Is there value in winning a playoff round?

[TwinsDr2021]

On 7/23/2022 at 10:38 AM, Major League Ready said:

  Was it worth it for the Rays to trade Ryan for Cruz? 

My company has an office in Tampa and talking to people that work there, nobody cares they gave up Ryan for Cruz, they laugh at me and others that say the Twins stole Ryan for a DH. Their reasons are Tampa went out a basically got the best hitter available which is awesome even if it didn't work out and Ryan is just another 5 inning pitcher and they are a dime a dozen in the Rays system, they care about the future rotation studs (who they know will be traded in the future, but they get a couple of years). They all say they pretty much hate the way Tampa goes about its business but they do have faith in the FO won't screw things up, most of them say they haven't been to a game in years but follow the team pretty closely. ( I know it is SSS but those are the only people I know if north Florida)

on that note can the Twins afford that kind of fan? One that pays attention from a far but never really dives head first in caring or spending money on them? I see most of my friends slowing going that route (ages 45-55) or already being there. No streaming option might be the biggest reason, but some say Twins don't really seem to care about winning big so why should they,

IMO the Twins need to make a splash this year, they have plenty of prospects subtracting a few will not hurt the future and if it does maybe this aren't the guys for the front office. I against getting a starter, because what good does it do to go out and get a guy and ask him to face 21/22 guys unless of course they get a guy and they let him actually pitch, but that isn't likely. Maybe a Happ/Robertson trade with the cubs, that is splashy and makes the Twins look like they are trying to do something.

[Reptevia]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There is clearly value to the Twins in winning a round of playoffs. That's more revenue to the team selling expensive tickets and getting new season ticket holders to sign up. Each sellout playoff game brings in an extra $5-10M in revenue. It's also more tickets sold in September.

Realistically, no team has a good shot at winning the World Series, especially if they aren't the 1 or 2 seed. 3-6 seeds have at best a 6% chance of winning it all. No team should mortgage it's future for a 6% chance but it's definitely worth going to the playoffs for the extra $20M in revenue.

I'll put it another way - winning a playoff series 3 seasons in a row is nearly as lucrative as winning one World Series.

The “extra” revenue is irrelevant. It will not change the amount of top end budget. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I'm sure you thought this was a clever response, but you apparently did not think this through.  I am not the person making these trades and my ability to predict which players will help a team contend is completely irrelevant.  Those predictions are done by a team of people in front offices led by people like Billy Beane.  The guy who got Semien and Bassit for 1 year of Samardzija. I would have to say Beane’s prediction for the six years following that trade were pretty darn good.

I guess all those WS titles are the proof in the pudding. Not to mention Oakland's enviable roster today.

[Major League Ready]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I guess all those WS titles are the proof in the pudding. Not to mention Oakland's enviable roster today.

So, if the Yankees don't win the WS this year the team they built was not great?  What a ridiculous argument.  You are good at finding a comeback while ignoring the glaringly obvious.  Oakland has the most 90+ win seasons and most playoff appearances of any team in the bottom half of revenue and they are at the very bottom in terms of revenue.  They have done a phenomenal job of putting a good product on the field despite having a significant disadvantage.   A very significant part of that success was trading established players for prospects that gave them several years of great production but you ignore this because you don't like the implications.  Cleveland and Tampa Bay are the only others in this group that are close.  You are also very aware small market teams will go through these cycles. Yet, you use it as a counterpoint.  Weak!

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My company has an office in Tampa and talking to people that work there, nobody cares they gave up Ryan for Cruz, they laugh at me and others that say the Twins stole Ryan for a DH. Their reasons are Tampa went out a basically got the best hitter available which is awesome even if it didn't work out and Ryan is just another 5 inning pitcher and they are a dime a dozen in the Rays system, they care about the future rotation studs (who they know will be traded in the future, but they get a couple of years). They all say they pretty much hate the way Tampa goes about its business but they do have faith in the FO won't screw things up, most of them say they haven't been to a game in years but follow the team pretty closely. ( I know it is SSS but those are the only people I know if north Florida)

on that note can the Twins afford that kind of fan? One that pays attention from a far but never really dives head first in caring or spending money on them? I see most of my friends slowing going that route (ages 45-55) or already being there. No streaming option might be the biggest reason, but some say Twins don't really seem to care about winning big so why should they,

IMO the Twins need to make a splash this year, they have plenty of prospects subtracting a few will not hurt the future and if it does maybe this aren't the guys for the front office. I against getting a starter, because what good does it do to go out and get a guy and ask him to face 21/22 guys unless of course they get a guy and they let him actually pitch, but that isn't likely. Maybe a Happ/Robertson trade with the cubs, that is splashy and makes the Twins look like they are trying to do something.

