Bovada: Twins Betting Favorites to Land Frankie Montas, Josh Bell If Moved at Deadline

[Nash Walker]

In an interesting development, Bovada lists the Minnesota Twins as the betting favorite to land Frankie Montas and Josh Bell if traded at the deadline. It's worth noting that these odds are built to draw action, and shouldn't be taken as gospel. Still, it's worth discussing the viability of both options. 

 

Where Frankie?
The Twins have been linked to Oakland Athletics starter Frankie Montas since shortly after the lockout, with reports emerging that the sides have been in contact for quite some time. Montas, 29, is a premier target. Montas owns a 3.33 ERA and 3.35 FIP over his last 49 starts, working with an upper-90s fastball and an elite splitter. He's under team control through 2023, which is undoubtedly attractive for a Twins club expecting to compete again next summer. 

Montas was sporting a 2.80 ERA over his last 45 innings before his July 3rd start in Seattle, where he lasted just one inning. Montas exited with shoulder tightness and hasn't started since, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that he won't pitch in a game until after the All-Star Break. Athletics' reporter Martín Gallegos tweeted Tuesday that Montas threw a successful, 25-pitch bullpen session. His shoulder is a concern, but Montas will have an opportunity to showcase his health for a few weeks before the break. 

According to Bovada, Montas will likely remain in Oakland (-145). If he's moved, the Twins are the favorite at +325, followed by the Mets (+350), Cardinals (+450), Dodgers (+900), and Red Sox (+1200). Montas would instantly front the Twins' rotation if healthy, giving them a legitimate Game 1 starter. The question is straightforward: is he worth the risk?

Another Bopper?
Given their interest before the season, it's not shocking to see the Twins as a viable destination for Montas. It's hard to say the same for Washington Nationals' first baseman Josh Bell. If the Nats move Bell, Bovada lists the Twins as a distinct betting favorite to land him at +275. The following closest teams are the Padres and Blue Jays at a distant +600. It's jarring to see, especially considering the Twins' logjam at first base and designated hitter. 

Bell, 29, is hitting .300/.380/.488 with 19 doubles, two triples, and 13 home runs. He swings from both sides of the plate, hitting for average, power and striking out at a meager rate for a burly first baseman. Bell is a rental for any club, meaning he'll be a free agent after this season, but he's undoubtedly a middle-of-the-order force. For mostly any other contending team, he makes a ton of sense. For the Twins? Maybe not so much. 

The emergences of José Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have created logjams in the corners. Gio Urshela plays a solid third base (at least by the eye test), and the Twins have an All-Star at first in Luis Arraez. Byron Buxton continues to draw starts at DH and will likely need to do so in the second half. First baseman Miguel Sanó is trying to force himself back into the mix. After adding an everyday player in Bell, It would take some severe gymnastics to get everyone their at-bats.  

The Twins got wild after the lockout so it's possible they do so again at the trade deadline. What if they traded for Bell, making Miranda, Kirilloff, Urshela, and Sanó expendable in another deal for a starting pitcher or reliever? We could see some intense shifting, and nothing is out of the question for this front office. 

What do you think about these latest odds at Bovada? Comment below!

 

 

 

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[umterp23]

Bell would be interesting for sure.  Would not want to see Kiriloff or Miranda moved, they are the future for the twins.  Urshela and Sano would have to be part of the package as they are more expendable.  Montas arm tightness is a concern so there is a gamble there.  Trades can be exciting but huge risks in pitchers who have arm issue(s) on horizon.

 

[I wish the twins were good]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

Bell would be interesting for sure.  Would not want to see Kiriloff or Miranda moved, they are the future for the twins.  Urshela and Sano would have to be part of the package as they are more expendable.  Montas arm tightness is a concern so there is a gamble there.  Trades can be exciting but huge risks in pitchers who have arm issue(s) on horizon.

 

Who would Washington want 30 year old Sano or Urshela? If either Montas or Bell end up on the twins, expect to say goodbye to multiple of the Kiriloff, Miranda, Gordon, Larnach group, plus any of Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, etc etc. Gonna hurt!

