Series Preview: Brewers' Starters Look Vulnerable

[Tom Ciaccio]

Two teams sit atop respective central divisions, both composed of a patchwork of superstars and key role players. With familiar faces and up-and-coming all-stars, it's a fun series for fans to familiarize themselves with players both home and away. 

Few things were nearly unanimous in the pre-season predictions, but among them was which team perched atop the AL Central was selected by nearly everyone to win the division. Appropriately black and white. Stated plainly. The consensus pick: the Chicago White Sox. The halfway point of the 2022 has proven the paradoxical axiom of baseball, which is that despite every metric and system built to hone prediction, there are no truths in this wild and beautiful game. 

---

We've asked Tom Ciaccio, who writes up series previews for our sister site, Brewer Fanatic, to give us a preview of the two-game Brewers series. Meanwhile, we had John Bonnes do the same over on our sister site. If you would like to see that, click here. Despite their differences, these fan bases have at least one thing in common: they both really dislike the respective Chicago-based teams. 

---

Sitting in sole possession of both first place and the only winning record in the division are the Minnesota Twins. Contending against them in a brief two-game series is the team leading the other league’s central division, the Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams have solidified themselves as tough customers built on atypical means. The Brewers strength is run prevention led by a multi-ace rotation, where the Twins are arguably more well-rounded, anchored by elite players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa and supplemented by revitalized talents like Sonny Gray and Chris Archer. 

The two-game interleague matchup often evokes a lower stakes and slightly deflated feeling, but these two teams are charismatic baseball enigmas who are holding fast atop their divisions. While attention normally gravitates toward the titans on the coasts, they should be fixed on the flyovers for this intriguing series. Let’s check out the match-ups.

Tuesday July 12th
Jason Alexander (2-1 4.75 ERA)
Josh Winder (4-2 3.12 ERA)

29-year-old rookie Jason Alexander has had an unorthodox path to the bigs and is now enduring a fittingly wonky beginning of his career. After a decent enough job starting as a fill-in piece for a banged up Brewers rotation he was shifted back to the bullpen. Working in relief has not been a strong spot for Alexander in his brief sample, giving up three earned runs in 2.1 innings over two showings. With Adrian Houser going down with an elbow injury, Alexander will have another chance to show what he can do on the mound.

One patchwork rookie starter deserves another, and addressing the same dearth of seasoned starting pitchers is Josh Winder . Unlike the Brewers, the Twins didn’t start the season from a particularly enviable level of depth. That Winder would end up in the rotation isn’t particularly surprising, but the measure of his success thus far might be. In 40 innings pitched he’s managed a 3.12 ERA, and even with his FIP almost a full point higher (4.09 to be precise), it still can’t be argued that Winder’s sample to this point is an impressive one. 

Wednesday July 13th
Aaron Ashby (2-6 4.52 ERA)
Joe Ryan (6-3 3.09 ERA)

 

After a promising beginning to his 2022 campaign, Aaron Ashby hit a long skid of middling to bad performances before finally notching another win against the Pirates on Friday. Notching a W against the lowly Pirates is a fraught distinction unto itself, and that Ashby still surrendered two runs over five IP in this start doesn’t alleviate concerns surrounding his trajectory.

This all being said, the resume for Ashby gives a lot of reason to believe. Capitalizing on a five pitch repertoire, Ashby has managed an astonishing 10.75 K/9. The issue lies in that when Ashby isn’t fooling hitters, he’s getting hit hard by them. If he’s going to succeed against a savvy hitting Twins team, he’ll need to be strategic, deliberate and economical.

A cliche in the baseball world repeated so enthusiastically that it’s nearly axiom-status is that when the Rays make a trade, the Rays win that trade. It’s still early in his career, but 26-year-old righty Joe Ryan is looking to break that mold. Shipped over to Minnesota with prospect Drew Strotman for Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher, Ryan has put together a very solid rookie campaign. In just under a hundred combined IP, Ryan has authored a 3.35 ERA with a FIP of 3.86, corroborating the potential of nascent excellence. 

 

Players To Watch
Josh Hader : In the event that the Brewers have a late game lead and their feared closer emerges from the pen, it may not spell certain doom for the Twinkies. In Hader-adjusted terms, the All-Star and arguably best closer in baseball has been having a rough go of it. In his latest appearance, Hader gave up two hits and a walk and incurred an earned run against the Pirates in what would ultimately be a successful save. In the series prior to that one, Seiya Suzuki walked off against Hader on an inside-the-park home run. Adding an extra level of mystique to Hader is that there are rumors that the Brewers are at the very least willing to hear offers for the now four-time All-Star.

Keston Hiura : After a promising 2019 rookie campaign, Hiura’s value as a player slipped the following year and disintegrated into unsustainability after that. At the end of his 2021 season, Hiura had an abysmal WOBA of .251, and with negative UZR, it almost felt time to ask if the once promising rookie would ever be able to stay in the bigs. As of late, the sudden utility product has found new value for the Brewers. Moving from second to left field, Hiura has flashed some impressive leather. At the plate, the strikeouts are worse than they’ve ever been, but the OPS+ for 2022 is 127, noteworthy because it’s 22 points above his career average. If Hiura can find his form again, he will be a pivotal difference maker for the Brewers this year and for years to come. 

