Twins 4, Brewers 1: Miranda Walks Off the Brewers!

[Thiéres Rabelo]

It was a fantastic afternoon for pitchers at Target Field, with both teams holding each other to one run each until the bottom of the ninth. But José Miranda came through against one of baseball’s best closers to walk off the Brewers and even the series.

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, 5 1/3 IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 3K (78 pitches, 50 strikes, 64.1%)
Home Runs: Jose Miranda (8)
Too 3 WPA: Max Kepler (.250), Joe Ryan (.190), Jhoan Duran (.133)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Coming off one of his roughest starts of the season exactly one week ago, Joe Ryan was determined to turn the page. The last time he was on the mound, he allowed three runs to score (one unearned) while giving up five hits and two walks in just four innings. It was only the third time this season in which he didn’t pitch more than four frames, the first one since May 10.

This time around, he looked much sharper and comfortable with his command. If against the White Sox last week, it took him 85 pitches to get through four today, he did it on only 56 pitches with nearly 70% strikes. He was mostly lights out during that span, throwing three 1-2-3 innings and doing so with the lead after two: after Ryan Jeffers and Alex Kirilloff reached on a two-out walk and a hit by pitch, respectively, Gilberto Celestino drove in Jeffers with a liner to center.

But Milwaukee tied the game right at the beginning of the third inning with a leadoff home run by Jace Peterson. Celestino made his best effort to steal it at the track, but he fell short. Victor Caratini hit a single right after Peterson’s home run, threatening a Brewer rally, but Ryan didn’t let it get to him, as it appears to have happened a week ago. He followed that single by retiring seven in a row. He did give up back-to-back walks in the fifth but once again was able to pitch around those to end the inning.

Minnesota can’t take advantage of runners in scoring position
In last night’s game, the Twins lineup had trouble getting men on base, especially against the Milwaukee bullpen. This afternoon, however, Minnesota matched last night’s total hits (six) with only five innings. The problem? They couldn’t capitalize on those runners. Through five, the Twins went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and had a total of nine men left on base. During the fifth inning, Kyle Garlick and José Miranda hit back-to-back one-out singles, ending Aaron Ashby’s afternoon. Minnesota brought in Luis Arraez to pinch hit for Gio Urshela, but reliever Trevor Gott took care of things and stranded both runners.

The Brewers defense didn’t make things any easier for Minnesota either. After Carlos Correa drew a leadoff walk in the seventh, Jorge Polanco blasted a long flyball to deep center that had a 66% expected batting average and would very likely turn into an RBI extra-base hit. But Jonathan Davis robbed him of the hit with an outstanding defensive play.

But that didn’t stop the Twins' momentum. In that same inning, Max Kepler hit a long double to right, which also sent Correa to third. Miranda popped out next for the second out, then Milwaukee chose to intentionally walk Arráez to load the bases. Jeffers hit a grounder towards second that caused Kolten Wong some problems with its weird hop, but he ultimately was able to make a beautiful play to beat Arráez at second.

After Ryan departed the game in the sixth inning, the Twins bullpen took over and did a fine job holding back Milwaukee’s offense. Caleb Thielbar (1 1/3), Griffin Jax (1 1/3), and Jhoan Duran (1.0) combined for 3 2/3 scoreless frames. They pretty much kept alive Minnesota’s chances of winning the game on a walk-off. The problem was that the Brewer bullpen was just as dominant. Gott, Brad Boxberger, and Devin Williams combined for 3 2/3 shutout innings, setting it up for baseball’s best closer in Josh Hader – who only had one blown save this entire season, over a month ago. A recipe for disaster, right?

But the Twins offense fought against the odds and managed to overcome such a dominant opponent. Polanco worked a leadoff walk and was followed by a Kepler single. After a mound visit, it was up to Miranda, who was having a two-hit day. He smoked a three-run homer to the second deck of left field to end the game in amazing fashion.

What’s Next?
Minnesota continues their homestand tomorrow when they begin a four-game set against division foes Chicago White Sox. Game 1 will have Sonny Gray (3.03 ERA) looking for a bounceback start against Johnny Cueto (2.91 ERA). The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm CDT.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Thielbar	0	23	0	0	29	52
Duffey	26	21	0	0	0	47
Megill	22	0	0	24	0	46
Duran	14	16	0	0	15	45
Jax	15	11	0	0	16	42
Moran	0	0	0	22	0	22
Pagan	0	0	0	13	0	13
Cotton	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

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[SanoMustGo]

Miranda, Kiriloff and Larnach are going to be fantastic MLB hitters, Celestino may be too.  Duran and Ryan good pitchers.  Not sure we can trust Lewis with all his knee injuries any longer.  Lets hope the organization can build around these guys.  We'll take any win when the team is struggling.

