Final Twins Daily Mock Draft

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The draft kicks off tomorrow evening and we have the Final TwinsDaily/Brewer Fanatic Mock Draft.
 

 

Despite being on the clock for the last nine months, the Orioles haven’t given any clear indication about the direction in which they plan to go. When paths deviate before the draft even starts, mock drafts can be a mess in a hurry. But, like I said before, that doesn’t mean we sholdn’t try!

1. Orioles - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly - Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday could be the direction they go here. Termarr Johnson could be a good money-savings option. I keep coming back to Lee, who might not be the flashiest option, but can help the Orioles quicker than the prep options.
2. Diamondbacks - Druw Jones, OF, Georgia HS - This seems to be the best prospect’s floor. While Jones is a near-lock to be under consideration for the first pick, it’s entirely possible that the Diamondbacks are willing to outspend the Orioles on Jones, taking him out of the running for the first pick. But if Jones goes first, then Holliday goes here.
3. Rangers - Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma HS - If the Rangers get this chance, they jump on it. If they don’t, they take Kevin Parada. One of Lee or Parada falls out of the top 3. 
4. Pirates - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC - The Pirates would have a number of good options if the draft played out like this. Collier, Termarr Johnson and Kevin Parada all would be in play.
5. Nationals - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech - Back to my original projection with the Nationals, though Elijah Green and Termarr Johnson are two prep names to keep in mind here.
6. Marlins - Jacob Berry, DH, LSU - In this scenario, the Marlins pass on both Elijah Green and Termarr Johnson.
7. Cubs - Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia HS - The Cubs wait anxiously and get the guy they wanted all along.
8. Twins - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech - Take a haircut on an overdraft, try to find other money to overpay Elijah Green or stay true to their value board and take Cross. Those are the options the Twins face in this scenario.
9. Royals - Justin Crawford, OF, Nevada HS - The Royals traded a pick and the slot money that goes with it to acquire a centerfielder earlier in the week, so what sense does it make to take an underslot centerfielder now? It doesn’t. But the draft doesn’t always make sense.
10. Rockies - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech - When Green drops to this point, it becomes about money. The Mets have it. The Rockies don’t. The Rockies take the top available college hitter.
11. Mets - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy - The drop stops here. The Mets will do what they planned to do last year and pay their first pick over slot. If Green does get to this point, there is decent reason to believe he would drop to fourteen, with the Mets locking up their savings first.
12. Tigers - Connor Prielipp, RHP, Alabama - The Tigers might prefer a college bat - but they’ve been picked over - or Cade Horton, but Prielipp’s price tag could make him more appealing.
13. Angels - Brandon Berriera, RHP, Florida HS - If shutting down for the season to keep healthy can lead to being the first prep arm off the board, then Berriera may have started a movement.
14. Mets - Brock Porter, RHP, Michigan HS - Instead of cutting the deal here, the Mets will spend big again and figure out how to stay below the tax threshold later.
15. Padres - Dylan Lesko, P, Georgia HS - I don’t know if it will go this way, but I’ve felt good about this since the first mock and I can’t bring myself to change it.
16. Guardians - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma - It’s almost unfair for the Guardians to get Horton, who was very impressive on his march through the NCAA Tournament.
17. Phillies - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga - The Phillies seem likely to go the pitching route and going the college route is a safer bet than dipping into the prep pool.
18. Reds - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona - The Reds can get great value here and turn around and select a falling prep pitcher at 32.
19. A’s - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell - Here’s another pairing that I can’t bring myself to change. Neto could certainly be off the board much sooner.
20. Braves - Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State - Did the Braves make the trade with the Royals with a bigger plan in mind? We’ll know on Sunday if they land Dylan Lesko. Otherwise, taking a college pitcher makes sense.
21. Mariners - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt/Indy ball - I haven’t heard anything linking the two, but the Mariners are in on college pitching and the guys they might prefer are off the board.
22. Cardinals - Cole Young, SS, Pennsylvania HS - The Cardinals have made a habit out of scooping up falling prospects. 
23. Blue Jays - Tucker Toman, 3B, South Carolina HS - There’s been buzz on Toman to Toronto for a while now.
24. Red Sox - Jett Williams, SS, Texas HS - Like I said before, the Red Sox have had success with tiny infieders before, haven’t they?
25. Yankees - Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt - Another connection that is making the rounds.
26. White Sox - Blake Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee - The White Sox try their luck on another college pitcher.
27. Brewers - Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee - There are a number of college hitters still available and while Gilbert could go much earlier, would be a good get for the Brewers.
28. Astros - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison - The Astros, like the Brewers, have a lot of hitting prospects on the board.
29. Rays - Robby Snelling, LHP, Nevada HS - The Rays know how to draft pitching and they’re getting a really good one late in the first round.
30. Giants - Dylan Beavers, OF, Cal - The first round comes to a close by the Giants taking yet another college outfielder. 

