3 Controllable Relievers to Target in Trade

[Nash Walker]

We’ve heard about the relief rentals, who will likely be available at the August 2nd deadline. What if the Twins change their ways and shoot for a controllable reliever or someone under control beyond 2022? Here are three who make sense.

RHP Dennis Santana, Texas Rangers
Dennis Santana, 26, is enjoying a breakout season for the Rangers. Traded at the 2021 deadline, Santana had posted a horrifying 6.42 ERA in 40 2/3 innings as a member of the Dodgers. They DFA’ed him and then dealt him to Texas, where he’s finally learned to harness his now upper-90s fastball. Santana, 26, owns a 2.41 ERA in 33 2/3 innings, mostly setting up for a solid Rangers bullpen. Santana’s walk rate is below 7%, a career-low, and he’s throwing harder than ever. Santana is a master at limiting hard contact and has yet to allow a homer in 2022. 

Santana has held righties to a measly .190 average and .476 OPS. Lefties haven’t fared much better, hitting .182 with a .510 OPS. Working primarily with a mid-90s turbo sinker and a hard, swing-and-miss slider, Santana induces a ton of groundballs. He just turned 26 and is under team control through 2025. The Rangers have expressed a desire to hold onto their young players, but if the right package of prospects comes along, it’s unlikely they’d cling too hard to the flier they took on Santana last summer. 

RHP Tanner Rainey, Washington Nationals
Things haven’t gone well for the Nationals. They’re likely to sell, and it’s fair to wonder when they’ll compete again. Their current closer, Tanner Rainey, seems like a prime trade candidate. Rainey, 29, started his season with eight scoreless outings. He’s allowed 11 runs in 20 innings since, coughing up five homers in the process. The surface numbers don’t pop out for Rainey, who owns a 5.52 career ERA, but there are reasons for hope. His fastball averages just under 97 MPH with a high spin rate, and righties have whiffed on 56% of swings on his slider. His stuff is nasty, evidenced by nearly 13 strikeouts per nine innings in his career. 

Rainey is under team control through 2025, so if the Twins can help clean up his 11% walk rate, there’s long-term value here. He has closing experience, is right-handed, and would fit nicely alongside Jhoan Duran. Rainey isn’t a surefire bet to pay off, and his results are lukewarm, but he has a great arm and would likely cost less than Santana or someone like Jorge López. The question is whether he can be trusted more than Tyler Duffey or Trevor Megill. Even if the answer is no, the Twins could use any bullpen help they can get. 

RHP Alexis Díaz, Cincinnati Reds
Drafted in the 12th round in 2015, Alexis Díaz settled into a relief role in the Reds’ Minor League system, working his way up to a set-up role in the 2022 Major League bullpen. Díaz, 25, has a 2.32 ERA on the season, holding opponents to a .506 OPS in 31 innings. He’s walked too many, but Díaz is a prototypical late-inning reliever, just like his brother Edwin. Díaz throws a mid-90s fastball with a great slider. and right-handed hitters are 5-for-52 (.096) with one extra-base hit against him. 

The Twins and Reds worked out a trade post-lockout, and rumors are that the sides have been in contact about Luis Castillo. Díaz is a rookie and under control through 2027, so the Reds may be disinclined to trade him now. It’s fun to dream of a scenario where the Twins acquire Castillo and Díaz in the same deal, bolstering two units at once. That trade would likely cost multiple top prospects, especially since Castillo is one of the only frontline starters known to be available. 

The Bottom Line
The most likely route for the Twins is a trade or two for a rental reliever. It may benefit them, though, to explore deals for players under contract beyond 2022. The bullpen picture is murky, and controllable relievers could give the Twins the luxury of keeping Matt Canterino, Josh Winder, and other top-pitching prospects as starters. Of course, that could come at a more significant cost. 

What do you think? Comment below!

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[Karbo]

Face it, the twins are going to loose some "pipeline" prospects in any type of trade for a desirable pitcher. The question I ask is; How good of prospect(s) for what quality/quantity return. The only other choice they have (if they intend to win this year) is to take these prospects and put them in the pen to get their work in up here. Not an optimal situation either way. Like I've said in previous posts IMO look at the guys that will need to be protected for the rule 5 draft and start thinning the herd a bit so we don't lose someone with real potential for nothing!

