Selling a Centerfielder

[Cody Pirkl]

Trading is all about dealing from a place of strength to address a weakness. In the Twins case, they have a strength at a very valuable position that they could deal from if they see fit. But should they?

 

The Twins farm system has seen better days after multiple top prospects have graduated and several others have struggled in 2022. For that reason, it may be a bit tougher to stomach parting with the players who have been impressing in the lower levels. Perhaps the Twins can bridge that gap by dipping into their Major League center field depth, however.

The Twins have an interesting roster, as where some teams struggle to find viable options in center field, the Twins have three. This strategy makes sense, as Byron Buxton requires more time off than the regular center fielder. Despite his regular absences, Buxton is tied for the lead in Outs Above Average among center fielders. The Twins of course miss his glove when it’s not out there, but not as much as you’d think. Gilberto Celestino has a 4 Outs Above Average, 10th overall in baseball. Even Nick Gordon, who profiles as a better corner outfielder, grades out at an average 0.

And so the question becomes: Do the Twins need this much depth at center field? And if the answer is no, which player should the Twins part with?

Gilberto Celestino
A center fielder his entire career, Celestino is the much better defender between himself and Gordon. Long considered a glove-first prospect, Celestino has flashed plus offensive ability several times recently, including posting an .827 OPS in AAA last season after struggling mightily in his MLB debut. His 2022 slash of .274/.333/.336 is 5% below league average, but if the 23-year-old can tap into any kind of power, he likely becomes an everyday, starting-caliber center fielder.

Celestino has undoubtedly raised his stock this year by holding his own at the big league level at only 23 years of age. While he doesn’t carry the kind of value to be the centerpiece of a trade for a controllable starter, he should get the Twins at least part way there if they choose to dangle him. That being said, it’s difficult to envision. Celestino could easily wind up being the future center fielder in a couple of years, and his right handedness is a good complement to the left handed heavy corner outfielders. Very few young players should be untradeable at this point, but the Twins would likely need to be working on quite the acquisition to drop Celestino on the table.

Nick Gordon
After an up and down career, Gordon has transformed himself into a valuable and versatile player in 2022. The former middle infielder rarely leaves the outfield grass these days, often filling in at left field and occasionally in center admirably. In addition, the light-hitting lefty has become a contributor on offense as well.

Gordon is the type of player that makes up the fringes of a competitive roster. He’s been an above-average hitter this season and his versatility is a huge plus. That being said, at 26 years old, his stock may be at an all-time high. For as good as he’s been, it’ll be tough for him to win a playing-time battle with left-handed hitting Trevor Larnach when he returns from the IL. With several roster crunches on the horizon, Gordon has likely become too valuable to simply cut bait on.

In terms of value, the former 1st round pick won’t move the needle much in a trade for a starting pitcher. That being said, he’s not a free agent until 2028. It’s not impossible that he could fetch the Twins a usable reliever or perhaps a more valuable one if they add onto their end with a middling prospect. We’ve seen before with players such as Jurickson Profar that the “jack of all trades, master of none” type player can appeal to a wide range of teams.

Perhaps it’s a bit too risky to part with a centerfielder given Buxton’s health concerns but the Twins could possibly save a bit on prospects by doing so. Keep in mind also that Kepler has filled in at centerfield in a pinch before. 

Should the Twins consider dealing from their center field depth, or look to part with pieces elsewhere? Let us know below!

 

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[puckstopper1]

If Lewis did not get reinjured, I'd agree with you Cody that this is a position of strength.  But because Buxton is often injured, it is not.  The Twins are lucky to have Celestino and Gordon performing adequately this season after both struggled last season and Cave poorly trying to fill the role, or even Kepler playing out of position.

[dxpavelka]

Actually, Kepler's played 20% of his career games in CF so I'd say he's done more than just fill in in a pinch.  If one of Celestino or Gordon would get the right return, I'd be just fine with Kepler in CF when Buxton's not and Kirilloff in RF, especially with Sano nearing a return and a lot of talk about being in the running to get Josh Bell's bat down the stretch.  Contending teams can never have too many bats or arms.

