Can the Twins right the ship?

[cHawk]

Our Minnesota Twins have gone 1-4 in their last 5 games. 3 of those 4 losses have been the fault of the pitching staff. Wes Johnson leaving abruptly may have something to do with it.

The Twins currently sit at 48-41 and 1st Place in the AL Central. Therefore, they have a chance to win the division and make the playoffs. However, they need to break out of their funk if that is going to happen.

Do you think the Twins can right the ship? Why or why not?

[insagt1]

They won't accomplish much based on the current pitching staff. They played a very lacklustre game last night. Once they fell behind, they just sort of closed up shop. To make the playoffs they will have to win the division. Since their competition is also just stumbling along, they could still win the division. But they can't compete with 'the big boys' and an early exit is probable,..again.

Also, some of their top hitters are not having great seasons. That is a continuing problem. Buxton has become an all or nothing hitter and over long stretches, it has been mostly nothing. Correa is slumping. Kepler and Polanco are up and down. Jeffers has been a huge disappointment. Celestino had a good first month but since then he is the hitter he was last year. And so it goes. the team is seriously flawed but have benefitted from a weak division.

Right the ship? Only if some changes are made and key players start to contribute again.

[Mortimerkenny21]

They're going to have to right it soon! We really need a win today, and go 3 of 4 or a sweep of the White Sox! Everyone on the site knows what we need is pitching, especially relief pitching help. It's pretty much all anyone talks about on here. But also can't have an offense that is so streaky! I feel like we're teetering on a line of complete disaster or pull it together and get pitching help to start winning games on the regular again.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins are currently 4th in the AL by record. 3rd in the AL in runs scored, 5th in the AL in runs allowed.

5 games blip with 72 remaining, there’s no need to panic.

a couple good bullpen pieces and some health will make this a very competitive team in the post season.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have some decent balance this year between young players and experienced vets. They do need to add a couple of good arms to the bullpen, but I'm liking this team for more consistency and winning 85-90 games this year.

[SanoMustGo]

Unless the pitching gets fixed, not seeing anything more than .500 by the end of the season.  Also, this team is not a real contender, so I would hold off trading any prospects for rentals.  This team has to make it as constructed or on to next season.

[SanoMustGo]

On 7/14/2022 at 9:01 AM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The Twins are currently 4th in the AL by record. 3rd in the AL in runs scored, 5th in the AL in runs allowed.

5 games blip with 72 remaining, there’s no need to panic.

a couple good bullpen pieces and some health will make this a very competitive team in the post season.

Not a 5 game blip.  Is a 48 game run of 22-26.  The bullpen has been bad for quite some time, and now we are seeing the SP start to fail.  I don't believe 2 BP arms is remotely close to enough.  The only starter I trust is Ryan and Maybe Ober(if he can ever stay healthy).  The rest is just fodder in my book.  Just watch how poorly Gray pitches the remainder of the season.  They are also dropping in the pitching stats.  Now 13th in MLB ERA and dropping quick.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Winning 85-90 games feels about right for this level of talent. We're short in all 3 areas - we need 1 starter who can pitch #1 or #2, 2-3 bullpen pieces that can pitch in late inning, high leverage situations, and 1-2 middle of the order bats. The only one we can possibly fill in internally is the bats if we can get middle of the order performance from 2 of Kirilloff, Miranda, and dare I speak it our loud, Sano. There may be starter help on the way in Winder and others, but not for this year. There's no way we can trade for all that we need without gutting the farm and/or the young players on the MLB roster. 

So what do we do? I vote for trading for a reliever or two as long as we trade either prospects 15 or lower or a guy like Urshela. Otherwise, let's run it out. This team is being built for next year. let's not sacrifice that for the fools gold of this year.  88 wins might get us the division,. some playoff experience and help position us for next year. I'd be happy with that.  

[SwainZag]

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Winning 85-90 games feels about right for this level of talent. We're short in all 3 areas - we need 1 starter who can pitch #1 or #2, 2-3 bullpen pieces that can pitch in late inning, high leverage situations, and 1-2 middle of the order bats. The only one we can possibly fill in internally is the bats if we can get middle of the order performance from 2 of Kirilloff, Miranda, and dare I speak it our loud, Sano. There may be starter help on the way in Winder and others, but not for this year. There's no way we can trade for all that we need without gutting the farm and/or the young players on the MLB roster. 

So what do we do? I vote for trading for a reliever or two as long as we trade either prospects 15 or lower or a guy like Urshela. Otherwise, let's run it out. This team is being built for next year. let's not sacrifice that for the fools gold of this year.  88 wins might get us the division,. some playoff experience and help position us for next year. I'd be happy with that.  

