Twins Daily Draft Preview: Cade Horton

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I know what you're thinking, "Wait a second. I thought you promised only one pitcher in your ten profiles?"

And that is exactly the truth. But since we're suckers for the draft, we expanded the coverage and push those profiles over 10.

As a result, you're getting another pitcher.

 

 

Cade Horton wasn't on our radar when we mapped out our draft coverage. And he probably doesn't need to be now. 

But we didn't want to leave any stone unturned and when we've heard #8 mentioned as Horton's ceiling... well, that makes our ears perk up.

Who is He?
Cade Horton is a right-handed, two-way, draft-eligible redshirt freshman for the Oklahoma Sooners. He's less two-way now and more pitcher, but that's really ambitious to say about a guy with all of 53 2/3 collegiate innings under his belt (as opposed to 168 plate appearances). Horton, though, took the world by storm by dominating in the College World Series. Years prior, a post-draft performance like that propels him to the top of the 2023 mock drafts. But because the draft is later now, Omaha heroics can pay immediate dividends.

Horton, the prospect, is a 20-year-old, just over six foot, power arm who is less than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery. He's possesses a mid-to-high 90s fastball with movement, a potentially devastating near-90 mph slider and a curveball that isn't great, but is there.

Why Will the Twins Draft Him?
The upside is incredible and this meteoric rise didn't come from nowhere. He was a potential first-day pick in 2020, but had an enormous price tag. Now healthy and given the opportunity, he's everything scouts believed he could be. 

It's no secret the Twins are led by a group that cherishes pitching - and if you don't believe that, go look at prospect lists from the mid-2010s - and Horton may have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the entire draft, college or pro. 

Horton, like Connor Prielipp, just needs an extended opportunity to show that, when and if healthy, he can be one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. 

Why the Twins Won't Draft Him?
52 2/3 college innings. About 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Bonus demands that don't seem to have come down from when he was a high schooler. Putting your faith in a 6' 1" pitcher to be a frontline guy... 

Want me to go on?

There's a number of reasons to not draft him, but the reality is that you can find warts on every prospect. A wise baseball man once told me that "players get told their whole lives what they can't do, we're drafting players based on what they can do" and what Horton can do - albeit in a small sample size - is very impressive.

The mention of the price tag in almost every draft report doesn't go unnoticed and may mark Horton as a prime example of someone who is going to drop a little and then sign for way over slot. Could a team like the Royals have a replay of their 2013 draft? One that saw them draft Hunter Dozier at #8, pay him mid-first round money, only to turn around and give 34th overall pick Sean Manaea the fifth biggest bonus of the draft? Horton, in this example, is Manaea... and I would guess not the Royals given they just traded the prime pick (35) to make this happen. 

Do the Twins get crafty with #8 (Jett Williams and $3.2 million?) and then play the waiting game on Horton at #48 (and $4 million?), because that would be quite a feat. (And is completely conjecture before anyone flies off the handle.)

What do you do? Interest in Horton or just a flat pass?

 

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[tony&rodney]

A pitcher might be a good choice at #8, but if choosing an arm happens I'm going for Dylan Lesko.

[Dman]

If you ask me the Twins have a lot of young bats breaking into the major's right now with more on the way at AA and AAA. Even at the lower levels they have guys like Rodriquez, Rosario, Urbina, Miller, Aguier and Cespedes not to mention CES a level above in his first pro year. 

If they wanted to they could go all in on arms this year.  They could take pitchers in the first three picks and go from there.  For as great as the pitching pipeline has been there are signs it is backing up.  Balazovich looks lost.  Henriquez looks lucky to be a pen arm.  Canterino looks bound for the pen.  Sands can't seem to put things together.  SWR has been average at best.  Strotman appears to be a bust.  Enlow who knows.  So there doesn't seem to be much at the top anymore that I can see.  Pitching went from strength to weakness in a hurry.  

So yeah if the Twins wanted to change approach I think this would be a good year to take chances on pitchers especially arms that have already had TJ as that is one less thing to worry about once they get started in the system.

