Dual Mock Draft

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The latest mock featured here is a dual mock draft done by Jamie Cameron and me. We alternated back and forth of the Top 30 selections on this upcoming weekend's draft.

Note: We completed this mock draft about week ago and would probably do it differently today.

1.) Orioles - Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan (GA) HS - I’m not going to overthink or overplay this if I’m the Orioles I’m taking the best prospect and the most exciting prospect. They could get creative, certainly, with their almost-$17 million-bonus pool and a bevy of early picks (1, 33, 42, 67, 81), but they’d have to be absolutely positive that they could push the guys they want to them and I think there’s too much risk in that. (JN)

2.) Diamondbacks - Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater (OK) HS - It looks likely to be between whoever falls here out of Jones and Holliday. Holliday is widely considered to have one of the best swings in the draft and has had an exceptional spring. If it’s not Holliday, the Diamondbacks might consider one of the other elite high school bats. (JC)

3.) Rangers - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech - I think the Rangers would prefer to take Holliday and are really hoping the Orioles cut a deal and Jones drops to second, leaving Holliday in their laps, but after t,hat I have to go the college route. You have to go all the way back to 2003 (John Danks) to find the Rangers taking a prep player in the Top 10, which shows a clear preference in taking a college player. (JN)

4.) Pirates - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly - Lee has an increasing range, even reaching the Twins at eight in a recent mock draft. Lee’s hit tool represents one of surest things in this draft class, and possible savings over the prep bats that the Pirates might be interested in. (JC)

5.) Nationals - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy - Personally, I’d love to see the Nationals go with Berry here, which guarantees one of the Twins top few assumed choices falls to eight, but for the sake of this exercise and that some people absolutely rave about Green, this is the direction I’m going. (JN)

6.) Marlins - Temarr Johnson, SS, Mays HS, Atlanta - Maybe the best pure hitter in the entire draft class. Number six is probably the floor for Johnson. This would be an amazing get for the Marlins here. (JC)

7.) Cubs - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC  - I think the Cubs draft board and the Twins draft board probably look pretty similar in that they’d be elated to take either Johnson or Collier (or Green, if he happens to slide).

8.) Twins - Jacob Berry, CI, LSU - I have to admit I don’t love this pick. I’m married to the hope of a top seven talent falling to the Twins at eight. With most mock drafts and big boards relying on consensus talent, we don’t have a ton of information about how the Twins view those top seven players. Berry, Neto, and Cross have been the college hitters most heavily linked to the Twins. While Berry is a little positionless, a switch-hitter with plus hit and plus power is too good to pass up here. (JC)

9.) Royals - Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (MI) HS - This marks the fourth straight year the Royals have had a Top 10 pick. They’ve hit three of the four demographics (just not college pitcher), so it’s possible they round it out with Connor Prielipp. Porter is the top healthy prep pitcher and has been frequently connected to Kansas City. (JN)

10.) Rockies - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech - The Rockies have been primarily linked to college bats. In this scenario, Gavin Cross is a great option. Likely a corner outfielder long-term, he has put up elite exit velocities all spring. (JC)

11.) Mets - Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama - The Mets will pick again soon and I’ve long thought they’d get a pitcher with one and a hitter with the other. With the next two teams more likely to select a pitcher and many hitters still left, I went the pitcher route. (JN)

12.) Tigers - Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas - The teens are where things will get even less predictable. Crawford (son of Carl) has been moving up boards recently. Predictably, Crawford is an elite runner with a solid hit tool and projectable power. (JC)

13.) Angels - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt/Tri-City (Frontier League) - Rocker is going to go in the first round and maybe this is too early, but the Angels need to get competitive in a hurry and Rocker could help the major league team considerably sooner than a swing-for-the-fence high school pitcher. (JN)

14.) Mets - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech - The Mets are in a unique position with two top fifteen picks. Jung has fallen a little due to fading a little at the end of the season and being a defensive tweener. Zoom out and focus on his .468 OBP and 20% BB% throughout his collegiate career and there’s plenty to be excited by. (JC)

15.) Padres - Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford (GA) HS - Good value on the top prep pitcher before he went down with an elbow injury. The Padres have never been afraid to take a risk. (JN)

16.) Guardians - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell - It looks less and less likely Neto will make it this far. Recent mock drafts have him going as high as seven to the Cubs. A good defender with a plus arm and a good offensive skill set is too good to pass up here. (JC)

17.) Phillies - Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage (FL) HS - Barriera shut it down after his regular season to prepare for the draft and it hasn’t hurt his draft stock at all. He may be in play to be the first high school pitcher selected. (JN)

18.) Reds - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona - There’s some pretty good steam for Susac to Cincinnati. Susac has put up good number in a power five conference for two consecutive seasons. He projects for solid defense, good power, and a low on-base percentage. (JC)

19.) A’s - Dylan Beavers, OF, California - The A’s are sticking close to home, opting for a California-grown player in the first round for the third straight year. (JN)

20.) Braves - Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State - We’re getting into educated guesses here (maybe just guesses). The Braves have been linked to a number of college pitchers. Hjerpe has two secondary offerings that may develop into excellent pitches. That may offset his mediocre fastball. (JC)

21.) Mariners - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison - A rough early season dimmed a once very bright chance that DeLauter went off the board in the Top 10. Mariners have a track record of taking college hitters and this could be a great value. (JN)

22.) Cardinals - Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall Heath HS (Texas) - This is a little lower than Williams is being taken in most mocks (10-15 range). Williams has excellent tools but will need time to develop. He’s just 5’8”, but has drawn comparisons to Alex Bregman. (JC)

