Trade Rumor: A Hypothetical Twins Trade for Luis Castillo from The Athletic

[tony&rodney]

The trade is fair and decent return for the Reds unless the Twins have already made it policy to not pay  pitchers past their arbitration years. Castillo has talent and experience that is missing from the team. This trade, or another, is the only way to get that talent.

Coming into 2022, Winder was my favorite young pitcher but he will not likely be as strong as Castillo.

[Karbo]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I like Winder's potential a lot. If everything went his way, like literally everything, he could be a top of the rotation guy. I think he profiles better as a mid rotation guy, but he's had shoulder issues in two consecutive years. That's a major red flag to me. If Winder's shoulder can't handle the starter workload consistently, it means he's going to be in the bullpen and the value he brings at that point is heavily diminished.

How is it that so many of our pitching prospects have arm problems?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

How is it that so many of our pitching prospects have arm problems?

The Twins aren't the only team with a lot of pitcher injuries.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

How is it that so many of our pitching prospects have arm problems?

Not sure. It seems possible adding 5-7mph of fastball velocity through mechanical changes (Twins method) just eats up arms for pitchers who are learning to change their approach in their 20s.

[bean5302]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Winning the division two of the last three years, and leading this year, and you fire him? Tough boss. I'm constantly amazed at this site.

Oh yeah, that's exactly what I said. Hey, when you have no argument, the best option is to create a strawman, amirite?

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Oh yeah, that's exactly what I said. Hey, when you have no argument, the best option is to create a strawman, amirite?

Clearly I misunderstood. Apologies. I thought you said fire Falvey over the pitching pipeline. 

[Brandon]

Yep

[Minderbinder]

Three prospects for a two-month rental?  Who is Rosecrans' supplier?

[USAFChief]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Not sure. It seems possible adding 5-7mph of fastball velocity through mechanical changes (Twins method) just eats up arms for pitchers who are learning to change their approach in their 20s.

It's an interesting theory. 

But FTR, I don't think they're adding "5-7 MPH. "

More like 1-3.

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

It's an interesting theory. 

But FTR, I don't think they're adding "5-7 MPH. "

More like 1-3.

 

I seem to recall Winder was throwing 91ish out of college and was hitting 97mph before this season. His FB averaged 95mph so far this year.

[Karbo]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Not sure. It seems possible adding 5-7mph of fastball velocity through mechanical changes (Twins method) just eats up arms for pitchers who are learning to change their approach in their 20s.

If that is the case, maybe its time to change!

[bean5302]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Clearly I misunderstood. Apologies. I thought you said fire Falvey over the pitching pipeline. 

I said if the loss of a 7th round pick was enough to gut the Twins' pitching pipeline, that's enough to fire Falvey

If that were the case, his front office had utterly failed to draft/develop good pitchers which is a big part of the reason he was hired. I'm not calling for Falvey's head if he trades Winder as I don't think I can make a judgement on what's behind Winder or declare Winder on his own raises the performance of Falvey's front office.

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I said if the loss of a 7th round pick was enough to gut the Twins' pitching pipeline, that's enough to fire Falvey

If that were the case, his front office had utterly failed to draft/develop good pitchers which is a big part of the reason he was hired. I'm not calling for Falvey's head if he trades Winder as I don't think I can make a judgement on what's behind Winder or declare Winder on his own raises the performance of Falvey's front office.

What does it matter when he was drafted? He's arguably the Twins third best starter. Trading your third best starter would impact most teams. Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran and Jax, have all debuted in the last two years and have been among the team's best pitchers. Much better than most of the vets in fact.

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

What does it matter when he was drafted? He's arguably the Twins third best starter. Trading your third best starter would impact most teams. Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran and Jax, have all debuted in the last two years and have been among the team's best pitchers. Much better than most of the vets in fact.

Yes. It matters if we're talking about a 7th round pick being the only thing of significant value in the pitching pipeline drafted by Falvey's front office. If the front office hasn't been able to make anything stick in the upper rounds of drafting, that's a problem. Maybe you think relying on late round draft picks exclusively for drafted pitching talent is sustainable. I don't think it probably is because I don't think Falvey and his front office and teams are so incredibly far ahead of the curve they can outperform every other team in MLB by a mile that way.

Side note, I didn't say trading Winder wouldn't impact the team, especially since I believe Winder has the potential to be the best arm in our rotation right now. Today. To ignore him being shut down with shoulder issues the past two years and assume Winder can max his potential out is riskier than betting an elite arm will continue to be an elite arm IMHO. 

Again, we're talking about a hypothetical since Winder on his own should not gut the Twins pitching pipeline. If you believe it will and the Twins have nothing good coming down the way, that's a problem for Falvey.

[specialiststeve]

You have to give quality to recieve quality... 

I would be more inclined to deal Winder than Simion-Richardson.. he has terrific stuff and has mid to upper rotation ability. 