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, I wish the twins were good said:

Who would Washington want 30 year old Sano or Urshela? If either Montas or Bell end up on the twins, expect to say goodbye to multiple of the Kiriloff, Miranda, Gordon, Larnach group, plus any of Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, etc etc. Gonna hurt!

Not as much as another winless post-season.

[Old fox]

The only way I would consider trading Sano~ for Bell strait up. Then, trade Bell for pitching. This could also accomplish by a 3 team trade.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm hoping the Twins can land either Montas or Castillo to front the rotation for the rest of this season and 4 or 5 more to come.  We need that type of SP.  Bell would great as a cleanup hitter (switch hitters are always great #4 hitters...think Mantle and Eddie Murray).  But I just don't see it.  We need SP and BP help SO badly and Arraez, Kirilloff and Miranda have 1B locked up.  Even if Sano was traded there is just too big a logjam at 1B,  and DH needs to remain flexible if Buxton is forbidden from playing CF 3 days in row (which I find ridiculous---just play Buxton, stop trying to protect him).

I wouldn't trade Kirilloff or Lewis to anyone, but for a Castillo or Montas I'd consider making Miranda, Martin, Larnach or Ober available in some combination.  We have talent in the minors and 40-man roster crunches coming up.  Some of that young talent can certainly be moved to bring major league talent back.  Right now, the twins are fading.  They need a shot or two in the arm to revive this season. 

[puckstopper1]

While Bell and Montas can help the Twins make the playoffs, I don't feel either moves the needle towards playoff success.

Bell would likely be a rental and while I'd love to see the Twins add him so they can say goodbye to Sano, the price will likely be painful.

Montas would be under team control for another year, but would also likely cost the Twins some of their anticipated future pieces.

[LewFordLives]

They wouldn't get more than a bucket of balls for Sano.

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, I wish the twins were good said:

Who would Washington want 30 year old Sano or Urshela? If either Montas or Bell end up on the twins, expect to say goodbye to multiple of the Kiriloff, Miranda, Gordon, Larnach group, plus any of Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, etc etc. Gonna hurt!

I think first, that any logjam is not a factor with Bell because he is performing as a hitter better than any of those he might displace. Another .300 hitter and with power and high OBP to boot would improve the Twins erratic offense. The cost, IMO, would not involved any of the above named players bt maybe a AA pitcher or at the most Eduord Julien.

Montas is a different story. I wouldn’t trade Miranda. Larnach is a possibility because he’s replaceable, especially with Wallner on the way. That would be a fair deal with the Twins possibly throwing in an A or AA pitching prospect.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Again with the trades. The current Twins have a solid core of players. Yeah, they're young, yeah they make a few mental errors, yeah the pitching staff has a couple too many "experienced" pitchers on the back side of their careers holding the team back. So what. The young hitters are steadily improving, we have a few pitching prospects still in the minors that might be able to help out and who offer a better long-term solution to pitching problems than trading for more questionable arms and best of all, this bunch is coming together, which means we don't have to whine about chemistry anymore. My advice: don't screw with them. Don't trade anybody. Evaluate at the end of the season and make player decisions then. Oh, with one exception: get rid of Sano now. If you can't trade him, cut him.

[Brandon]

We've been stuck around .500 for a while now meaning since we were 8 games above .500 we have played .500 since and that has been for quite a while.  If we want to win in the playoffs we need to get a few players.  I doubt Bell costs that much.  Maybe a solid A or AA ball prospect Montas will cost more and I am fine with most trades for him.  I would be good with Larnarch in the trade or also including someone like Ober who is a low cost controlled starter that can plug into the A's rotation.  (We seem to have several averagish starting pitchers and if we are getting one it makes sense to send one).   There are lots of ways to structure a deal for Montas.  While I am not as big on getting Bell.  I wouldn't mind seeing us make some improvements and go for it while we still have Correa.  

