Twins Thrilled with Draft's First Night

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

If we are truly the most likely team to get Montas then yes this is going to be painful on the prospect side with 2 to 3 major prospects.  It will be more than what we received from Toronto for Berrios.  

Yes, I agree that it will take 2-3 players to get Montas or Castillo. However, the farm system exists to develop future major league athletes or serve as players used to trade for the needs of the MLB roster. The Twins need a couple of relief pitchers and Castillo/Montas would be icing. When individuals get too concerned about a glut of position players, consider that some teams see value in a trade. Hopefully we read about some moves during the break, but certainly Falvey should make a few trades before August 1. 

The first day of the draft was amazing in my view and Jeremy was right on when he noted that Carlos Correa was our choice for the third round. Correa is already showing value rarely found at that pick too.

[James]

39 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Lewis becomes more expendable if we can come to an agreement with Correa in the 3-5-7 year range.  

That's a big if.  And even if you can sign him long term, I don't think Lewis is the kind of guy you give up on.  

[SteveLV]

Barring injury, Correa is gone.

Unless you think the Twins are going to pony up a monstrous, long-term contract.  Which they shouldn't and will not do.

Boras is going to maximize Correa's income and security.  And he should, and he will.

 

[Doctor Gast]

The draft result was better than I expected. Although I like Lee, I'd still pick Parada over him because Parada grades out higher and we need a top of the line catcher. Lee is smart & has the saavy, that has got him this high in the ranks but it won't pan out in the MLB, he won't stick at SS so I won't pick him over Parada.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The draft result was better than I expected. Although I like Lee, I'd still pick Parada over him because Parada grades out higher and we need a top of the line catcher. Lee is smart & has the saavy, that has got him this high in the ranks but it won't pan out in the MLB, he won't stick at SS so I won't pick him over Parada.

Where are you seeing Parada grade out higher than Lee? I don't think I've seen a single scouting service grade Parada over Lee in any category outside power. Parada is no more likely to stay at C than Lee is to stay at SS. I mean Fangraphs lists him as a LFer because they have so little faith in his ability to receive, block, or throw.

[Seansy]

From FG:

Twins got 1 of 4 55-60 prospects at 8

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0

Connor was ranked 27th (with tremendous variance)

Schobel 66. The fact that he outproduced Gavin Cross on the same team has been an interesting factoid to learn about him.

2022 MLB Draft: Day One Recap | FanGraphs Baseball

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Lewis becomes more expendable if we can come to an agreement with Correa in the 3-5-7 year range.  

IMO, the odds of Correa taking a 3-4 year deal is less than 5%. 5 years - less than 10%,  6 years 20-25%,  7+ years 75-80%.  The odds of the Twins signing him 10%.  How many times has a mid-market team signed a $250M+ player?  My guess is Correa gets close to $300M.

[bunsen82]

33 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

IMO, the odds of Correa taking a 3-4 year deal is less than 5%. 5 years - less than 10%,  6 years 20-25%,  7+ years 75-80%.  The odds of the Twins signing him 10%.  How many times has a mid-market team signed a $250M+ player?  My guess is Correa gets close to $300M.

The odds are low but not that low.  The Yankees are going to spend all their money on Judge.  They will not pay for a shortstop.  Boston does not necessarily need a shortstop as they just got Trevor Story for insurance.  The only new team willing to pay for a shortstop is the Cubs, Los Angeles   and ??????   There will be Correa, Turner, Swanson, and Bogarts.   Someone is going to take a smaller deal than they would like.  

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

Well right now at the MLB level they have Arraez, Polanco, Gordon, and MIranda, At AAA they have Lewis, Steer and Helman.  At AA they have Jullien and Martin with Strand a possible third baseman, At high A Severino, Holland, Rucker, Javier.  At A ball they have Miller and Perez and with their first pick tonight they have Lee.  Lets see that is about 16 players in line for three spots.  That's a lot of guys so I think they have that spot covered even if they don't pick Schobel there.  Even two to three years from now there doesn't look like there will be much room there.

I get your point best payer available and Schobel had a great season and probably worthy to go where he went but it doesn't do much for me when most of this teams talent in the system is already at that exact spot.  I was wrong last year about the Strand pick which I kind of thought was a waste and have been singing the draft teams praises as a steal there in hindsight.  Maybe I will end up doing the same with this pick once he gets to minor league ball and starts performing.  It is just that they are not always right either.  I didn't like the Sabato pick and that one hasn't worked out yet so not every move they make is perfect either.  Time will tell but my gut reaction is I think they could have done better strengthening another area.

All reasonable points. I see Miranda as being the likely full-time 3B next season, Polanco as being the full-time 2B again, and I have no idea how to even classify Arraez other than "hitter", but he does need a non-OF spot. Gordon is a useful player, but he's not going to block anyone in the future. (JMO) Lewis is looking like he really might be the SS of the future, and we need one. Steer maybe slots into the Miranda's current role for next year?

