Minnesota’s 3 Options with Carlos Correa

[Cody Christie]

With the trade deadline quickly approaching, the Twins have a decision to make with Carlos Correa. Here are the three options facing the team over the next two weeks.

 

Minnesota’s front office knew what it was doing when they signed Carlos Correa. He is one of baseball’s best players, and he brings playoff experience to an organization that has lost 18 straight postseason games. Both sides know that Correa will likely opt out of his contract at the season’s end so he can return to the free agent market. Even knowing all of this, three options are still on the table. 

Option 1: Keep Correa for the Stretch Run
Minnesota has surprised many by being at the top of the AL Central throughout the first half. Even with a recent slump, the Twins sit ahead of Cleveland and Chicago. Keeping Correa is the best way to win games during the 2022 season because the baseball playoffs can be a crapshoot, and it’s essential just to qualify for the postseason. Last season, the Braves won 88 games, but they added pieces at the deadline and got hot in October. Not every franchise can follow this mold, but it helps to get to the postseason with a healthy roster and the best players performing well.

Option 2: Sign Correa to a Long-Term Deal
According to the Star Tribune, the Twins have not engaged with Correa and his team on a long-term extension. It’s easy to see why the Twins would want to keep Correa as he helped shape a positive clubhouse culture this season. Earlier this season, Correa told Ken Rosenthal that he is open to an extension with the Twins. It will likely take a more significant contract than the 10-year, $325 million deal signed by Corey Seager last winter. As a franchise, Minnesota hasn’t handed out those types of contracts in the past, so it seems unlikely for a long-term deal to be reached unless the Twins do something out of character.

Option 3: Trade Correa Before the Deadline
Trading Correa before the deadline might shake up the clubhouse, but it avoids the team seeing him walk for nothing. It would allow the Twins to fill other needs on their roster or to rebuild a farm system that ranks in baseball’s bottom half. Finding a team willing to trade for Correa is also challenging, as many of baseball’s best teams already have a strong shortstop. Some possible teams looking for an upgrade include the Philadelphia Phillies or the St. Louis Cardinals. Also, Minnesota would be left with no clear shortstop replacement if Correa is dealt. Overall, the front office already made one unpopular trade by sending away the team’s closer before Opening Day. Can it withstand another unpopular move?

Realistically, the Twins should stick with option one because anything can happen in October. However, trading Correa makes sense if the front office doesn’t make additions before the trade deadline. Minnesota needs multiple relievers and a front-line starting pitcher to be taken seriously in the postseason. With an already depleted farm system, the front office might not be willing to trade away the prospect capital required to obtain those types of players. 

Which option do you feel the Twins should choose? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[farmerguychris]

I would have selected option 3 if Royce had stayed healthy and continued to play well.  Now, I think we gotta keep him and go for it this year (as long as we invest in our BP).  I know unlikely he returns, but until he opts out, I can always hope!

[terrydactyls]

If the front office cannot get a firm commitment from Correa to play in 2023, the my opinion is that they should trade him for as much as possible.  I do not think the current team is built to anywhere in the playoffs even if they add a couple relievers.  I think Palacios can handle SS next year until either Lewis is ready or a better option arises.

 

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Keep him for the stretch run, offer him a 5-6 year contract with 30+ AAV at the end of the year.  No 10-year offer.  Think Parise and Suter and look at the cap hell that the Wild is going through now.  If he takes that offer great, if not then we go to Lewis next year after a fill-in at the beginning of the year.

DO NOT trade him.  For one the opt outs would exist for any team that trades for him so they would not offer much.  Second, it sends a terrible signal to the clubhouse and to us fans.  It also limits who would come here as a FA in the future.  This should not be an option.

[blairpaul715]

I think stand pat. I don't want to trade any of our MLB ready players in a season where we have maybe a        1-5% chance of getting to the World Series. Keep Correa so we can hopefully enjoy a successful season. Make trades in off-season to supplement roster. Keep trying to build a system where we can become competitive year after year, and if you are 1 or 2 players away from a championship, then trade away from surplus you may have to go after a ring. 