[MplsFan]

15 minutes ago, SanoMustGo said:

Miranda, Kiriloff and Larnach are going to be fantastic MLB hitters, Celestino may be too.  Duran and Ryan good pitchers.  Not sure we can trust Lewis with all his knee injuries any longer.  Lets hope the organization can build around these guys.  

Yes.  Don’t know if I’m as sold on Larnach as I am on Kiriloff and Miranda, but wow I’m excited for those two young guys!

[adjacent]

Maybe I am showing my ignorance on how WPA is calculated. But, Miranda hit the walk-off home run, and is not in the top3? If somebody can explain, thank you!

[se7799]

I have to ask.. forgive the ignorance on my part.  Why would Miranda not be in top 3 of WPA?  I'm trying to understand this stat.  Thankyou 

[rwilfong86]

Miranda with one of his best games as a pro, came up clutch today.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, adjacent said:

Maybe I am showing my ignorance on how WPA is calculated. But, Miranda hit the walk-off home run, and is not in the top3? If somebody can explain, thank you!

Odds were VERY HIGH the Twins score once they had two on and nobody out. So, he didn't add much to the odds of winning. 

[Linus]

Didn’t see the game. Did we finally play a clean game?

[se7799]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Odds were VERY HIGH the Twins score once they had two on and nobody out. So, he didn't add much to the odds of winning. 

Thanks so much for this explanation Mike.

[se7799]

26 minutes ago, Linus said:

Didn’t see the game. Did we finally play a clean game?

Love winning in the bottom of the 9th against Hader!  Great fun game.

[cHawk]

Glad we pulled out the win. On to the White Sox. Let’s sweep those guys and roll into the break strong

[tony&rodney]

Jeffers, Kirilloff, Miranda, Arraez, Gordon, Celestino, and the injured Larnach and Lewis are all young players supported by some talented veterans in Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Urshela, and Sanchez. Young pitchers include Ryan, Winder, Ober, Duran, and Jax. Gray, Archer, Smeltzer, and Bundy along with a few relievers have done decent. The Twins are showing they can compete with other good teams on a regular basis this year. It has been fun to date.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Fun way to end the game. I go back to what I said a couple of weeks ago, let's have Miranda and Kirilloff in the lineup (almost) every day through July and see what they do. On offense, all this team really needed is 1 or 2 more middle of the order bats to go with Arraez, Correa. Buxton and Polanco at the front of the order. Kepler is not that bat; he would be much better continuing his fine defensive work and hitting 7th. Same for Urshela and the catchers are what they are, average offensive players for catchers which is to say, not great. I'm really hopeful after the last 2 weeks that Miranda and Kirilloff can be those 2 middle of the order bats. With Larnach and Sano potentially coming back, maybe 1 of then can even add another bat. That way we don't need any hitting help at the deadline and can focus whatever resources we want to use in the trade market to what we really need, late inning relief pitching and a quality starter in that order.

I would love to see the "standard" lineup for the rest of this month and into August look something like this:

Arraez 1B/DH

Correa SS

Polanco 2B

Buxton CF/DH

Kirilloff LF

Miranda 1B/3B/DH

Kepler RF

Urshela/Gordon/Sano/Garlick, etc.  - Fill in/DH

Jeffers/Sanchez C

[rv78]

With Rocco there is no "standard" lineup. You should know that by now. His idea of "managing" is to change the lineup every day. Then some guys here wonder why there is no consistancy offensively. If you don't play pretty much every day with a feel for who is hitting in front of you and behind you in the lineup, every day, it can be difficult to be consistant. 

By the way, what's up with Buxton. He's looking more and more like a Sano. Not good!

[darwin22]

2 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Miranda with one of his best games as a pro, came up clutch today.

Having seen Miranda in 4 games last year when he was with Wichita------before his promotion to AAA, it sure is satisfying to see him make some adjustments from his rough early star to the season.  My "eye test" seems to indicate he's becoming more relaxed/confident at the plate.  Defensively, he's not there yet, but he seems much more comfortable at 3B.

[bighat]

3 hours ago, SanoMustGo said:

Miranda, Kiriloff and Larnach are going to be fantastic MLB hitters, Celestino may be too.  Duran and Ryan good pitchers.  Not sure we can trust Lewis with all his knee injuries any longer.  Lets hope the organization can build around these guys.  We'll take any win when the team is struggling.

