a home run and nearly adding another (Akil Badoo made a nice play at the wall.)

The runs kept pouring in on Sunday, with the bats breaking out late in a 9-1 laugher. José Miranda collected three hits to lead the way as Minnesota took advantage of poor pitching and defense from the last-place Tigers.

Having started the opener in the first half, it was only fitting for Joe Ryan to start the first game of the second half. He looked as good Saturday as he did on Opening Day, holding the Tigers to one run over 5 ⅔ innings with seven strikeouts. The righty improved to 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA – the Twins have gone 10-5 in his starts.

Equally encouraging, if not more so, was Sonny Gray's effort the following day. The veteran's slump heading into the break was a major concern, but Gray was in frontline form on Sunday – albeit against a very bad team. He struck out seven and allowed two hits over six frames.

I am of the opinion that the Twins need to add one more starter at or above the level of Ryan and Gray in order to be a viable threat in the postseason. But at the very least, they'll need those two pitching like they're capable of. This series in Detroit was a very good sign on that front. We'll see if they can keep it going with tougher competition ahead.

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins might have come out of the break with a couple of convincing wins, but that wasn't gonna stop the bullpen from rearing its ugly head. 

Minnesota's massive lead on Saturday was mildly threatened in the eighth as Detroit mounted a three-run rally against Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill, who were both extremely wild. For as good as Moran – and to a lesser extent Megill – has looked at times, their frequent lapses into the no-control zone make them impossible to trust as high-leverage relievers down the stretch, or especially into the playoffs.

Even on Sunday, when the bullpen seemingly had a very good showing with one hit allowed over three scoreless innings, the process was hardly impressive. Griffin Jax, Jharel Cotton and Joe Smith combined to strike out zero of 10 batters faced while inducing just two swings and misses (both from Jax) on 39 pitches. That's not a good formula for getting results, especially against better teams.

The glaring inadequacy of this bullpen is too stark to ignore, even on good days like the past couple. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

The big focus from now until August 2nd will be the trade market. I wrote last week about the deceivingly complicated decision facing the Twins as the deadline approaches – a first-place team that needs to make additions, but may not be in the best position for an aggressive push given the extent of those needs.

We'll likely begin to see some trade activity fire up in the coming week, although the majority of big moves will shake out in the 48 hours or so leading up the deadline next Tuesday. Will the Twins front office strike early? 

LOOKING AHEAD

Minnesota's midsummer respite extends into a light first week following the All-Star break, with two off days bookending a two-game series in Milwaukee. Good news for Buxton as he works back from the PRP injection. From there it's off to San Diego for three games against Taylor Rogers and the Padres. 

This next week will be a good test for the well-rested Twins, with five games against very strong NL opponents. I'll be in San Diego to catch a couple of the weekend games at Petco Park, and am very excited to cross that stadium off my list! 

TUESDAY, 7/26: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. TBD
WEDNESDAY, 7/27: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Corbin Burnes
FRIDAY, 7/29: TWINS @ PADRES –  RHP Joe Ryan v. LHP Blake Snell
SATURDAY, 7/30: TWINS @ PADRES – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Joe Musgrove
SUNDAY, 7/31: TWINS @ PADRES – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Sean Manaea

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[mikelink45]

Nice reflection.  Let's hope that giving up the Detroit series means that Byron is ready for the rest of the season.  I agree on pitching.  With WInder going down what do we have after Ryan and Gray?  It is not a good playoff recipe.  

It will be interesting to see how Sano fits in - Kepler to IL is the perfect short term solution, but right now the Gordon, Celestino, Kepler OF looks really good.  

[Blyleven2011]

Good read nick ....

A good sweep of Detroit is sweet  too ...

[rv78]

Was nice to come out of the 2 game set with Detroit on the plus side of both games. Had they lost 1 or both games with Buxton not being able to play it wouldn't have looked like a good decision to have him unavailable. As it turned out they didn't need him. 