That best hitter available produced a wRC+ of 96 and provided zero defensive value?  I don't really care what your colleagues in Tampa thought about the move.  As you said they hate the way the team is run.  In other words, they are ignoring how successful their strategies have been and prefer they do operate in a manner that is less effective in a small market. 

Do you think Ryan's production is so meager that it was work trading for two months of a guy who had a wRC+ of 96 and provided zero defensive value?  Ryan's is tied for the team league in WAR among SPs with Gray.  He sure looks like a solid middle of the rotation arms.  Sorry, but the premise that six years of a SP like Ryan for two months of someone who produced below league average is not a steal only demonstrates exceptionally poor critical thinking among these fans who want instant gratification above all else.  I sure hope those colleagues in Florida have no role in developing organizational strategy for your company.

[TwinsDr2021]

23 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That best hitter available produced had a wRC+ of 96 and provided zero defensive value?  I don't really care what your collegues in Tampa thought about the move.  As you said they hate the way the team is run.  In other words, they are ignoring how successful their strategies have been and prefer they do operate in a manner that is less effective in a small market. 

Do you think Ryan's production is so meager that it was work trading for two months of a guy who had a wRC+ of 96 and provided zero defensive value?  Ryan's is tied for the team league in WAR among SPs with Gray.  He sure looks like a solid middle of the rotation arms.  Sorry, but the premise that six years of a SP like Ryan for two months of someone who produced below league average is not a steal only demonstrates exceptionally poor critical thinking among these fans who want instant gratification above all else.  I sure hope those colleagues in Florida have no role in developing organizational strategy for your company.

Not really sure what point you are trying to make? I told you how a few dozens fans in Florida felt about the trade and you basically called them idiots, which is kind of strange because it was the Rays that made the trade not the fans and the fans were OK with it? So who should not be running developing organizational strategies for my companies the FO of the Rays or the Fans?

You seemed to miss the part where they said they hate the way the Rays run, but have faith they won't screw it up. you do know that people are allowed to feel that way, correct?

I feel like you are saying Tampa's future is now screwed because they traded away two prospects to try and add to a team that had a chance? The trade didn't work out how Tampa was hoping, but at the end of the day did the screw their future by giving up Ryan?

As for "the premise" it isn't like they don't know they Twins got great deal or steal, it is that they don't care, their Team when it had a chance went out and did something to improve and sure it cost Ryan and Strotman, but big deal it isn't like Ryan is future Cole, Verlander or McClanahan type he was just a 25 year old good to pretty good major future major league pitcher and freed up two 40 man roster spots for 22. 

I will say for every Joe Ryan that is traded, there are way more Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonslaves, and TYler Jay's of the world that aren't traded and never amount to anything.

 

 

[Jerr]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My company has an office in Tampa and talking to people that work there, nobody cares they gave up Ryan for Cruz, they laugh at me and others that say the Twins stole Ryan for a DH. Their reasons are Tampa went out a basically got the best hitter available which is awesome even if it didn't work out and Ryan is just another 5 inning pitcher and they are a dime a dozen in the Rays system, they care about the future rotation studs (who they know will be traded in the future, but they get a couple of years). They all say they pretty much hate the way Tampa goes about its business but they do have faith in the FO won't screw things up, most of them say they haven't been to a game in years but follow the team pretty closely. ( I know it is SSS but those are the only people I know if north Florida)

on that note can the Twins afford that kind of fan? One that pays attention from a far but never really dives head first in caring or spending money on them? I see most of my friends slowing going that route (ages 45-55) or already being there. No streaming option might be the biggest reason, but some say Twins don't really seem to care about winning big so why should they,

IMO the Twins need to make a splash this year, they have plenty of prospects subtracting a few will not hurt the future and if it does maybe this aren't the guys for the front office. I against getting a starter, because what good does it do to go out and get a guy and ask him to face 21/22 guys unless of course they get a guy and they let him actually pitch, but that isn't likely. Maybe a Happ/Robertson trade with the cubs, that is splashy and makes the Twins look like they are trying to do something.

This for me: "One that pays attention from a far but never really dives head first in caring or spending money on them? I see most of my friends slowing going that route (ages 45-55) or already being there. No streaming option might be the biggest reason,"

[nicksaviking]

Normally, this intangible stuff isn't something I put much stock in, but there's clearly a mental block with this club regarding the playoffs, so yes, 100%, there is value in winning a playoff series.

