Minnesota’s 3 Options with Carlos Correa

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Aichiman said:

The clubhouse is pretty pathetic right now.  

You've been invited in as a guest? 

Where do you get this hot take?

[Aichiman]

10 hours ago, rv78 said:

With the injury to Lewis the Twins hands are tied to Correa for the rest of this season. It would be nice to get something in return for him in a trade but not only does that send a bad message to other Free Agents that would consider coming to the Twins organization, I doubt they would get much in return anyway since he can just opt out of his contract regardless of who he is playing for. Not many teams are going to trade much for a half a season player even if it is a Correa. 

I also don't see the club trading for much help by the deadline, maybe 1 or 2 bullpen arms and that will be it. They've got 7 starters in Ryan, Gray, Bundy, Smeltzer, Archer, Winder, Ober for the 2nd half and possibly Maeda to finish the season with 2 or 3 of them going to the bullpen depending on what they do by the deadline. 

How does this send a bad message to other free agents.  Everyone knows (including other free agents) that the structure of his contract is essentially set up for either a one-year deal or an August 2nd team opt out.  It's really a simple choice between A and B.  If the team chooses B, how could any potential free agent be upset? 

[Aichiman]

10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lots of different opinions already. Love it.

The decision likely rests on a number of factors. Consider the following:

1, What is the probability that Correa is back next year by signing a long term deal? If so, what is the impact on our FA budget?

2. What moves do the Twins make to shore up our pitching, particularly in the bullpen, prior to the deadline?  How do those moves, or lack there of, impact our chances to make/advance in the playoffs.

3, What type of return would we get for Correa? Are we talking multiple solid prospects or is it just salary relief?

So it’s a bit like trying to solve a multi linear equation.

If the answers to #1, 2, and 3, are slim to none and slim just left town, none, and decent to strong - you trade him.

If the answers are high, a few solid additions, and not much, you keep him.

It’s the other scenarios where it gets trickier. 

"Multi linear equation,"  Love it!!

[Aichiman]

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You've been invited in as a guest? 

Where do you get this hot take?

"You've been invited in as a guest?"  What do you mean?  You can't see my name?

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Aichiman said:

"You've been invited in as a guest?"  What do you mean?  You can't see my name?

To the Twins clubhouse.  You seemed to know the mood in there.

[Aichiman]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

To the Twins clubhouse.  You seemed to know the mood in there.

The mood in the clubhouse, imho, is inconsequential unless it's reflected on the field.  If it's true, if it does show up on in their play, then judging by their July performance, the mood can't be all that great in the Twins clubhouse.  But if there is a disconnect, and they're all happy campers, who really should give a rats derriere about clubhouse camaraderie?   Maybe this is a philosophical question: does good clubhouse camaraderie beget good baseball?  Or does good baseball beget good clubhouse camaraderie?  Also, can a club with internal tensions and bad vibes play good ball?  And vice versa? 

[terrydactyls]

9 hours ago, JDubs said:

Legitimately what do you think teams are going to give up for less than half a season of Correa? Best case scenario, the Twins get a middling reliever of the type that's always available in the offseason for cheap anyway. They're not going to get anyone who's going to meaningfully help the team long term, but they would torpedo the current team. There's just no upside to it at all.

If you strongly believe he has no trade value, why would the Twins want to continue paying him a gigantic salary?  If he is worth thàt salary, then I would suspect that a legitimate world series contender (and I don't consider the Twins to be one) would ante up whatever it would take to get him.  If no acceptable offer surfaces, then hold onto him and hope for a positive outcome.

[nicksaviking]

I doubt option #2 is actually an option until the season is over. Unless Correa can somehow sense a long term injury happening, there’s no reason for him to talk extension until he can better predict what the off-season will hold.

Hold tight for now. Once the season ends, let Correa and Boras know they’d like to keep him around and they have tons of salary space to sign him, but they will not be left empty handed, so if Correa isn’t willing to make an early decision, the Twins will instead throw the cash at Turner, Bogaerts or Swanson. No hard feelings.

