Trade Deadline Primer Excerpt: Chicago Cubs

[John Bonnes]

The Cubs didn't even feign an attempt at contention this year, so they're right where they expected to be. In the cellar, and acting as sellers. So who's available?

 

The Cubs need pitching, and specifically, they need to add young pitchers with upside. The Twins have a few of those.

Top Target
David Robertson, RH Reliever
In 2019, it looked like injuries were going to curtail an illustrious career as closer and setup man. For a decade, Robertson had been one of the best in the biz. He underwent Tommy John surgery and it looked like the end of the road.

But he wasn't done. One year ago, the 37-year-old was the closer for Team USA in the Olympics in Tokyo, helping the team to a silver medal. He was a free agent and pitched a couple of games for Frank Viola’s High Point pitching staff in the independent Atlantic League. After the Olympics, he signed with the Rays and joined the team on September 1st. He turned that opportunity into one-year contract with the Cubs.

As of the All-Star break, he had a dazzling 1.93 ERA and 11.6 K/9 rate as the team’s closer, appearing to be very much back to form. He'll be one of the most sought-after targets on the deadline market.

Other Targets of Interest
Willson Contreras, Catcher
Contreras is the other big piece for the Cubs to deal at the deadline. The 30-year-old is a free agent at season’s end and one of the top backstops in the game. Good hitter, tons of power, and solid defense. But should the Twins spend any resources on a catcher (or any non-pitcher) at this point? The Ryan Jeffers injury might change their view on this.

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Mychal Givens, RH Reliever
Veteran reliever with a ton of late-innings experience. Fastball velocity down to 94 MPH average, but also has a slider and a changeup.

Sleeper Target
Marcus Stroman, RH Starter
The Twins were not in on Marcus Stroman before he signed his three-year, $71 million with the Cubs – to the lament of many fans. He recently came off the IL with a shoulder issue, and he has struggled this year. He’s also got about $50 million left over the remainder of his contract. If healthy (a big if), Stroman can provide good innings, and maybe even be a postseason difference-maker. Huge risk, but maybe the Cubs would take on some of the contract for a better prospect.

 

 

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[MTV]

Extra sleeper target: Ian Happ. Incredibly consistent switch-hitting bat, can play both Center and Left at a high level and allows for Larnach and Celestino to become trade candidates.

[PatPfund]

Eek. Where the Cubs want to be is both instructional, and a warning for the local nine. Robertson should be a target of interest, but this club also could have signed him last offseason, and if they send a good prospect, they'll essentially be giving up a good prospect, and likely a pitching prospect for 20-ish innings.

So maybe this offseason, consider signing a Robertson or two at moderate pay to establish a floor under a recently terrible 'pen. (And if the Twins are terrible, you can flip them.)

Stroman should be the Rip Van Winkle of sleeper prospects. Awful contract, and a damaged arm (that honestly was good, but not great when healthy). Stroman was part of the Cubs going 'all in', and they are now bust. A purely cautionary tale for the fanbase (and hopefully the Twins) about committing all of your assets for years, because you won a few games in a row.

Best bet for the Twins is to look to teams with a deeper pitching inventory so they are trading position players (and prospects) for a very few arms. (Or heaven forbid, admit our team is improving, but not quite to championship level, and stand pat.)

Yes, it is tougher, but as the Cruz trade showed last year, positions-for-arms can be done; if we get hooked on sending out our pitching future for 'all in' desperation plays, we won't be long in returning to where the Cubs now dwell.

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Eek. Where the Cubs want to be is both instructional, and a warning for the local nine. Robertson should be a target of interest, but this club also could have signed him last offseason, and if they send a good prospect, they'll essentially be giving up a good prospect, and likely a pitching prospect for 20-ish innings.

So maybe this offseason, consider signing a Robertson or two at moderate pay to establish a floor under a recently terrible 'pen. (And if the Twins are terrible, you can flip them.)

Stroman should be the Rip Van Winkle of sleeper prospects. Awful contract, and a damaged arm (that honestly was good, but not great when healthy). Stroman was part of the Cubs going 'all in', and they are now bust. A purely cautionary tale for the fanbase (and hopefully the Twins) about committing all of your assets for years, because you won a few games in a row.

Best bet for the Twins is to look to teams with a deeper pitching inventory so they are trading position players (and prospects) for a very few arms. (Or heaven forbid, admit our team is improving, but not quite to championship level, and stand pat.)

Yes, it is tougher, but as the Cruz trade showed last year, positions-for-arms can be done; if we get hooked on sending out our pitching future for 'all in' desperation plays, we won't be long in returning to where the Cubs now dwell.

Ya gotta take a shot at some point.  Fear is not a position to be operating from.

[nicksaviking]

I could see the Twins dealing for a Cubs catcher, but Yan Gomes seems more likely to me. He's the defensive back up with experience everyone seems to like and he's affordably under contract next year. Dreadful offensively this year, but normally he's been average. 

