Checking back in with a former standout Twins reliever

[USAFChief]

  On 7/14/2022 at 3:48 PM, chpettit19 said:

2.... You're on here constantly complaining about starters not going deep into games and he made it into the 6th in 2 of his 4 injury free games. Weird that you don't think that's an improvement over the guys you're currently complaining about not doing that.

5. What does "treating the bullpen with respect" look like? 

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Agree to disagree on the rest, but...

1. You'll need to reword this because I'm not a good enough reader to get your point here. 

2. You have me confused with someone else. I most certainly am not "on here constantly complaining about starters not going deep into games." In fact, I've said repeatedly one of the things like about Baldelli is he doesn't "Molitor" and wait until the damage is done before removing his starter. I might have questioned a single instance here or there. But I'm not complaining because they're not trying to squeeze more out of weak starters. Just the opposite.

 

But....that only emphasizes the need for a deep quality bullpen. 

5. Treating the bullpen with respect means adding quality options every chance you get, rather than throwing waiver wire claims at the wall hoping something sticks. Recognizing that bullpens have gotten more and more critical as starters have gotten less and less...particularly for your own team, without a single 200 IP guy and none in sight. Devote some resources. Dont trade your best resource the day prior to your opener.

 

[nicksaviking]

  On 7/14/2022 at 6:12 PM, ashbury said:

Not being prepared, for failure, is something I can maybe figure out a way of forgiving.  You can't plan for every contingency.

Not being prepared, for success?  If they can't pivot from whatever Plan A has been, while opportunity is still there before the trading deadline, I just don't know what to say of this as any kind of excuse.  A pivot doesn't mean draining the farm system totally.  Just embracing opportunity, and redeploying resources.

Running a baseball team involves a whole lot more "known unknowns" than most businesses.  But imagine some kind of normal business, somewhere near the cutting edge technologically, so that planning has to be always a bit provisionally.  R&D has informed Marketing of a major core product release coming in 2023; Marketing has done some groundwork and has prepared Sales for next year.  Suddenly Marketing is informed by R&D, "we've figured it out!  We've harnessed Cold Fusion!  We've squared the circle!  We can go into production TOMORROW.  Though, our competition may figure things out pretty soon too."  If Marketing can't quickly pivot, a lot of business is going to be forfeited.

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I'll wait to judge if they can pivot until after the trade deadline.

I mean, it's still my opinion that the key young guys need to be battle tested before they're really a contending team, but ensuring they get to that postseason battle to take their licks should still be the priority.

[chpettit19]

  On 7/14/2022 at 6:24 PM, USAFChief said:

Agree to disagree on the rest, but...

1. You'll need to reword this because I'm not a good enough reader to get your point here. 

2. You have me confused with someone else. I most certainly am not "on here constantly complaining about starters not going deep into games." In fact, I've said repeatedly one of the things like about Baldelli is he doesn't "Molitor" and wait until the damage is done before removing his starter. I might have questioned a single instance here or there. But I'm not complaining because they're not trying to squeeze more out of weak starters. Just the opposite.

 

But....that only emphasizes the need for a deep quality bullpen. 

5. Treating the bullpen with respect means adding quality options every chance you get, rather than throwing waiver wire claims at the wall hoping something sticks. Recognizing that bullpens have gotten more and more critical as starters have gotten less and less...particularly for your own team, without a single 200 IP guy and none in sight. Devote some resources. Dont trade your best resource the day prior to your opener.

 

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Fair enough on the point 2. I'm getting old and the memory isn't always accurate so I apologize on that one.