[RJA]

One is the only option. Boras will not entertain any extension at this point. It would be crazy to do so. Trading him would be nuts as it would totally disrupt the clubhouse. And, they need him if they are going to make the postseason. 

[rv78]

With the injury to Lewis the Twins hands are tied to Correa for the rest of this season. It would be nice to get something in return for him in a trade but not only does that send a bad message to other Free Agents that would consider coming to the Twins organization, I doubt they would get much in return anyway since he can just opt out of his contract regardless of who he is playing for. Not many teams are going to trade much for a half a season player even if it is a Correa. 

I also don't see the club trading for much help by the deadline, maybe 1 or 2 bullpen arms and that will be it. They've got 7 starters in Ryan, Gray, Bundy, Smeltzer, Archer, Winder, Ober for the 2nd half and possibly Maeda to finish the season with 2 or 3 of them going to the bullpen depending on what they do by the deadline. 

[Karbo]

I for sure wouldn't trade him. From what I've read and heard he likes it here. I would start the negotiation for an extension. 10 years is probably too long but 6-8 years at 35mil a year may get it done. Keep Buck and Correa as a 1-2 punch to build around makes sense to me.

[dxpavelka]

No trade.  You got him to compete this year.  You're in position to do so.  Maybe you lose him in the off-season, maybe you don't.  He didn't cost you anything in terms of player capital.  If you have a good run maybe you figure out a way to keep him.  Trading him for prospects sets you back years.  A year ago we traded our best pitcher for AA prospects who to this day remain AA prospects. You brought Correa in to take a shot.  Take a shot.

[Nashvilletwin]

Lots of different opinions already. Love it.

The decision likely rests on a number of factors. Consider the following:

1, What is the probability that Correa is back next year by signing a long term deal? If so, what is the impact on our FA budget?

2. What moves do the Twins make to shore up our pitching, particularly in the bullpen, prior to the deadline?  How do those moves, or lack there of, impact our chances to make/advance in the playoffs.

3, What type of return would we get for Correa? Are we talking multiple solid prospects or is it just salary relief?

So it’s a bit like trying to solve a multi linear equation.

If the answers to #1, 2, and 3, are slim to none and slim just left town, none, and decent to strong - you trade him.

If the answers are high, a few solid additions, and not much, you keep him.

It’s the other scenarios where it gets trickier. 

[darin617]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

If the front office cannot get a firm commitment from Correa to play in 2023, the my opinion is that they should trade him for as much as possible.  I do not think the current team is built to anywhere in the playoffs even if they add a couple relievers.  I think Palacios can handle SS next year until either Lewis is ready or a better option arises.

 

 

Unless they can trade for a top tier starter and a solid closer just know that they will get knocked out by a wild card team right away. So trade him and just figure they paid 17M for a couple of prospects.

[lukeduke1980]

Unless they're getting a shortstop in return then there's no trade happening.  Like Seattle says we're going for it and includes JP Crawford with some pitching 

[tony&rodney]

Jermaine Palacios can play shortstop just fine, but I'm keeping Correa for the remainder of the year. The Twins need to have some record of holding free agents through their contracts. I expect Correa is gone next year but the odds are not zero that he could return for another year. The return for Correa would be negligible and the silence from the clubhouse would speak for itself. The Twins can and should add a few pitchers asap and I would think that we might expect more timely hitting for the remainder of the year from any number of our batters. Play out the schedule with C4 at shortstop.

[D.C Twins]

Using our heads, we should trade him (there is  O.O% chance of extension for you Animal House fans out there and a <5% chance of WS).

Using our hearts (and our inner 5-year-old need for short term results), we should keep him. 

Ultimately though, he will be kept because there simply won't be a huge market for him which drives a reasonable return (for the same reason he fell in our laps in the first place!).... which is totally OK!

 

[ashbury]

You won't get much for him in trade.  The three-year aspect of his contract, in case he gets hurt, assures that.  And if he doesn't get hurt, he's a short-term rental like any expiring contract. 

It's the worse of both worlds from the perspective of the acquiring team.  They would treat it as close to a salary dump, and offer one middling prospect in exchange.  The only reason another team offers anything at all is 1) he does bring value to a team during the post-season, and 2) the Twins will have borne the brunt of the contract risk already during the first two-thirds of the season.

All in all Correa's potential to contribute to the remainder of the Twins' season, including an unlikely post-season run, is worth more than some other team's Keoni Cavaco.

[FritzDahmus]

I also like Option #1. Keep him and get 3 more relief pitchers.

I don't think we need any starting pitching [ok...maybe to get to the playoffs] to maneuver you're way through the playoffs. Our starters are very good at going 4 or 5 innings using 80-100 pitches...and here is the key.....while allowing very few runs. We do not have a bullpen to win the next 4 or 5 innings. Think about it.....that's playoff baseball.

[JDubs]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If the front office cannot get a firm commitment from Correa to play in 2023, the my opinion is that they should trade him for as much as possible.

Legitimately what do you think teams are going to give up for less than half a season of Correa? Best case scenario, the Twins get a middling reliever of the type that's always available in the offseason for cheap anyway. They're not going to get anyone who's going to meaningfully help the team long term, but they would torpedo the current team. There's just no upside to it at all.

[Brandon]

With us being in contention Correa is not getting traded.  And I don’t want him to be traded.  We will get some pitching at the trade deadline.  So this post season will be fun.  
 

I hope we do try to extend him this offseason.  If nothing else then to help him make more cash at the new place. But an 8 year extension is reasonable.  If we go longer the AAV needs to drop in years 9 and 10.  And with the way inflation is going how long out do you want your contract?

[Whitey333]

Wow.  Lots of great comments that cover just about everything.  I do not think Twins will trade him.  They are in a tough spot but they put themselves there in part.  Assuming Correa walks after the season I would imagine you same people who said no to even think about trading him will roast the Twins for not trading him and at least get something.  I think Correa has been a good but not great addition.  He certainly hasn't played up to his previous superstar status   and definitely hasn't played up to being paid the highest infielder nor the more than 40% of twins payroll.  I fault the FO for not bolstering especially the pitching staff after spending all that money in Correa.  Why have such a player if you surround him with a minor league pitching staff?  Not quite sure what the Twins are for this team.  There is no guarantee this team even makes the playoffs.  I hope they do but this team has a lot of holes in it.

[Greg Nelson]

The twins need to trade for Frankie from Oakland and I forget the name of the second other pitcher in Arizona and they can fill up their bullpen with all these starters that have been injured throughout the season and possibly pick up Daniel Baird from Colorado.  You could move Kenta, Ober, Smeltzer, Winder, Archer to pair with Duran, Alcala, and McGill.  I think that would be a pretty good bullpen. Then you have Ryan, Gray, Frankie and the kid from Arizona as you're starting four starters.  The Yankees are rumored to be interested in trading for Juan Soto.  If I were the Twins, I would go and pick up Aaron Judge. And then make a serious run to meet the Yankees in the ALCS.

[Monticore]

Option #1. #2 isn't happening. And, #3 is insulting, hurts team morale, is just ridiculous 

[ziggy]

Does anyone know for sure if #3 is even an option? I have not read C-4's contract but it would not surprise me if Boras insisted on a no trade or very limited trade clause.

No matter the answer, I would not trade him when the team is in first place.

[Brushback101]

Trade for T. Rogers. You know, the San Diego boy that came out of nowhere...straight up. Maybe throw in Paddack.

 

[umterp23]

Let's say you lose next 5-6 games and are in 3rd place, trade would make sense if you can get high end quality in return and focus on '23

[DocBauer]

So another OP about Correa? Must be a day ending in "Y".

But seriously, while stunned, pleased, excited by the very nature of Correa's signing, what's surprised me is my sudden fandom of the guy. He's just more than I thought he'd be. His defense is outstanding, as expected. His offense is great, as expected. But it's been the hard work and dedication and immediate leadership and team first attitude that  has surprised me. I am a HUGE fan and believer in Lewis, and I'd still love to have Correa back and see Lewis move positions as a result.

But there is no way he is being traded.

1] He's a part of a contending team that has a strong shot at the playoffs and a division championship that gets 3 games in the 1st round at hone. Who knows what happens. 