Everyone else AA and below has to prove it still, but if they're really kicking butt and demanding promotion and playing time...well, either they push out someone above them or serve as assets in a trade. Considering how the filter usually works, it's a little unusual that we end up with too many starting quality guys at the same time; injuries often take care of the problem if nothing else. Middle INF usually can slide out to other positions so long as they can hit enough, and they're not hitting they're unlikely to be creating a logjam?

Catcher is the one area where it's an issue and the organization needs to be careful to ensure they are drafting to support it, because I don't think you can shift too many guys down there. But otherwise, I'm still mostly on a "best player/prospect available" train.

(You 100% right on Sabato, who is increasingly looking like a bust.)

[Seth Stohs]

8 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Great article.  Very well researched and thought out.  Twins claiming they were very happy with the draft?  Really what do you expect them to say?  Like always only time will tell.  It's just as likely none of these players will ever play major league baseball. Let's hope they all pan out.  Good job guys on the article.

Of course, but it was very clear from how Sean Johnson said things, and the Noah Miller/Brooks Lee comp told me a lot. They loved Noah Miller, and this tells me they were thrilled with getting Lee. And, Priellip, I've talked to a few guys. They really like him and were surprised he was still there.  

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

They really like him and were surprised he was still there.  

Because of the nature of any draft, this will literally always be true, and not just PR.  For every team. 

Beyond the first few picks, every team evaluates their own way and their ranked list will be different from every other.  So, each player they pick is almost by definition one that every other team ranked lower than whom they respectively chose - but your team doesn't know this until after the fact and was sweating bullets that their guy would be sniped away from them.

#gametheory

[Ryan_K]

I know some are down on Lee given comments that he may not stick at SS and not convinced by the comments that the bat will play.

 

I would encourage those people to compare the 2015 draft profile of Alex Bergman vs Lee. Lee has same defense, arm, run, but is higher on contact and power. 

[bird]

9 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Do we really have a glut of utility guys, though? Maybe at the MLB/AAA level, but in 2-3 years, who knows? Of course, I'm guessing the Twins think that Schobel has a higher ceiling than that. If he really hits then he could be awfully interesting. I do think a player like him (again, if he hits) has a lot of flexibility to find a slot on the team going forward. I tend to not worry as much about where a guy might slot positionally most of the time when drafting, because you never really know where someone might end up. (The exception is catcher; trying to recall the last guy that wasn't drafted as a catcher who then shifted successfully to the position in the minors, and I'm stumped.)

Mack and Bechtold, to name a couple of catcher conversions still playing. Others will know for sure, but was Caleb Hamilton a conversion to catcher too. He just debuted with the big club as an injury replacement.

[FlyingFinn]

9 hours ago, Dman said:

Arraez, Polanco, Gordon, and MIranda, At AAA they have Lewis, Steer and Helman.  At AA they have Jullien and Martin with Strand a possible third baseman, At high A Severino, Holland, Rucker, Javier.  At A ball they have Miller and Perez and with their first pick tonight they have Lee.  Lets see that is about 16 players in line for three spots. 

Obviously, if even half of these guys end up good enough to play MLB, the Twins will have to make some trades. I like the 'pick the best player available' strategy. 

Ages:

Polanco - 29, Arraez 25, Miranda and Steer 24, Lewis, Martin, Julien, Strand 23, Lee and Schobel 21, Miller 19, The rest mentioned above will not be in the Twins organization in a couple years IMO. The age difference gives the last three guys time to grow in the minors.

I just have the feeling that Polanco, due to age and an increasing cap amount, may be on the move in a sell high (though not at his highest) trade for pitching before the 2023 season starts. Trade one of the other guys for pitching for more than just a rental in the next two weeks and those two moves would get us better pitching and not so much of a glut for 2023.

 

 

[Dman]

19 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Obviously, if even half of these guys end up good enough to play MLB, the Twins will have to make some trades. I like the 'pick the best player available' strategy. 

Ages:

Polanco - 29, Arraez 25, Miranda and Steer 24, Lewis, Martin, Julien, Strand 23, Lee and Schobel 21, Miller 19, The rest mentioned above will not be in the Twins organization in a couple years IMO. The age difference gives the last three guys time to grow in the minors.

I just have the feeling that Polanco, due to age and an increasing cap amount, may be on the move in a sell high (though not at his highest) trade for pitching before the 2023 season starts. Trade one of the other guys for pitching for more than just a rental in the next two weeks and those two moves would get us better pitching and not so much of a glut for 2023.