Certainly the safe play is a hitter as it is a strong group through about the first 12 picks IMO.  You could lose out on an elite bat if you went pitcher at 8 but you would also get first pick of whatever pitcher you wanted as well.  If they could do a deal with Jet and get a top line starter in the second saving money on the 1st round pick that sounds like a best case scenario but I would do that if possible as well.  At any rate the system is strong enough with hitters that they could go all in on pitching to try and strengthen the weakest part of the system.

[chpettit19]

I think signability stuff is going to be bigger this year than ever because of all the pitcher injuries. Is someone going to try to collect multiple top arms by taking one early for under slot? Will it be the Twins? Will be fun to watch.

[Blyleven2011]

Pass on Horton    ....

He's in it for the money , not for love of the game  ....

Quite obvious with his demands ... and he wasn't considered a first rounder until he dominated the college world series ,,,, 

Even a blind squirrel can find a acorn  once in a while  ..

 

To much risk  here on him .

Still I like a need of catcher for the 8th selection 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

51 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Still I like a need of catcher for the 8th selection 

Unless Parada drops, drafting a catcher at 8 would be a really bad idea.

The exception being the Twins really believe Susac (or someone else) is the next big thing and they can sign him for millions less than slot (like comp round money).

Any outcome drafting a catcher at 8 other than those would be a complete failure.

 

[Blyleven2011]

2 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Unless Parada drops, drafting a catcher at 8 would be a really bad idea.

The exception being the Twins really believe Susac (or someone else) is the next big thing and they can sign him for millions less than slot (like comp round money).

Any outcome drafting a catcher at 8 other than those would be a complete failure.

 

Yes  , parada  is who I have in mind  If he drops  to eighth in the first round   ...  susac  would be the other choice  but maybe not in first round for twins  , maybe comp pick.....

[Doctor Gast]

If we can't pick up Parada, then I'd go w/ a pitcher. Do you think that we could pick up Susac in the 2nd round? Probably not, but do you think that we'd draft Susac 1st round? I think we really need a catcher in the upper rounds. Do you think there'll be any jockeying in draft pick via trades?

[Blyleven2011]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

If we can't pick up Parada, then I'd go w/ a pitcher. Do you think that we could pick up Susac in the 2nd round? Probably not, but do you think that we'd draft Susac 1st round? 

I wouldn't  sign susac in the first round that high ,,, I think I've seen  the yankees  are interested in him in first round ,,, just a mock inkling  ....

A first round pitcher with high ceiling ( ace , stud , bulldog ) would be nice to replace petty who we traded for sonny gray  ....

I'm not sure there are any  of his caliber  rated that high  but twins may think differently 

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Pass on Horton    ....

He's in it for the money , not for love of the game  ....

Quite obvious with his demands ... and he wasn't considered a first rounder until he dominated the college world series ,,,, 

I would argue that comment is really just conjecture and that, he would not have gotten to this point if he didn't have a "love of the game".  You don't succeed at that level and on that stage if you don't.

And those "demands"... the other day I told a story about a kid who graduated 3-4 years ahead of my son (from the same HS) and who was seriously being considered by the Cubs and Red Sox as a top 10 round type of player.  However, he is a deeply faith based young man who truly values what his word means and he had committed to UGA to play baseball.  He told the Cubs that it would take at least top 3 round money for him to give up his commit and dream of playing college ball.  Not because he was greedy or didn't love the game, but he wanted to make sure if he was going to miss out on one dream, he had a safety net for the other.

So I guess my point is that when we hear sky high demands, we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the young man as morally corrupt.  There is often more to the story than any of us could ever guess.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

23 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

So I guess my point is that when we hear sky high demands, we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the young man as morally corrupt.  There is often more to the story than any of us could ever guess.

From what I can find: Born in Norman. Grew up in Norman. Graduated from Norman High School. Probably dreamed of being a Sooner since birth (committed there to play baseball and football).

I'd say it's probably the kid just really likes Norman, Oklahoma and the only thing that's going to take him away is a lot of cash. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I wouldn't  sign susac in the first round that high ,,, I think I've seen  the yankees  are interested in him in first round ,,, just a mock inkling  ....

A first round pitcher with high ceiling ( ace , stud , bulldog ) would be nice to replace petty who we traded for sonny gray  ....

I'm not sure there are any  of his caliber  rated that high  but twins may think differently 

I really hope there's someone better than last year's 13th pitcher taken available in this class. Bunch of arms that were rated that high until they all got hurt.

