Trade Rumor: Twins still linked to Frankie Montas

[Otto von Ballpark]

Montas was a popular trade target this past spring, with control through the 2023 season, but has remained in Oakland thus far. He was shut down for shoulder inflammation on July 3, but is scheduled to start again this Thursday July 21.

Is it worth trading for another starter with possible health issues? Or should the Twins target someone more reliable?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/19/even-without-juan-soto-mlb-trade-market-is-well-stocked/

View full trade rumor

[chpettit19]

As always, it comes down to price. Does the shoulder mean teams back off and aren't willing to offer as much? Is Oakland willing to take a lesser package now or would they hold onto until the winter and hope to get more then? Certainly should be keeping a close eye on his starts before the deadline to see what the arm looks like, though.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

As always, it comes down to price. Does the shoulder mean teams back off and aren't willing to offer as much? Is Oakland willing to take a lesser package now or would they hold onto until the winter and hope to get more then? Certainly should be keeping a close eye on his starts before the deadline to see what the arm looks like, though.

Agreed, it depends on price. While I’d love to see Montas in a Twins uni, usually pitching prospects are the currency of trades like this. With the risk of injury, depleting depth becomes even riskier.

Considering how much injury risk in the rotation, the Twins currently have, I would be very averse to including high minors starters like Winder/Ober that I’m sure Oakland would insist upon.
 

if they could swing it with lower minors pitching, I’d be very interested.

[KirbyDome89]

12 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, it depends on price. While I’d love to see Montas in a Twins uni, usually pitching prospects are the currency of trades like this. With the risk of injury, depleting depth becomes even riskier.

Considering how much injury risk in the rotation, the Twins currently have, I would be very averse to including high minors starters like Winder/Ober that I’m sure Oakland would insist upon.
 

if they could swing it with lower minors pitching, I’d be very interested.

What pitching prospects (I'm not counting Ryan) do the Twins have that you feel great about right now? I'm asking honestly. Balazovic is a mess, SWR regressed quickly after a nice start and he's hurt, and Canterino looks destined for a bullpen role after getting hurt again this year. Guys like Varland, Sands, ect are probably pen pieces. Something could break right there, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I doubt Oakland has much interest in Ober. He's been injury prone since his collegiate career began, he's thrown 33 innings this year, and his ceiling is back end rotation piece. He's likely worth more to MN than anyone else at this point. 

I'm not marking Montas as the guy, but the pitching outlook doesn't match a lot of the hype it has gotten. Those guys were supposed to be depth this year too, and most of them have been to injured/ineffective to be relied on a la last year. I wouldn't be too afraid to spend some of that currency on a rotation staple is what I'm saying. 

[Game7-91]

4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What pitching prospects (I'm not counting Ryan) do the Twins have that you feel great about right now?

That's a fair question. Guess we will find out in 2 weeks if any sellers project Twins pitching prospects in the way we do. Speculating here, but the most asked abt player from Twins, for Castillo or Montas, would be AK, after that maybe CES, Wallner, Steer. Just cant see Cin or Oak demanding any of our pit hing pipeline other than as 3rd or 4th pieces. They will want AK and move on when told no.

[TopGunn#22]

I would have to say Kirilloff is untouchable at this point.  As in the "Wonder Years" when Kevin's friend told him when trading Baseball Cards "McCovey is OFF THE TABLE !!"  

Larnach and Miranda, to me, are their two biggest trade chips.  Hoping someone is also enamored with Ober, Balazovic or SWR.  There's really no way for us TD'ers to know what players teams like the Reds or A's covet.  We will find out soon enough though.  I'd try to make a layup like Bard for Sabato first and then start jacking up 3-point bombs in the hope the Twins could land a Castillo or Montas.  

[Blyleven2011]

If the twins are interested  in montas  it is bcause he is injured  or could be injured goods ....

That's an MO of the FO ...

[Greglw3]

10 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would have to say Kirilloff is untouchable at this point.  As in the "Wonder Years" when Kevin's friend told him when trading Baseball Cards "McCovey is OFF THE TABLE !!"  