[Blyleven2011]

We need help in pitching there is no denying it and our FO has not done very good in the trades they have made since they have taken over ...

do I expect them to go out and get the best relievers out there so we can hopefully cruise to the playoffs  and win one , NO ....

CORREA was a free agent  signing and lightning only strike once in the same place .... so they add a hitter with great defense and avoid signing any quality  bullpen help  , but trade away a relief pitcher at the start of the season  and really that trade hasn't panned out for us but definitely helped San Diego   ...

There is help to be traded for but the cost is going to to be high to contend ...

Will they spend on quality that is the question  ???? ....

NO MORE DISAPPOINTMENTS , PLEASE  

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We need help in pitching there is no denying it and our FO has not done very good in the trades they have made since they have taken over ...

Kenta Maeda trade seems to have turned out alright. Sonny Gray has been pretty solid. Celestino came over in trade. As did Duran. Jorge Alcala also brought in via trade. Joe Ryan seems to be a decent little trade acquisition. Odo turned out pretty well, and they even have the prospect they gave up for him back in their system. They brought in Devin Smeltzer via trade. Sanchez and Urshela have been solid pieces to this team that they brought in with a trade. And those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head.

[RJA]

Interesting article.  You really dug deep into the potential trade pool.  Thank you for that.  For me, trading for relievers with several years of control is not a good idea, especially for relievers having "breakout" years, as the chance of regression can be pretty high.  But, I like the guys you have identified and they are not among the run of the mill names that are being discussed ad nauseam.  For me, it depends on the cost.  If one of these guys could be obtained at a decent cost, I would be all for it.  But relievers are too hit and miss for me to support paying too much for them.  I would prefer our prospects being used to acquire top quality starting pitching, and we look at expiring contract relievers to fix the bullpen.  However, if the price is right on these guys, I would definitely consider it.  Good work!

[TwinsDr2021]

51 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Kenta Maeda trade seems to have turned out alright. Sonny Gray has been pretty solid. Celestino came over in trade. As did Duran. Jorge Alcala also brought in via trade. Joe Ryan seems to be a decent little trade acquisition. Odo turned out pretty well, and they even have the prospect they gave up for him back in their system. They brought in Devin Smeltzer via trade. Sanchez and Urshela have been solid pieces to this team that they brought in with a trade. And those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head.

I agree with the first two you mentioned (Maeda and Gray) and Odo, all three were trades prior to the season. Both Maeda and Odo had 1 really good year (Odo had a second decent year) and Gray is on his way to a good to better first year here. I will say great trades.

Celestino, Duran, Alcala, Ryan and Smeltzer were all trades that traded away a vet for minor league guys and have also have been great, you could argue the Pressly trade, but not important. The Donaldson trade for the other two plus Correa is a push at best since Donaldson is on pace for a 4+ WAR, but also could be argued it was really good.

So they are been good at trading no doubt, especially acquiring other peoples minor league talent. But were they have fallen short is trading to help the team in season. Just my thoughts.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with the first two you mentioned (Maeda and Gray) and Odo, all three were trades prior to the season. Both Maeda and Odo had 1 really good year (Odo had a second decent year) and Gray is on his way to a good to better first year here. I will say great trades.

Celestino, Duran, Alcala, Ryan and Smeltzer were all trades that traded away a vet for minor league guys and have also have been great, you could argue the Pressly trade, but not important. The Donaldson trade for the other two plus Correa is a push at best since Donaldson is on pace for a 4+ WAR, but also could be argued it was really good.

So they are been good at trading no doubt, especially acquiring other peoples minor league talent. But were they have fallen short is trading to help the team in season. Just my thoughts.

I agree with that. They have not made any "win now" trades at the deadline that have helped them "win now." At least none pop to mind quickly. Based on the trades they've made in general, though, I trust their ability to make good trades. I hope to see them make some quality "win now" trades over the next few weeks.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Face it, the twins are going to loose some "pipeline" prospects in any type of trade for a desirable pitcher. The question I ask is; How good of prospect(s) for what quality/quantity return. The only other choice they have (if they intend to win this year) is to take these prospects and put them in the pen to get their work in up here. Not an optimal situation either way. Like I've said in previous posts IMO look at the guys that will need to be protected for the rule 5 draft and start thinning the herd a bit so we don't lose someone with real potential for nothing!