[MTV]

I’d put money on Montas joining the Twins. The Dodgers and Yankees have more interest in Castillo, and Oakland has great interest in Spencer Steer. Send a couple pitching prospects with Steer and the Twins have an Ace. As for Bell, hard no. Kirilloff, Miranda, and Arraez are already enough for 1B, and the Twins don’t really need that type of slugger. If the Twins chase any offensive player it should be an outfielder.

[tony&rodney]

Always liked Bell but, no. Montas is worth a shot as is Castillo but I'm still hoping for a couple of relief pitchers.

[ashbury]

Montas has shown his mettle this season by pitching well in 4 games against possible playoff opponents, Yankees, Rays, and Astros.  Weirdly, the Indians have cuffed him around in the two games he pitched against them.

It's just worrisome that he had some arm pain recently.  Given their recent experience when they traded for Paddack, I hope our FO properly interprets whatever medicals they are given.

[The Mad King]

I'm not interested in a rental. For one I don't think we're that close. Two, I'm all for keeping our prosoects.

Yeah, I'm mad...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Again with the trades. The current Twins have a solid core of players. Yeah, they're young, yeah they make a few mental errors, yeah the pitching staff has a couple too many "experienced" pitchers on the back side of their careers holding the team back. So what. The young hitters are steadily improving, we have a few pitching prospects still in the minors that might be able to help out and who offer a better long-term solution to pitching problems than trading for more questionable arms and best of all, this bunch is coming together, which means we don't have to whine about chemistry anymore. My advice: don't screw with them. Don't trade anybody. Evaluate at the end of the season and make player decisions then. Oh, with one exception: get rid of Sano now. If you can't trade him, cut him.

I agree with this to a large extent. The core is here, don’t trade major leaguers away… 

however, they have to do something to improve the bullpen. that can and should be accomplished by trading low level prospects 

[Whitey333]

The twins have plenty of holes on this team; especially in the pitching department.  To those who don't want to trade ANY Twins prospects I wonder how you intend on improving the team.  If those prospects we have are so great why aren't they being called up to help the team?  It's either because they are not that good and/ or they are overrated.  Even this great Martin everyone ranted and raved about how we stole him from the Jays has dropped out of MLB top 100 prospects.  You either have to be ready to promote the top prospects or move on from them at some point before they lose any trade value.  And we know the Twins only make good trades right?  Like just as the season started trading Rogers.  Sorry, not a good example lol

[Riverbrian]

Acquiring Josh Bell... I'm all for it because that is the type of rental bat that can make a big difference in your lineup. 

Baseballtradevalues is impressively close to accurate in most cases. It suggests that Woods-Richardson would get the deal done and I'd have to guess that the Nats would want pitching. 

It is only natural to be fearful that prices go up via bidding wars but the past few years I've noticed a more disciplined approach when it comes to parting with prospects. It really seems like all teams are protecting their prospect pool and not over paying.  Trades are usually equal value. 

The complication with this deal is Sano. He will be back with very little trade value and a 14 million dollar club option for next year that kinda suggests that he won't be back with his inconsistent performance. If Sano could just do what we think he should do... It wouldn't cost us Woods-Richardson to replace him for an important stretch run.  

I know some here are pretty much done with Sano. I don't blame anyone for feeling that way but I don't quite see it that strongly.

I'm OK seeing if Sano can get hot like he has in the past but there is no way I could justify the seeing if he can with a big question mark when a guy with no question mark is available. In other words, we can't let a struggling player with no future with the club prevent us from acquiring a difference maker. 

If the Twins are not picking up his option... he has no future with us. Bell comes aboard... Sano has to go. 

Now if the Twins plan on picking up Sano's option (which is not totally out of the question) then the acquisition of Bell is not a consideration. Sano now has a potential value to the club next season and we have to see if he can take us where we want to be. 

As for the playing time for Bell... Easily done. When Sano comes back... he will be worked into the lineup at 1B and DH. Kirilloff will play OF, DH and 1B. Rocco will continue to shift players around. Bell would be utilized just like they are going to utilize Sano when he returns. This isn't a problem. 

I'm for the acquisition of Bell.