[ashbury]

I'd part with Gordon far quicker than with Celestino, if that's the question.  The latter is young, while the former really isn't anymore and his SS skills are below par and thus not a factor in my thinking. 

My only perplexity is that Celestino hasn't displayed the home run power that seemed to be emerging for him in the minors in 2019-21.  But he's still only 23 and I'm betting we haven't seen his "career year" yet.  We might well be witnessing Gordon's career year right now.

OTOH it appears that the Twins no longer consider Kepler as anything more than emergency use in CF, while Cave and Contreras at AAA merely are marginal candidates.  So I challenge the notion that we have an oversupply in CF.  As with catcher this past off-season before the trades, I think 3 is actually about the right number to have on hand, with at least one possessing minor league options. 

If there's actually an oversupply, shall we package Cave and Contreras for that relief help?   No takers from other teams?    So much for an oversupply.

[The Mad King]

I'd rather part with one of them as opposed to Larnach, Kiriloff, or Miranda. 

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, The Mad King said:

I'd rather part with one of them as opposed to Larnach, Kiriloff, or Miranda. 

I don't disagree, but you named 3 corner guys whose value is in their potentially big bats.  CF, at least IMO, has to be considered as (nearly as) separate a category as starting pitching.

[Rosterman]

Celestino is one of those guys that you think could be a standout centerfielder with a tad more development. He doesn't hit for the power, isn't overly flashy in the field, isn't stealing bases. He hits singles and can move from first to third. But is he better than the Pridie, Grossman, Cave, whatever? Is he wrth his most right now as a potential starter for a team (i.e. Oakland) and if push comes to shove, is there someone else the heir apparant to Buxton when he stops playing center, sadly sooner rather than later.

Gordon is that super sub. At some point he prices himself off the team. Would a team trade specifically for him? Probably not. Again, his career is in his hands, how he plays, and every year he will be fighting for a contract. At some point he will egt signed by a rebuilding team and be given an everyday chance to fly high.

It will be intresting to see where the Twins go with outfielders. Matt Wallner is on the cusp. Michael Helman could be the backup. The Twins actually have too many spare change outfielders in Garlick, Celestino, Cave, Contreras right now. Kepler looks like he could be a movable piece. larnach has potential to be a tradechip. Depends on what you do with Kirilloff and Miranda and, down-the-line Chrostian Encarcion-Strand.

And then we have the Sano elephant in the room. If the guy comes back and hits, he throws the whole 1B/DH situation into a mess if the Twins decide to keep him for one more season.

[chpettit19]

Why are we talking about Celestino, or anyone, as the "future centerfielder in a couple years" or the "heir apparent to Buxton when he stops playing center, sadly sooner rather than later?" Buxton is on a 7 year deal and isn't about to suddenly stop being an elite defender there. And when he does stop being elite (in what? 4 years?) he'll simply be above average before moving to average. The only replacement, or "heir apparent," you need for Buxton is an injury one. If Buxton is on the field anytime in the next 4 years he's playing CF and he'll be among the 3 or 4 best in baseball at defending there. Even injured he's one of the best defenders in baseball. I don't understand those statements at all.

Gordon is not a backup CFer beyond being able to play it as part of his utility role. Celestino is a 4th OFer who was basically always projected to be a 4th OFer and is now fulfilling that role. Anyone in the Twins minor leagues at this point that has any chance of playing major league baseball anytime in the next couple years (outside of Royce Lewis) is a 4th OFer, or COFer, type, and not a starting CF type. I don't see the depth here at all.

[MTV]

I think you can deal off both Celestino and either Larnach or Kepler and get an everyday outfielder that can play both Center and a corner well, like Adam Duvall or Ian Happ. It helps with lineup depth, plus once Larnach returns the Twins would need to option someone regardless. This way you get good production with less roster space and still have depth if Buxton gets injured.