[Squirrel]

7 hours ago, Aichiman said:

Depending on what the other teams are asking for their players and what we can get by trading Correa and Sano, I'd lean towards rebuilding our farm system--especially our pitching--by trading both Correa and Sano.  To do this would be a clear cut move in one direction.  Even if it's unpopular, it's better than the hodgepodge whirlwind of bold moves--the signing of Correa--and hedging--the Rogers fiasco--that put us in this bind..

We will get nothing of significance for either for different reasons. The best option is to ride the year with Correa who adds much to this team, than trade him for not much. 

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So another OP about Correa? Must be a day ending in "Y".

But seriously, while stunned, pleased, excited by the very nature of Correa's signing, what's surprised me is my sudden fandom of the guy. He's just more than I thought he'd be. His defense is outstanding, as expected. His offense is great, as expected. But it's been the hard work and dedication and immediate leadership and team first attitude that  has surprised me. I am a HUGE fan and believer in Lewis, and I'd still love to have Correa back and see Lewis move positions as a result.

But there is no way he is being traded.

1] He's a part of a contending team that has a strong shot at the playoffs and a division championship that gets 3 games in the 1st round at hone. Who knows what happens. 

2] You send a really bad message to fans and teammates and just about everyone else by trading one of your best players while BEING in 1st place and in contention. 

3] What contending team has such a glaring hole at SS that they'd trade for him? What would you possibly get back for a 2 month rental...post season aside...consider he not only will declare FA, but would still cost about $11-12M for his rental?

Everyone needs to just STOP with the whole 10yr deal. Just because Texas did it, why didn't someone else do it last offseason? You automatically think because ONE TEAM did it, it will happen again? And secondly, even if the 10yr idea was asked/required, we're another year down the road. So 10yrs becomes 9yrs if you follow basic logic. The Yankees, to their credit considering their season, and Houston as well, balked at the 10yr and $350M idea. How does Texas look right now with almost $500M spent on a pair of top SS?

I believe the 3yr deal the Twins offered Correa was done in good faith, despite them knowing he was going to probably opt out. I think Correa is honest when he says he and his wife love being in Minnesota and would be open to an extension. And unless the Twins FO suddenly goes absolutely crazy with FA contracts, they have the financial flexibility to re-sign Correa for $30M plus, front loading the contract for the first 3yrs or so, on a 5yr deal. 6yrs is POSSIBLE, but puts him at 33yrs old in year 6. Just how good will he be at 32-33yrs old defensively? Hell, he might surprise! And the bat might still play! A 7th year is almost non-negotiable, unless the yearly $ numbers are a little lower and they can acceptably front load enough to make it happen. Remember, even though revenues will continue to climb, and the payroll looks really flexible for the next few years, the Twins WILL have to address arbitration increases and extensions for quality core players they want to keep.

Still think a 7+yr re-sign makes sense?

IF Correa and his family truly love being in Minnesota. IF Correa sees winning in the future for the Twins and wants to be a part of it. IF Correa doesn't have an ego issue and says, "how much is enough when I'm already rich". And IF nobody out there offers him 7-9yrs, willing to just eat the final years of his deal, as only a few teams can afford to do, then he might re-sign with the Twins.

5 or 6 years with his $ pro-rated the first few years, he can be back with the Twins on an extension. And I would be very, very happy with that!

Otherwise, he's gone. And I'll be 100% happy with a healthy Lewis manning SS for multiple years while the Twins figure out SS for at least the first half of 2023 between Gordon, Steer, Palacios, and whatever rental they might bring on board.

There occasionally are players that take less than the max they can get to be somewhere they really like.  However, those players are not represented by Scott Boras.  Lindor said no $300M+ was not enough and Soto just said $400M+ was not enough.  Judge who will be 31 next year just said not to $225M.  It's not completely impossible Correa would take a little less to stay here but him taking a significant discount, especially less year, is very wishful thinking.  Most players are going to fight for every dollar they can get.

Also ask yourself if Houston is a poorly run team and then ask yourself why a team very likely to be a top contender does not extend him.  They had the exact same situation in terms of a very good prospect that was ready.   Lewis has the most value at SS.  We have a very good young 3B, 2B is covered, he is not playing CF, and he has far less value as a corner OFer.  I think it would be far more impactful top spend the money on a front of the rotation SP and probably have money left over for a good BP arm. 