Larnach and Miranda, to me, are their two biggest trade chips.  Hoping someone is also enamored with Ober, Balazovic or SWR.  There's really no way for us TD'ers to know what players teams like the Reds or A's covet.  We will find out soon enough though.  I'd try to make a layup like Bard for Sabato first and then start jacking up 3-point bombs in the hope the Twins could land a Castillo or Montas.  

 I would say that under no circumstances should the Twins even consider moving Miranda. I would only trade Kirilloff (maybe) if they can get an agreement with Montas on at least a 3 year extension and be supremely confident that he’s healthy. And if they included Laureano as well.

Ober and Kirilloff for Montas and Laureano? Is that fair? I’d rather they take Kepler before Kirilloff, however.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

 I would say that under no circumstances should the Twins even consider moving Miranda. I would only trade Kirilloff (maybe) if they can get an agreement with Montas on at least a 3 year extension and be supremely confident that he’s healthy. And if they included Laureano as well.

Ober and Kirilloff for Montas and Laureano? Is that fair? I’d rather they take Kepler before Kirilloff, however.

The trade simulator makes it not even close (AK - 24.3), Ober (15.2), Laureano (45.5) and Montas (27.1), not sure way it has Laureano so how, I would rather have AK than him.

It looks like the trade simulator isn't a fan of the Twins in general. Polanco is the top guy at 39.4, Arraez 32, Ryan 32, Laranch 28, then Lewis, AK, Kepler, Miranda, Jeffers, Winder, Correa, Ober, Duran.

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The trade simulator makes it not even close (AK - 24.3), Ober (15.2), Laureano (45.5) and Montas (27.1), not sure way it has Laureano so how, I would rather have AK than him.

If Laureano has the most trade value out of all four of those players, I guess it's time to scrap that fun trade value site. He hasn't done anything in four seasons and isn't particularly good at any aspect of the game. He should have the lowest value of those players, by a lot.

[Greglw3]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The trade simulator makes it not even close (AK - 24.3), Ober (15.2), Laureano (45.5) and Montas (27.1), not sure way it has Laureano so how, I would rather have AK than him.

It looks like the trade simulator isn't a fan of the Twins in general. Polanco is the top guy at 39.4, Arraez 32, Ryan 32, Laranch 28, then Lewis, AK, Kepler, Miranda, Jeffers, Winder, Correa, Ober, Duran.

 look at Laureano’s current stats, no way is he worth 45.5. That’s nuts! And he’s worth significantly more than Arraez???? I’d say cancel the subscription to that trade simulator. I’ve seen many times when they have had outrageous evaluations. Great idea. Totally unreliable. To me worthless.

[Shaitan]

I don't see it happening. Maybe I'm thinking of their previous regime, but it seems like OAK always asks for the moon in return on trades.

That, and I'm not personally convinced his past two seasons mean he's the real deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Laureano is a good player -- 115 wRC+ this year, 118 career, also steals some bases and plays a decent CF, just turned 28. His counting stats have been suppressed a bit due to non-injury issues -- he was a late-season call-up in 2018, pandemic 2020, then a PED suspension that spanned 2021-2022. (Also he plays in a pitcher's park in Oakland, in an era of low batting averages.)

Here are his prorated WAR numbers over a full season of team games (so this includes injuries and rest):

2018*: 6.5 fWAR, 6.9 bWAR
2019: 3.9 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR
2020*: 3.0 fWAR, 4.1 bWAR
2021*: 2.5 fWAR, 3.9 bWAR
2022*: 2.9 fWAR, 2.0 bWAR

The suspension also cost him enough service time to push back his free agency by a year. (The suspension may also keep his arbitration salaries lower too.)

I don't know if that adds up to $45 mil of future surplus value, but he's a good/valuable player right now.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 7/19/2022 at 6:04 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

What pitching prospects (I'm not counting Ryan) do the Twins have that you feel great about right now? I'm asking honestly.

 

 

I feel great about Chase Petty? Oh never mind. 