[RpR]

They have San Diego and Toronto coming up, plus two more games against the Dodgers, if they let the Dodger stomp on them again, if I split a bet on the Twins, it would be against.

[Doctor Gast]

Detroit & MN look like 2 different teams from the last time they played. DET looked really terrible.

[MTV]

This bullpen needs 2, maybe 3 more improvements. Duffey has been better, Jax, Megill, and Moran have been reliable, and Duran still is phenomenal. But Cotton and Smith are struggling and Thielbar just got injured. Alcala could be back soon but you still have glaring holes in high-end situations.

[JimPohlad1]

Expected wins against Detroit. Cant be anything but satisfied this weekend though. Poor Kepler was extremely unlikely but if Byron was playing you know he would’ve gotten clocked and been on the IL for weeks. 
 

Will feel bad for Celestino too when he gets optioned for Miguel Sano. Hopefully Sano can prove he isn’t worth the DFA. 
 

Lastly, Flash looked great in center today, but I do not like him there normally. Celestino is much stronger there albeit with a weaker bat and more options. 

[h2oface]

If Buxton had been a Yankee, he wins the MVP, or if Stanton had hit the game winning solo homer and Buxton the two run tying homer, you know that Stanton would have still won the MVP. Usually, the winning homer is the MVP of the All-Star game. I guess this time, for all the deniers, RBI proves meaningful and interesting.

[PopRiveter]

I am 100% convinced the Twins need to give Sano some PA’s to see if he has a run in him.

I am 100% convinced they may not do so.

I am 100% convinced he could hit .100/.100/.250 if they do.

I am way more interested in watching this play out than I am seeing whatever happens at the trade deadline. I know they need relievers. Blah blah blah. That is just so boring.

[bighat]

30 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

I am 100% convinced the Twins need to give Sano some PA’s to see if he has a run in him.

I am 100% convinced they may not do so.

I am 100% convinced he could hit .100/.100/.250 if they do.

I am way more interested in watching this play out than I am seeing whatever happens at the trade deadline. I know they need relievers. Blah blah blah. That is just so boring.

Totally agree haha.

Yeah, I think they kinda have to give him a shot...can you imagine if he catches a hot streak? That would be such a major boost for this team.

Then again, how long of a leash do you give Sano? Let's say he plays three games in a row and goes 0-for-12 with 7 K's? What now?

It's quite the pickle, and everyone will be on the edge of their seats for every Sano AB - if he gets the chance.

[Thebigalguy]

If Kepler's toe needs healing, bring in Sano and see what he's got. Otherwise, adios, it was sure good to know you. And I mean that, from the bottom of my heart, when he was good. But when he was bad, he was bad. I hope whatever he had at his worst wasn't catching, because Buxton's average in July was way under the Mendoza line. Their Method acting yields big bombs and good surprises, but it sure would be nice to have stars who are methodical and consistent, a power-hungry version of Arraez.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins need to make consistent hard contact and Miranda, Kirilloff, Polanco, Kepler, and Correa can follow the success of Arraez in doing so, even if they are not expected to reach Luis' lofty contact status. These guys have excellent batting skills and will carry them  through the season. Look for Gordon to improve as well. Bats will lead this team. Falvey needs to add at least two pitchers via trade. 

[PopRiveter]

4 hours ago, bighat said:

Totally agree haha.

Yeah, I think they kinda have to give him a shot...can you imagine if he catches a hot streak? That would be such a major boost for this team.

Then again, how long of a leash do you give Sano? Let's say he plays three games in a row and goes 0-for-12 with 7 K's? What now?

It's quite the pickle, and everyone will be on the edge of their seats for every Sano AB - if he gets the chance.

This situation wouldn't be nearly so intriguing if it weren't so wildly uncertain. It is so amplified since he's (potentially) coming back to high-stakes baseball as we enter a pennant push. I can equally imagine him sinking the ship or absolutely turbo-charging this lineup. 

