Week in Review: Pitching Plunge

[Nick Nelson]

In the first full week following the abrupt departure of their pitching coach, the Minnesota Twins saw their pitching results spiral in a nearly staff-wide implosion, with leads repeatedly evaporating. 

The result was another unfulfilling .500 week that felt like it should have been much more.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/4 through Sun, 7/10
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 48-40)
Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +50)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 83 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Buxton, Arraez Key 10th-Inning Win
Game 84 | MIN 8, CWS 2: Offense Bashes 5 Homers in Blowout
Game 85 | CWS 9, MIN 8: Twins Walked Off in Wild Series Finale
Game 86 | TEX 6, MIN 5: 6-Run 5th Inning Sinks Twins in Texas
Game 87 | TEX 9, MIN 7: Arms Can't Back Up Offensive Flurry
Game 88 | MIN 6, TEX 5: Twins Finally Squeak Out a Close One

NEWS & NOTES

It seemed noteworthy when the Twins decided to bring Josh Winder on their latest road trip as a member of the taxi squad, bypassing his scheduled start for the Saints. Sure enough, Winder stepped in to start against the White Sox on Tuesday with Chris Archer going on the injured list.

Archer's ailment was described as "left hip tightness" but it sounds like mostly a maintenance break for the oft-injured starter. He figures to return just after the All-Star break.

Elsewhere on the pitching staff, Trevor Megill was activated from IL and swapped in for Juan Minaya, who cleared waivers and was outrighted to St. Paul. Minaya follows Tyler Thornburg, who did the same to make room for Minaya just days earlier. The bullpen continues to be a revolving door as fans impatiently await a more impactful deadline addition.

Last Monday, Miguel Sanó officially kicked off a rehab stint in Florida as he progresses toward a return from knee surgery. Sanó launched a pair of home runs on Saturday night for the FCL Twins – a promising sign even if against rookie-league competition. He's probably a couple of weeks away from returning to the Twins, and it'll be interesting to see how they work him back into the mix with a suddenly crowded (and highly productive) offensive group.

HIGHLIGHTS

The offense was clicking all week, scoring five or more runs in all six games thanks to a power-hitting onslaught that included 15 home runs and 12 doubles among 63 total hits. Plenty of contributors got in on the action, with these standout performances leading the way:

• Jorge Polanco launched three home runs and drove in six. He's slugging .600 with five bombs in 11 games since coming off the injured list. Safe to say his back his feeling better. Polanco is also showing a keen eye at the plate, with seven walks drawn in 28 plate appearances over the past week.
• Luis Arraez kept on plugging away, finishing 10-for-25 (.400) even with an 0-fer in Sunday's series finale against the Rangers. His batting average continues to hover around the .350 mark, leading all of baseball. He was named an All-Star reserve on Monday alongside Byron Buxton.
• Max Kepler, now routinely appearing in the cleanup spot against right-handed pitchers, went 8-for-25 with a home run. Batting .244, Kepler is characteristically being suppressed by a low BABIP (albeit not as bad as in many years past), but he's offsetting it somewhat with much improved patience – his 13.2% BB rate is a career-high and at the high end of all MLB hitters – fueling a .350 on-base percentage. 
• José Miranda continues to prove he belongs in the majors, and now looks more locked in than ever. He went 6-for-18 with two homers and seven RBIs, delivering multiple big hits in key spots. He struck out only once all week and has a 5-to-4 K/BB ratio in his past 20 contests, reflecting the improved discipline that's helped him turn around his offensive game. 

The Twins continue to solidify their elite standing as an offensive unit, with a team OPS+ ranking second in baseball behind only the Yankees. It's fitting, then, that their two All-Stars are the primary catalysts in the lineup – Buxton with his spectacular clutch power and Arraez with his unrivaled on-base skills and consistency. Seeing them receive this honor for the first time made for a special moment, especially because both players are so incredibly likable.

LOWLIGHTS

With all those runs coming across the plate, the offense certainly deserved better than a 3-3 week. Unfortunately, a rapidly unraveling pitching staff simply was not up to the task.

The bullpen was a mess, coughing up leads repeatedly. That's nothing new, although Jhoan Duran being part of those woes rather than the exception was an unwelcome twist. He took the loss on Saturday night, yielding two runs on three hits and a walk in the eighth inning. He then put Sunday's win at risk, surrendering a (Gilberto Celestino-aided) home run to cut Minnesota's lead to one. 

Perhaps even more concerning than the bullpen's continued failures, which the Twins have managed to overcome in maintaining a sizable division lead, is the downturn of the rotation. Previously a source of stability, starters are beginning to see their fortunes shift for the worse.

In some cases, this was more or less expected. Devin Smeltzer was clearly over-performing in his first several turns, and now his luck is catching up with a major HR regression. On Saturday he was taken deep three times for a second consecutive start. 