Luis Arraez : When the Twins extended Buxton and signed Correa, it probably wouldn’t be predicted that by the middle of the 2022 season Twins second basemen Arraez would lead the team in WAR. Not only that, but he’s leading the majors in batting average, adding to the motif that the Twins are unpredictable and, as importantly, extremely fun. Arraez’ crescendo towards excellence doesn’t look like a fluke, and while he’s no stranger to Twins fans, it’s worth appreciating the development of a potential superstar.

Predictions
Assessing the teams as a whole would make things feel a lot more competitive, but the fact that the Twins are hosting the Brewers right as the two biggest question marks in their rotation are set to pitch doesn’t bode well for the Crew. I think the Twins grab at least one win here, but a sweep in the brief series feels perfectly reasonable.

View full article

[John Bonnes]

Considering that Cleveland and the White Sox are playing each other while the Twins face the Brewers, it would be real nice if the Twins could take advantage of the pitching matchups in this series. 

[Rosterman]

I was hoping we would see Chi Chi start!

[DocBauer]

With all due respect and great love for ALL of our TD writers, Tom Ciaccio is impressive! Again, with all due love and respect, any chance we can convert him to Twins fandom and bring him on board? Work on him John! Show him the way! LOL

But seriously, these two games are at home. The offense has being doing their part. Winder has been doing his part, as a long man and as a SP almost perfectly since the year began. Really, for this year and beyond, hasn't he earned a full time spot at this point? The only logical "no" answer would be a solid, more experienced veteran holding place, the rotation fully healthy, and letting him continue to prepare for 2023 and doing what he's been doing. (Ober is going to have a say as well when he's 100%, but that's a different discussion for a different day)

Even with Ryan being a "rookie" and not having a good last couple of games, his numbers are still very good, as the OP stated. He's just due for a good game at home.

I think the Twins are due for a sweep with our offense and the staff just doest implode. (Looking at you bullpen). And then comes the Dirty Sox, but I'll wait to comment after the Brew Crew leave town.

[Tom Ciaccio]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

With all due respect and great love for ALL of our TD writers, Tom Ciaccio is impressive! Again, with all due love and respect, any chance we can convert him to Twins fandom and bring him on board? Work on him John! Show him the way! LOL

But seriously, these two games are at home. The offense has being doing their part. Winder has been doing his part, as a long man and as a SP almost perfectly since the year began. Really, for this year and beyond, hasn't he earned a full time spot at this point? The only logical "no" answer would be a solid, more experienced veteran holding place, the rotation fully healthy, and letting him continue to prepare for 2023 and doing what he's been doing. (Ober is going to have a say as well when he's 100%, but that's a different discussion for a different day)

Even with Ryan being a "rookie" and not having a good last couple of games, his numbers are still very good, as the OP stated. He's just due for a good game at home.

I think the Twins are due for a sweep with our offense and the staff just doest implode. (Looking at you bullpen). And then comes the Dirty Sox, but I'll wait to comment after the Brew Crew leave town.

Hey thank you so much for the kind words! Happy to learn and write about the Twins anytime! 

[Dman]

I have a bit of bad feeling going into this series.  What Tom forgets is that this years Twins team has been great against good pitchers and struggled against lessor pitchers far too often.  These teams have been pretty evenly matched in recent years and with the Twins pen being so vulnerable makes this series far from a slam dunk even though the Brewers are not throwing their best pitchers out there.

It all looks good on paper but will have to wait and see how the Twins perform.  Winning both games would really help with the White Sox coming to town.  With Cleveland and Chicago beating up on each other right now winning these games could be huge.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I have a bit of bad feeling going into this series.  What Tom forgets is that this years Twins team has been great against good pitchers and struggled against lessor pitchers far too often.  These teams have been pretty evenly matched in recent years and with the Twins pen being so vulnerable makes this series far from a slam dunk even though the Brewers are not throwing their best pitchers out there.

It all looks good on paper but will have to wait and see how the Twins perform.  Winning both games would really help with the White Sox coming to town.  With Cleveland and Chicago beating up on each other right now winning these games could be huge.

I was going to say something similar.  Against a team with multiple aces we draw the bottom of the rotation, which probably means the bats will go silent.

Probably we are taking too much away from a few good outings against good pitchers and a few bad outings against worse pitchers, but I still have to wonder.

Is there more focus put on advance scouting for the better pitchers?  Do the worse pitchers pitch to the hitters' weaknesses more and the good pitchers pitch to their own strengths more, which leads the advance scouting to be more effective against good pitchers?  Is it just random luck?

Probably mostly the last one.

[Dman]

38 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I was going to say something similar.  Against a team with multiple aces we draw the bottom of the rotation, which probably means the bats will go silent.