As for point 5. My point is that the Twins are doing the same thing other teams with really good pens are doing, but they're not executing it well. Example given:

The Dodgers pen and how they were acquired (listed in order of IP this year):
Brusdar- you know where he came from 
Evan Phillips- claimed off waivers
Kimbrel- trade of major leaguer for major leaguer (AJ Pollock)
Phil Bickford- claimed off waivers
Alex Vesia- Acquired after 4.1 terrible big league innings for Dylan Floro as the Dodgers moved on from a good pen arm
Yency Almonte- signed for 700k as free agent
Daniel Hudson- signed for 7M as free agent
David Price- brought with in the Mookie trade to lower the prospect cost for getting Mookie
Justin Bruihl- Undrafted FA signing in 2017
Reyes Moronta- signed for 1.5M as free agent

Twins paid 7.5 for Colome when include his buyout so they invested just as much resources in him as Dodgers did in their big free agent pen arm Hudson. There's a couple waiver claims in there. They got Vesia when they traded a veteran for prospects (like the Twins did with Alcala and Duran). A couple nothing free agent contracts like the Twins do. The only real diference is the Dodgers being willing/able to take on Kimbrel's bad 16M (and Price's deal previously, but Price was a means to the Mookie end and not a counted on piece of their pen). This is how pens are built by even the big spenders. That's what I'm getting at.

The Twins are doing things the same way as everyone else outside of not bringing in the 1 expensive arm the Yankees and Dodgers types bring in. The Dodgers let their All Star closer walk after the year even. Like the Twins have done with May and Wisler. Now that doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't put more resources in just because everyone else is doing it this way, but teams aren't out there doing things drastically different than the Twins. Pen arms aren't reliable and everyone knows it. It's why pens are built this way.

I get not liking the Rogers deal. I didn't love it. I didn't hate it. It turned out horribly and that sucks. They need to get better at identifying targets (like what they did with Wisler!), and continue to turn out productive pen arms from the system (like Duran, Jax, Alcala, Duffey, Rogers, May). But they're investing resources on the same scale as the industry standard.

[USAFChief]

  On 7/14/2022 at 7:11 PM, chpettit19 said:

Fair enough on the point 2. I'm getting old and the memory isn't always accurate so I apologize on that one.

As for point 5. My point is that the Twins are doing the same thing other teams with really good pens are doing, but they're not executing it well. Example given:

The Dodgers pen and how they were acquired (listed in order of IP this year):
Brusdar- you know where he came from 
Evan Phillips- claimed off waivers
Kimbrel- trade of major leaguer for major leaguer (AJ Pollock)
Phil Bickford- claimed off waivers
Alex Vesia- Acquired after 4.1 terrible big league innings for Dylan Floro as the Dodgers moved on from a good pen arm
Yency Almonte- signed for 700k as free agent
Daniel Hudson- signed for 7M as free agent
David Price- brought with in the Mookie trade to lower the prospect cost for getting Mookie
Justin Bruihl- Undrafted FA signing in 2017
Reyes Moronta- signed for 1.5M as free agent

Twins paid 7.5 for Colome when include his buyout so they invested just as much resources in him as Dodgers did in their big free agent pen arm Hudson. There's a couple waiver claims in there. They got Vesia when they traded a veteran for prospects (like the Twins did with Alcala and Duran). A couple nothing free agent contracts like the Twins do. The only real diference is the Dodgers being willing/able to take on Kimbrel's bad 16M (and Price's deal previously, but Price was a means to the Mookie end and not a counted on piece of their pen). This is how pens are built by even the big spenders. That's what I'm getting at.

The Twins are doing things the same way as everyone else outside of not bringing in the 1 expensive arm the Yankees and Dodgers types bring in. The Dodgers let their All Star closer walk after the year even. Like the Twins have done with May and Wisler. Now that doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't put more resources in just because everyone else is doing it this way, but teams aren't out there doing things drastically different than the Twins. Pen arms aren't reliable and everyone knows it. It's why pens are built this way.

I get not liking the Rogers deal. I didn't love it. I didn't hate it. It turned out horribly and that sucks. They need to get better at identifying targets (like what they did with Wisler!), and continue to turn out productive pen arms from the system (like Duran, Jax, Alcala, Duffey, Rogers, May). But they're investing resources on the same scale as the industry standard.

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You're forgetting some intended Dodger pen pieces, including Blake Trienen, Tommy Kahnle,  and Daniel Hudson. Mitch White probably if not for Buehler's injury.