[FlyingFinn]

On 7/19/2022 at 5:04 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

What pitching prospects (I'm not counting Ryan) do the Twins have that you feel great about right now?

SWR (still 21), Festa, Povich, Hajjar, Raya - all 22 or younger. The Twins had 3 or 4 at least partial graduates to the big leagues this year - Duran, Jax, Moran and Ryan. Balazovic is the big disappointment this year. I'm hoping that Canterino (in the bullpen), one of Sands/Varland, and Festa make the jump next year to the Twins for at least part of the season. Not counting the Saints, there are a lot of good, not great, pitchers in our minor leagues. Less of this group will make it through to the Twins but 1 every year from this group would be good (Jax would be the one I would have classified here - honestly, I didn't think he could pitch as well as he's doing this year).

[PatPfund]

I don't get the Laureano talk (almost twice as valuable as Montas is goofy, especially for a 28 y.o. player who has played more 90 games once in his career, and whose best stats were back before he got caught cheating with PEDs, but I don't really care since...)

...We don't need to pay prospects to get another outfielder. We also shouldn't even be thinking Montas until he shows after 2-3 starts he can help us THIS year. If he can't, and we aren't sure about next year, then I'd top my offer at Drew Strotman (and be fine if/when the A's sucker somebody else).

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

SWR (still 21), Festa, Povich, Hajjar, Raya - all 22 or younger. The Twins had 3 or 4 at least partial graduates to the big leagues this year - Duran, Jax, Moran and Ryan. Balazovic is the big disappointment this year. I'm hoping that Canterino (in the bullpen), one of Sands/Varland, and Festa make the jump next year to the Twins for at least part of the season. Not counting the Saints, there are a lot of good, not great, pitchers in our minor leagues. Less of this group will make it through to the Twins but 1 every year from this group would be good (Jax would be the one I would have classified here - honestly, I didn't think he could pitch as well as he's doing this year).

You feel great about guys like Povich or Festa being major contributors, or are they just next on the list? This is what, year 5 as a pro and year 4 playing for SWR? Yeah, he's young and I'm not advocating for giving up on the guy, but he's struggling during a repeat of AA after being shut down because he was performing so poorly last year. 

If you're not going to commit to high end pitching then you need to be developing it, at least semi consistently. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Larnach and Winder are the two trade chips that I'd offer.  I think AK has the chance to be something special.  I think Larnach is always going to be susceptible to offspeed stuff.  Winder seems like he's Tommy John waiting to happen......

[ashbury]

37 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Winder seems like he's Tommy John waiting to happen......

They have TJ procedure for shoulders now?

[cheeseheadgophfan]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

They have TJ procedure for shoulders now?

Ahhhh....good one.  You got me.  Rotator cuff would've been the proper term, and worse result for Winder.

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Ahhhh....good one.  You got me.  Rotator cuff would've been the proper term, and worse result for Winder.

Indeed. 

Which might explain my lukewarm attitude toward spending a lot in prospect capital on Montas.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

15 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Indeed. 

Which might explain my lukewarm attitude toward spending a lot in prospect capital on Montas.

I would agree with you....my post was in general I would use Larnach and Winder as trade chips in any deal, even though i know this is a Montas thread.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Larnach and Winder are the two trade chips that I'd offer.  I think AK has the chance to be something special.  I think Larnach is always going to be susceptible to offspeed stuff.  Winder seems like he's Tommy John waiting to happen......

Two injured players? I doubt the A's want that.

Which is fine, I don't want Montas. Check out his road numbers, he's never been anything other than average at best away from Oakland. It's a gimmick ballpark which benefits their pitchers significantly; I'll never trust trading for their starters.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Two injured players? I doubt the A's want that.

Which is fine, I don't want Montas. Check out his road numbers, he's never been anything other than average at best away from Oakland. It's a gimmick ballpark which benefits their pitchers significantly; I'll never trust trading for their starters.

Oakland and Colorado should embark on a series of trades, year after year, the A's looking for sure-fire hitting and the Rox looking for reliable pitching....