[JoeCool]

i don’t think we should trade Correa and hopefully we catch lightning in a bottle for the playoffs.

An extension is also very risky given his age and also his production is very solid, but could you imagine having over $30 million per season locked up if he declines like some of the other notable long term deals that sunk many teams? Think of Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, and the list goes on. Even look at the monster contracts handed out to Corey Seager or Javier Baez. The math seems very risky. The Twins made a very smart deal for Correa and his production is palatable for his short term and high annual value deal, but if it were greater than 5 years it could limit this team once his production drops off and it is likely.  Imagine the Angels with their buyer’s remorse for Albert Pujols? 
 

I think we roll the dice and if he walks we can still find a decent replacement and go after pitching with the $35 million he would have commanded. 

[Aichiman]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

We will get nothing of significance for either for different reasons. The best option is to ride the year with Correa who adds much to this team, than trade him for not much. 

You may be right.  And the more comments I read, the more inclined I am to ride it out with Correa.

[Thebigalguy]

It would be bad faith to trade Correa unless the team collapses. He's good in the clubhouse. It's all hands on deck for the rest of the year. I agree with those who point out the Twins won't get much for a rental. A first-place team doesn't throw in the towel by trading one of their stars. Boras is his agent and is also Lewis's agent. Given the latter's injuries, there's no certainty he can be the long answer at short. As for a long term deal, my guess is that Correa and Boras might be amenable to it if the market doesn't give them what they want, but won't sign on now to a (relatively) team-friendly contract. Look at the hardball Boras and Soto are playing. No, Correa is a Twin this year. Let's keep him and figure out the pitching.

[The Mad King]

The idea of trading him "so we don't lose him for nothing" doesn't appeal to me because we a) got him for nothing and b) I think they knew when they signed him that he could be one and done. They did their risk analysis. C) his trade value with the contract he has can't be that great. 

 

Ride him out for the season....

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Squirrel said:

We will get nothing of significance for either for different reasons. The best option is to ride the year with Correa who adds much to this team, than trade him for not much. 

I believe his partial no-trade becomes full after the World Series.  Boras thought of that.

[Squirrel]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I believe his partial no-trade becomes full after the World Series.  Boras thought of that.

Well, but he doesn't have a full no trade clause now, so that's what I'm going on; I'm not talking about trading him in the offseason but before the deadline ... isn't that what most are on about? And, that actually brings up another issue ... wonder who is on his list with his limited trade clause. That could also be in play if the Twins actually were thinking of trading him before deadline (which I don't think they will, because I think it would be a huge mistake to do so, no matter what our contention status is). If he opts in at the end of the season, I'm ecstatic. If he opts out ... WAAAAAAAA ... but it's what I expect, and am happy we had him for a the year we did

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

Well, but he doesn't have a full no trade clause now, so that's what I'm going on. And, that actually brings up another issue ... wonder who is on his list with his limited trade clause. That could also be in play if the Twins actually were thinking of trading him before deadline (which I don't think they will, because I think it would be a huge mistake to do so, no matter what our contention status is)

Sorry.  On second reading, you said "than." I read "then."  Never mind.

[Squirrel]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Sorry.  On second reading, you said "than." I read "then."  Never mind.

I misused a comma there, so, that added to the confusion

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I misused a comma there, so, that added to the confusion

O, kay.

[rv78]

21 hours ago, Aichiman said:

How does this send a bad message to other free agents.  Everyone knows (including other free agents) that the structure of his contract is essentially set up for either a one-year deal or an August 2nd team opt out.  It's really a simple choice between A and B.  If the team chooses B, how could any potential free agent be upset? 

If the Twins were out of the race for the division it wouldn't look bad but when they are in first place, bailing on the contract would definitely look bad. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

On 7/23/2022 at 4:15 PM, ziggy said:

Does anyone know for sure if #3 is even an option? I have not read C-4's contract but it would not surprise me if Boras insisted on a no trade or very limited trade clause.

No matter the answer, I would not trade him when the team is in first place.

No trade clause is for years 2 & 3,  he can be traded this first year to a handful of teams he has chosen. Not sure what the teams are.  I still say do not trade him.