2022 MLB Draft Consensus Big Board, Part 1 (56-26 Overall)

[Jamie Cameron]

For the first time, Twins Daily is releasing a consensus big board for the MLB Draft. This combines rankings from Baseball America, ESPN, The Athletic, MLB Pipeline, and Prospects Live to form a consensus on the top 56 players in the draft.

 

I’ve been working on this project for Twins Daily for a long time. As part of our draft coverage this season, we are not releasing a ‘Top 50 Prospects’ piece. Instead, we’re going to do something different, that I hope will grow and evolve over time, a ‘Consensus Big Board’.

What and Why?
I’ve always enjoyed draft coverage and analysis, in all sports. Arif Hasan of The Athletic releases a consensus big board for the NFL Draft each year. The concept is simple, there’s value in consensus. Why rely on one set of rankings, or one big board, when you can rely on many? The consensus big board is simply an amalgamation of a few key industry sources on the MLB draft that will (hopefully) give more and greater insight into how prospects are viewed and the variance of those evaluations, a level of variance that is typically greater in MLB than in other major sports.

How?
As this is a first version of this process I kept things simple. I combined rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), The Athletic (Keith Law), and Prospects Live to form a consensus top 56 prospects for the 2022 MLB draft. This will be split into part one (56-26), and part two (26-1). I hope that this is a valuable resource for Twins fans and Twins Daily readers. Ultimately, I hope it is a useful resource for baseball fans of any team. If it’s well received, I plan on expanding the 2023 version to be a top 100 and include more sources. Additionally, I’d welcome any constructive feedback folks have, or simply to know whether you value this type of content.

Notes
For each prospect, they are listed by name, position, then high school or college attended. Their listed age is their age on draft day (July 17th). Additionally, you’ll notice a ‘high’ and ‘low’ number. These indicate what was the highest position that player appeared in a ranking from the sources I used and what was the lowest, giving an idea of if the evaluations are clustered or if there is a greater range for that prospect. Finally, ties (there were only a few) were broken by median, then mode. If they were still tied after that, I averaged the middle two evaluations. There’s a brief write up of each player to try and give a flavor of what the strengths and areas of growth in their games, but the majority of the work was compiling the data that went into the rankings.

Before we start, a huge shout of appreciation to all the amazing outlets that do this work. In particular, Carlos Collazo and Geoff Pontes at BA, Joe Doyle and Will Hoefer at Prospects Live and the many other scouts (both amateur and professional) who provide amazing video, analysis, and content. Let’s get stuck in.

NOTE: MLB Pipeline updated their rankings between me finalizing the consensus rankings on 07.12 and publishing them on 07.14 The update did not offer me enough time to add new rankings to the consensus board but there were minimal shifts to final MLB Pipeline rankings.

56. Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran HS, CA
Age: 18 B/T: L/R
High: 40 Low: 79
The LSU commit is one of the best high school shortstop prospects in this year’s draft. Romero has the chance to have a plus hit tool and is a smooth defender but needs to add strength and power to generate more hard contact.

55. Roman Anthony, OF, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, FL
Age: 18 B/T: L/R
High: 31 Low: 74
Anthony is a powerful athlete and likely, an eventual corner outfielder (he plays center field currently). He has good power and has improved his contact this spring, whilst offering a good arm and solid defense. Anthony is committed to Ole Miss.

54. Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa
Age: 21 B/T: R/R
High: 24 Low: 70
Minnesota represent! Mazur is from Woodbury, MN, and has rocketed up draft boards after an outstanding 2022 season. Mazur has two distinct fastballs, one of which he cranks up to 97 mph. Mazur struck out 98 in 93 plus innings of work in 2022. There’s a wide range of evaluations for Mazur, but his stock has risen significantly this spring.

53. Logan Tanner, C, Mississippi St
Age: 21 B/T: R/R
High: 37 Low: 69
Tanner is a solid defensive catcher with an absolute rocket of an arm (he hit 96 mph with his fastball in college). He has the potential to have above average, 20 home run power. Combined with good strike zone control, Tanner is one of the better college-catching prospects this season.

52. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia
Age: 22 B/T: R/R
High: 45 Low: 60
Cannon is a tall (6’6), lean right-handed starting pitcher coming off his third season at Georgia. He offers a mid-90s fastball, a sinker, slider, and a cutter and boasts outstanding command. Cannon profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher and should be able to move through the minor leagues at a good clip.

51. Landon Sims, RHP, Mississippi St
Age: 21 B/T: R/R
High: 22 Low: 70
Sims is a college pitcher with a ton of variance in his evaluations, due to Tommy John surgery in March at the beginning of the college season. Had Sims stayed healthy and continued his strong production from the beginning of the season, he would have been a lock for the front end of the first round. He carries an excellent mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider. If he sticks as a starter he profiles as a middle of the rotation arm, but there’s a good chance he ends up as an elite, high-leverage bullpen arm.

50. Cayden Wallace, 3B, Arkansas
Age: 20 B/T: R/R
High: 31 Low: 71
Wallace hit 15 home runs in his 2022 season with Arkansas. Although he is an average hitter with average power, he is a good defender at the hot corner, a solid base runner and has one of the best infield arms in college baseball.

49. Jake Bennett, LHP, Oklahoma
Age: 21 B/T: L/L
High: 39 Low: 68
Bennett has an ideal build and skillset to become a back of the rotation starting pitcher in the major leagues. He’s 6’6, 235 pounds. He has a solid delivery with some deception, and has reverse splits due to a plus changeup which right handed hitters struggle with. Bennett also offers a solid fastball and a sweeping slider, in addition to good command. He still has some projectability because of his size, but the floor is already decently high.

48. Walter Ford, RHP, Pace High School, FL
Age: 17 B/T: R/R
High: 29 Low: 53
At just 17, Ford is one of the youngest prospects in the consensus top 56 (along with Cam Collier). Ford is an Alabama commit with an upper 90s fastball and a sharp slider. Ford has spotty command and needs to develop a third pitch, but he’s incredibly young and there is plenty of time for him to develop and outgrow these challenges.

47. Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina
Age: 21 B/T: R/R
High: 28 Low: 63
Brown is an excellent athlete and player with no one standout tool because they are all good. Despite a weird setup at the plate, he slugged .566 this spring with more walks than strikeouts. Brown has also proven himself in the Cape Cod league, earning an All-Star nod. A good arm and smooth movement make him one of the better defensive college shortstops, with a chance to stick at the position. 

46. Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt
Age: 21 B/T: L/L
High: 20 Low: 80
You won’t come across a ton of 6’7 outfielders. Jones is an excellent athlete who has the potential to develop plus power. Jones hit 12 home runs and 20 doubles this spring for the Commodores. Jones is a good runner and solid defender but has a strikeout rate that needs to be curtailed in pro ball.

45. Payton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas
Age: 21 B/T: R/R
High: 37 Low: 58
Pallette’s season was lost to Tommy John surgery after moving to a starting pitching role in 2021. He throws a solid to good mid 90s fastball and an excellent curveball. If Pallette can stay healthy and meets his ceiling, he could profile as a number two type starter in the majors.

44. Henry Bolte, OF, Palo Alto High School, CA
Age: 18 B/T: R/R
High: 40 Low: NR
Bolte is less well know than he should be when considering his tools, due to some of the prep high school outfielders at the top of the board (Jones and Green). He’s 6’3, 200 pounds and has some of the best tools on the draft board. Bolte has easy plus raw power and plus speed. His hit tool, and his commitment to the University of Texas, remain the biggest questions marks on his considerable upside.

43. Dalton Rushing, C, Louisville
Age: 21 B/T: L/R
High: 31 Low: 50
Rushing succeeded Henry Davis as Louisville’s primary catcher after Davis was drafted number one overall in 2021, no easy feat. Rushing had an impressive season with the bat in 2022, swatting 22 home runs to go with a cool 17% walk rate. Were it not for Kevin Parada, his offensive numbers would be more widely heralded. Rushing has a good arm and both solid and improving receiving behind the plate. 