Very good point, hording prospect will result in rule 5 draft problems. Wether FO believe that this is the year to invest & compete or not, this is the year to go for it. Very unlikely PIT will trade Bednar unless they get a very good price and PIT is long gone from a chance to get to the post season. All these teams & RPs you mention are in the same boat, They aren't going to let any of their promising young closer go unless they a big return. There might be an in between converted SP that have less control but yet isn't a rental, Diaz could posssible fit in this possiblity. Yet IMO this FO would be looking for a rental hoping that Pagan will eventually fill that role. Not that I agree.

[James]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Kenta Maeda trade seems to have turned out alright. Sonny Gray has been pretty solid. Celestino came over in trade. As did Duran. Jorge Alcala also brought in via trade. Joe Ryan seems to be a decent little trade acquisition. Odo turned out pretty well, and they even have the prospect they gave up for him back in their system. They brought in Devin Smeltzer via trade. Sanchez and Urshela have been solid pieces to this team that they brought in with a trade. And those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head.

But...

[DocBauer]

I'm not opposed to spending more and getting an arm or two that have control though I am also a bit leary on new "breakouts". 

But would just like to point out that trading for a rental doesn't mean there can't be mutual interest and a re-signing. The Romo and Dyson trades cost little in 2019 and while Dyson ended up being hurt and didn't help, both additions were smart moves. And Romo was really nice to have around in 2020. If Dyson had been healthy and not a head case, (which nobody knew until after the fact), they might have gone 2 for 2.

Help is needed, however it comes. Just reminding that being a rental arm isn't a bad thing, and doesn't mean they wouldn't be back.

[Linus]

I think this is the proper path. Get quality help that is more than a rental. Solve a problem for good otherwise we are playing this same game next year. I really disagree with the notion that you can’t invest in relievers because they are too volatile. The samples are smaller so you will experience some swings but to avoid any pitcher with potential is the strategy that is playing out in front of our eyes. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with the first two you mentioned (Maeda and Gray) and Odo, all three were trades prior to the season. Both Maeda and Odo had 1 really good year (Odo had a second decent year) and Gray is on his way to a good to better first year here. I will say great trades.

Celestino, Duran, Alcala, Ryan and Smeltzer were all trades that traded away a vet for minor league guys and have also have been great, you could argue the Pressly trade, but not important. The Donaldson trade for the other two plus Correa is a push at best since Donaldson is on pace for a 4+ WAR, but also could be argued it was really good.

So they are been good at trading no doubt, especially acquiring other peoples minor league talent. But were they have fallen short is trading to help the team in season. Just my thoughts.

BB Reference has Donaldson at exactly 2 WAR and Fangraphs only 1 WAR.    Donaldsons wRC+ is 105 and his OPS is 714 so I don't see how that equates to 4 WAR.  Urshela's wRC+ is 110 and his OPS is 728.  BB Reference has him at 1.1 WAR.  Urshela has 35 RBI and Dnaldson has 33.  Does anyone know the differences in their calculations that could account for such a large variance between BB Reference and Fangraphs?

[Trov]

In terms of Santana I am not a fan of trading for a pen arm on a break out season.  Unless you can really see where the change was that made the difference and believe it is sustainable.  I mean how many times have we seen someone like say Duffy look like they are on the verge of being dominate relief guy only to struggle again.  Someone that has long history of poor pitching to suddenly break out I have a huge red flag on and would not give up much for him.  I am always willing to take fliers on guys, but giving up much from one is a huge risk.  You need to be really certain they will maintain. 

[h2oface]

I wanted David Robertson, who the Cubs signed and is having a fine comeback after injury year, to be signed as a free agent after I saw him pitch last summer in the Olympics. Now he will cost some prospects instead of just $ to get him from the Cubs.