Joe Ryan, too, has had the long balls catch up to him in recent weeks. The fly ball pitcher gave up only three home runs in his first eight starts, but has allowed five in his past five starts, including a game-tying two-run blast by Eloy Jimenez in a Wednesday loss that saw Ryan and the relief corps cough up FIVE leads.

But the leading concern in the rotation has to be Sonny Gray, who simply hasn't looked right since returning from a groin injury in mid-June. In five starts since coming back, he has pitched into the sixth inning only once, while barely resembling the dominating force that powered through the first two months. 

In 25 ⅔ innings since the latest IL stint, Gray has notched only 15 strikeouts – including zero on Friday night against the Rangers. This inability to limit contact is leading to longer at-bats, more hits, and a proneness to blow-up innings like the fifth on Friday, where he combined with Caleb Thielbar to turn a 3-0 lead into a 6-3 deficit. 

The Twins gave up one of their best young arms in Chase Petty (who's looking quite good in A-ball, as it happens) on the premise that Gray would bring a veteran edge to this rotation and serve as a relative workhorse among a bunch of young or embattled starters who – for various reasons – can't often be expected to go more than five or six innings. Gray looked like he was on his way to fulfilling that promise early on, but the recent results have been troubling and the outing at Arlington ranks as perhaps his worst of the season. 

They need him to step up. If indeed the groin is still playing some role in his diminished output, perhaps the All-Star break comes at a good time for him.

TRENDING STORYLINE

With one week to go until said break, the Twins have a chance to put the pedal to the metal a bit. They close out the first half with a six-game homestand against a pair of reasonably formidable opponents: the first-place Brewers and the ever-lurking White Sox. 

A strong week would send them into the midsummer hiatus with positive vibes and maybe a little more comfort. If so inclined, the Twins have an opportunity right now to take a step back from their typical "workload management" leanings. With the day off on Monday, followed by a five-day All-Star break next week, and then two days off the following week, Minnesota will have nearly as day off (eight) as on (10) in the next 18.

It's a chance to push a little harder with guys like Buxton, and some of starters and relievers they've been trying to taking it easy on. And that comes at an opportune time as the Twins look to separate themselves a bit more in the division while the trade deadline looms.

LOOKING AHEAD

Six games, six right-handed pitchers on the docket – including one of the best in the biz in Corbin Burnes. To keep the offense rolling, the Twins will likely need left-handed bats like Arraez, Kepler, and Alex Kirilloff to play big roles.

TUESDAY, 7/12: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Jason Alexander v. RHP Josh Winder
WEDNESDAY, 7/13: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Corbin Burnes v. RHP Joe Ryan
THURSDAY, 7/14: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Johnny Cueto v. RHP Sonny Gray
FRIDAY, 7/15: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Michael Kopech v. LHP Devin Smeltzer
SATURDAY, 7/16: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Dylan Bundy
SUNDAY, 7/17: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Cease v. RHP Josh Winder

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[The Mad King]

Starting pitchers can't go deep and relief corps is a mess. If the former could fix itself, the later wouldn't be as big a problem. I wish they would let Jax be a two inning reliever...

[tony&rodney]

The starting pitching has been better than just about anyone expected to this point. Duran and Jax have saved the bullpen, but others have had some decent games too. If Winder can get strong and Ober can return there is some hope for the pitching to recover from this recent spell. The bullpen will need one person to get it together - Derek Falvey must deliver with a couple of trades for relievers. A good starter would help but a couple of relievers are needed.

Hopefully the Twins can close out this last week with some flair, and wins too.

[Rosterman]

40-34. They gave up a lot of runs, but also scored a lot.

You gotta love this game of baseball!

[High heat]

Plunge from the shallow depths they were already at!!!!

 

pitching doesn’t get figured out soon this team won’t make the playoffs!!!

 

Bullpen is the titanic taking on water!!! Duran and Jax pitched well this far but Duran doesn’t have a track record or health.  He maybe a ticking time bomb! 
 

The starters they brought in pitched well to this point but since mid June all the magic is gone and the well has dried. 
 

The 4 and innings and fly on to the bullpen doesn’t work!!!

 

Have to get Atleast 2 bullpen arms.  ASAP maybe Ober comes back and is as good as ever and Winder can continue his recent success.  Bundy isn’t functionable anymore, 4 inning from Archer at best kills the pen and Smeltzer will turn back into the pumpkin here soon.

[Aggies7]

Been watching baseball long enough to know that if the offense finally got going, the starting pitching would struggle. Starters had an ERA over 7 on this road trip

[mikelink45]

Thank you for the realism you bring to your reports

[jorgenswest]

I think Duffey had 4 relief appearances without giving up a run. He certainly was helpful in the three wins. That has to be a highlight.

