Trading for Thor: Could Noah Syndergaard Provide Twins Stability?

[Nash Walker]

Trade season is fast approaching. The Twins have only eight more games until the deadline, and they must improve the club if they want to find success in the second half and into the postseason. 

This five-point scoring system runs on five factors: player, projection, availability, expected cost, and viability: higher score = a better target for the Twins.

THE FIVE FACTORS
PLAYER: How has the player performed? How much of a difference would they make for the Twins?
PROJECTION: Is there an upside with this player? Is there team control beyond this year? Are there injury concerns?
AVAILABILITY: Is the player actually on the trade block?
EXPECTED COST: What will it take to acquire this player, in prospect capital and dollars?
VIABILITY: What’s the leaguewide desire for this player? Would the Twins have a chance in a bidding war?

Let’s move on to a former ace in Angels’ starter Noah Syndergaard. 

PLAYER
Syndergaard, 29, was a popular trade target for Twins fans at the 2019 deadline when the team was in winning position and needed quality starters. The situation is the same in 2022, but Syndergaard isn’t. 

Once a firebreather, Syndergaard’s velocity is way down after Tommy John surgery. He’s primarily sinker/slider against righties, with his fastball averaging 94 mph and his slider 83. The stuff is down, but righties are hitting just .232/.282/.369 off him this year. He can still get outs. 

Syndergaard is not a surefire game-one starter he once was. He may not even be a playoff-caliber starter, with a 4.00 ERA and 19% strikeout rate. He could provide stability to the Twins’ rotation and slot in as a solid No. 3 or 4 who could eat up innings. 

PLAYER SCORE: 2

PROJECTION
It feels like the upside on Syndergaard is limited. It’s unlikely he regains his velocity in the second half of a season coming off arm surgery, and he’ll probably need workload maintenance. He’s on a one-year deal, so any value the Twins get will be in his handful of starts after the deadline. 

If there were a sense Syndergaard was returning to prior form, he would be a much more intriguing target. His average fastball velocity in July is 93.4 mph, down over a tick from his average of 94.6 in April. It’s a similar story with his slider, where he’s lost nearly two MPH on its average velocity since the opening month. 

Syndergaard knows how to pitch and has reinvented himself with diminished stuff. You can probably count on a league-average ERA if he's healthy. That doesn’t entirely move the needle, but his projection down the stretch is fairly gloomy. 

PROJECTION SCORE: 1

AVAILABILITY
Poor Angels fans. Once again, with two of the best players in MLB history, the Angels are an embarrassment. They signed Syndergaard to a one-year, $21 million deal to compete. Instead, they’re likely to sell at the deadline. 

The Angels don’t have many clear trade candidates. They constantly operate as a contender but fail to play like one. Ryan Tepera may become available, or even someone like Jared Walsh, but their most likely trade involves Syndergaard. 

AVAILABILITY SCORE: 5

EXPECTED COST
Unlike Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, Syndergaard will cost more money than he will in prospects. Any acquiring team should assume the remaining ~$10 million on Syndergaard’s 2022 contract. There’s quite simply no reason for the Angels to keep him. 

Finding a buyer’s market on a starting pitcher is out of the ordinary, but I believe that’s the case with Syndergaard. Given his health concerns, mediocre performance, and remaining salary, one could wonder how many teams will be interested. 

Syndergaard was once one of the premier starters in the game. Teams would’ve lined up to trade for him just a few years ago. Now, you can probably get him for a medium-level prospect. 

COST SCORE: 5

VIABILITY
This feels like a Twins move. It’s a buy-low opportunity that won’t cost the farm. If the Twins choose a mid-level approach, where they acquire a few relievers and mid-rotation starter, Syndergaard fits that mold. We have yet to see this Twins regime sell out for anybody at the deadline. 

Top-of-the-line contenders like the Yankees and Astros will likely look elsewhere. That could provide an opportunity for the Twins to scoop up Syndergaard for very little in prospect capital. Of course, Syndergaard is not close to the level of Castillo, Montas, or Tyler Mahle. 

VIABILITY SCORE: 4

Syndergaard is far from flashy, and he's not a guarantee to remain healthy and effective down the stretch, With the Twins' shaky rotation, he may be worth the low risk.

FINAL SCORE: 17

What do you think about Noah Syndergaard? Comment below!