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

I think this is the proper path. Get quality help that is more than a rental. Solve a problem for good otherwise we are playing this same game next year. I really disagree with the notion that you can’t invest in relievers because they are too volatile. The samples are smaller so you will experience some swings but to avoid any pitcher with potential is the strategy that is playing out in front of our eyes. 

Absolutely NOT disagreeing with your thoughts on the matter. As I stated above, I'm OK with a couple additions and one or both having control.

But to re-state, any short term rentals can also be re-signed if they look good and seem to "fit in" with the team. Further, rentals will cost a little less to acquire. Additionally, there may be an arm or two ready for the pen next season such as Alcala and maybe Sands or Canterino transitioning, for example. And if the FO starts taking the pen more seriously, there may be a FA or two to consider next offseason as well. That just costs a contract. 

So just saying, NOT getting Additional control is not necessarily a bad thing as far as next season is concerned, providing more flexibility, as long as the FO doesn't remain passive.

[MTV]

Twins shouldn’t try for relievers with control out of 2024. Simple as that. They’d require too high of a prospect return and risk of decline is too high. Chase after relievers with limited years of control for a cheaper price, especially Veterans. The Twins have room to give up some mid-level prospects due for next year, like Drew Strotman, Blayne Enlow, Aaron Sabato, Ronny Henriquez, etc. without risking the future ahead.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

BB Reference has Donaldson at exactly 2 WAR and Fangraphs only 1 WAR.    Donaldsons wRC+ is 105 and his OPS is 714 so I don't see how that equates to 4 WAR.  Urshela's wRC+ is 110 and his OPS is 728.  BB Reference has him at 1.1 WAR.  Urshela has 35 RBI and Dnaldson has 33.  Does anyone know the differences in their calculations that could account for such a large variance between BB Reference and Fangraphs?

Don't have an answer for your question. I was going off of BB Reference, doubling Donaldson's WAR since he is likely to play 67 games the rest of the year. Sanchez WAR is .6, Gio is 1.0, and Garver is .4.

 

[TopGunn#22]

I would be inclined to make a deal with the Reds and swing for the fences with a Castillo & Diaz pairing.  I'm not so interested in 37 year old guys like Robertson.  I want to deal for assets I can build around.  Castillo and Diaz fit that profile.

I'd have to go to MLB Trade Values to see what a deal could look like, but I think it would need to start with 2 of Martin, Ober or Miranda. (possibly a Larnach).  That's a lot.  But Castillo and Diaz would be foundational pieces to build from.  Castillo fronts our rotation and Diaz pairs with Duran to form a young, flame throwing back end.  

[TopGunn#22]

So here's your possible trade:

Twins Get:  Castillo 38.5 and Diaz 2.9 = 41.40

Reds Get:  Larnach 28.5 and Ober 15.1 = 43.70

The Twins MUST over-pay slightly to win the Castillo sweepstakes.  The Dodgers and others will be lurking.  Castillo and Diaz significantly shore up two needy areas...a true Ace to open a playoff series and lead the rotation the rest of the way, and a good, young controllable arm for the bullpen.

Larnach gives the Reds a Jesse Winker type bat which they desperately need.  Ober replaces Castillo in the Reds rotation as a young, controllable arm for years to come.  

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

So here's your possible trade:

Twins Get:  Castillo 38.5 and Diaz 2.9 = 41.40

Reds Get:  Larnach 28.5 and Ober 15.1 = 43.70

The Twins MUST over-pay slightly to win the Castillo sweepstakes.  The Dodgers and others will be lurking.  Castillo and Diaz significantly shore up two needy areas...a true Ace to open a playoff series and lead the rotation the rest of the way, and a good, young controllable arm for the bullpen.

Larnach gives the Reds a Jesse Winker type bat which they desperately need.  Ober replaces Castillo in the Reds rotation as a young, controllable arm for years to come.  

I'd do this trade in a NY minute. I think the Reds are looking for more and younger talent.

More like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Spencer Steer, Matt Canterino & Jordan Balazovic gets it done.

These 4 prospects have a trade value of 44.7, but to get these 2 pitchers from the Reds will cost big time, and given our Correa year in 2022, these 2 pitchers give us a chance to win in the playoffs. I say try to win now. All 4 of the above prospects might be great players, but they won't be on the 26 man roster this year.