So far Miranda has done what the others haven't: stayed on the field. Kirilloff seems to be coming around but I think Larnach is still very much a coin flip on whether or not he'll be a serviceable MLB athlete.

There's Miranda, then AK.....but there's a pretty big gap between those two and Larnach/Celestino IMO.

[jkcarew]

53 minutes ago, bighat said:

So far Miranda has done what the others haven't: stayed on the field. Kirilloff seems to be coming around but I think Larnach is still very much a coin flip on whether or not he'll be a serviceable MLB athlete.

There's Miranda, then AK.....but there's a pretty big gap between those two and Larnach/Celestino IMO.

Fwiw, Kirilloff and Larnach have been just about exactly the same offensive players this year so far.  Same OBP, same SLG. Kirilloff strikes out less, but walks less…their XBH rates per PA are also very similar. Meanwhile, Miranda is a lower OBP guy, but a significantly higher SLG guy (so far).  I really like the Kirilloff and Miranda upside if they learn how to make pitchers throw them strikes, which is where Larnach is ahead of them.

[stringer bell]

Miranda, like almost every hitter, is a better hitter ahead in the count. He still chases too much to suit me, but he has improved.  Same for his defense.  
 

Kirilloff is going to be a fine hitter and I think his eventual defensive home is first base. 
 

Larnach looked very good until he was injured the first time. I am not yet convinced he will develop into a star. 

[baul0010]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Odds were VERY HIGH the Twins score once they had two on and nobody out. So, he didn't add much to the odds of winning. 

I guess whoever this WPA is they've not seen how many times the Twins have had 2 or 3 runners on with no outs.... And have not scored a run.  

[jkcarew]

I’m not panicking on Buxton. This is who he’s been (when available) for the last 3 years now. Trying to pull the ball and get it in the air. He doesn’t (or can’t) make adjustments…and has streaks where he does nothing but pop/fly out and K. But over an extended period of time now, the HR/FB rate (and ISO) have been other-worldly.  His long-range value…say as a 34 year old corner outfielder or DH…may be problematic, but I’ll take what we’re getting.

On the flip side…practically the lowest OBP on the team (career safely under 300) and highest SLG by a mile…and on pace to steal 4 bases on the season…where do you put him in the batting order? 4th against lefty starter, 5th otherwise. Then protect him with another power bat that has a decent matchup that day among guys like Miranda/Kepler/maybe Sano. Talking to you, Rocco.

 

 

 

[Eephus]

What happened when the Miranda homer landed? Did it bank off a couple of people? Very catchable ball for fans but no one was scrambling for it?

[ashbury]

I doubt if Hader makes many pitches, over the course of a season, fatter than that one to Miranda .

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, baul0010 said:

I guess whoever this WPA is they've not seen how many times the Twins have had 2 or 3 runners on with no outs.... And have not scored a run.  

Getting men on is a positive for WPA; failing to drive them in and making outs in the process are a negative.  But teamwise it all balances out, just as though they'd gone down one-two-three.

You can only score 0 runs once per inning. 

WPA won't satisfy anyone's lust for vengeance, I'm afraid.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I doubt if Hader makes many pitches, over the course of a season, fatter than that one to Miranda .

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Please, PLEASE, PUH-LEEZE don't make me watch another YouTube broadcast!

[Aichiman]

The good: Miranda

The bad: The top of the batting order

The Ugly: 208.  Let's see, we've got four more games.  I wonder if our "All Star" center fielder can get his batting average below 200 for the All Star Game.  I think it's possible.

[Whitey333]

Great job Miranda and twins pitching yesterday.  If the twins could ever put it all together for an extended period they would be nearly unstoppable.  Too many runners left on base.  Failing to advance runners on multiple occasions.  Yet a nice rookie, Miranda bailed them out.  What about the great superstars of Correa and Buxton.  Where have their bats been?  They have both been awful for an extended period especially the great Buxton.  

[AceWrigley]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Odds were VERY HIGH the Twins score once they had two on and nobody out. So, he didn't add much to the odds of winning. 

But this is the Twins. Men in scoring position with no outs leads to no runs more than most would like. Vive la Miranda.

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

I doubt if Hader makes many pitches, over the course of a season, fatter than that one to Miranda .

It was a really good take on the first pitch forcing Hader more into the zone with two on base.

[adjacent]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Odds were VERY HIGH the Twins score once they had two on and nobody out. So, he didn't add much to the odds of winning. 

So, if I understood correctly, Miranda's WPA would have been 1 - the Twins probability to win tha game at that moment (+/- other contributions that Miranda had earlier in the game). Thanks