Can the Twins right the ship?

[Major League Ready]

On 7/15/2022 at 10:56 AM, chpettit19 said:

I'm starting to lean this way, too. It feels like such a waste of Correa, though. I think they could afford him on a 7 year deal, but I don't see it happening and it feels unsporting to not at least take a Braves approach to the deadline and bring in a few pieces in the pen and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle come October.

I'm still confused as to why Kepler hits where he does in the lineup. I like Kepler and think he's a starter on a championship caliber team, but not in the 4 hole. Hit him 7th where he belongs. Arraez, Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kirilloff, and Miranda would be the top 6 in my lineup (against righties at least) in some order. Kepler, Urshella, Gordon, the catchers, Celestino, and Garlick can hit in the 7-9 holes when they start.

Biggest concern to me is that the part of the starting pitcher pipeline that was supposed to be ready this year looks like it's going to produce Winder only. Now that's not terrible if Ryan can stabilize as a #2 type starter, Winder as a #3 type and Ober as a #4 or 5, but Sand, Balazovic, Enlow, Canterino, and Strotman are showing why people say you need 10 pitching prospects to get a couple major leaguers. If this wave produces Ryan, Winder, Ober in the rotation, and Duran, Jax, and dare I dream on Canterino in the pen it's certainly a nice outcome. Varland is a wildcard for me. But they're going to have to invest in some better arms than they like to for the next couple years while they hope Hajjar, Povich, SWR, and Henriquez can develop and reinforce them. They're in a tough spot as the pipeline sputters and they're going to have to adjust some plans and I think that starts over the next few weeks. Stick with building through the pipeline or sacrifice some prospects for some guys with a little control to bridge to the prospects again?

They have a lull in the pitching pipeline.  That could be filled by a trade this year and possibly next year.  After, this year, they could dramatically change the team's projection for several years by adding a top of the rotation SP and a high leverage RP this off-season in free agency.  All of this young talent has put them in a position where they could easily spend $60M AAV on top free agents.  The only hole they have to plug is catcher.   It's not like other seasons where they needed 2 or 3 starters to fill a rotation.

The rotation would be:

Free Agent / Gray / Ryan / Winder / Ober and Smeltzer / Dobnak.  Paddack will be at some point and Maeda is a wild card.  His innings will be limited so he probably pitches out of the BP in a multi-inning role.

The pen would be:

Duran / Free Agent / Alcala / Jax / Megill and some combination of Canterino / Thielbar / Columbe / Moran / Hamilton / Sisk / Schulfer and Henriguez.

prospects like Balazovic or Steer is not going to land difference maker pitchers.   Balazovic's value is at an all-time low and Steer is just not the profile that lands top pitching.  They are going to want pitching or a very high profile position player.  It will take Ryan / Winder / Kirilloff / Miranda type prospects.  There is no way in hell they are leveraging the furure for this year's mediocre team.  So, I am hoping for a couple RPs this year and a Joe Musgrove type addition in the off-season.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

They have a lull in the pitching pipeline.  That could be filled by a trade this year and possibly next year.  After, this year, they could dramatically change the team's projection for several years by adding a top of the rotation SP and a high leverage RP this off-season in free agency.  All of this young talent has put them in a position where they could easily spend $60M AAV on top free agents.  The only hole they have to plug is catcher.   It's not like other seasons where they needed 2 or 3 starters to fill a rotation.

The rotation would be:

Free Agent / Gray / Ryan / Winder / Ober and Smeltzer / Dobnak.  Paddack will be at some point and Maeda is a wild card.  His innings will be limited so he probably pitches out of the BP in a multi-inning role.

The pen would be:

Duran / Free Agent / Alcala / Jax / Megill and some combination of Canterino / Thielbar / Columbe / Moran / Hamilton / Sisk / Schulfer and Henriguez.

prospects like Balazovic or Steer is not going to land difference maker pitchers.   Balazovic's value is at an all-time low and Steer is just not the profile that lands top pitching.  They are going to want pitching or a very high profile position player.  It will take Ryan / Winder / Kirilloff / Miranda type prospects.  There is no way in hell they are leveraging the furure for this year's mediocre team.  So, I am hoping for a couple RPs this year and a Joe Musgrove type addition in the off-season.