I'd also like to see another solid back end of the bullpen signing.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Don't have an answer for your question. I was going off of BB Reference, doubling Donaldson's WAR since he is likely to play 67 games the rest of the year. Sanchez WAR is .6, Gio is 1.0, and Garver is .4.

 

I understood your calculation.  The point is that Fangraphs has Donaldson's WAR at 1 instead of 2.  Why should we just accept BB Reference's estimate when Fangraphs is very different?  A 105 WRC+ and a 714 OPS with a 228 average does not sound like a 4 WAR player to me, not even close.  That's why I asked if anyone had any insight into the difference between BB Reference and Fangraphs.  I thought it was possible an article has been written on the subject.

The swap for Urshela has worked out just fine.  They wanted to bridge the gap to Miranda and Urshela has worked out fine.  There is a good chance they will get some trade value for Urshela at the deadline or this off-season.  What I did not want next year is a 37 1/2 y/o Donaldson making $20M plus an option we would need to buyout in 2024 for $8M.  Donaldson's OPS over the past 3 1/2 years has gone 900 / 842 / 827 to 714 this year.  Who would you bet will have the higher OPS or wRC+ next year, Miranda or Donaldson?  Plus, we have $20M to invest in free agents.  

[TwinsDr2021]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I understood your calculation.  The point is that Fangraphs has Donaldson's WAR at 1 instead of 2.  Why should we just accept BB Reference's estimate when Fangraphs is very different?  A 105 WRC+ and a 714 OPS with a 228 average does not sound like a 4 WAR player to me, not even close.  That's why I asked if anyone had any insight into the difference between BB Reference and Fangraphs.  I thought it was possible an article has been written on the subject.

The swap for Urshela has worked out just fine.  They wanted to bridge the gap to Miranda and Urshela has worked out fine.  There is a good chance they will get some trade value for Urshela at the deadline or this off-season.  What I did not want next year is a 37 1/2 y/o Donaldson making $20M plus an option we would need to buyout in 2024 for $8M.  Donaldson's OPS over the past 3 1/2 years has gone 900 / 842 / 827 to 714 this year.  Who would you bet will have the higher OPS or wRC+ next year, Miranda or Donaldson?  Plus, we have $20M to invest in free agents.  

wasn't really trying to say it was or wasn't a bad/good/great trade, and in IMO it was a push as of now, but others could argue different and be right. I was just pointing out it was an off season trade and this FO has done pretty darn good with off season trades in general even if this one isn't an obvious win right now (It will look better next year I would guess unless Donaldson finds a fountain of youth). My point was they haven't done a in season trade to better the team, yet that has been great.

Best I could find - Baseball Reference's WAR (bWAR) focuses more on the outcomes of a game while FanGraphs is known for valuing the peripherals more

[PatPfund]

The Twins bullpen is ragged, but...

Prices are inflated by desperation in mid-season....

The team has shown they can already win the division even if they make no moves....

A reliever or two as the only midseason adds might pad a division lead, but is not good enough to win a playoff series from the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Tampa (our most likely opponents)....

....so the only thing worth trading a top prospect for is a #1 or #2 level pitcher. Castillo, a healthy Montas, and likely several more who might become available as teams fade in the next couple weeks. Only that will make a major difference in the postseason, and only success in the postseason this year is worth paying the inflated prices at the trade deadline.

Then sure, add relievers, but don't send out top prospects for somebody not even good enough to start. Take the three named here. Maybe the best one (Santana) was available for a DFA claim one year ago. The second (Rainey) is 29 with a career ERA of 5.5+. The third has control issues (great name, Diaz, but a Moran by any other name...). Why would we want multiple years of that?

Relievers are notoriously up and down in their careers. (Like Minaya; almost free to us last year, he helped save the bullpen last season, and this year.... he's mediocre to bad.) Get a top starter instead, or trade a couple fungible assets (like Strotman) for a couple fungible arms, and enjoy the solid comeback season with hopes they can be even better next year.

 

[big dog]

When will the first big trade (Twins or anyone) happen? Gotta think the All-Star break is going to have some significant news. Will anything happen before then?

Someone set up a betting line here and let's get some action going...