Twins Tidbit: Luis Arraez is a Hitting Savant From Any Count

[TwinsData]

Luis Arraez has been named to his first All-Star team, so it seems appropriate to reflect on what makes him such a dynamic hitter. What differentiates him from the rest of the Twins lineup?

 

 

The above chart shows Arraez's on-base percentage (as well as the on-base percentage of his teammates as a group) after combining all the at-bats that had a given count. So for example, his on-base percentage from a 0-0 count is his published on-base percentage (an AL-high 0.420) and his on-base percentage from 1-0 is his on-base percentage for all at-bats that begin with a ball. Here are the things that stand out:

• Luis Arraez is better at getting on base from every count than his teammates. That's not a huge surprise.
• Arraez is better from an 0-1 count (0.333 on-base percentage) than his teammates are from 0-0 (0.312 on-base percentage). In fact, only 5 Twins hitters have higher on-base percentages from 0-0 than Arraez from 0-1 counts.
• Getting to 2 strikes doesn't faze Arraez much. Look at the loss in on-base percentage for his Twins peers in going from 0-1 to 0-2 or 1-1 to 1-2. It's substantial. But not so for Arraez. He loses barely any on-base percentage from taking a second strike. From 0-2 counts, Arraez has an incredible 0.300 on-base percentage. He's more likely to get on base behind 0-2 than are Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda, Ryan Jeffers, and Gary Sanchez from empty counts.
• Falling behind Arraez in the count is a death sentence for pitchers. He has a 0.513 on-base percentage from 1-0 counts and a 0.733 on-base percentage (!) from 2-0 counts.

The hallmark of a great contact hitter is the lack of any clear weakness to exploit.  Because of his ability to handle the bat and trouble pitchers from any count, Arraez clearly has that trait. He's a savant at the plate and now a deserving All-Star.

 

 

 

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[roger]

Very interesting.  Now let's hope like heck the Twins extend him this summer/winter.  Don't care where he is on the field, only that he is in the batter's box four or five times nearly every day.

[mikelink45]

Nice review of his hitting. Your statistics confirm what we think we see

[Trov]

It is nice to see the numbers backing up what the eyes see.  I will always remember in his rookie year pinch hitting after a 0-2 count when the hitter got hurt swinging.  He managed to work a walk.  That is just crazy, coming off the bench, with 0 chance of mistake and he works a walk.  At that point I was sold on him as an on base guy.  This year he seems to be having a little more power.  Maybe not HR power, but getting those doubles. He might develop more power as he ages, similar to Altuve, maybe not as much power, but he could still be a double digit HR guy if he grows a little more power. 

[DocBauer]

No hyperbole, he's a generational "hitter". Period. That includes his contact and OB ability. While he will never be a power hitter...and who cares...it's not surprising that only 25yo and gaining experience, he would be having his highest SLG% at this time. He's just learning now, with his eye and some quality offseason work to add muscle and cut fat...thank you Nellie for helping with that...to turn on pitches he likes to drive the ball further for doubles and a few more HR.

Despite a few bad errors at 3B and 2B here and there, my personal eye test, and a few analytics I've read here and there, take them for what they're worth, says that is defense at 3B and 2B are solid/average. I can live with that. Especially considering youth and bounced around quite a bit, and even being asked to play some LF early, and even a few appearances at SS. His play at 1B has been really fine, IMO,especially learning it on the fly. Let's face it, kid is just a "ballplayer" and if Rocco turned to him tomorrow and said we have nobody to catch the rest of the game and asked him to throw on the mask and pads,  he'd probably say "no problem". 

1B and DH are his best spots. I'd argue he's already solid at 1B and maybe above average, especially with so little time there. And we don't have to debate 3B/2B because really, we're talking about his transcendent offense at the moment.

I don't know how many caught it, but there was a day game on MLB last week featuring the Twins. I believe it was against the Dirty Sox. They put up a graphic of PLAYER "A" and PLAYER"B" through 319 ML games. IIRC, stolen bases was not included, but everything from AVG to OB to SLG and RBI and R and OPS was included. Player "A" was ahead in almost every category except HR, but all the numbers were very close. Player "A" was Arraez and player "B" was Carew. Again, through 319 games and it wasn't intended as an Areaez vs Carew career comparison, that would just be silly. But it was posted as an example of just how good and unique Arraez is at this point in his young career.

I have stated many, many times how the DH spot in baseball can be handled in a myriad of different ways. There is no written or un-written rule that states the DH position should/must be handled by a power only hitter, or an aging veteran who can't play the field any longer but can hit. Or some combination of the two. That's a perception based solely on past usage and viewership of the spot. The Twins won their 1st WS with the DH being shared. They won their 2nd with a primary DH. There are no set rules.

Arraez CAN play the field in 3 spots and aquit himself decently, if not well. (All debatable. I get that). But he can also be a time share/primary DH. With the way this team is set up in the lineup for the next few years, he's PERFECT just being the player he is.

Now we can debate as to whether he should bat leadoff even against LHP, knowing the first guy out of the pen might be RH, or if he should be lower in the lineup against a LHSP waiting for the oppositions pen, or sit as a destructive PH Godzilla batter on some days. But he is a very, very special hitter at 25yo and is only going to get better.

Anyone notice that his knees are better after his offseason workouts with Cruz where he cut bad weight and added some good muscle?

He is an ABSOLUTE offfseason extension MUST!

[Minny505]

When adjusting for the league average, which is portrayed in baseball statistics by adding a + to the end of a stat. 

So, OPS+ indicates a players OPS compared to the rest of the league that season.

Right now Arraez has a BA+ of 147. That is equal to the BA+ that Ted Williams had in 1941 when he hit .406. 

Essentially, Luis Arraez would be hitting .400 right now if he played in 1941. That's amazing!

He is having the best batting everage season we have seen since 1958. 

There are many analysts of the Fangraphs/Statcast ilk that are watching to see if Arraez can keep this up to match, or surpass, the greatest batting average season in MLB history. 

How fun would if be if he breaks that record at season's end!? Twins broadcast team needs to be making a big deal of this. He's chasing a 64 year old BA record!!!

[Steve Lein]

17 hours ago, Trov said:

  I will always remember in his rookie year pinch hitting after a 0-2 count when the hitter got hurt swinging.  He managed to work a walk.  That is just crazy, coming off the bench, with 0 chance of mistake and he works a walk.  

That at-bat was also against Edwin Diaz, and he was throwing 100 MPH heat (10 of the 11 pitches were 98+, other was a 92 MPH slider). Incredible to come in so abruptly and cold like that, and do what he did.

[Blyleven2011]

Major leaguer ( arrreaz  ) is so fun to watch at hitting and at first base  .... 

Great team-mate who will play anywhere  if you ask him because he loves this game ...

Yes he deserves  an extended contract  , sign the major leaguer 

[Unwinder]

Remember during the offseason how people here kept projecting that Austin Martin was going to become "better Arraez"?

No offense to Martin, but it doesn't appear likely that anyone's going to be better than Arraez at being Arraez anytime soon.