 

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[AlwaysinModeration]

Yes, the Twins should absolutely be in on Thor (even if they use him out of the pen).  Trading for him now increases the likelihood he stays with them beyond this year, too.

What would he cost?  That’s the question. Off to go look up baseballtradevalues….

[AlwaysinModeration]

Yes, the Twins should absolutely be in on Thor (even if they use him out of the pen).  Trading for him now increases the likelihood he stays with them beyond this year, too.

What would he cost?  That’s the question. Off to go look up baseballtradevalues…

…and now back.  Thor is valued at 4.5.

Twins could offer Julien (2.4) and Hajjar (2.4) and that would be considered an even trade according to that site.

The closest individual players in terms of value would appear to be:

Canterino 5.3

Miller 4.8

Balazovic. 3.5

[mike8791]

I've always loved Thor but sadly, the 2022 version seems a pale shadow of his former self.  I think most of us want this FO to go all in for a #1 or 2 starter by Aug. 2.  To do otherwise would not only be irrational after signing Correa and trading a #1 draft pick for Gray, but a slap in the face to Twin players and fans.

The idea of looking for perhaps a top of rotation guy who might be undervalued is a good one and squares with this org's MO.   Thor is not that guy, but perhaps Snell or Rodon is.  Snell has been a big disappointment, but recent starts have been encouraging and his stats are still well above average.  Most importantly, he is on a team with surplus pitching but lacking offense.  I would think Sano would be of interest to the Pods, providing we throw in some $.  Darvish would be a better add, but doubt the Pods can afford to let him go.  

The Twins whiffed on Rodon when the strike ended.  No surprise there.  This FO is risk averse, but Rodon has proven himself this year so the risk level is less now and the uposide higher.  Yes, unlikely SF would want to unload him, but now that he is able to opt out of his contract, the possibility of a trade could be more enticing for a team with a high salary structure.  He would likely cost much less than Castillo or Montas in terms of prospects but would fit in above Ryan and Gray in our shaky rotation.

This FO has focused on pitching retreads and the results speak for themselves, yet somehow this team is into the running for a playoff berth.  Go big or go home!

[Eris]

After his first few years, Thor has been an enigma. He has ace-like pitches but never paired that with ace like results.   Since 2019, his ERA has been around 4 or worse. Part/maybe all of this is attributed to injuries as he has missed 2 full seasons with arm injuries. 
 

looking at comparisons on the Twins, it seems that he has produced somewhat similar results as Ober and Winder. 

[Karbo]

A trade for Thor seems like the kind of a deal this FO would make. He shouldn't cost much in prospects, but IMO they need to go after 2 bullpen setup guys 1st. Thor or any starter of his quality would be a distant 3rd.

[strumdatjag]

The Twins should sign him and then dust off 1977 era pitcher Paul Thormodsgard’s old #22 jersey.    For those not in the know, the name on the back was “THOR”.   

[Linus]

Hard pass. The Angels would have to eat most of the salary and even then I wouldn’t give up much prospect capital. 

[farmerguychris]

27 minutes ago, Linus said:

Hard pass. The Angels would have to eat most of the salary and even then I wouldn’t give up much prospect capital. 

Exactly this!

[roger]

How many years have we been reading about the Twins trading for Thor?  Whether it is during the offseason or at the deadline, seems to be forever.  And look what he has become?  Not worth a heck of a lot and I for one wouldn't touch him at any cost.  Another great example of why most of the trades for top of the line pitchers aren't a good deal for the acquiring or signing team in free agency.  Got a feeling our FO agrees, which is why we don't see them giving the long-term deals most people want to pitchers.  There are bloody few Justin Verlander's out there, and he even took a year off recently.  But I can't believe what he is doing now that he is back.

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I'd pass on Thor.  We have enough #4's and #5's in the rotation.  No need for another one who is expensive and short-term.  Go for Months or Castillo but only if you plan on signing them long-term.

[RJA]

IF the cost to add him is small, I might add him, not in place of a Montas or Castillo but in addition to one of them. After Gray and Ryan, the rotation is pretty weak.  Thor has had trouble in the first inning this year (opener?) but has pitched into the 7th inning in some games.  Montas/Castillo, Gray, Ryan, Thor and Archer/Bundy/Ober would not be bad.  Plus, one of the last 3 could maybe be a long man in bullpen.  I’m for it if a 1 is added as well.  

 

[dxpavelka]

Jump on it.  Key words being "very little in prospect capital."  That's what we normally do and the return is typically "very little."  This is an opportunity to take an all in type of shot at a low prospect capital shot.  Hell yes.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

A trade for Thor seems like the kind of a deal this FO would make. He shouldn't cost much in prospects, but IMO they need to go after 2 bullpen setup guys 1st. Thor or any starter of his quality would be a distant 3rd.

I remember that everyone wanted to trade Buck for Thor. Agree with Karbo that a closer is priority. We should go after a frontline SP before looking at Thor. Towards the end of the deadline Thor should still be available.

With management ignoring long relief, they'll have to over extend Thor and his velo will continue to drop. Under this premise, I'd pass on Thor.

[D.C Twins]

Yaaaaawn..... not going to move the needle

[Shaitan]

I'm in for almost any rental who will provide stable, average+ innings.

Cheap (in trade capital) and no commitment, essentially. Cut losses if it doesn't work out.

[Stew]

The problem is I like the other guys we have. Thor is a middle of the rotation guy. Besides come the last month of the season and playoffs we will likely have madea and acala back. So I dont see a bullpen opportunity for him. Also we pay 10 million bucks that takes away money used for relief help. How much will the twins spend before the deadline? But it maybe a fallback position.

 

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

Hard pass. The Angels would have to eat most of the salary and even then I wouldn’t give up much prospect capital. 

Agreed

[DocBauer]

IF the Twins trade for a SP, he needs to the equivalent of Gray and Ryan. It's easy to just say "go get so and so", but harder to actually pull it off. You're competing with other teams, and what is the cost? Does your system actually fit with what the other team is looking to add? So while someone better than Gray or Ryan would be awesome, as good still gives the team THREE solid SP that you can feel good about on the mound in a playoff game. A really nice #3 with control and maybe upside wouldn't stink, even if falling a little short of the mark.

I don't think Thor fits any of this criteria. There's a decent chance he's better, and closer to his precious self in 2023, further removed from injury and recovery. But he's only a rental and one that probably isn't any better than Winder, a healthy Dobnak, even Bundy or 4 IP "opener" like Archer. 

I don't see a fit unless he comes really cheap and the FO see something to tweak the Angels haven't found.

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, Karbo said:

A trade for Thor seems like the kind of a deal this FO would make. He shouldn't cost much in prospects, but IMO they need to go after 2 bullpen setup guys 1st. Thor or any starter of his quality would be a distant 3rd.

It's not a matter of what they do first.   If they need two starters & two relievers go get them all.  If you screw around getting other things first and run out of time to get this kind of get you still end up short of what is needed.

[tony&rodney]

If he could be a good relief pitcher ... maybe, otherwise no because the Twins already have the same guy without trading or paying any extra salary. 

[GV14218]

On 7/23/2022 at 8:05 AM, mike8791 said:

The Twins whiffed on Rodon when the strike ended. 

What happened this past offseason was a LOCKOUT by MLB owners, not a strike by players. The difference is important. 

[DJL44]

I think I'd be more interested in obtaining Ryan Tepera from the Angels than Syndergaard. Both would be okay.

[bean5302]

As other's have noted Syndergaard does not appear to be the same pitcher he was prior to TJ. His velocity has dropped about 4mph. That's crazy. Syndergaard's drop in velocity hasn't impacted how effective his fastball is, but it's really wiped out his changeup and slider value.

I think Syndergaard is still a good pitcher, but he's no top of the rotation arm at this point. That said... it is intriguing if the front office could identify the cause of Syndergaard's drop in velocity and address it. Even if they could, I don't think it would be something so simple it would happen overnight.

While I believe Syndergaard is better and more reliable than Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer, I think it'd be foolish to believe he'd be a difference maker in the playoffs, and making a difference in the playoffs would be my objective when acquiring a pitcher.

The Angels are taking calls on Ohtani and they're asking for established MLB players in return. That could be a good situation for the Twins, depending on what the Angels really mean. Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Larnach could all be highly coveted in that scenario.

[howeda7]

I would do it if the price is right. I trust him more than Bundy or Archer even in his current form.