This is very reasonable.  I do think 90 wins is still doable, but 85-88 is probably the most realistic.  Will it be enough to win the division, I guess only time will tell.  I hope they are buyers at the deadline, and buy players who have at least 2 years on their current deals.  There are just so many young players adjusting to the major leagues on this squad, 10 out of the current 25 man roster are 1st or 2nd year players.  I think the future is bright with this team, but small bumps in the road like this last stretch were probably to be expected, especially when your stars are slumping.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Winning 85-90 games feels about right for this level of talent. We're short in all 3 areas - we need 1 starter who can pitch #1 or #2, 2-3 bullpen pieces that can pitch in late inning, high leverage situations, and 1-2 middle of the order bats. The only one we can possibly fill in internally is the bats if we can get middle of the order performance from 2 of Kirilloff, Miranda, and dare I speak it our loud, Sano. There may be starter help on the way in Winder and others, but not for this year. There's no way we can trade for all that we need without gutting the farm and/or the young players on the MLB roster. 

So what do we do? I vote for trading for a reliever or two as long as we trade either prospects 15 or lower or a guy like Urshela. Otherwise, let's run it out. This team is being built for next year. let's not sacrifice that for the fools gold of this year.  88 wins might get us the division,. some playoff experience and help position us for next year. I'd be happy with that.  

I'm starting to lean this way, too. It feels like such a waste of Correa, though. I think they could afford him on a 7 year deal, but I don't see it happening and it feels unsporting to not at least take a Braves approach to the deadline and bring in a few pieces in the pen and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle come October.

I'm still confused as to why Kepler hits where he does in the lineup. I like Kepler and think he's a starter on a championship caliber team, but not in the 4 hole. Hit him 7th where he belongs. Arraez, Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kirilloff, and Miranda would be the top 6 in my lineup (against righties at least) in some order. Kepler, Urshella, Gordon, the catchers, Celestino, and Garlick can hit in the 7-9 holes when they start.

Biggest concern to me is that the part of the starting pitcher pipeline that was supposed to be ready this year looks like it's going to produce Winder only. Now that's not terrible if Ryan can stabilize as a #2 type starter, Winder as a #3 type and Ober as a #4 or 5, but Sand, Balazovic, Enlow, Canterino, and Strotman are showing why people say you need 10 pitching prospects to get a couple major leaguers. If this wave produces Ryan, Winder, Ober in the rotation, and Duran, Jax, and dare I dream on Canterino in the pen it's certainly a nice outcome. Varland is a wildcard for me. But they're going to have to invest in some better arms than they like to for the next couple years while they hope Hajjar, Povich, SWR, and Henriquez can develop and reinforce them. They're in a tough spot as the pipeline sputters and they're going to have to adjust some plans and I think that starts over the next few weeks. Stick with building through the pipeline or sacrifice some prospects for some guys with a little control to bridge to the prospects again?

[Rosterman]

Who can they add to the rotation. Or the bullpen? Remember, for every arm added, one must go.

And NOT just to the minors, as an added arm would also mean freeing up a 40-man roster spot.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

So what do we do? I vote for trading for a reliever or two as long as we trade either prospects 15 or lower or a guy like Urshela. Otherwise, let's run it out. This team is being built for next year. let's not sacrifice that for the fools gold of this year.  88 wins might get us the division,. some playoff experience and help position us for next year. I'd be happy with that.  

Why would a rental RP cost more than that and if the Twins are looking for a controllable relief pitcher he will cost more but still shouldn't cost anybody in the top 10 (unless of course people are talking about Bednar and in that case will probably cost a top 3-5 guy and more)

The idea that the Twins are built for the future and not this year and thus shouldn't trade some prospect capital to compete  (or compete better)for a title this year (while in first place for basically the whole season this far) is crazy talk. Nothing is guaranteed in the future, absolutely nothing. With that said there is not need to blow up the farm but trading a couple and clearing up some 40 man decisions for next year can be done without sacrificing any of the future. Would trading a Sands, Strotman, Cavaco, Sabato Raya, Festa, or even Steer or Wallner (I am not trading either for a short term RP) really change the the look of the Twins prospects?

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think you may have misinterpreted my post. I'm actually fine with trading any of the names mentioned in your post although I would like to keep Steer if we can unless he's the top end of a package for a starter. What I don't want to do is trade any of the graduated prospects - Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino - or one of our 10-15 best prospects for a series of rental or even controllable relievers or a mid level starter. I would give up quality to  trade for Castillo and then it would have to be Larnach or Steer. I don't want to blow up the progress made this year in lengthening the lineup in the hope that a Montas plus high end reliever outcome would get us a few more wins. This team has made real progress this year. I know we won't have Correa next year, but I still think the real contention window opens next year. I actually think we're on the same page. 