23.) Blue Jays - Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee - The Blue Jays take a college bat here. (JN)

24.) Red Sox - Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida - The Red Sox have gone hard after good hit tools recently (Mayer, Casas). Here they grab one of the better outfielders in college baseball. (JC)

25.) Yankees - Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen (NV) HS - There isn’t any steam here, but if Snelling were to fall, the Yankees seem like a team that would meet higher demands. (JN)

26.) White Sox - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga - There are a ton of interesting arms in this range in the first round. The White Sox like power arms. Hughes has the potential to be a really good one. (JC)

27.) Brewers - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma - The Brewers seem most likely to go with a college pitcher. Horton helped him immensely on the biggest stage at the College World Series. (JN)

28.) Astros - Blake Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee - Tidwell has some of the best stuff of any college pitcher in the draft but was limited this season by a shoulder injury. He’s one of the first-round prospects with the widest selection ranges. (JC)

29.) Rays - Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy - The Rays say “no so fast” to the teams hoping the highly-ranked prep would fall to them and they could use some savings. The Rays love arms and they got a good one. (JN)

30.) Giants - Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee - Other teams won’t like playing against Gilbert. Opposing fans won’t like Gilbert. The Stillwater native had one of the best seasons of any college hitter and has been linked as high as eighth overall with the Twins. (JC)

What do you think of our mock draft of the first round? Who will get more selections correct? Which picks are most wrong? Discuss in the COMMENTS today. 

 

 

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[SteelDodo]

Great draft! I love all the draft-related content on the site this year. Thanks for all the work!

Regarding this particular draft, I think there is probably a better than 50% chance that one of the big 7 fall, though I have no idea which one or which team will pull the surprise.  If one of the 7 is available, that should be the pick. Don't think, just make the pick. If the board falls like this though, I think I'm on the Gavin Cross train. He probably will not ever be a superstar, but based on the reports I've read, he strikes me as someone who has a very high likelihood of making it to the majors and having a long career. I heard someone say he has Larnach's bat with Kepler's defense, though I have no idea if that is accurate. If true though, that is very solid value at the eighth pick. No need to get cute.

[ashbury]

Since you went to all the trouble to map this out to 30 picks, I'm curious what would have been the result to go a few picks further and reach the Twins' second round choice.  They haven't forfeited it, have they?

[Jamie Cameron]

  On 7/13/2022 at 1:49 AM, ashbury said:

Since you went to all the trouble to map this out to 30 picks, I'm curious what would have been the result to go a few picks further and reach the Twins' second round choice.  They haven't forfeited it, have they?

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Twins next picks are:

48 - second round

68 - comp B

114 - fourth round

They forfeited their third round for Correa, I believe. Very hard to predict past about 20 picks. Getting to 50 with any kind of accuracy is impossible lol

[ashbury]

  On 7/13/2022 at 2:52 AM, Jamie Cameron said:

Very hard to predict past about 20 picks.

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Concur, which is why I was a little surprised you even went to 30.

[Jamie Cameron]

  On 7/13/2022 at 3:01 AM, ashbury said:

Concur, which is why I was a little surprised you even went to 30.

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We are foolish and suckers for punishment ?

[ashbury]

  On 7/13/2022 at 3:04 AM, Jamie Cameron said:

We are foolish and suckers for punishment ?

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But all things in moderation, amirite?

[terrydactyls]

Great selection!  Another big bat with no position.  Get creative for a change.

[Dman]

That could end up being a pretty accurate top 10 of the draft.  Berry has pretty much been included in the top 8 of most mocks since the beginning of the year so would not be surprised if the Twins took him there.  Still hoping and or thinking the Marlins might grab him at number 6.  He is a switch hitter with power and a fast mover which is just what Miami needs.  Seems like an almost perfect value and need to me but who knows what they think.  The Twins have a glut at 1st base and DH so not really a need and no need for a fast mover to one of those positions either.  It isn't the best fit for the Twins IMO but he still might be the best all around bat available at 8.  If you believe in best available and that hit tool is the most important tool then Berry might be it.

Cross would still be in the mix there as well since he can play defense so might be the likely play for Minnesota.  I still think Neto has an outside chance.  I know his potential lack of power will likely not meet the Twins model but a 6% K rate has to perk their ears up as contact is so key for success and the lower the K rate the better the odds for a higher batting average.  He also should be able to stick at short a position of need in the system. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Jett Williams who is rising up boards.  He might take longer to get there but he would stack in nicely with the next big wave of hitters the Twins have coming up.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

No big hitter w/o a position please.  We have too many of those already.

[Otaknam]

Wonder if the Twins would consider  Kumar Rocker with the eighth  pick. He was considered a top 3 candidate last year and has been successful in independent ball this year. If he’s healthy he could move quickly as a starting pitcher. I think he’s represented by scotched earth agent Scott Boras, but I don’t think the FO would pass on Rocker if that’s who they want because of the agent. Lord knows we need to upgrade starting pitching and Rocker could be a top of the rotation guy.

[blairpaul715]

My 5 choices in order, based on who I think could be available.

1. Termarr Johnson-unlikely to be available

2. Cam Collier-fingers crossed he is there and Twins pick him.

3. Kevin Parada-Twins need an offensive catcher. But hear his arm isn't strong. May have to move from C?

4. Zach Neto-Should be available

5. Kumar Rocker-I'd take him. 

I'm hoping they dont take Berry.