2] You send a really bad message to fans and teammates and just about everyone else by trading one of your best players while BEING in 1st place and in contention. 

3] What contending team has such a glaring hole at SS that they'd trade for him? What would you possibly get back for a 2 month rental...post season aside...consider he not only will declare FA, but would still cost about $11-12M for his rental?

Everyone needs to just STOP with the whole 10yr deal. Just because Texas did it, why didn't someone else do it last offseason? You automatically think because ONE TEAM did it, it will happen again? And secondly, even if the 10yr idea was asked/required, we're another year down the road. So 10yrs becomes 9yrs if you follow basic logic. The Yankees, to their credit considering their season, and Houston as well, balked at the 10yr and $350M idea. How does Texas look right now with almost $500M spent on a pair of top SS?

I believe the 3yr deal the Twins offered Correa was done in good faith, despite them knowing he was going to probably opt out. I think Correa is honest when he says he and his wife love being in Minnesota and would be open to an extension. And unless the Twins FO suddenly goes absolutely crazy with FA contracts, they have the financial flexibility to re-sign Correa for $30M plus, front loading the contract for the first 3yrs or so, on a 5yr deal. 6yrs is POSSIBLE, but puts him at 33yrs old in year 6. Just how good will he be at 32-33yrs old defensively? Hell, he might surprise! And the bat might still play! A 7th year is almost non-negotiable, unless the yearly $ numbers are a little lower and they can acceptably front load enough to make it happen. Remember, even though revenues will continue to climb, and the payroll looks really flexible for the next few years, the Twins WILL have to address arbitration increases and extensions for quality core players they want to keep.

Still think a 7+yr re-sign makes sense?

IF Correa and his family truly love being in Minnesota. IF Correa sees winning in the future for the Twins and wants to be a part of it. IF Correa doesn't have an ego issue and says, "how much is enough when I'm already rich". And IF nobody out there offers him 7-9yrs, willing to just eat the final years of his deal, as only a few teams can afford to do, then he might re-sign with the Twins.

5 or 6 years with his $ pro-rated the first few years, he can be back with the Twins on an extension. And I would be very, very happy with that!

Otherwise, he's gone. And I'll be 100% happy with a healthy Lewis manning SS for multiple years while the Twins figure out SS for at least the first half of 2023 between Gordon, Steer, Palacios, and whatever rental they might bring on board.

 

 

 

 

[PatPfund]

Option 1 is the only option. The Twins are in first, the market is dubious at best (if even possible by contract), and the Twins are in first. And in case I missed it, the Twins are in first.

One of the most foolish things I've heard is that if Correa walks, we get nothing. Wrong. We get what we paid for, a chance to be competitive. The Twins are in first. We also get a championship player working with a lot of our up and coming players teaching and showing them how to be MLB players (just ask Miranda and Lewis). If we make the playoffs (likely even if we make no moves), we'll have a champion shortstop showing our historically bad post-season team how to prepare and play in that charged atmosphere.

Which is worth far more than anything we could possibly get from a trade. Which would be foolish anyway, because the Twins are in first.

 

[PatPfund]

FYI, after tonight, Duffey's ERA (3.86) is pretty close to that of Taylor Rogers (3.72).

[Otwins]

Rogers gave up a run tonight.  His is 3.86 also. He got his 28th save

[Aichiman]

Depending on what the other teams are asking for their players and what we can get by trading Correa and Sano, I'd lean towards rebuilding our farm system--especially our pitching--by trading both Correa and Sano.  To do this would be a clear cut move in one direction.  Even if it's unpopular, it's better than the hodgepodge whirlwind of bold moves--the signing of Correa--and hedging--the Rogers fiasco--that put us in this bind..

[Aichiman]

11 hours ago, RJA said:

One is the only option. Boras will not entertain any extension at this point. It would be crazy to do so. Trading him would be nuts as it would totally disrupt the clubhouse. And, they need him if they are going to make the postseason. 

The clubhouse is pretty pathetic right now.  Have you been watching them play of late?  Maybe the clubhouse needs some disruption.  It might do them some good.