That said, speculation is always fun. I would like to trade with the Cubs for Robertson and Givens, or with the Orioles for Lopez and Tate or Perez.  I'd be willing to give up one prospect in the 10-20 range (Enlow, Henriguez, Sands, Festa) plus someone farther down the list and an A ball guy or two. The Orioles need a 3B so maybe they would take just Urshela and a 10-20 prospect and throw in a 20-30 prospect of their own. The only other trade I would consider would be for someone like Luis Castillo or Pablo Lopez and then I would be willing to part with a top 10 non-pitching prospect (Steer, Rodriguez, Wallner), plus 2 others outside the top 20. Let's run with the lineup as is, add RP unless we can get an acceptable deal for Castillo or P Lopez, and play it out. 

  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, SanoMustGo said:

Not a 5 game blip.  Is a 48 game run of 22-26.  The bullpen has been bad for quite some time, and now we are seeing the SP start to fail.  I don't believe 2 BP arms is remotely close to enough.  The only starter I trust is Ryan and Maybe Ober(if he can ever stay healthy).  The rest is just fodder in my book.  Just watch how poorly Gray pitches the remainder of the season.  They are also dropping in the pitching stats.  Now 13th in MLB ERA and dropping quick.

In the 42 games prior they were 27 and 16. Every team has ups and downs and streaks. Every team has long stretches of .500 ball.

there’s 71 games left, some bullpen reinforcements will take this team a long ways (especially a long man that can soak up innings on nights like last night)

Edited July 15, 2022 by Richie the Rally Goat
Corrected the loss column

[ICTwin25]

1 hour ago, SanoMustGo said:

Unless the pitching gets fixed, not seeing anything more than .500 by the end of the season.  Also, this team is not a real contender, so I would hold off trading any prospects for rentals.  This team has to make it as constructed or on to next season.

This is where I'm at too. Since being 27-16 they have gone 22-26 in their last 48 games. The starters have looked awful since Wes left and the bullpen is still a group that you cannot trust. You thrown in Buxton going 6-52 in his last 13 games and this team desperately needs the All Star Break to re-evaluate. I'm not a big Rocco guy so unless some serious moves are made, I think this team may end up finishing below .500. Really hope I'm wrong

[In My La Z boy]

55 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why would a rental RP cost more than that and if the Twins are looking for a controllable relief pitcher he will cost more but still shouldn't cost anybody in the top 10 (unless of course people are talking about Bednar and in that case will probably cost a top 3-5 guy and more)

The idea that the Twins are built for the future and not this year and thus shouldn't trade some prospect capital to compete  (or compete better)for a title this year (while in first place for basically the whole season this far) is crazy talk. Nothing is guaranteed in the future, absolutely nothing. With that said there is not need to blow up the farm but trading a couple and clearing up some 40 man decisions for next year can be done without sacrificing any of the future. Would trading a Sands, Strotman, Cavaco, Sabato Raya, Festa, or even Steer or Wallner (I am not trading either for a short term RP) really change the the look of the Twins prospects?

Agree with this. Balazovic is a perfect example. Trade him 2 years ago and you would have thought "are we crazy?".

There are no guarantees in the minors. What we do know right now is this. This division is winnable. And winning the division gives us a shot. I'd take my chances, and try to add some quality arms to this team.

[USAFChief]

28 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

In the 42 games prior they were 27 and 15. Every team has ups and downs and streaks. Every team has long stretches of .500 ball.

there’s 71 games left, some bullpen reinforcements will take this team a long ways (especially a long man that can soak up innings on nights like last night)

*27-16. 

Ups and downs, sure, but I don't think any of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, or Mets have had "long stretches of .500 ball." 

I agree they need reinforcements, but a "long reliever" is about last on my needs list. Someone to "soak up innings" when they're down 6-1 in the 4th doesn't make any difference. What they need are pitchers who prevent that in the first place and a bullpen that protects leads when they do.

[bean5302]

26 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

In the 42 games prior they were 27 and 15. Every team has ups and downs and streaks. Every team has long stretches of .500 ball.

there’s 71 games left, some bullpen reinforcements will take this team a long ways (especially a long man that can soak up innings on nights like last night)

Long stretches? It's been nearly 2 months since the Twins were at a cumulative .500 rate. Good teams generally don't play under .500 for 50 straight games.

[SwainZag]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Long stretches? It's been nearly 2 months since the Twins were at a cumulative .500 rate. Good teams generally don't play under .500 for 50 straight games.

Before this 2-5 stretch they were playing at .500 ball for the previous 40 games or so.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

*27-16. 

Ups and downs, sure, but I don't think any of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, or Mets have had "long stretches of .500 ball." 