Either way, I sure am a lot more interested than I was at this point last season. Isn't it cool that we arent't stuck this year just anticipating what sort of return our losing team may get for trading away productive veterans?

2022>2021

 

[Nick Nelson]

6 hours ago, bighat said:

Totally agree haha.

Yeah, I think they kinda have to give him a shot...can you imagine if he catches a hot streak? That would be such a major boost for this team.

Then again, how long of a leash do you give Sano? Let's say he plays three games in a row and goes 0-for-12 with 7 K's? What now?

It's quite the pickle, and everyone will be on the edge of their seats for every Sano AB - if he gets the chance.

Personally I'd give him the full month of August with semi-regular playing time to prove himself. If he hasn't shown you convincingly by the start of September he can play a valuable role, DFA him and move on with your postseason group.

[bighat]

2 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Personally I'd give him the full month of August with semi-regular playing time to prove himself. If he hasn't shown you convincingly by the start of September he can play a valuable role, DFA him and move on with your postseason group.

Yes....but like I said, what if he goes 2-for-26 in his first 8 games and the Twins go 1-7 over that span?

Ideally you could give Sano the entire month of August to right himself, but the Twins don't have the breathing room and can't really afford to do that if things start slipping. Like it or not, Sano is going to be in a pressure cooker when he returns.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Personally I'd give him the full month of August with semi-regular playing time to prove himself. If he hasn't shown you convincingly by the start of September he can play a valuable role, DFA him and move on with your postseason group.

Semi-regular playing time at whose expense?

Sano's ABs have to come at 1B or DH.

Who sits?

Miranda? 

Buxton's DH ABs? Arraez? 

 

[gil4]

13 hours ago, h2oface said:

If Buxton had been a Yankee, he wins the MVP, or if Stanton had hit the game winning solo homer and Buxton the two run tying homer, you know that Stanton would have still won the MVP. Usually, the winning homer is the MVP of the All-Star game. I guess this time, for all the deniers, RBI proves meaningful and interesting.

If MVP of an All-star game is meaningful, then RBI can be meaningful in determining it.  Stanton's HR did go farther, too, which might have factored into the vote (which is also commentary on how meaningful I think the vote is.)  

Anyway, I'm not seeing the NY bias in that vote. I probably would have voted for Stanton too (unless I could find a pitcher worth voting for.)

[Minny505]

Unless Kepler or Buxton end up on the IL as a result of their current injuries, Celestino needs to go down for his own good. He is not yet a great major leaguer, meaning he has struggled to make the latest necessary adjustments, and seems to need AAA time against lesser competition to figure it out and come back roaring.

In the meantime, Sano naturally takes his place on the 13 man. He plays DH when no one else is getting that partial day off. 

[Danchat]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Semi-regular playing time at whose expense?

Sano's ABs have to come at 1B or DH.

Who sits?

Miranda? 

Buxton's DH ABs? Arraez? 

 

Completely agree, though knowing this team, two of Arraez/Miranda/Garick/Kirilloff will probably hit the IL within the next week or two just because it seems like all of our roster crunches always get solved by other players getting hurt.

[MyramatSumoto]

Most likely, team leaders know better who to put where and who to rest. But sometimes it seems that in order for the team to work more smoothly, you need, as in business, succession planning consultants who can tell you maybe the only right direction for the team leaders to go. It's just that sometimes, a bit of turmoil can lead to unfortunate results. And then neither Gemini nor Stanton can help.

[Steve71]

Holy Lazarus thread, Batman!

[MyramatSumoto]

On 1/9/2023 at 11:24 AM, MyramatSumoto said:

Most likely, team leaders know better who to put where and who to rest. But sometimes it seems that in order for the team to work more smoothly, you need, as in business, succession planning consultants who can tell you maybe the only right direction for the team leaders to go. It's just that sometimes, a bit of turmoil can lead to unfortunate results. And then neither Gemini nor Stanton can help. I don't want to offend anyone, but sometimes at the end of the season you see the lapses that were made in the games.