Obviously it wouldn't be a needle moving trade, but could make sense on the smaller scale for this year and next.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, MTV said:

Extra sleeper target: Ian Happ. Incredibly consistent switch-hitting bat, can play both Center and Left at a high level and allows for Larnach and Celestino to become trade candidates.

I like your thinking, he is a switch hitter under control though next year, That would free up a trade with Larnach and a pitching prospect for a controllable pitcher.

[PatPfund]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Ya gotta take a shot at some point.  Fear is not a position to be operating from.

Agreed, but that isn't the same as 'you have to go all-in every time you have a pair of jacks.'

Look, I"m enjoying this year as a great rebound from last year's terrible Twins. But I'm also not blind.

This is a solidly middle AL team. There isn't one Twins starting pitcher I'd put in the AL top 20. The 'pen is dreadful. The hitting is statistically great, but they also get shutout more than pretty much everyone. Fielding zooms from the sublime to the stupefying. We're lucky if the catchers throw out two base-stealers in a month. Our base-running is often a travesty. (My favorite part of the Twins' 8-5 triple play recently was that for once, we weren't the team running around like deranged Little Leaguers.)

We are not a player away from winning it all, but we do show signs of being good with a better future (assuming we don't throw it all away, like... you know, the Cubs). This team, with full years from Maeda, Winder, Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff; and majority years from Paddach and Lewis should be much better even with Correa gone. I'm looking forward to seeing that team just as much as I am watching the rest of this year play out. Additions or no.

Plus, if you are taking "shots" because you are afraid someone will think you are 'operating from a position of fear', then that is exactly what you ARE doing.

[Doctor Gast]

Cubs check off a few boxes, a closer Robertson, catcher Contreras, OF Happ and a starter Stroman. I agree with your priority Robertson is a must, Contreras is needed, Stroman is worth taking a close look at and his trade value could make it worthwhile even if Cubs buy him down. If Happ is a Cave type CF I'd pass but if it's on the same level as Gordon I'd bite.

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Agreed, but that isn't the same as 'you have to go all-in every time you have a pair of jacks.'

Look, I"m enjoying this year as a great rebound from last year's terrible Twins. But I'm also not blind.

This is a solidly middle AL team. There isn't one Twins starting pitcher I'd put in the AL top 20. The 'pen is dreadful. The hitting is statistically great, but they also get shutout more than pretty much everyone. Fielding zooms from the sublime to the stupefying. We're lucky if the catchers throw out two base-stealers in a month. Our base-running is often a travesty. (My favorite part of the Twins' 8-5 triple play recently was that for once, we weren't the team running around like deranged Little Leaguers.)

We are not a player away from winning it all, but we do show signs of being good with a better future (assuming we don't throw it all away, like... you know, the Cubs). This team, with full years from Maeda, Winder, Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff; and majority years from Paddach and Lewis should be much better even with Correa gone. I'm looking forward to seeing that team just as much as I am watching the rest of this year play out. Additions or no.

Plus, if you are taking "shots" because you are afraid someone will think you are 'operating from a position of fear', then that is exactly what you ARE doing.

"This is a solidly middle AL team" are words that aptly described the 1987 & 1991 Twins.  You're not "taking shots" because you're afraid. You're "taking shots" to win.  Not taking shots is what you do because you're afraid you're going to give up something that you'll wish you still had down the road.

[PatPfund]

On 7/22/2022 at 7:29 PM, dxpavelka said:

"This is a solidly middle AL team" are words that aptly described the 1987 & 1991 Twins.  You're not "taking shots" because you're afraid. You're "taking shots" to win.  Not taking shots is what you do because you're afraid you're going to give up something that you'll wish you still had down the road.

You probably should check up on Twins history. The '87 Twins were middling all right (85-77). And the only significant move the Twins made was to add Don Baylor for a low prospect (player to be named later, the famous Enrique Rios). Totally gutless inactivity driven by fear no doubt!

The '91 Twins were NOT middling; they had the MLB's longest win streak (15 games, which you can see ending in A Few Good Men, damn that movie!), and finished 28 games over .500. They also lived in even more fear than the '87 Twins, because they made no trade deadline moves of significance. Cowards!

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, PatPfund said:

You probably should check up on Twins history. The '87 Twins were middling all right (85-77). And the only significant move the Twins made was to add Don Baylor for a low prospect (player to be named later, the famous Enrique Rios). Totally gutless inactivity driven by fear no doubt!

The '91 Twins were NOT middling; they had the MLB's longest win streak (15 games, which you can see ending in A Few Good Men, damn that movie!), and finished 28 games over .500. They also lived in even more fear than the '87 Twins, because they made no trade deadline moves of significance. Cowards!

Actually the 87 Twins made a number of moves that year, many of them just before the season.  Al Newman, Dan Gladden, Jeff Reardon, Senor Smoke, Tom Nieto all added shortly before the season.  Sal Butera added in May. Traded for Joe Niekro in June, Steve Carlton in July and the Baylor trade on September 1.  91 Twins also made their big moves before the season.  Chilli Davis, Jack Morris.  Just for the record they also had a 10 game losing streak that year.  They may not have been a "middling" team that year but NOBODY thought they had a snowball's chance in hell of getting by the Jays that year and even less chance of them beating the Pirates if they did.  Can't call them out for not making deadline moves when they won the damn World Series.