Bundy had the best start of the week against the White Sox and the best start of the Rangers series.

I am thankful both are still on the roster.

[bighat]

Thanks for the writeup, Nick. I was worried this was going to be one of those "Twins are solidly plugging along with a 3-3 road trip".

The Twins held the lead late in most of the games and were at least tied in the 8th or later in all games. The offense made some miraculous recoveries and some incredibly inspiring comebacks, only to have all momentum immediately stuffed into a locker by the bullpen's ineptitude.

A team with even a subpar bullpen goes 5-1 last week, an average bullpen probably nets you a 6-0 week. Throw in last Sunday's loss to the Sox and they should be on a 7-game win streak.  Instead they're 3-4 over their last 7. Just brutal.

This is the worst bullpen I've ever seen in Minnesota, they are absolutely killing this team. Not to mention we've got fringe guys like Bundy, Smelzer, and Archer starting half the games for the Twins, pitching is just a nightmare.

And where the hell's Bailey Ober? Did he get whisked off to the gulag in Siberia along with Alcala? Good lord.

[Riverbrian]

A long time ago... Someone walked through the Big Lake Minnesota Area and said "That Lake is Big... Let's call it Big Lake". 

Whoever named it BIG lake obviously hadn't seen a larger lake or they got really excited and lost perspective at the moment. 

In the past 30 days: The Twins are ranked 10th in team ERA with a 3.65 

Year to date the Twins are ranked 11th in Team ERA with a 3.78

Last Year the Twins were ranked 26th with a 4.83

Yet... Every morning... our pitching staff is horrible, brutal, a nightmare. If these are your adjectives... you shouldn't be allowed to name any lakes. 

[Thebigalguy]

Inconsistency is the hobgoblin. Yes, Duran gave up a homer, and the ball was smacked hard, but it landed in the glove of Celestino and should have been a long out. Duffy has looked better lately. Even so, giving up numerous leads like they did in Texas is unacceptable. (Or is everything bigger in Texas?) The preposterous thing is that they split 6 games and still gained 2.5 on Cleveland. Lucky us to be in the Central division. As for offense, am I the only one worrying about Buck's average, which is again approaching the Mendoza line?

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Jorge Alcala would sure be a welcome back "addition"

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

This is hoping that Sonny gets back to his old self.  I know trades are supposed to work both ways but I sure hope we do not regret trading Chase.  Make us win this trade Sonny!!!

[DocBauer]

I don't want to play the "overly optomistic" card, but Ryan is, for all intents and purposes, a rookie. He's doing really well, but a couple speed bumps shouldn't be unexpected. And it also would be unexpected to see him start to pitch much better again soon. He's a pretty savvy kid.

Agree Gray just hasn't been the same. Days off and the break could do wonders to get him righted again. And let's hope so as we really need him.

I like Smeltzer a lot as a person/story and a wiley LH. I think he's better than his last couple of starts, but not as good as his first 5-6. But he might be perfect as a mid/long/piggyback arm in the pen and just keep Winder in the rotation.

The pen is what it is until re-inforcements arrive. And there should be a couple by the end of the month. A healthy Alcala would be a huge boost as well. Duffey's time as a Twin may be coming to an end, but he's experienced and savvy enough he might just finish off this season as a solid middle guy.

The offense deserves better. 

Should have swept the Dirty Sox, but will always take 2 of 3 in any series. Was very disappointed in losing a pair to the Rangers. They do have some real talent, but I just think we're the better team.

Need to finish strong before the break.

[DocBauer]

Part 2, as I had to pause to fix a late supper, LOL.

1] Congratulations to Buxton and Arraez and their very deserving All Star selections!

2] Miranda is just getting better and better, confirming his top prospect status and proving he is turning out to be the kind of hitter the FO thought he might be, and proving 2021's breakout was not an illusion. More on him in a minute.

3] Very surprised Kirilloff wasn't mentioned in the OP, unless I missed him somehow. The kid has basically been raking since coming back. His 30 game, 15 game, and 7 day numbers are all trending very high. And more on him in a moment.

4] I'm OK with Max in the 4 hole against RHP. While his BABIP is still frustratingly and confusingly low, it's still better. His hitting is about normal, which would seem to indicate actual improvement with offensive numbers still generally down. (Though it does appear numbers have been climbing). He's actually having a pretty good year.

5] Despite lauding Kepler, and no disrespect to one of my favorite Twins, by next season at the latest, he's going to be sliding down more in to later portion of the lineup to make room for AK, Miranda, and maybe even below Larnach who I think will turn out to be the even better overall hitter. We've already seen what he can do last year and this year when healthy. I think he surpasses Kepler very soon.

6] Sure hope this trend continues...crossing fingers...but Jeffers has been hitting a rough compsite of .300 with power and decent OB his past 15 games.