42. J. R. Ritchie, RHP, Bainbridge High School, WA
Age: 19 B/T: R/R
High: 21 Low: 52
Ritchie struck out 84 hitters in 39.1 innings this spring. In addition, his fastball velocity took a leap, sitting in the mid 90s but reaching 97 mph. Ritchie also has a curveball and a slider, with solid command. Although there’s not a ton of projectability given his smaller size, Ritchie has plenty to be excited about. He’s committed to UCLA.

41. Thomas Harrington, RHP, Campbell
Age: 21 B/T: R/R
High: 35 Low: 48
Harrington has a nice profile as a draft-eligible sophomore who will just be 21 on draft day. Harrington has elite command and possessed one of the best K:BB ratios in the country in 2022. Over 15 starts, he managed a 30.0 K% and 4.9 BB%. On the mound he throws a fastball in the low to mid-90s. Harrington also possesses a changeup with good tumble and a slider, that can both be above average to good pitches. He already has a high floor, and projects to develop further with the upside of a number three starter.

40. Jacob Miller, RHP, Liberty Union High School, OH
Age: 18 B/T: R/R
High: 29 Low: 59
Miller is a Louisville commit who has cranked his fastball up a notch this spring, reaching 96 mph. He also has two good breaking pitches, a slider and a curveball, with a changeup that can still be developed to be a solid pitch. Miller has good command and attacks the strike zone well. He should be picked in the first two rounds.

39. Owen Murphy, SS/RHP, Riverside-Brookfield High School, IL
Age: 18 B/T: R/R
High: 27 Low: NR
Murphy is a two-way prospect committed to Notre Dame. On the mound he throws a low to mid 90s, high spin, four seam fastball. His secondary offerings are led by a good, slurvy curveball, and a developing changeup. Scouts has complimented Murphy’s competitive nature on the mound. He profiles as a mid-rotation starting pitcher.

38. Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East High School, IL
Age: 18 B/T: L/L
High: 24 Low: 49
A 6’9 left-handed pitcher who will be just 18 on draft day, there’s a ton to like about Schultz. Schultz has a three quarter arm slot which, when paired with his length, makes his slider pretty baffling to hitters, especially lefties. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s and he possesses good command and body control, particularly for a pitcher of his size. Schultz is thought to be a difficult sign away from the Commodores. 

37. Brock Jones, OF, Stanford
Age: 21 B/T: L/L
High: 20 Low: 57
Jones is an excellent all around athlete who boasts strong physical tools across the board. His hit tool and a weak arm are his biggest detractors right now. Jones has the opportunity to develop 20 all-aroundhome run power and to stick at center field, with good speed, range, and excellent defense.

36. Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
Age: 20 B/T: R/R
High: 14 Low: 93
There are few players in the 2022 draft class with a wider range of evaluations than Cade Horton, a college right-handed pitcher the Twins have been linked with. Horton ascended draft boards at a remarkable pace off the back of an incredible College World Series performance for Oklahoma. Horton throws a high spin, high carry, 98 mph fastball, a hard slider he cranks up to 90 mph, and a slower curveball. Horton’s profile gives him the ceiling of a number two starting pitcher and his ascent has put him firmly in the round one conversation.

35. Dylan Beavers, OF, Cal
Age: 20 B/T: L/R
High: 22 Low: 52
Beavers is a 6’4, college outfielder with some of the most exciting tools at his position in the draft. He has easy plus power, good speed, strong defense, and an excellent arm. There are lots of questions about his hit tool however as he’s often late to the ball. Beavers upside is a low batting average (.235) with 25-30 home run power who can be an excellent defensive corner outfielder.

34. Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma St
Age: 21 B/T: L/R
High: 27 Low: 39
At 6’7, 220 pounds, Justin Campbell is a big-bodied starting pitcher with a unique approach angle that hitters struggle to pick up. Campbell struck out 141 hitters in 101 innings in 2022 while walking just 25. Campbell’s fastball sits 92-94 mph but can go higher, with good run. Additionally, he offers a solid curveball, developing slider, and an good changeup. Campbell’s high floor will allow him to move quickly in the minors and he profiles as a number three or four starter in the major leagues.

33. Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond High School, SC
Age: 18 B/T: S/R
High: 15 Low: 44
Toman is one of many LSU commitments that could be drafted in the early rounds in mid July. Toman has a fairly wide range of evaluations, typical of a high school prospect. At his best, Toman has a good approach from both sides of the plate, driving the ball to all fields. He has one of the best combinations of hit and power tools of any high schooler in the class, but his defense is fringy at the moment.

32. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Independent Ball
Age: 22 B/T: R/R
High: 19 Low: 54
Rocker is one of the most famous prospects in the entire draft after the Mets balked at signing him due to his medicals in 2021. Rocker has an awesome one two punch with a fastball that an get to 99 mph and a devastating slider. Details of a shoulder surgery in September were recently made public. On talent alone, Rocker is the best non-prep arm in the class. Where he is selected, hinges entirely on his medicals.

31. Blake Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee
Age: 21 B/T: R/R
High: 25 Low: 52
Tidwell missed the first six weeks of the 2022 season due to shoulder soreness. Had he not, he’d likely feature higher on the consensus big board. The Tennessee right-hander features a fastball he can run up to 99 mph, a good sweeping slider, an above average changeup that generated a ton of whiffs, and a developing curveball. Although his command can use some refinement. There’s plenty of clay to be molded here into a good major league starting pitcher.

30. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon St
Age: 21 B/T: L/L
High: 18 Low: 56
Hjerpe has a huge evaluation range for a college pitcher, from 18 overall to 56 overall. Hjerpe doesn’t have a great fastball, which sits at 90-92 mph. Hjerpe combines it with a breaking ball from a three quarters slot that leads to a ton of deception. While Hjerpe doesn’t have a huge ceiling, being a left-handed college starting pitcher will likely elevate his floor to the back of the first round.

29. Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy, FL
Age: 18 B/T: L/L
High: 19 Low: 41
Ferris was an early first-round favorite prior to the beginning of the 2022 season. The 18 year old Ole Miss commit has plenty of projectability in a 6’4, 195 pound frame. Ferris’ fastball sits between 93-95 mph and he has an above average slider and changeup to compliment it. Ferris has suffered from inconsistent command at times, but has plenty of time to develop. He profiles as a mid-rotation starting pitcher if it all comes together. 

28. Robbie Snelling, LHP, McQueen High School, NV
Age: 18 B/T: R/L
High: 16 Low: 55
Snelling is yet another LSU commit who is getting attention in the first two rounds of the draft (good luck telling Wes Johnson ‘no’). Snelling has been a helium prospect this spring, rapidly rising up draft boards in the latter half of the season. On the mound, he throws a fastball that sits between 90-95 mph, an excellent, sharply breaking curveball, and a changeup that he uses infrequently and needs further development. Snelling has good control and his projectability should lead to plenty of interest in the first round.

27. Jacob Melton, OF, Oregon St
Age: 21 B/T: L/L
High: 25 Low: 40
Melton is a college outfielder with a strong all around game. In 2022 he hit 15 home runs, slugged .684, and stole 20 bases. Excellent speed and solid defense give him the opportunity to stick at center field. Melton has a bit too much swing and miss at the plate, but has a strong overall profile and should move relatively quickly when drafted.

26. Peyton Graham, SS/3B, Oklahoma
Age: 21 B/T: R/R
High: 26 Low: 36
Graham has a tight clustering of evaluations due to his solid athleticism and strong overall tools. He slugged .661 with 19 home runs and 32 stolen bases in the regular season for an incredibly successful Oklahoma team. While Graham produces good exit velocities, he is a free swinger who could stand to cut down his strikeout and whiff rates. He has the ability to play multiple infield positions and his strong all-around game should give him a solid floor as an average major league regular.