Probably we are taking too much away from a few good outings against good pitchers and a few bad outings against worse pitchers, but I still have to wonder.

Is there more focus put on advance scouting for the better pitchers?  Do the worse pitchers pitch to the hitters' weaknesses more and the good pitchers pitch to their own strengths more, which leads the advance scouting to be more effective against good pitchers?  Is it just random luck?

Probably mostly the last one.

Yeah I am probably over exaggerating the few more memorable failures or success's as you said but still it is the way I feel.  It probably isn't rational but this darn game defies all logic a good portion of the time anyway so yeah you are probably right more than likely just random luck.  I know in some of the games we lost to lessor pitching we hit balls hard they just didn't fall in or or go out.  Sometimes things just don't work out.  At any rate I know not to take a good team like the Brewers for granted.  

I hope the bats are hot and the pitching great but who knows what will happen until they play the game.

[insagt1]

Most may not agree but something is nagging at me. If you look strictly at the stats (and nothing else) is Buxton really another Sano? Buck's career BA is around .240ish which is higher than Sano's but not appreciably so. They both hit HR's and they both strike out a ton. Bucks 'k' total this year has been alarming to me...one of the highest in the AL. Buck is no longer stealing bases, at all. Granted his HR's are usually game deciders, but still he isn't getting on base as much as we would like, is he? Buck's defense is clearly much better than Sano's. Still, I have to wonder why he was selected to the ASG frankly.  He has been kind of an enigma this season. In their secret moments, given how much he has been 'protected' and pampered this season, to keep him in the lineup, I have to wonder if the Twins expect a bit more than a BA in the low .200's with a ton of strikeouts and not able to use his blinding speed to turn walks into doubles.

Make no mistake, he is still a marquee player, but he has gone thru a couple of real bad slumps.  Do we feel he needs to be better 2nd half? Or is everyone satisfied with what he is contributing?  Just wondering, not criticizing, but observing.

 

[Unwinder]

I'm sure this is statistically easy to disprove, but I feel like the quality of opposing starting pitching is almost completely irrelevant to the Twins' success or failure.

I'm off work tomorrow and going to the Ryan game, really hoping to see him return to form.

[Craig Arko]

I guess we don’t want to trade for them, then.

[adjacent]

2 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Most may not agree but something is nagging at me. If you look strictly at the stats (and nothing else) is Buxton really another Sano? Buck's career BA is around .240ish which is higher than Sano's but not appreciably so. They both hit HR's and they both strike out a ton. Bucks 'k' total this year has been alarming to me...one of the highest in the AL. Buck is no longer stealing bases, at all. Granted his HR's are usually game deciders, but still he isn't getting on base as much as we would like, is he? Buck's defense is clearly much better than Sano's. Still, I have to wonder why he was selected to the ASG frankly.  He has been kind of an enigma this season. In their secret moments, given how much he has been 'protected' and pampered this season, to keep him in the lineup, I have to wonder if the Twins expect a bit more than a BA in the low .200's with a ton of strikeouts and not able to use his blinding speed to turn walks into doubles.

Make no mistake, he is still a marquee player, but he has gone thru a couple of real bad slumps.  Do we feel he needs to be better 2nd half? Or is everyone satisfied with what he is contributing?  Just wondering, not criticizing, but observing.

 

Average wise could be. Bu he seems a little better defensively than Sano. Don't you think?

[Dman]

2 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Most may not agree but something is nagging at me. If you look strictly at the stats (and nothing else) is Buxton really another Sano? Buck's career BA is around .240ish which is higher than Sano's but not appreciably so. They both hit HR's and they both strike out a ton. Bucks 'k' total this year has been alarming to me...one of the highest in the AL. Buck is no longer stealing bases, at all. Granted his HR's are usually game deciders, but still he isn't getting on base as much as we would like, is he? Buck's defense is clearly much better than Sano's. Still, I have to wonder why he was selected to the ASG frankly.  He has been kind of an enigma this season. In their secret moments, given how much he has been 'protected' and pampered this season, to keep him in the lineup, I have to wonder if the Twins expect a bit more than a BA in the low .200's with a ton of strikeouts and not able to use his blinding speed to turn walks into doubles.

Make no mistake, he is still a marquee player, but he has gone thru a couple of real bad slumps.  Do we feel he needs to be better 2nd half? Or is everyone satisfied with what he is contributing?  Just wondering, not criticizing, but observing.

 

I don't love the low average but I think you have to remember Buxton has been playing through injury and is still one of the better players in baseball.  I think this Graphic from Gleeman should summarize the value of what Byron brings versus someone like Arraez who has the best batting average in baseball.

 

 

 

[insagt1]

Buxton is certainly an anomoly of sorts. Growing up thru the 50's and 60's, I can't remember ever seeing someone in the ASG with a BA of .215! His value to the team, when healthy, can't be overstated. But it does trouble me that right now he isn't hitting a lick..save the odd HR. His 'd' is unparalleled. But there certainly is room for improvement.

[SanoMustGo]

Brewers starters look vulnerable?  Hmm then, how do the Twins starters look?