[NorthernAggression]

What about Rocker? He seems like the type of arm that could be up in the bullpen in September. It would probably be giving up some upside for help now, but he was a top 10 pick last year. (This assumes solid medicals)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

9 minutes ago, NorthernAggression said:

What about Rocker? He seems like the type of arm that could be up in the bullpen in September. It would probably be giving up some upside for help now, but he was a top 10 pick last year. (This assumes solid medicals)

Just yesterday, Doogie said they've seen plenty of Rocker and that it is most likely not going to happen.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Sounds like if we took him at 8 that it would be considered kind of a reach.  Can we trade down and get other picks later on?  I see this in other drafts (e.g. NFL, MLB) but never seem to see it in MLB.  Why is that and is this a good case to move down and take him later on?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Sounds like if we took him at 8 that it would be considered kind of a reach.  Can we trade down and get other picks later on?  I see this in other drafts (e.g. NFL, MLB) but never seem to see it in MLB.  Why is that and is this a good case to move down and take him later on?

Only picks that can be traded are competitive balance picks (so the Twins could trade pick 48). 

I'd love to see picks be allowed to be traded, it just is never agreed upon in the CBA. I'm guessing it's has a little to do with fear the free-spending teams would try to buy off the low-spending teams to set themselves up to get the best players quicker.

It's a lot cheaper to give the Orioles $20, $30, $50 million and a few prospects to draft Druw Jones than it is to wait until he's a free agent and pay him $300 million.

[terrydactyls]

18 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

I would argue that comment is really just conjecture and that, he would not have gotten to this point if he didn't have a "love of the game".  You don't succeed at that level and on that stage if you don't.

And those "demands"... the other day I told a story about a kid who graduated 3-4 years ahead of my son (from the same HS) and who was seriously being considered by the Cubs and Red Sox as a top 10 round type of player.  However, he is a deeply faith based young man who truly values what his word means and he had committed to UGA to play baseball.  He told the Cubs that it would take at least top 3 round money for him to give up his commit and dream of playing college ball.  Not because he was greedy or didn't love the game, but he wanted to make sure if he was going to miss out on one dream, he had a safety net for the other.

So I guess my point is that when we hear sky high demands, we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the young man as morally corrupt.  There is often more to the story than any of us could ever guess.

But in the end, he was very willing to turn is back on his "truly values what his word means" statement if he got "top 3 round money".  Interesting.

[MN_ExPat]

11 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

But in the end, he was very willing to turn is back on his "truly values what his word means" statement if he got "top 3 round money".  Interesting.

That's a very black and white take.  Understandable, but I will try to elaborate.

Every HS and college coach I've every spoken to have agreed with that.  They understand that view and even plan their recruiting around it (colleges, not necessarily HS ).  Schools will offer more kids than they have spots for, simply because of attrition due to life (things like the draft, not qualifying to get into the school, simply not willing/able to adjust to the next level, etc.).

I will stand behind the young man (who is now a senior at UGA) and support his stance on that topic.  He understood the playing field he was entering, and he stuck to his word.

My point was/is this... he loved baseball and wanted to play on the highest stages.  His first choice was college because he truly wanted to be a part of that experience, but... he wasn't stupid.  If someone was willing to give him the type of money that a pick such as that entails to play ball, he would have been a fool not to take it. But since he really wanted to play in college, he essential called the Cubs bluff and said if you really want me to walk away from my commitment, make it worth my while. 

In the end, as much as they wanted him (the teams Senior Scout and front office came to South Georgia to watch him play multiple times and they flew him up to Wrigley for workouts), they didn't want to make that call and thus he happily went to college.

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

19 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Only picks that can be traded are competitive balance picks (so the Twins could trade pick 48). 

I'd love to see picks be allowed to be traded, it just is never agreed upon in the CBA. I'm guessing it's has a little to do with fear the free-spending teams would try to buy off the low-spending teams to set themselves up to get the best players quicker.

It's a lot cheaper to give the Orioles $20, $30, $50 million and a few prospects to draft Druw Jones than it is to wait until he's a free agent and pay him $300 million.

Thanks for clarifying Jeremy.