Steer has been great but he is blocked at this point .. where is he fitting in? I would do Winder, Steer and a lower level pitcher or lower level bat to go with  him... both... 2 ready made MLB guys and 2 lower level guys should do it. NEED an ace which we clearly don't have... Ryan and Gray are good pitchers but are both #3 starters... 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. It matters if we're talking about a 7th round pick being the only thing of significant value in the pitching pipeline drafted by Falvey's front office. If the front office hasn't been able to make anything stick in the upper rounds of drafting, that's a problem. Maybe you think relying on late round draft picks exclusively for drafted pitching talent is sustainable. I don't think it probably is because I don't think Falvey and his front office and teams are so incredibly far ahead of the curve they can outperform every other team in MLB by a mile that way.

Side note, I didn't say trading Winder wouldn't impact the team, especially since I believe Winder has the potential to be the best arm in our rotation right now. Today. To ignore him being shut down with shoulder issues the past two years and assume Winder can max his potential out is riskier than betting an elite arm will continue to be an elite arm IMHO. 

Again, we're talking about a hypothetical since Winder on his own should not gut the Twins pitching pipeline. If you believe it will and the Twins have nothing good coming down the way, that's a problem for Falvey.

The pitching pipeline is thin at the top BECAUSE Ryan, Duran, Winder, Ober and Jax have all recently graduated to non-prospects. God forbid Balazovic or Canterino underperform or get injured. Fire the front office, the next two guys in line are struggling! Let's just call the whole thing a bust and pretend the guys right behind them in the pipeline aren't pushing their way right past them.

Enough with this pet project of yours. There are other things to discuss on this site and this tangent is completely off topic.

[SwainZag]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The pitching pipeline is thin at the top BECAUSE Ryan, Duran, Winder, Ober and Jax have all recently graduated to non-prospects. God forbid Balazovic or Canterino underperform or get injured. Fire the front office, the next two guys in line are struggling! Let's just call the whole thing a bust and pretend the guys right behind them in the pipeline aren't pushing their way right past them.

Enough with this pet project of yours. There are other things to discuss on this site and this tangent is completely off topic.

To add onto that Chase Petty directly got them Sonny Gray, who is more of less the ace of the staff.  Gray won't be technically listed as someone in the pipeline, but a draft pick got him to Minnesota as well. 

[Steve Lein]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I said if the loss of a 7th round pick was enough to gut the Twins' pitching pipeline, that's enough to fire Falvey

If that were the case, his front office had utterly failed to draft/develop good pitchers which is a big part of the reason he was hired. I'm not calling for Falvey's head if he trades Winder as I don't think I can make a judgement on what's behind Winder or declare Winder on his own raises the performance of Falvey's front office.

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. It matters if we're talking about a 7th round pick being the only thing of significant value in the pitching pipeline drafted by Falvey's front office. If the front office hasn't been able to make anything stick in the upper rounds of drafting, that's a problem. Maybe you think relying on late round draft picks exclusively for drafted pitching talent is sustainable. I don't think it probably is because I don't think Falvey and his front office and teams are so incredibly far ahead of the curve they can outperform every other team in MLB by a mile that way.

See, I would categorize this as a major success in Falvey drafting/developing a good pitcher, not a failure. Where he was drafted should have, literally zero, bearing on the value of the guy they have now. 

What you're missing in this assessment, is who have the Twins even drafted as a pitcher in higher rounds to expect Falvey to have "been able to make anything stick"? The list since 2017 when Falvey took over is the following (Winder was drafted in 2018):

Landon Leach (Rd. 2)
Blayne Enlow (Rd. 3)
Charlie Barnes (Rd. 4)
Cole Sands (Rd. 5, and only pitcher they drafted before Winder)
Matt Canterino (Rd. 2)
Sawyer Gipson-Long (Rd. 6)
Marco Raya (Rd. 4)
Chase Petty (Rd. 1, traded for Sonny Gray)
Steve Hajjar (Rd. 2)
Cade Povich (Rd. 3)
Christian Macleod (Rd. 5)
Travis Adams (Rd. 6)

That's it. That's the list.

And only 5 of those names I would even call one's that could have even reached the majors by now (and 2 of them have).

So like...who do you think the Twins had invested draft capital into that came with expectations to be more than Winder has been by this point? Because the reality is it's basically nobody.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Steve Lein

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

To add onto that Chase Petty directly got them Sonny Gray, who is more of less the ace of the staff.  Gray won't be technically listed as someone in the pipeline, but a draft pick got him to Minnesota as well. 

If you are going down that path, they could make this trade and claim Castillo is part of of the pipeline as well, since it was Winder and SWR/Berrios that got Castillo?

Does the pipe line look better with Castillo, Gray, Ryan, Ober or Gray, Ryan, Winder, Ober? The first looks better this year and next, probably not so much after that though.