[PatPfund]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Actually the 87 Twins made a number of moves that year, many of them just before the season.  Al Newman, Dan Gladden, Jeff Reardon, Senor Smoke, Tom Nieto all added shortly before the season.  Sal Butera added in May. Traded for Joe Niekro in June, Steve Carlton in July and the Baylor trade on September 1.  91 Twins also made their big moves before the season.  Chilli Davis, Jack Morris.  Just for the record they also had a 10 game losing streak that year.  They may not have been a "middling" team that year but NOBODY thought they had a snowball's chance in hell of getting by the Jays that year and even less chance of them beating the Pirates if they did.  Can't call them out for not making deadline moves when they won the damn World Series.

Well, I was alive and following the Twins in both '87 and '91. Nobody considered the '87 team a massive threat to take it all, especially when they clinched, then ended the year on a losing streak.

But you are 100% wrong about '91. It was a very good team, a team with a better record than the favored Blue Jays. Here is a sentence from the Wikipedia entry on the '91 ALCS: "Newspapers were predicting a series of tense and close contests in the following ALCS, as the Twins seemed to have the slightly stronger team, but the Blue Jays had won the season series between the two teams 8-4."

So hardly the "snowball's chance" of your memory. Your point about the Twins making off season moves doesn't really fit here, since we are talking trade deadline moves, not offseason where the prices are more reasonable. (Who ever said a team should make no moves in the off-season? Certainly not me.) Maybe you consider Sal, Joe, and the body of Steve Carlton to be of significance; I don't (though the Niekro nail file incident was hilarious).

And your last sentence makes my point exactly. I'm not calling them cowards, but ironically applying your 'no moves means you live in fear' standard. My original point (maybe obscured in all the back and forth) is that we shouldn't make moves just to make moves. That is how the Cubs ended up giving $70 million to a solid, but health challenged pitcher like Stroman (just because you pay for an ace doesn't add talent to the signee). And helped wreck their team (along with other 'all in' moves).

I'm all over this site in advocating for acquiring a #1-#2 starter, and paying for it (no, Mahle doesn't meet that standard, but a healthy Montas or Castillo would, and so would others). If we can't make a trade like that, I'm for holding on to prospects, and making stronger moves in the offseason (we'll likely have Correa's salary to play with), and come back better next year.

[dxpavelka]

29 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Well, I was alive and following the Twins in both '87 and '91. Nobody considered the '87 team a massive threat to take it all, especially when they clinched, then ended the year on a losing streak.

But you are 100% wrong about '91. It was a very good team, a team with a better record than the favored Blue Jays. Here is a sentence from the Wikipedia entry on the '91 ALCS: "Newspapers were predicting a series of tense and close contests in the following ALCS, as the Twins seemed to have the slightly stronger team, but the Blue Jays had won the season series between the two teams 8-4."

So hardly the "snowball's chance" of your memory. Your point about the Twins making off season moves doesn't really fit here, since we are talking trade deadline moves, not offseason where the prices are more reasonable. (Who ever said a team should make no moves in the off-season? Certainly not me.) Maybe you consider Sal, Joe, and the body of Steve Carlton to be of significance; I don't (though the Niekro nail file incident was hilarious).

And your last sentence makes my point exactly. I'm not calling them cowards, but ironically applying your 'no moves means you live in fear' standard. My original point (maybe obscured in all the back and forth) is that we shouldn't make moves just to make moves. That is how the Cubs ended up giving $70 million to a solid, but health challenged pitcher like Stroman (just because you pay for an ace doesn't add talent to the signee). And helped wreck their team (along with other 'all in' moves).

I'm all over this site in advocating for acquiring a #1-#2 starter, and paying for it (no, Mahle doesn't meet that standard, but a healthy Montas or Castillo would, and so would others). If we can't make a trade like that, I'm for holding on to prospects, and making stronger moves in the offseason (we'll likely have Correa's salary to play with), and come back better next year.

Actually, you DID call them cowards.  And whether we get Montas or Castillo, I'd STILL try to make other moves.  There are probably going to be a dozen to a dozen and a half teams in contention and looking to be buyers.  Saying that if we, or any of the other dozen plus contenders, have no shot if they don't get Montas or Castillo is preposterous.  Call the common man. Kris Bryant didn't bring a trophy to the Giants last year.  Craig Kimbrel didn't bring one to the south side.  Jose Berrios didn't bring a ring to Canada.  Nor did Brad Hand.  Cesar Hernandez didn't take the south siders to the promised land.  Joey Gallo didn't bring one to the big apple and now could be had for an apple.  Eddie Escobar didn't bring one to beer town.  Kendall Graveman & Rafael Montero didn't bring one to H-Town.  Braves made a bunch of "B" moves and won the title.  I'd be just fine with a similar result.  Maybe they'd sell Eddie......