I agree they need reinforcements, but a "long reliever" is about last on my needs list. Someone to "soak up innings" when they're down 6-1 in the 4th doesn't make any difference. What they need are pitchers who prevent that in the first place and a bullpen that protects leads when they do.

Thanks for correcting my error, 

agreed on the needs for Starters that prevent blow ups, but you will never have a rotation of 5 aces. It can’t happen (at least not with the Twins). You can reduce blow ups and you can mitigate the strain on the bullpen by having 1 pitcher to close out that game rather than emptying out the bullpen with 4 guys. That keeps better relievers available for when it matters.

[USAFChief]

15 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Thanks for correcting my error, 

agreed on the needs for Starters that prevent blow ups, but you will never have a rotation of 5 aces. It can’t happen (at least not with the Twins). You can reduce blow ups and you can mitigate the strain on the bullpen by having 1 pitcher to close out that game rather than emptying out the bullpen with 4 guys. That keeps better relievers available for when it matters.

Well no, they're not going to have five aces. But that's not the point...they need the starters they have to pitch better than they have the past couple weeks. A long reliever does nothing to fix that.

Last night they used Megill, Smith, Cotton and Gordon. Inconsequential. 

I'd rather not tie up a pen spot on a guy who's only job is to pitch when it doesn't matter. At the very least, as a I said, it's way low on my priority list. 

Does anyone carry a dedicated "long guy" any more?

[TwinsDr2021]

43 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

*27-16. 

Ups and downs, sure, but I don't think any of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, or Mets have had "long stretches of .500 ball." 

I agree they need reinforcements, but a "long reliever" is about last on my needs list. Someone to "soak up innings" when they're down 6-1 in the 4th doesn't make any difference. What they need are pitchers who prevent that in the first place and a bullpen that protects leads when they do.

Long relievers, isn't the rotation full of long relievers? Being sarcastic, kind of, sort of, maybe, not really?

[USAFChief]

49 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Before this 2-5 stretch they were playing at .500 ball for the previous 40 games or so.

A bit of a nitpick...but no. They havent.

Since reaching 27-16, the Twins haven't again been 11 games over .500. They've been back to 10 games over four times, including as recently as July 5th before the most recent 2-5.

But they haven't matched that high water mark of 11 game over. So they actually didn't "play at .500 ball for the previous 40 games or so."

 

[SanoMustGo]

49 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Before this 2-5 stretch they were playing at .500 ball for the previous 40 games or so.

still not good enough

[SanoMustGo]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

In the 42 games prior they were 27 and 16. Every team has ups and downs and streaks. Every team has long stretches of .500 ball.

there’s 71 games left, some bullpen reinforcements will take this team a long ways (especially a long man that can soak up innings on nights like last night)

Not really good teams. and what we are seeing is a regression of the pitching staff.  And it's getting worse, not better.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

26 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Well no, they're not going to have five aces. But that's not the point...they need the starters they have to pitch better than they have the past couple weeks. A long reliever does nothing to fix that.

Last night they used Megill, Smith, Cotton and Gordon. Inconsequential. 

I'd rather not tie up a pen spot on a guy who's only job is to pitch when it doesn't matter. At the very least, as a I said, it's way low on my priority list. 

Does anyone carry a dedicated "long guy" any more?

Don’t they currently have 4 guys dedicated to when it doesn’t matter?

[Aggies7]

Pitching has won in baseball for 150 years and right now we have none. Ryan is inconsistent as a rookie will be. Gray has fallen off the face of the earth. Smeltzer was a nice story ala dobnak but has also since dropped off. Winder is an unknown. Everyone else, meh. The bullpen is a bunch of nothingness outside of duran. The twins would be decided underdogs against any other American League playoff contender (and possibly even some outside the playoff picture).

And then there’s this:

The twins are top 5 in the AL in many offensive categories, but they do not get the big hits when needed. And everyone on the planet knows those situations win playoff games. So the two biggest things that win you playoff games, pitching and situation hitting, the twins do not do well. This is almost certainly another playoff sweep in the making. Chicago would do us all a favor by getting hot and passing us by 

[Craig Arko]

Trade the entire 26 man roster for prospects.

[KirbyDome89]

What ship are they righting exactly? Their high water mark had them on pace for 100+ wins. That wasn't sustainable, even in their awful division. This team has warts, and I'm not excusing some of them, but I don't think we should be all that surprised they've hovered around .500 for the last 2 months.  

[SanoMustGo]

I never thought this was a 100 win team.  Right now it's an 86-87 win pace, but as the club continues to tread water(at best, that number continues to drop.  I would be VERY pleased if they could play .500 ball the remainder of the season.