[bean5302]

58 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

See, I would categorize this as a major success in Falvey drafting/developing a good pitcher, not a failure. Where he was drafted should have, literally zero, bearing on the value of the guy they have now. 

What you're missing in this assessment, is who have the Twins even drafted as a pitcher in higher rounds to expect Falvey to have "been able to make anything stick"? The list since 2017 when Falvey took over is the following (Winder was drafted in 2018):

Landon Leach (Rd. 2)
Blayne Enlow (Rd. 3)
Charlie Barnes (Rd. 4)
Cole Sands (Rd. 5, and only pitcher they drafted before Winder)
Matt Canterino (Rd. 2)
Sawyer Gipson-Long (Rd. 6)
Marco Raya (Rd. 4)
Chase Petty (Rd. 1, traded for Sonny Gray)
Steve Hajjar (Rd. 2)
Cade Povich (Rd. 3)
Christian Macleod (Rd. 5)
Travis Adams (Rd. 6)

That's it. That's the list.

And only 5 of those names I would even call one's that could have even reached the majors by now (and 2 of them have).

So like...who do you think the Twins had invested draft capital into that came with expectations to be more than Winder has been by this point? Because the reality is it's basically nobody.

I swear... it's like people try their hardest not to read what I wrote.

[tony&rodney]

Well, maybe unlikely but trade for Castillo. The hypothetical trade seems fair for both teams, the goal. Substitute Balazovic or Canterino for Winder, that's fine too.

[big dog]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I swear... it's like people try their hardest not to read what I wrote.

I'll just toss out that if everyone misinterprets what the writer believes s/he said, it might not entirely be the fault of the readers.

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, big dog said:

I'll just toss out that if everyone misinterprets what the writer believes s/he said, it might not entirely be the fault of the readers.

I think like everything else people want to hear what they want to hear. In this case I believe I understood beans point, and was confused at Steve's thread. But other times I am the one hearing something different.

[TopGunn#22]

If the Reds are willing to make this trade you do it in a heartbeat !!!  They are all great prospects.  I especially like what I've seen from Winder this year, but you don't add an ACE like Castillo without giving something up.  And at this point, except for the limited look we've had of Winder (which has been good) the other two haven't accomplished a thing at the major league level. 

Did any of you NOT wanting to do this trade happen to notice the 13-K, shutdown performance against the hated Yankees a couple of weeks ago from Castillo ?  We haven't won a playoff game in how many years?  Going forward, a staff of Castillo, Ryan and Gray with Maeda available for 2023 would be as solid as any Twins staff they've had in their history.  And in this trade you don't give up Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda, Lewis or Martin.  Come On !  Stop fretting about giving up a couple "prospects" to land a pitcher of this caliber. 

Sign Castillo to an extension for more money than you would ever have given Berrios, because he's 3-times the pitcher.  Stop over thinking this.  I would have commented sooner but I've been in Cooperstown welcoming from favorite Twins player (Tony Oliva) into the Hall of Fame.  Just got home at 2:45am last night, but had to weigh in on this. Steer, Winder and SWR ?  In. A. Heartbeat.  

[nicksaviking]

I won't give up Winder for Castillo. I like Winder, but not so much that I wouldn't trade him. The problem is if Winder is traded for Castillo, the Twins are committing to two of Archer, Bundy and Smeltzer in the rotation the rest of the year. I don't care who the top three arms are, that's just not acceptable.

But, if the Twins could get both Castillo AND Mahle, I'd be interested in a mega deal even headlined by Royce Lewis. Lewis, Winder, Larnach, SWR? Maybe another lower prospect or so? That'd have to get the Reds attention.

[TopGunn#22]

It looks like the Twins MIGHT be shutting Winder down for the year as his shoulder is still bothering him.  So now, it doesn't look like the Twins will be able to use Winder themselves OR as a trade chip.  Just can't catch a break.  All this "Max Effort" pitching is ruining a LOT of young pitchers.  

[Rosterman]

Seattle put together a nice little package.  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/mariners-finalizing-acquisition-of-luis-castillo-from-reds.html

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Seattle put together a nice little package.  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/mariners-finalizing-acquisition-of-luis-castillo-from-reds.html

Twins didn’t have that much prospect capital to begin with 

[ChermesZ]

15 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Twins didn’t have that much prospect capital to begin with 

I think that dooms our trading this year.  With that high a price tag, the twins might bow out of all trade possibilities…

 

if I were a seller, I’d hold out for something like what they gave up.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 minute ago, ChermesZ said:

I think that dooms our trading this year.  With that high a price tag, the twins might bow out of all trade possibilities…

 

if I were a seller, I’d hold out for something like what they gave up.

Part of the high price tag was pulling the trigger ahead of the deadline. That was clearly “there’s no possible way of getting more, so why hold out for more”.