IMO, not really sure there is a lull, can any team really believe they can sustain multiple rookies being brought up every year and win? The pipeline gave them Ober, Jax, Alcala last year and Winder, Duran and Moran this year, I don't say Ryan is part of the pipeline since spent all of 9 innings in the Twins minors leagues, The FO does get huge credit for getting him though. Next year or later this year they need another starter and relief pitcher to step it up. That would give them 3 starters (4 with Ryan) and half a bullpen, and if they can keep that up for a few years they should be set with pitching.

On a side note if I am an agent or a starting pitcher like Musgrove no chance I am signing with the Twins, none, unless the make some guarantee that I won't be used as a five/six inning guy under a 100 pitch type of guy.

Completely agree with you that Balazovic and Steer aren't going to land you difference makers and the Twins are not trading Ryan/Winder/AK/Miranda type prospects this year, but they need to do something kind of big to keep the fans from brandishing their torches and pitch forks because after early exits in 19 and 20, the disaster of 21 and blowing 22 (if that happens) good luck getting fans in Target field.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, not really sure there is a lull, can any team really believe they can sustain multiple rookies being brought up every year and win? The pipeline gave them Ober, Jax, Alcala last year and Winder, Duran and Moran this year, I don't say Ryan is part of the pipeline since spent all of 9 innings in the Twins minors leagues, The FO does get huge credit for getting him though. Next year or later this year they need another starter and relief pitcher to step it up. That would give them 3 starters (4 with Ryan) and half a bullpen, and if they can keep that up for a few years they should be set with pitching.

On a side note if I am an agent or a starting pitcher like Musgrove no chance I am signing with the Twins, none, unless the make some guarantee that I won't be used as a five/six inning guy under a 100 pitch type of guy.

Completely agree with you that Balazovic and Steer aren't going to land you difference makers and the Twins are not trading Ryan/Winder/AK/Miranda type prospects this year, but they need to do something kind of big to keep the fans from brandishing their torches and pitch forks because after early exits in 19 and 20, the disaster of 21 and blowing 22 (if that happens) good luck getting fans in Target field.

I agree on point 1 in that a continuous pipeline is difficult or nearly impossible.  However, Chpettit's characterization was still correct in that there will likely be a gap and that's a detriment to contending.  Therefore, the question IMO is how is this addressed.  Do you trade for Montas and fill the gap or do you sign a big free agent.  Montas gives you a better shot this year.  A big free agent gives you a much better scenario for several years because they could sign a Musgrove or Rodon and keep the Kirilloff / Miranda / Winder type players it will take to get them.

As to would Musgrove sign here .... There is a constant barrage of people who are adamant that player X will come here if the twins offer is the highest compensation so the premise they won't come because the twins will take them out earlier is a convenient argument.  Taking them out earlier protects them from injury and most pitchers will perform better when the opposing team sees them less times through the order.  If I was an agent, I would be advising my client that's a good thing for their career.

On the 3rd point, I think that's another convenient argument.  Did Boston Fans quit coming when they traded Betts, Cardinals fans when they traded Pujlos, Washington fans when they let Harper walk, and on and on.  Fans come when the team has a good product.  Yes, it would be beneficial to do something but most of the moves promoted here will be detrimental long-term and therefore detrimental to the gate receipts at target field.  

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, not really sure there is a lull, can any team really believe they can sustain multiple rookies being brought up every year and win? The pipeline gave them Ober, Jax, Alcala last year and Winder, Duran and Moran this year, I don't say Ryan is part of the pipeline since spent all of 9 innings in the Twins minors leagues, The FO does get huge credit for getting him though. Next year or later this year they need another starter and relief pitcher to step it up. That would give them 3 starters (4 with Ryan) and half a bullpen, and if they can keep that up for a few years they should be set with pitching.