Your waiver wires aren't there without IL stints to the above.

Teams serious about their pen shouldnt start the season with half or more coming from waiver pickups and MiLB free agents. Or at the least need to be better at picking identifying those guys than we've been.

In any case, as I said at the time...didn't like the Rogers trade, and I don't think it's just an unfortunate accident that it's turned out badly so far. 

I bet if you could get Falvine to discuss privately they'd admit it was a mistake. 

 

[chpettit19]

  On 7/14/2022 at 7:28 PM, USAFChief said:

You're forgetting some intended Dodger pen pieces, including Blake Trienen, Tommy Kahnle,  and Daniel Hudson. Mitch White probably if not for Buehler's injury.

Your waiver wires aren't there without IL stints to the above.

Teams serious about their pen don't start the season with half or more coming from waiver pickups and MiLB free agents.

In any case, as I said at the time...didn't like the Rogers trade, and I don't think it's just an unfortunate accident that it's turned out badly so far. 

I bet if you could get Falvine to discuss privately they'd admit it was a mistake. 

 

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Trienen was a good sized deal, that's true. Kahnle is a 2.5M a year guy who was signed last year while he was hurt and turned around and got hurt again this year. Joe Smith was signed for 2.5M this year. Hudson was on my list and I pointed out the Twins invested more in Colome than the Dodgers did in him. Mitch White was drafted by them and has been a mediocre reliever for 2 years now. I'm pretty sure you can find someone on the Twins to fit that description. 

So it's being able to move their Pollock contract for Kimbrel's contract and signing Trienen. The rest are all the same types of investments as the Twins make. Twins pen to start the year Romero and Cotton as the only 2 waiver pickups on it. Dodgers opening day pen had Phillips. So 2 vs 1. 

[ashbury]

  On 7/14/2022 at 7:51 PM, chpettit19 said:

Twins pen to start the year Romero and Cotton as the only 2 waiver pickups on it. Dodgers opening day pen had Phillips. So 2 vs 1. 

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Yabbut... even there, it's not quite apples-to-apples.  Our two guys were picked up over the winter; it was the FO's guess/gamble that their coaching staff would apply their special sauce, somehow, and then they got to observe performance in spring training.  The Dodgers' guy Phillips was picked up last August and given an extended audition; their FO was operating on a longer working history plus seeing him in actual game conditions, plus of course spring.  IMO that's not a trivial difference in terms of the teams' respective planning process.

The Twins entered the season with a greater degree of ifs and maybes in the pen, and it seemed to be a defined strategy on their part.

[ashbury]

  On 7/14/2022 at 10:07 PM, chpettit19 said:

Get out of here

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I shall.  Congratulations.  This discussion's over.

[Riverbrian]

  On 7/14/2022 at 6:12 PM, ashbury said:

Not being prepared, for failure, is something I can maybe figure out a way of forgiving.  You can't plan for every contingency.

Not being prepared, for success?  If they can't pivot from whatever Plan A has been, while opportunity is still there before the trading deadline, I just don't know what to say of this as any kind of excuse.  A pivot doesn't mean draining the farm system totally.  Just embracing opportunity, and redeploying resources.

Running a baseball team involves a whole lot more "known unknowns" than most businesses.  But imagine some kind of normal business, somewhere near the cutting edge technologically, so that planning has to be always a bit provisionally.  R&D has informed Marketing of a major core product release coming in 2023; Marketing has done some groundwork and has prepared Sales for next year.  Suddenly Marketing is informed by R&D, "we've figured it out!  We've harnessed Cold Fusion!  We've squared the circle!  We can go into production TOMORROW.  Though, our competition may figure things out pretty soon too."  If Marketing can't quickly pivot, a lot of business is going to be forfeited.

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Exactly... You have to be prepared for whatever the cat drags in. Whatever the players do... they do. 

To go into the season with the idea that you are still a year or two off and staying the course no matter what.... well... that would be debilitating hubris. That front office would just be getting in the way.. 

"There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader."