Trade Deadline Primer Excerpt: Miami Marlins

[Nick Nelson]

Miami's youth movement is coming to fruition, led by star second baseman Jazz Chisholm and ace starter Sandy Alcantara. They won't win the division this year and have an uphill battle for a wild-card spot, so it's plausible they'll be open to dealing short-term assets. But this is definitely a team on the rise.

 

If they sell at all, the Marlins will be looking to reload with near-ready (or already established) talent. This creates some interesting possible scenarios. Are the Twins open to moving any presently-valuable players who are somewhat redundant? Like maybe a Max Kepler?

Top Target
Max Meyer, RH Starter
If a report from the Miami Herald is to be believed, the Marlins were prepared to deal Meyer to the Angels at last year's deadline in exchange for a young bat. It's hard to see why they'd be willing to part with a premium pitching prospect, drafted third overall out of the University of Minnesota in 2020, but supposedly they were then so maybe they are now.

The connection here is obvious, given his local ties and the Twins' need for a long-term rotation centerpiece. It'd need to be a blockbuster, involving names like Jose Miranda and Austin Martin.

Other Targets of Interest
Tanner Scott, LH Reliever
Acquired from Baltimore at the start of the season, the 27-year-old has big stuff, but I'm not sure his wildness and inconsistency are the cure for what ails an unstable Twins bullpen.

Anthony Bass, RH Reliever
The veteran reliever is having an excellent season, with a 1.40 ERA and only one HR allowed through his first 39 appearances. You'd be buying high, but there's no sign his success hasn't been legitimate. He's got a $3M team option for 2023.

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Steven Okert, LH Reliever
Brings strikeout stuff from the left side (11.2 K/9) and is having a second straight strong season, but – stop me if you've heard it before – he struggles with walks and homers.

Sleeper Target
Trevor Rogers, LH Starter
Unrelated to Taylor and Tyler, Rogers was an All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up last year at age 23. He's had a much rougher go of it here in his sophomore campaign, which might make the Marlins more open to trading him for hitting help. It would basically be a slightly lower-scale version of the proposed Meyer blockbuster above.

 

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[Karbo]

I have doubts about trading Miranda and Martin for any pitcher that doesn't have a proven MLB track record.

[Doctor Gast]

I think Rogers could do very well in a change  of scenery. But he'll still come expensive, most likely more than this club is willing to part with. Love to bring home U of M star, Meyers but could he quickly mature into that frontline SP that we need ? It'd be nice, Bass is a must.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

The Marlins drafted Meyer 2 years ago and have just called him up to MLB. His progress through the minors underlines that it would take a big haul to get them to trade him, but I'd bet that it also points to them being less willing to deal him than they were a year ago.

[tony&rodney]

Miami is unlikely to trade Meyer and the Twins would be foolish to trade Miranda. Miranda has done well so far and projects to improve quite a bit both at the plate and especially in the field.

[DocBauer]

The Marlins seem to be an ideal trade partner, at least on the surface. They've got room to trade pitching and the Twins have bats to offer, probably with an arm or two thrown in. And while I keep hearing the Marlins are really in need of bats, I don't know them, or their system, well enough to know exactly how in need they are.

I don't want to trade Miranda in ANY deal, unless just forced to by a deal too good to pass up. And I really don't want to part with Larnach either, as I really like his future. The good news, from the Twins perspective, is they can keep the solid Urshela for 2023, have Steer just about ready, and maybe just drafted an outstanding 3B in Lee. They also have Wallner as a potential replacement for Larnach, and AK doesn't have to transition to a full time 1B tomorrow. (I still don't think I'd move Miranda unless the offer was just KILLER).

A little further down the system the Twins have the very promising Julien and CES, each of whom could/should be ready over the next two years. Has Martin's profile and projection lost all luster? You don't want to sell low. But every single front office, including the Marlins, knows who the kid is. They could easily see a "get him in the OF and let him go" philosophy and get a very good player a year ot so from now.

Want to get a little crazy? Sano has absolutely frustrating cold spells. But he can also carry a team for a week or two at a time. He plays a passable 1B, can be a fill in at 3B, and be a primary DH. Despite all the frustration he sometimes brings, he has a career OPS of .809 and is still under 30yrs old, IIRC. What if he's part of a deal and the Twins send cash? Suddenly he's a power plant in their 2023 lineup for a pittance.