On a side note if I am an agent or a starting pitcher like Musgrove no chance I am signing with the Twins, none, unless the make some guarantee that I won't be used as a five/six inning guy under a 100 pitch type of guy.

Completely agree with you that Balazovic and Steer aren't going to land you difference makers and the Twins are not trading Ryan/Winder/AK/Miranda type prospects this year, but they need to do something kind of big to keep the fans from brandishing their torches and pitch forks because after early exits in 19 and 20, the disaster of 21 and blowing 22 (if that happens) good luck getting fans in Target field.

I

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They have a lull in the pitching pipeline.  That could be filled by a trade this year and possibly next year.  After, this year, they could dramatically change the team's projection for several years by adding a top of the rotation SP and a high leverage RP this off-season in free agency.  All of this young talent has put them in a position where they could easily spend $60M AAV on top free agents.  The only hole they have to plug is catcher.   It's not like other seasons where they needed 2 or 3 starters to fill a rotation.

The rotation would be:

Free Agent / Gray / Ryan / Winder / Ober and Smeltzer / Dobnak.  Paddack will be at some point and Maeda is a wild card.  His innings will be limited so he probably pitches out of the BP in a multi-inning role.

The pen would be:

Duran / Free Agent / Alcala / Jax / Megill and some combination of Canterino / Thielbar / Columbe / Moran / Hamilton / Sisk / Schulfer and Henriguez.

prospects like Balazovic or Steer is not going to land difference maker pitchers.   Balazovic's value is at an all-time low and Steer is just not the profile that lands top pitching.  They are going to want pitching or a very high profile position player.  It will take Ryan / Winder / Kirilloff / Miranda type prospects.  There is no way in hell they are leveraging the furure for this year's mediocre team.  So, I am hoping for a couple RPs this year and a Joe Musgrove type addition in the off-season.

I think you're right but aren't we missing one possible trade guy - Trevor Larnach? Good defensive OF, strong bat, multiple years of control left. Yeah he's now hurt but for Oakland and CIncy the year is toast any way. 

I agree that getting a top end pitcher will cost us a premium prospect plus one or more more solid ones. My view is that the premium prospects to consider trading, in order, are Larnach because he's duplicative of Kirilloff in LF now that Arraez is the 1B (and I hope they trade for Josh Bell and then keep him, plus we have Sano to deal with), and . . .  maybe Ober or Winder but not both? No way I would trade Kirilloff, Miranda, Ryan, Jeffers, or Duran.  Celestino and Steer are nice prospects but secondary pieces in a deal for a good starter, not primary ones. They might be good enough to get us a strong bullpen piece. 

I would make a deal for a strong starter IF Larnach would be the headline prospect or maybe if it were Winder or Ober but not 2 of those 3. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins have had Archer on the roster the whole year and he is a long man pretending to be a starter. I think point is when you have multiple guys that rarely ever see the 5th inning in a start, you need guys in the pen that can go 3 or 4 innings. So are they "long men" so to speak or pitchers that can pitch a few innings every 3 to 4 days.

And as long as the Twins plan on starting Archer, bringing back Ober they way they have always pitched him and and employing Bundy they need a pitchers that can go multiple innings or a manager willing to let pitchers go multiple innings.

You are correct.  

My post was replying to the traditional long reliever role being discussed. That guy who sits and waits for starters to blow up, so he can eat low leverage innings to preserve the other bullpen arms. There is no room for that guy anymore because of exactly what you are talking about. 

Now keep in mind, I don't like talking in terms of traditional pitching staff roles like Starter, Long Relief, Middle, Set Up and Closer but have to in order to make the conversation universal. I try to look at them all as pitchers. It's just a matter of how many innings can they throw. I don't care much for roles or designations. 

You are correct, you have to increase the innings thrown by the entire bullpen. The conversation has become trying to place a modern bullpen into traditional boxes that don't really apply anymore.

Set up guys could be classified as long relievers if you have to throw them into a box because throwing one inning at a time doesn't cut it. 