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[RJA]

I can’t wait to see how your predictions play out come tomorrow, Jeremy. Doesn’t it seem like financial demands of certain players cause last minute changes in draft boards almost every year?  I have said it before, but this may be the most unpredictable draft in many years which will make it a blast to watch. My bet is Neto (Law’s pick) but my confidence factor is very low. Maybe Prielipp?  Maybe Cross?  The one thing I doubt they will do is take someone with huge financial demands. 

[beckmt]

I am hoping the Twins do not take another outfielder.  System seems to have a lot of them at this time.  Do not know what to think of the pitchers.  I have heard the class is weak.  Drafting for need does not work, so I guess it will work, but would prefer to having pitching if close.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

16 minutes ago, RJA said:

The one thing I doubt they will do is take someone with huge financial demands. 

I think you're spot on.

With the exception of Johnson, the rest of the top prep hitters are sons of former professional athletes who all made a good amount of money as players and hopefully surrounded themselves with smart negotiators and smart money people. They could have a little more leverage because, hopefully, it's not saying yes or no to "life-changing" money.

(I'm assuming that if you've made $160m like Matt Holliday or $130m like Andruw Jones, that $6m isn't life-changing anymore.)

So if you think you could do better, wait a year and try again.

The other side of the argument is if they're rich already, who cares. But you don't see free agents taking less-than-they-can-get money to play somewhere they don't want to, so I'd *guess* these guys are in a better position to get to the teams of their choice.

[prouster]

If Green is available and the Twins pass, I’m gonna have some feelings, lol. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I know nothing about these players beyond what what I've read and sort of "aggregated" from various public sources. But the draft rankings that Fangraphs just updated are interesting: link

FG, similar to Keith Law, seem willing to stick with their own evaluations of players and to give those more weight when they differ from consensus opinions or rankings. These are not huge differences, but I'm noting that they're lower on Green and Cross and higher on Neto and Lesko than many other rankings (although the scouting reports on the "lower" guys are still quite positive overall.)

If anything, this gives more reason to think that one of the consensus top 7 realistically could slide down - and also that Lesko could a be viable pick at 8...?!

While this draft is said to be weak on pitching, the flip side is that there isn't a lot of consistency in how the mid- to late-first round guys are rated between different mocks and rankings. It gives me hope that someone intriguing could fall to the Twins' second pick. Should be an interesting draft in any case!

[NapoleonComplex]

Absolutely love the time and effort y’all put into MLB draft coverage. All the analysis is incredible. As a fan of prospects and mocks … thank you.

That said, if it comes down to Cross as the best (affordable) bat available, I take a risk on Lesko or Prielipp. 

[rickyriolo]

Pitching, pitching then more pitching 

[SarasotaBill]

My preference:

8. Lasko (under slot)

48. Melendez (draft experts have him lower but I doubt he 's available here)

68. Over Slot 

[tony&rodney]

Thank you for doing such a fine job with this series. It has been informative, interesting, and fun.

Being a little bit of a baseball geek, I was/am familiar with all of the top players but certainly found all of the writing to be engaging and worth every second. Every time I watch Kershaw I'm hoping the Twins find a gem and this makes me call out names like Lesko and Porter above the bats. Sunday should be fun for these kids and us.

[Ryan_K]

I hope we get a HS pick even if they want over slot. If we offer full slot, and they refuse to sign then we get pick 9 in a better draft next year, so we would have two first round picks plus comp a as well. Go for Lesko or one of the top 7.

Twins don't usually have guys play much that first year, so him having TJ shouldn't delay him.

Even if we go with Berry, maybe he becomes the Polar Bear Pete Alonso for us, so I think we'll get talent if we don't get too cute.