[wsnydes]

I'm not sure there truly is centerfield depth, but if the right deal came along for Celestino or Gordon, I wouldn't hesitate.  Gordon might actually hurt more given his ability all over the field, but likely has less value.  Cave poses an interesting scenario that I wouldn't hesitate to part with, but likely doesn't have a lot of value either.

I'm completely comfortable with Kepler filling in at CF in the short term, but a prolonged Buxton injury may be an issue.  If Kepler is dealt, this conversation gets much more complicated.

[tony&rodney]

Agree with an apparent consensus that CF is covered decently and not really a pile of riches, but it always depends on what anyone/teams want in return for what the Twins seek.

[Nine of twelve]

A good major league team needs 4 full-time outfielders. In the case of the Twins, I see their outfield in the next few years as Buxton, Celestino, and two of Larnach, Kiriloff, and Kepler. That gives us 2 RHB, 2 LHB, and three (including Kepler) who can play CF. Keep all five, and Kiriloff also becomes part of a platoon at 1B with Sano and gives the team a good overall rotation at DH. That said, go ahead and trade anyone if the price is right.

[The Mad King]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

I don't disagree, but you named 3 corner guys whose value is in their potentially big bats.  CF, at least IMO, has to be considered as (nearly as) separate a category as starting pitching.

I'm just hoping that whoever the trade partner is would rather have a cf than those corner guys. 

Plus, we allways have Jake Cave in St Paul?

[Dr Katz]

Depth, depth, depth for injuries, rest, or just to keep everyone active and playing. Keep the 2 K's, Kepler and Kiriloff, and Celestino. Maybe trade others only If the deal helps and makes sense. Should be the last chance for the Strikeout King too, I mean Sano. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, The Mad King said:

I'm just hoping that whoever the trade partner is would rather have a cf than those corner guys. 

Plus, we allways have Jake Cave in St Paul?

There's a reason Gilberto is plying his trade across the river from Jake.

[Shaitan]

The Twins are in first place because they have depth.

[Whitey333]

The Twins are in first place also because they play in a poor division where no one seems to want to take charge, including the Twins.  I don't see center field as an area of strength.  Seven years of a part time, always injured Buxton shows that.  He's hitting .217 and is so strikeout prone.  He looks lost at the plate most of the time.  Yes he's great defensively but not so at the plate.  His .245 seven year career average and part time status can attest to that.  Sano indeed is the elephant in the room!!  He's coming back soon.  Someone will be sent out to make room for him on the roster.  My guess, Garlick or Cellistino as they have options left.  Problem with Sano is who is he going to take at bats from?  Miranda, Kirilloff, Arraez?  Hope not.  Those players have earned their right to stay and play regularly.  Baldelli loves him so you know Sano will play.  If they are not bringing him back next year they need to trade him for whatever they can get.  The Yankees batboy perhaps?  Or bite the bullet and release him.  Sanos run in Minnesota should be over.

[Finlander]

Few if any have commented on how the potential roles of Lewis and Martin may play into the CF depth.

Also, having seen that Wallner dinger swing against a lefties in the Futures game, I wouldn't rule him out of the corner OF projections.

[RpR]

Miranda has totally negative numbers fielding, while Kirilloff is negative in left field and  even in right, where they do not need any one ; they have had good bats for the past several weeks but lets see how that plays out after the All-Star game.

Smalley went into the All-Star game with 20 home runs one year and finished the  year with 24.

Larnach has totally positive fielding numbers and Garlick has postitive numbers in left field where some one is need to be a regular.

Miranda and Kirilloff are best trade bait if they try to get a better pitcher.

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

Miranda has totally negative numbers fielding, while Kirilloff is negative in left field and  even in right, where they do not need any one ; they have had good bats for the past several weeks but lets see how that plays out after the All-Star game.

Smalley went into the All-Star game with 20 home runs one year and finished the  year with 24.

Larnach has totally positive fielding numbers and Garlick has postitive numbers in left field where some one is need to be a regular.

Miranda and Kirilloff are best trade bait if they try to get a better pitcher.

I would bet a lot of money they are not trading Miranda or Kirilloff to bolster a team with very low odds of making a playoff run.