If starters are going to average under 5 innings per start when they used to average 6 in the traditional sense. That's 162 plus more innings that the bullpen has to cover. If you have to cover 162 more innings, teams can't afford to have bullpen roster spots just sitting there waiting for low leverage to get in to the game. Every member of that bullpen has to be able to step up in a tight game and perform.  

 

Having 7 starters (Traditional Designation) on a staff is OK. You can run 5 through a rotation and the other two can be long relievers if you have to place them in that traditional box. However, they must be able to perform in a tight game when they enter. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree on point 1 in that a continuous pipeline is difficult or nearly impossible.  However, Chpettit's characterization was still correct in that there will likely be a gap and that's a detriment to contending.  Therefore, the question IMO is how is this addressed.  Do you trade for Montas and fill the gap or do you sign a big free agent.  Montas gives you a better shot this year.  A big free agent gives you a much better scenario for several years because they could sign a Musgrove or Rodon and keep the Kirilloff / Miranda / Winder type players it will take to get them.

As to would Musgrove sign here .... There is a constant barrage of people who are adamant that player X will come here if the twins offer is the highest compensation so the premise they won't come because the twins will take them out earlier is a convenient argument.  Taking them out earlier protects them from injury and most pitchers will perform better when the opposing team sees them less times through the order.  If I was an agent, I would be advising my client that's a good thing for their career.

On the 3rd point, I think that's another convenient argument.  Did Boston Fans quit coming when they traded Betts, Cardinals fans when they traded Pujlos, Washington fans when they let Harper walk, and on and on.  Fans come when the team has a good product.  Yes, it would be beneficial to do something but most of the moves promoted here will be detrimental long-term and therefore detrimental to the gate receipts at target field.  

I haven't been for making a trade for a Montas or Castillo and still not, but I think it could be done without gutting the prospects.

As for signing a top flight starter, I don't think the Twins are going to spend that kind of money, because with their pitching philosophy it doesn't make sense to pay a starter tons of money if they aren't going to ask the pitcher to give them the extra innings/out/pitches they are not getting from the young guys or Bundy and Archer's of the world. Why pay a guy 20 million (plus) to pitch the way the Twins pitch (I am not complaining here on their philosophy just pointing it out). I don't know if having pitchers go all out with generally high pitch counts protects them from injury, I don't know it doesn't either, but if I was a pitcher I would want to go to a winning team that lets me pitch, that is just me though.

As for the third paragraph maybe I didn't explain it well, it had nothing to do with trading away talent or letting somebody walk, it had to do with this FO doing little to nothing in 19 or 20 to try to push them over the top, then crapped the bed in 21 and then letting a first place team in 22 to piss away the division lead (if they don't do something to improve the team and that happens).

Good luck on selling the fans that the plan wasn't to actually win for the last 4 years, but hey going forward we are going to. And I agree some of the moves promoted here are crazy ridiculous

[insagt1]

On 7/15/2022 at 1:54 PM, USAFChief said:

Well no, they're not going to have five aces. But that's not the point...they need the starters they have to pitch better than they have the past couple weeks. A long reliever does nothing to fix that.

Last night they used Megill, Smith, Cotton and Gordon. Inconsequential. 

I'd rather not tie up a pen spot on a guy who's only job is to pitch when it doesn't matter. At the very least, as a I said, it's way low on my priority list. 

Does anyone carry a dedicated "long guy" any more?

Actually thats pretty funny. Most pitching staffs today just carry pitchers who can go between 1 and 3 innings. The concept of starter, middle relief set up and closer is long gone.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Most pitching staffs today just carry pitchers who can go between 1 and 3 innings.

Source?

[Number3]

This over analysis of everything amazes me. The vicarious GMs rule. Fact is the Twins, once again do not have as good of an organization as the top teams. That means players and management combined. Who should be brought up and who should be sent down and who should be trade bait all have the same result. Only chance to be in the playoffs is win the Central. Luckily they are in the right division and have just enough talent to do it but if they drop the 2 to the Tigers starting tomorrow forget it. You heard it here first.