But not even remotely as much value as winning a World Series, which I think is unlikely this year under any circumstances. There are too many young pitchers who will need to be relied upon regardless of trades. I really, like these guys too, but I think they need a season of building up the stamina and battle stories before they can take the crown. As much as I like Ryan, Duran and company, I think by October they're going to start running out of gas, just like most young pitchers do.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 7/23/2022 at 11:38 AM, Major League Ready said:

There would be value if they could achieve this without giving up the players that will needed to become a legit contender.  They can't trade Brooks or Prielipp so I don't believe it's possible.  Fans quite often believe they are going to acquire these high impact players without impacting the future of the team.   Was it worth it for the Rays to trade Ryan for Cruz?  The likely result is that they trade away 2 or 3 players that would be instrumental in contender for the next several years to have a better shot at a 1st round win this year.   That would be short-sighted but the trade deadline often promotes a fair amount of short-sightedness.  Such a trade would be of service to fans that want instant gratification.  It would not be of service to those of us who are going to watch every year, not just the good years, and want to see the best possible product year in and year out.

Major - What is your view about the Petty for Gray trade? I really like Sonny Gray, but I feel the price of Petty will prove to be too high. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 7/23/2022 at 3:27 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Imo, most people would be happier if they enjoyed the journey, including winning a playoff series. The focus on the end.... leads to unhappiness.

Mike I agree I would be happier by focusing on the journey. But don't you agree that the annual baseball seasonal journey itself is more fun for us, when the Twins are winning? This year has been so much more fun than last year for us Twins fans. However if one's definition of "winning" is to be able to go to a beautiful ball park and watch the wonderful game of baseball, no matter who wins the game, then last year's Twins season should have created just as much joy for us Twins fans as this season's Twins games. Let me see a show of hands of readers who enjoyed last year's Twins season as much as this year's season.  No hands? I thought so. For better or for worse, baseball is so much more than enjoying a beautiful day at the ball park. It is about beating the hell out of the Yankees. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Normally, this intangible stuff isn't something I put much stock in, but there's clearly a mental block with this club regarding the playoffs, so yes, 100%, there is value in winning a playoff series.

But not even remotely as much value as winning a World Series, which I think is unlikely this year under any circumstances. There are too many young pitchers who will need to be relied upon regardless of trades. I really, like these guys too, but I think they need a season of building up the stamina and battle stories before they can take the crown. As much as I like Ryan, Duran and company, I think by October they're going to start running out of gas, just like most young pitchers do.

By young do you mean inexperienced? Because Duran would be the only pitcher on the Twins that I would call young and he is 24 1/2 years old. Jax is 27, Moran is 25, Ryan is 26, Ober 27, Smeltzer just a month away from 27,  and WInder just over two months will 26.

IMO, when I think of young players, I think of anything under 24, but that is me.

Also IMO I don't see 23 much different than 22, pretty much the same starters and pen. Ryan, Ober, Gray, Winder, replace Bundy and Archer with Maeda and Paddock. Not sure how much of an up grade that is, and there is no guarantee Winder or Ober will be any healthier or Cleveland and the White Sox having a bad start and Correa?. I see the same disagreements at this time next year, this team needs can't win so why trade because 24 will be the year. (again I am not for trading for a starter, but multiple bullpen arms for sure, and maybe a catcher.

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

By young do you mean inexperienced? Because Duran would be the only pitcher on the Twins that I would call young and he is 24 1/2 years old. Jax is 27, Moran is 25, Ryan is 26, Ober 27, Smeltzer just a month away from 27,  and WInder just over two months will 26.

IMO, when I think of young players, I think of anything under 24, but that is me.

Also IMO I don't see 23 much different than 22, pretty much the same starters and pen. Ryan, Ober, Gray, Winder, replace Bundy and Archer with Maeda and Paddock. Not sure how much of an up grade that is, and there is no guarantee Winder or Ober will be any healthier or Cleveland and the White Sox having a bad start and Correa?. I see the same disagreements at this time next year, this team needs can't win so why trade because 24 will be the year. (again I am not for trading for a starter, but multiple bullpen arms for sure, and maybe a catcher.

 

 

Winning, like losing, is a habit formed by experience.

[nicksaviking]

31 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

By young do you mean inexperienced? Because Duran would be the only pitcher on the Twins that I would call young and he is 24 1/2 years old. Jax is 27, Moran is 25, Ryan is 26, Ober 27, Smeltzer just a month away from 27,  and WInder just over two months will 26.

IMO, when I think of young players, I think of anything under 24, but that is me.

Also IMO I don't see 23 much different than 22, pretty much the same starters and pen. Ryan, Ober, Gray, Winder, replace Bundy and Archer with Maeda and Paddock. Not sure how much of an up grade that is, and there is no guarantee Winder or Ober will be any healthier or Cleveland and the White Sox having a bad start and Correa?. I see the same disagreements at this time next year, this team needs can't win so why trade because 24 will be the year. (again I am not for trading for a starter, but multiple bullpen arms for sure, and maybe a catcher.

 

 

Yes, I mean young as in inexperienced. I think the team is being proactive limiting their innings, which is not popular with the fans, but they're going to pitch more innings and have a longer season than they've ever experienced before.