You're going to have to include an arm or two depending on the package and it's size. I mean, this could easily be a 2 for 4-6 kind of deal. But if the Twins acquire a high end arm, or two, it's OK that you gave up a couple too. The system isn't depleted by adding a couple arms and losing a couple.

Yeah, the Twins and Marlns seem like perfect trade partners. And it might even be easier to get a pair of needs from one place. I can easily see HURT for both teams, which means fair, but not so much hurt either team is decimated by the losses.

But I'm not going to offer up trade proposals because they are just so vague and unknown. But I think the Twins SHOULD be working the number to Miami to see what can be equitably done. 

 

 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Also...Max Meyer injures elbow

[the_neds]

Lopez and Bass for would be my targets - not sure what it would take to get it done. You'd likely have to give up Larnach or Miranda to start, Steer, plus one more like Wallner or Encarnacion Strand at a bare minimum. Bass has a team option for '23, and Lopez is under arbitration through '24. I hate the idea of giving up Larnach but we do have a lot of big league bats fighting for space and he'd probably net the biggest return outside of Kirriloff and Miranda. I could be convinced to give up AK for the right price, but Miranda has got to be a no-trade for me. (Unless we get something ridiculous like Castillo AND Mahle.)

[Loosey]

I would target Pablo Lopez in a trade with Miami.  He is under control through 2024 could be a top of rotation type starter and we have a surplus of what Miami is likely looking for, Bats.  I would lead with Larnach and Steer for starters.  I would sting to trade Larnach but outfield bats are more replaceable than top end starters.  If Miami wants more look to the lower minors for some of the exciting outfielders that are moving up the prospect rankings to give them additional future prospects.  For fun I would offer them Sano and eat the rest of his contract.  That gives Miami 2 young hitters and one who might find a spark with a change of scenery.  Kiriloff and Miranda would be off limits unless they are blown away. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

MLBTR says Marlins are "open to offers" on Pablo López and are looking for left-handed power hitting: link

I know the Baseball Trade Values simulator sometimes values certain players weirdly and maybe shouldn't be trusted, but for what it's worth, it views trading Larnach, Steer, and Canterino for López and Anthony Bass as almost a dead-even match.

In the real world, 2 out of 3 players on the Twins side of that deal are hurt or rehabbing, which probably will affect the value assessment somewhat. But this kind of framework for a trade, at least, looks realistic.

[Steve71]

What about Kiriloff for Lopez straight up?  That would be a tough decision for the Twins.....

[tony&rodney]

The Twins need pitching, it is that simple. Every pitcher in baseball carries risk-this is an obvious truth.

Pablo Lopez fits a specific need and the various suggestions of offering a young outfielder, a young infielder, and a young pitcher all are reasonable. Now, will Miami agree? 

Although the main need for the Twins is in the bullpen, starting pitching is also thin. Pull the strings and gamble on a questionable shoulder or two. Lopez and Bass for Larnach /(Kirilloff?), Steer, and Winder/Ober/Canterino and another player mutually agreed upon and acquire Montas and Puk for Martin, Woods-Richardson, Sabato, Julien, and Varland/Povich/Hajjar. These two guys push Ryan to #3 and Gray to #4, but also release stress on the relief corps because they usually eat 6-7 innings. 

Something needs to change because the Twins are quite unlikely to go after and successfully sign a top free agent pitcher and they need a guy or two. The time is ripe to take a chance. The Twins have a decent lineup and it is also very young. They don't exactly need to save so many prospects for the next several years, especially hitters. Both Brooks Lee and CES could be ready in a couple of years and Erod is coming too. Trading four of our dozen pitching prospects is unlikely to hurt if the addition includes two guys like Lopez and Montas.

[USAFChief]

Max Meyer: TJS.

Unfortunate. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

6 hours ago, Steve71 said:

What about Kiriloff for Lopez straight up?  That would be a tough decision for the Twins.....

If a one-for-one swap were on the table, they should do it. How much it would set the team back this year depends a bit on Larnach's injury recovery—if they realistically expect him to be healthy for the stretch run, he kind of replaces Kirilloff's lefty bat, and if not, maybe they need to look for a rental bat elsewhere. But even if Kirilloff has loads of potential and a number of years under contractual control, a corner bat for 2+ years of a #2-ish starter is a good deal IMO.