 

 

Yeah they will trade from surplus and they have middle infield utility surplus.  You are right they probably can't keep them all as the 40 man will dictate who they can or cannot keep and it would be a good problem to have if most of those guys work out as they should have value in trades.

I don't think that in a couple of years most of those guys you mentioned will be gone though.  Maybe Polanco and that is a maybe as Switch hitters are hard to find and playing 2nd not a huge toll physically.  Most good players play well at least into their 30's and then some. So that is 6 years for Miranda, and Steer and 7 for Jullien, Lewis, Martin and Strand.  A lot of those years are prime years as well so I don't think a "couple years" stands up well there. Also the MLB clock hasn't started on Jullien, Martin, Steer or Strand so they might be around even longer than that.

The Twins might be more like Cleveland and Tampa and trade some guys a year or two before free agency but that still puts them at 4 to 5 to 6 years out yet.  They also might want to extend one or more of those players an extra year or two like they did with Kepler and Polanco as well hard to say.  

And your not even counting Cavaco who was a Twins first round pick or Holland who was supposed to be first round pick that fell to number 5 or Soularie who was second pick in 2020.  They were all best player available as well when they were picked.  Miller is the youngest of them all and he was 1st round pick just last year as well.  That is a lot of surplus to work through in "a couple of years". 

I don't have anything personal against Schobel and he might be a real steal in the end but there were other options there that could have been best available seen through a different lens.  Options that wouldn't have stacked up the already pretty full utility player pipeline the Twins currently have of which they added yet three more guys after Schobel and Lee.

 

[MABB1959]

Probably a stupid question but why get a SS for you top pick.  We have Lewis (or is he a wasted #1) and hopefully they get Correa back.  I could understand needing a back-up SS but certainly there would be a decent pick farther down

[MABB1959]

20 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

IMO, the odds of Correa taking a 3-4 year deal is less than 5%. 5 years - less than 10%,  6 years 20-25%,  7+ years 75-80%.  The odds of the Twins signing him 10%.  How many times has a mid-market team signed a $250M+ player?  My guess is Correa gets close to $300M.

If they want to win they have to spend.  If not we will go on our merry way hoping for a great player to emerge.

[Old Twins Cap]

I don't follow prospects closely but it sounds like we got a Bregman-type in the 1st round, (maybe more when you factor in the switch-hitting), and a Pedroia-type in round 3.  And now we have like 3 or 4 tall, hard-throwing lefties coming up through the Minors.

Never forget my first trip to Target Field in 2010 and watching Pedroia stand next to Mourneau at 1B on a beautiful Spring Day -- just glad to be outside again after the dark years of the  Metrodome.  Both guys were All-Stars and MVPs, but man, totally different body-types and players.

In the immortal words of Ryan Jeffers, "Sometimes, baseball just baseballs."   Pretty hard to measure the heart of a great player.

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

If they want to win they have to spend.  If not we will go on our merry way hoping for a great player to emerge.

Are you suggesting they have to spend like the Dodgers / Red Sox / Yankees / Mets / Phillies / Angels or are you saying they have to spend on this player?

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Probably a stupid question but why get a SS for you top pick.  We have Lewis (or is he a wasted #1) and hopefully they get Correa back.  I could understand needing a back-up SS but certainly there would be a decent pick farther down

Because SS is still probably the most important position player on a team. While there are a bunch of terrific ones in MLB right now, there still aren't enough to go around, so having one is a big asset. Even if you're set at SS, which the twins might be if Correa comes back (unlikely), or Lewis is the real deal (possible, but not a certainty), having an elite prospect at SS is a significant trade asset. And just because you think you've got SS figured out in the short term, doesn't mean that in 3 years things will have worked out as planned. Can't predict injuries, so having depth at critical positions is huge. (last season at CF is a good example of this; we had to throw a lot of guys in there out of position or before they were ready because we were a little thin behind Buxton) The other thing is, tons of guys don't stick at SS even if they were drafted there and become quality MLB players. If you're good enough/athletic enough to be drafted as a SS, then those skills often translate if you have to shift to a new position, whether it's 2B, 3B, or OF.

It's a not a stupid question at all, though.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Probably a stupid question but why get a SS for you top pick.  We have Lewis (or is he a wasted #1) and hopefully they get Correa back.  I could understand needing a back-up SS but certainly there would be a decent pick farther down

Brooks Lee isn't likely to stick at SS.

Aside from that, Correa is 95% gone after this year, and that's a good thing. If Correa is here next year, it's because he had a catastrophic injury and won't be ready for the start of (or any of) the 2023 season so he decided to take his player option. Lewis has all of 41 plate appearances at the MLB level and will miss a couple months next season, at least.

In addition, the Twins don't think much of Palacios, Cavaco is a bust and Noah Miller is at least 3 more years away. I'd say the cupboard is much more bare at SS than you think.