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Mike I agree I would be happier by focusing on the journey. But don't you agree that the annual baseball seasonal journey itself is more fun for us, when the Twins are winning? This year has been so much more fun than last year for us Twins fans. However if one's definition of "winning" is to be able to go to a beautiful ball park and watch the wonderful game of baseball, no matter who wins the game, then last year's Twins season should have created just as much joy for us Twins fans as this season's Twins games. Let me see a show of hands of readers who enjoyed last year's Twins season as much as this year's season.  No hands? I thought so. For better or for worse, baseball is so much more than enjoying a beautiful day at the ball park. It is about beating the hell out of the Yankees. 

Definitely winning is more fun, but the occasional loss is not the end of the world, as some here seem to feel. 

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yes, I mean young as in inexperienced. I think the team is being proactive limiting their innings, which is not popular with the fans, but they're going to pitch more innings and have a longer season than they've ever experienced before.

I can agree with a longer season, not sure about the more innings, seems a few will have pitched more last year than this year. But injuries in the present and past have contributed to the limiting of innings, which IMO most fans understand, the fans don't understand or agree with limiting pitchers to roughly 21 batters faced and how based on innings and pitch count it seems so inconsistent. If you ignore the pitch count and innings if is very easy to predict when the starter will be pulled. For example Ryan being taken out in Detroit, told my son exactly what was going to happen and when he was going to be taken out. 22 batters faced and a lefty up, he was coming out 100%,

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Major - What is your view about the Petty for Gray trade? I really like Sonny Gray, but I feel the price of Petty will prove to be too high. 

I was OK with it because so many high school pitchers never amount to much.  Gray may be the difference in winning the division.  However, I had the same apprehension because it could turn out to be a very high price.  He is one of the prospects outside the organization I track because I hope we did not give up a true ace which we have not had in a longtime. 

BTW ... He is doing quite well for a 19 y/o in A ball but we shall see in a couple years.

[jorgenswest]

Let me try to reframe my wonder.

Is the value of putting yourself in a position to be a favorite in a playoff series worth the prospect cost of losing some trades in the long run?

[Unwinder]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My company has an office in Tampa and talking to people that work there, nobody cares they gave up Ryan for Cruz, they laugh at me and others that say the Twins stole Ryan for a DH. Their reasons are Tampa went out a basically got the best hitter available which is awesome even if it didn't work out and Ryan is just another 5 inning pitcher and they are a dime a dozen in the Rays system

New idea: Let's trade the Rays a dime.

[howeda7]

Yes. There absolutely is. Especially when you've lost 18 games in a row and the White Sox/Guardians will be better next year and in subsequent years. Should they trade Lewis/Kiriloff/Miranda? No. Should pretty much anyone else who's not key to the 2022 Twins be on the table? Yes, within reason. At the bare minimum they need 2 relievers. If they decide the cost of a starter is unreasonable, so be it.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Let me try to reframe my wonder.

Is the value of putting yourself in a position to be a favorite in a playoff series worth the prospect cost of losing some trades in the long run?

Yes, within reason. IMO the 2022 Twins will benefit greatly with 1 or 2 more reliable bullpen arms which won’t cost much in prospect capital. If they target a SP like Montas or Castillo it helps this year and next year at a higher cost. I would draw the line, however at depleting the farm for a player like Juan Soto. Who is an amazing baseball player, but not the difference between a WS championship or not. 

Go for it within reason when things are going well. There’s always time to restock the farm system during down years like 2021. 

[Whitey333]

Wow.  Great views by everyone.  Unfortunately some unnecessary snide remarks as well.  One of the things wrong on these forums is that people sometimes get blasted because they don't agree with someone else's posting. People should be free to express their opinions as well.  I have my opinions too on this subject.  That doesn't mean I'm right but it is my opinion.  Does it make me an expert?  Of course not.  Am I an expert in predicting who is going to be a future Twins player?  Of course not.  Not anymore than any of you can.  Just like we can't predict when we get to the world series again.  It's been since 1991.  We haven't won a playoff game in many years.  There is no guarantee that any of the Twins prospects will become contributes in the future.  Current  team has many flaws and holes.  I would expect the FO to address those issues.  There isn't any reason that IF they trade a prospect or two for major league pitching that they couldn't be part of the team that finally gets them over the hump.  I for one will be dissappointed if the FO doesn't make some kind of legitimate attempt to improve the team to give them a shot at the playoffs.

[Blyleven2011]

Is there value in a series playoff win .... YES ....

what the value is ....

Top Free agents would now be more inclined to think twins are a contender ....

Would help encourage the fan base that we are turning the corner into contenders....

It would also help make the players more of a believer in themselves ....

It would also help relieve some of the pressure  on the FO  if they would honor the twins fans with a better pitching solution  .... they just haven't proven to me of their words as the time of their hiring  ....