The second part of the Consensus Big Board (26-1 overall) will be posted at Twins Daily on Friday, July 15th. Who are players you think would be a good fit for the Twins at 48 overall? Or even 8? Share your thoughts in the comments. Any feedback on the project, format etc. will be gratefully received.

 

 

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[Game7-91]

Jamie, thanks for the time and effort putting this together. Love the concept. Not sure what to add beyond what you are doing. Comparing H/L ratings is very cool, unbelievable variances throughout. Imagining that will be less so closer we get to top 10. But makes one wonder what the actual draft boards look like in MLB draft rooms. Eye opening.

Couple things caught my eye:

   1. Twins should nab a high ceiling catcher in 1st or 2nd round.

   2. Pitchers are eating Jack the Beanstalk beans or something.....lots of lanky hurlers.

   3. Surprised change-ups are not part of more reportoires. Not sure why, I just assumed a change was standard to high prospect checklist. Those without would seem to have longer developmental time in MiLB, so wonder if lack of that pitch adversely impacts draft order.

 

Love the content, look forward to seeing top 26!

[Jamie Cameron]

59 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

Jamie, thanks for the time and effort putting this together. Love the concept. Not sure what to add beyond what you are doing. Comparing H/L ratings is very cool, unbelievable variances throughout. Imagining that will be less so closer we get to top 10. But makes one wonder what the actual draft boards look like in MLB draft rooms. Eye opening.

Couple things caught my eye:

   1. Twins should nab a high ceiling catcher in 1st or 2nd round.

   2. Pitchers are eating Jack the Beanstalk beans or something.....lots of lanky hurlers.

   3. Surprised change-ups are not part of more reportoires. Not sure why, I just assumed a change was standard to high prospect checklist. Those without would seem to have longer developmental time in MiLB, so wonder if lack of that pitch adversely impacts draft order.

 

Love the content, look forward to seeing top 26!

Thank you for taking the time to read and post, really appreciate the kind words.

1. I really like Rushing as a C option for the Twins in the second round. Big bat, and the Twins have shown an affinity for improving C defense.

3. The reason there are so few good ones is that, especially in high school, the best arms don't need one. They can rely on a fastball slider combo and are so dominant, their changeups get very little play. A lot are developmental pitches that they incorporate more actively after they turn pro.

Thanks again for reading.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Jamie for such a great job of putting together this evaluation.

[Jamie Cameron]

10 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks Jamie for such a great job of putting together this evaluation.

Thanks for taking the time to read and comment. I really appreciate it.

[terrydactyls]

Mikey Romero and Tanner Logan look like great 2nd picks for the Twins.  Both have strong defense and good offense.  And they both play important positions.

[Jamie Cameron]

16 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Mikey Romero and Tanner Logan look like great 2nd picks for the Twins.  Both have strong defense and good offense.  And they both play important positions.

I've gotten more and more into the idea of the Twins selecting a catcher relatively early (I like Rushing a lot too). I think it's a strong possibility they alternate college/high school with their first two picks also save in one slot and pay up in another. Thanks for commenting!

[TwinsAce]

I was also pleasantly surprised to see Tanner and Rushing in the 2nd round range.  I would love to get one of those guys or a pitcher that has high upside but had an injury with our 2nd pick.  Love this list and love the thought of 100 even next year.

It would be awesome if there is a link to this during the draft, potentially with a spot to put which team drafted them and pick #.  Curious to see how many players will still be around after the first day due to signability or other concerns.

[Heiny]

Wow,  great article.  Am quite surprised at how the comments are reinforcing my thoughts to this point.  I would like to have the Twins take one of the top all around athletes in the first round, but focus on catcher in the second.  I am also on the Rushing and Logan bandwagon.  (taking into account how little I know).  I have been reading a lot about the draft prospects and love the idea of the consensus.  Nice work and I will be looking forward to the top 26.  Thanks.